What to Expect At The Next OPEC+ Meeting in Algiers and the American Threat

The next OPEC+ meeting in Algiers on September 23 comes at a critical time with a trade war in affect, Iran sanctions about to come on and the U.S. sitting just under record productions and exports. All eyes are on Russia and Saudi Arabia and of course US Production.

The next OPEC+ meeting in Algiers on September 23 comes at a critical time with a trade war in affect, Iran sanctions about to come on and the U.S. sitting just under record productions and exports. All eyes are on Russia and Saudi Arabia and of course US Production.

OPEC v Shale

On September 23, the 10th meeting of the OPEC+ ministerial committee will be held in Algiers. The ministerial meetings of the committee are held every other month since the beginning of 2017, when the agreement on the reduction of oil production came into effect. The function of the committee is to recommend measures for joint regulation of the oil market to OPEC+ countries.

Sixteen countries have been invited to the meeting of the ministerial monitoring committee of OPEC + to be held in Algiers on September 23, a source in one of the delegations told TASS. The source added that the meeting may become the biggest in the number of participants in the history of the committee. “In total 16 countries have been invited, the meeting will be held in the format of mini OPEC.

“Only Ecuador and Equatorial Guinea will not come to the meeting,” he said. It is not clear if Iran will take part in the meeting of the committee. The ministerial monitoring committee includes six countries – Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Algeria and Oman.

Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak has reaffirmed his countries view on increasing production. He told reporters on Monday. “I think that we have an opportunity to discuss any scenarios for the development of the situation, we need to look at the situation and the most expedient actions” .

Novak makes a point of the success of the existing deal and Russia’s compliance thereto. He said “In August, our performance was 108%. That is, we did not even fully restore production. We will discuss this situation and see what happens with the projected supply volumes in the Q4 and demand, taking into account the OPEC+ agreement, but also countries that are not part of the agreement,” 

Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday that they are ok with oil at $80 (referring to Brent) and speculators quickly pushed it that way. Mind you the story jsust said they were ok with it not wanted it there. The point to take out is Russia is talking about production, Saudi’s are talking about price.

The TASS source also said that the meeting of experts of the technical committee, scheduled for September 11, which was to discuss the mechanism for distribution of quotas for the recovery of production, had been postponed to September 17.

U.S. Oil Production and OPEC

To keep it real the latest EIA report had the U.S. producing back at record highs of 11 mbpd, and we look at the pattern of U.S. exports and also imports from OPEC.

Charts via @ronh999

At the last meeting in Vienna in June, the committee recommended softening existing restrictions and raising production by 1 million barrels per day due to the decline in production in countries such as Iran, Venezuela, Mexico and Libya. In July, the oil production cut agreement was fulfilled by 109% of the plan. In June, the ministers agreed on the increase in production in general but did not agree on quotas of oil production recovery for specific countries recovery quotas, since not all the countries participating in the agreement have free capacities for production growth. 

Source: TASS, Reuters. RonH Energy

From The TradersCommunity Research Desk

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