Weak Domestic Demand for U.S. 20-year Treasury Bond Auction Ahead of FOMC

U.S. Treasuries were on the lows ahead of the completion of the $12 billion 20-year Treasury bond reopening, which was met with lukewarm domestic demand. The high yield tailed the when-issued yield by 1.3 bps with the bid-to-cover ratio 2.65x. The weak auction helped drive the 30-yr bond back to its low. The desk gave an B rating on the auction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are near the low for the week ahead of FOMC Minutes.

Today’s $12 bln 20-yr bond -1.2 basis point indicative of strong international demand and soft. The desk gave an B rating on the auction.

  • The domestic demand was below its six-month average indicative of softer domestic demand
  • International demand (indirect) was also comfortably above the six-month average
  • Primary dealers were left with just over than 10% versus normal around 14.3%

Auction Highlights

  • Duration: 20 Years
  • Amount:  $12 billion
  • High yield 3.820%
  • WI 3.833%
  • Tail -1.3 BPs. Six-month average of -1.2 basis points
  • bid to cover 2.65x vs six-month average of 2.65X
  • dealers 8.1% vs. six-month average 11.1%
  • Direct 16.6% vs. six-month average of 18.5%
  • Indirects 75.3% vs. six-month average of 70.4%

Auction grade: B

Yields after the auction

  • 2-yr: +4 bps to 3.98%
  • 3-yr: +6 bps to 3.95%
  • 5-yr: +6 bps to 3.75%
  • 10-yr: +9 bps to 3.58%
  • 30-yr: +9 bps to 3.60%

Prior auction results:

  • High yield: 3.380%
  • Bid-to-cover: 2.30
  • Indirect bid: 67.0%
  • Direct bid: 18.3%

Average results of previous 12 auctions:

  • High yield: 2.586%
  • Bid-to-cover: 2.48
  • Indirect bid: 67.0% 
  • Direct bid: 17.0%

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