Wake Up Call – The Day Ahead Jan 3, 2021

Welcome to 2022. Oil and stock markets gapped up overnight only to give it back ahead of NY open. A live recap of what happened while we slept overnight and what lies ahead. We go through charts on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell, Oil and Natural gas. Markets again have eyes on OPEC, Open Interest Gamma levels on the S&P 500 and mega stocks like Apple. Happy New Year!

  • Enjoy live commentary from Our Trading Room at youtube as the day wraps up – feel free to like and share

The markets:

  • S&P Futures vs Fair Value: +4.0 (after being up 24)
  • WTI futures down 1.7%, or $1.28, to $75.71/bbl.
  • Natural gas down -.03 at 3.723 after last week’s selloff.
  • Apple testing near resistance at $178.00
  • The obsession remains the price of Apple for 3 trillion market is $182.86
  • U.S. Treasuries yields higher across the curve. 2-yr: +4 bps to 0.77% 3-yr: +4 bps to 0.99% 5-yr: +4 bps to 1.30% 10-yr: +3 bps to 1.54% 30-yr: +1 bp to 1.92%
  • Tesla (TSLA 1132.99, +76.21, +7.2%) reported a record number of Q4 deliveries.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index is little changed at 95.93.
  • USD/JPY: 115.15 +0.07
  • EUR/USD: 1.1357 -0.00011
  • Spot gold down (1826.80 -1.20)
  • Spot silver down (23.30 -0.06)
  • Bitcoin is trading sideways $47,980
  • Japan’s Nikkei: CLOSED
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.5%
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: CLOSED
  • India’s Sensex: +1.6%
  • South Korea’s Kospi: +0.4%
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: CLOSED.
  • U.K.’s FTSE is closed for New Year’s Day. 
  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%
  • Germany’s DAX: +1.0%
  • France’s CAC 40: +1.2%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.1%
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.7%.

Visit Traders Market Weekly: Traders Market Weekly: Hello There 2022 – TRADERS COMMUNITY for the daily calendar

  • Data out Today:
    • 9:45 ET: December IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 57.8)
    • 10:00 ET: November Construction Spending (consensus 0.6%; prior 0.2%)

Overnight Stories in Depth

  • India’s December Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 55.5 from 57.6.
  • Eurozone’s December Manufacturing PMI fell to 58.0 from 58.4, as expected.
  • Germany’s December Manufacturing PMI remained at 57.4 (expected 57.9).
  • France’s December Manufacturing PMI fell to 55.6 from 55.9 (expected 54.9).
  • Italy’s December Manufacturing PMI fell to 62.0 from 62.8 (expected 61.5).
  • Spain’s December Manufacturing PMI fell to 56.2 from 57.1, as expected.
  • Swiss December procure.ch PMI rose to 62.7 from 62.5 (expected 61.0).

2021 sector performances

Energy (+47.4%) and real estate (+42.3%) up more than 40.0%, followed by the information technology sector (+34.0%) with a 34% gain. The utilities (+13.6%) and consumer staples (+14.7%) sectors are up less than 15.0% this year. 

Within the technology sector, Apple (AAPL 172.12, -0.08, unch) is up 34.3% this year, Microsoft (MSFT 338.85, -0.47, -0.1%) is up 52.6%, and NVIDIA (NVDA 297.00, +1.14, +0.4%) is up a whopping 126.6%. 

  • China’s December Manufacturing PMI 50.3 (expected 50.0; last 50.1) and December Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.7 (expected 52.0; last 52.3)
  • South Korea’s December CPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.4%); 3.7% yr/yr (expected 3.6%; last 3.7%)

China Aims to Guide More Long-Term Foreign Investors into its Treasury Bonds – TRADERS COMMUNITY

The breakdown of the Chinese property market exemplified by the Evergrande crisis coupled with the unknowns of the shadow banking debt rocked China in 2021. China has been responding to these vulnerabilities. A Ministry of Finance official on Wednesday pointed to changes in the Chinese treasury bond market.

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Outlook – TRADERS COMMUNITY

WTI Oil futures have rallied back from the recent dump. Last week EIA reporting US Crude stocks in SPR fell to lowest since Nov 2002. Last Week crude drew -4715Kbbl (incl +1463kbbl build at Cushing). Gasoline stocks grew +5533kbbl. Utilization fell -.2% to 89.6%. Production 100k to 11,600 kbpd.

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Storage Outlook – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Heading into Christmas and cold temperatures around us gas withdrawal season is in swing. While in Europe natural gas futures are back to near all-time highs again US natural gas futures are softer reacting to domestic weather models. Last week EIA reported a draw of -55 Bcf of working gas in storage lower than expected. With the global energy crisis LNG exports continue to grow but we balance supply shortages with deliverability.

Earnings Calendar for Today

Any questions please feel free to ask them below. Trade Smart!

Have a great trading day!

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This information is provided for educational purposes only and is not a direction to buy or sell the instruments discussed. It is imperative before trading you assess your individual risk, the market risk, taxation risk, your counterparties risk and your suitability to engage in any investment of trading financially, mentally or ethically or legally. This warning does not cover all possible risks and is for educational purposes only.

THE NFA in their disclosure statement discusses the characteristics and risks of standardized security futures contracts traded on regulated U.S. exchanges. At present, regulated exchanges are authorized to list futures contracts on individual equity securities registered under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (including common stock and certain exchange-traded funds and American Depositary Receipts), as well as narrow-based security indices. Futures on other
types of securities and options on security futures contracts may be authorized in the future.

It is advised and suggested before trading you read the risk disclosure documents of what and where you intend to trade. We have included the short form from the NFA, this is not to be taken as a be all and end all please continue with your own investigation of the markets or instruments you trade with.

Before trading go to: RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT FOR SECURITY FUTURES CONTRACTS