Wake Up Call – The Day Ahead Dec 15, 2021

A live recap of what happened while we slept overnight and what lies ahead. We go through charts on the S&P 500, Apple, WTI Oil and Natural gas. Markets are subdued after yesterday’s retest of support. More soft data out of China sees oil and copper futures weaker. The markets primed for Fed talk. The FOMC decision and updated projections due at 2:00 p.m. ET today followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET

  • Enjoy live commentary from Our Trading Room at youtube as the day wraps up – feel free to like and share

One key thing to watch after the Fed meeting is how interest rate hike expectations change. At present Fed futures are pricing in 2 hikes next year.

The Fed at today’s FOMC is expected to quicken the taper to $30B per month. With the current pace at $105B, that would get to no bond buying near March and pave the way for tightening(s) assuming all goes well (uncertain).

The Fed will also adjust their dot plot which would likely show tightening twice in 2022 (up toward 0.75% for the Fed funds target) vs near unchanged in the September plot (projected 0.3% from 0.25% in September). The 2023 plot should likewise show a jump. In September it forecast a 1.0% rate. That should move toward 1.5% or so.

Yesterday’s Wrap: Market Wrap – Heading Into The Fed Meeting After Record High Inflation

The markets:

  • WTI futures down 1.1%, or $0.78, to $69.95/bbl ahead of DoE
  • Natural gas -.08 after yesterday’s weaker weather runs crumbled prices
  • Apple hanging around $174.90, up 0.50 from yesterday.
  • The obsession remains the price of Apple for 3 trillion market is $182.86
  • Eli Lilly (LLY 260.00, +10.62) +4.3% after guiding higher for FY21 and FY22. 
  • Lowe’s (LOW 242.35, -10.11) -4.0% reaffirmed below-consensus revenue guidance for FY22 and issuing underwhelming guidance for FY23.
  • Nucor (NUE 117.00, -1.42): -1.2% after issuing downside guidance for Q4. 
  • CMC Materials (CCMC 180.05, +34.08): +23.4% after agreeing to be acquired by Entegris (ENTG 138.99, -4.23, -3.0%) for an enterprise value of roughly $6.5 billion in cash and stock.
  • Yields flat ahead of Fed. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 0.67%, and the 10-yr yield is up one basis point to 1.45%.
  • Spot gold unchanged at $1770.44
  • Spot silver is down $0.08 or -0.37% at $21.84
  • Bitcoin at $47,722, down about $600 from 5 PM price of $48,300
  • In forex the AUD the strongest, CAD weakest
  • Japan’s Nikkei: +0.1%
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.9%
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.4%
  • India’s Sensex: -0.6%
  • South Korea’s Kospi: +0.1%
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%.
  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%
  • Germany’s DAX: +0.3%
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.2%
  • France’s CAC 40: +0.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.4%
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.7%.

Key Stories in Depth

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Outlook – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Outlook – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Chinese Property Developers Caught in Negative Credit Loop Says Moody’s – TRADERS COMMUNITY

US Producer Price Inflation Continue Rising At Record Pace in November – TRADERS COMMUNITY

US Weekly IPO and SPAC Monitor : IoT Cloud Solutions Developer Samsara Leads – TRADERS COMMUNITY

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report December 2021 – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Samsung Top Chipmaker as Semiconductor Market Tops USD150 Billion

Visit Traders Market Weekly: Central Banker Deluge December 10 – 16 2021

for the daily calendar

Earnings Calendar For Today

Earnings BMO

  • $PRM Perimeter Solutions $HEXO Hexo Corp $MLVF Malvern $OCCI Ofs Credit $BLBX Blackboxstocks

Earnings AMC

  • $SKIL Skillsoft $CLSK Cleanspark $LVLU Lulus Fashion Lounge $OPTT Ocean Power Technologies $SEAC Seachange $MMMB Mamamancini’s $ASPU Aspen Group

Any questions please feel free to ask them below. Trade Smart!

Have a great trading day!


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