Wake Up Call – The Day Ahead Jan 7, 2021

Ahead of NFP we look at the different paths of Oil and stock markets after the FOMC minutes. Oil higher overnight as geopolitical threats such as Kazakhstan impact A live recap of what happened while we slept overnight and what lies ahead. We go through charts on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell, Oil and Natural gas. Markets again have eyes on Rates, Open Interest Gamma levels on the S&P 500 and mega stocks like Apple and Tesla on the jobs report.

  • Enjoy live commentary from Our Trading Room at youtube as the day wraps up – feel free to like and share

The markets:

  • S&P Futures vs Fair Value: +8.0
  • WTI crude futures are up 0.7% to $80.05/bbl. Over $79.51 highest level since November 18
  • Natural gas up .014 at 3.865
  • Apple testing $173 after $3 trillion at $182.86
  • U.S. Treasuries yields lower in front of employment data. The 2-yr yield is down one basis point to 0.87%, and the 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 1.72%.
  • GameStop (GME 150.10, +19.07): +14.6% on its turnaround plan to enter NFT and cryptocurrency markets, according to The Wall Street Journal.
  • Royal Dutch Shell announced in its Q4 update that $5.5 bln in proceeds from a divestment in the Permian basin will be redirected to share buybacks.
  • 1 million Omicron cases in the US but the hope is that it will not strain hospitals and will lead to a faster herd immunity.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.21.
  • GDP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest
  • Spot gold is up 1792.10 +3.7
  • Spot silver is up 22.26 +0.04
  • Bitcoin is trading down $42,728, December low at $41,967.50
  • Japan’s Nikkei: UNCH (-1.1% for the week) Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.8% (+0.4% for the week) China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.2% (-1.7% for the week) India’s Sensex: +0.2% (+2.6% for the week) South Korea’s Kospi: +1.2% (-0.8% for the week) Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +1.2% (-0.1% for the week).
  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.3% (-0.2% week-to-date) Germany’s DAX: -0.4% (+0.6% week-to-date) U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.1% (+0.8% week-to-date) France’s CAC 40: -0.3% (+1.1% week-to-date) Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.3% (+1.4% week-to-date) Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.6% (+0.3% week-to-date).

Visit Traders Market Weekly: Traders Market Weekly: Hello There 2022 – TRADERS COMMUNITY for the daily calendar

Data out Today:

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for December, the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report, the Trade Balance for November, Factory Orders for November and EIA Natural gas inventories on Thursday.

Overnight Stories in Depth

  • Eurozone’s November Retail Sales 1.0% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.3%); 7.8% yr/yr (expected 5.6%; last 1.7%). December CPI 0.4% m/m (last 0.4%); 5.0% yr/yr (expected 4.7%; last 4.9%).
  • EU December Core CPI 0.4% m/m (last 0.0%); 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 2.6%). December Business and Consumer Survey 115.3 (expected 116.0; last 117.6)
  • Germany’s November Industrial Production -0.2% m/m (expected 1.0%; last 2.4%). November trade surplus EUR10.90 bln (expected surplus of EUR12.80 bln; last surplus of EUR12.40 bln)
  • U.K.’s December Construction PMI 54.3 (expected 54.0; last 55.5). December Halifax House Price Index 1.1% m/m (last 1.1%); 9.8% yr/yr (last 8.2%)
  • Taiwanese press reported that shipping carriers on the island will increase their cargo prices by up to 20.0%.
  • China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman said that the country’s government will act to help stabilize the stock market this year.

2021 sector performances

Energy (+47.4%) and real estate (+42.3%) up more than 40.0%, followed by the information technology sector (+34.0%) with a 34% gain. The utilities (+13.6%) and consumer staples (+14.7%) sectors are up less than 15.0% this year. 

Within the technology sector, Apple (AAPL 172.12, -0.08, unch) is up 34.3% this year, Microsoft (MSFT 338.85, -0.47, -0.1%) is up 52.6%, and NVIDIA (NVDA 297.00, +1.14, +0.4%) is up a whopping 126.6%. 

  • China’s December Manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expected 50.0; last 50.1) and December Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.7 (expected 52.0; last 52.3)
  • South Korea’s December CPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.4%); 3.7% yr/yr (expected 3.6%; last 3.7%)

New York Fed Index Shows Global Supply Chain Pressures May Have Peaked – TRADERS COMMUNITY

The New York Federal Reserve released a new Index, The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The NY Fed concluded that global supply chain pressures may have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward. The index uses 27 variables that are meant to capture factors that put pressure on the global supply chain, both domestically and internationally.

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Outlook for 2022 – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Welcome to 2022, WTI Oil futures have rallied after OPEC+ holds the status quo. Last week EIA reported US Crude last Week crude drew -3576Kbbl (incl +1055kbbl build at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew -1458kbbl. Utilization fell -.2% to 89.6%. Production +200k to 11,800 kbpd.

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Outlook – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Into New Year and U.S. domestic natural gas demand for heating has weakened   Atmospheric G2 models said that warmer-than-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. should continue to curb heating demand.  Last week EIA reported a draw of -136 Bcf of working gas in storage lower than expected. With the global energy crisis LNG exports continue to grow but we balance supply shortages with deliverability.

Earnings Calendar for Today

Any questions please feel free to ask them below. Trade Smart!

Have a great trading day!

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT FOR SECURITIES, STOCKS, FOREX, CRYPTO FUTURES OR ANY OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT

This information is provided for educational purposes only and is not a direction to buy or sell the instruments discussed. It is imperative before trading you assess your individual risk, the market risk, taxation risk, your counterparties risk and your suitability to engage in any investment of trading financially, mentally or ethically or legally. This warning does not cover all possible risks and is for educational purposes only.

THE NFA in their disclosure statement discusses the characteristics and risks of standardized security futures contracts traded on regulated U.S. exchanges. At present, regulated exchanges are authorized to list futures contracts on individual equity securities registered under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (including common stock and certain exchange-traded funds and American Depositary Receipts), as well as narrow-based security indices. Futures on other
types of securities and options on security futures contracts may be authorized in the future.

It is advised and suggested before trading you read the risk disclosure documents of what and where you intend to trade. We have included the short form from the NFA, this is not to be taken as a be all and end all please continue with your own investigation of the markets or instruments you trade with.

Before trading go to: RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT FOR SECURITY FUTURES CONTRACTS