Weak Demand in 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Auction Following CPI Report

US Treasuries sold off after the completion of today’s $32 billion 10-yr note reopening, which met weaker demand than yesterday’s 3-yr note sale. Today’s reopening drew a high yield of 3.455%, tailing the when-issued yield by two basis points. The bid-to-cover ratio (2.36x) was just below average (2.42x) while indirect takedown (63.0%) was also below average (64.9%). Notably yesterday’s $40 bln 3-yr note sale found stronger interest, the shorter date in line with the bond market risk profile. The desk gave a D rating on the auction.

Earlier today we heard annual inflation cooled for the eighth straight month on a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 5.0%, versus up 6.0% in February. However, core-CPI was up 5.6% year-over-year, versus up 5.5% in February.

The bid to cover 2.36X vs. 12-month average of 2.42X, indirect takedown 62.3% versus 12-month average of 64.9%. The desk gave a D rating on the auction.

Auction Highlights

  • Duration: 10 Years
  • Amount:  $32 billion
  • High yield: 3.455%
  • When-Issued level at the time of the auction 3.435%
  • Tail 2.0 basis points versus six-month average of 0.1 basis points
  • Bid to cover 2.36X vs 12-month average of 2.42X
  • Directs 19.9% vs 12-month average of 18.3%
  • Indirects 62.3% versus 12-month average of 64.9%
  • Dealers 17.1% versus 12-month average of 16.8%

Auction grade: D-

Yields after the auction

  • 2-yr: -3 bps to 4.02%
  • 3-yr: -7 bps to 3.75%
  • 5-yr: -3 bps to 3.53%
  • 10-yr: +2 bps to 3.45%
  • 30-yr: +6 bps to 3.68%

Average results of previous 12 auctions:

  • High yield: 3.384%
  • Bid-to-cover: 2.42
  • Indirect bid: 64.9%
  • Direct bid: 18.3%

Prior auction results:

  • High yield: 3.985%
  • Bid-to-cover: 2.35
  • Indirect bid: 62.3%
  • Direct bid: 20.0%
  • Directs a measure of domestic demand
  • Indirects a measure of international demand
  • Dealers take the balance

Live From the Pit

From The TradersCommunity US News Desk