USDA released one of the most influential reports for commodities Thursday morning, the June 30 Acreage report. The most significant point was corn again the largest crop produced in America in 2022. USDA raised 2022 acreage expectations for corn by 431,000 acres from the March 31. Markets pared some of their earlier morning’s losses on the news. The announcement reversed USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report which had projected higher soybean acreage relative to corn for only the third time in U.S. history.
The biggest surprise for the grains market was following the cold and wet spring that caused severe planting delays was the sudden acreage shrink for soybeans. USDA took off 2.6 million acres from the March 31 soybean planting estimate, dropping it to 88.3 million acres. It now trails 2017 (90.2M ac.) and 2018 (89.2M ac.) as the third largest U.S. soybean crop on record.
Combined corn and soybean acreage fell 2.2 million acres lower than the earlier Prospective Planting estimates. The main factor being smaller soybean acres, with much of that acreage going to hay, durum, cotton, sorghum and barley acreage.
USDA notes that planted acres are steady or lower in 35 out of 48 states. Expected harvest area is also down 4% from a year ago, with 81.9 million acres.
Corn Highlights
USDA raised 2022 acreage expectations for corn by 431,000 acres from March 31 Prospective Plantings report which had projected higher soybean acreage relative to corn for only the third time in U.S. history.
USDA pegged corn plantings at 89.9 million acres, which is 4% (3.44 million acres) down from 2021’s footprint. That was very close to the average trade guess of 89.861 million acres, and slightly above USDA’s March estimate of 89.490 million acres.
Corn stocks through June 1, 2022 increased 6% year-over-year, to 4.35 billion bushels. That was a bit higher than but very close to the average trade guess of 4.343 billion bushels. Of the total, on-farm storage is at 2.12 billion bushels, up 22% from a year ago. The remaining 2.23 billion bushels are stored off the farm, a year-over-year decline of 6%. Disappearance between March and May is 3.41 billion bushels, versus 3.58 billion bushels over the same period a year ago.
Soybean Highlights
Combined corn and soybean acreage fell 2.2 million acres lower than the earlier Prospective Planting estimates.
USDA took off 2.6 million acres from the March 31 soybean planting estimate, dropping it to 88.3 million acres. It now trails 2017 (90.2M ac.) and 2018 (89.2M ac.) as the third largest U.S. soybean crop on record.
The results for soybeans and wheat hinted at smaller than expected demand usage rates between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022.
Estimated soybean plantings increased 1% from a year ago, with 88.3 million acres this season. Analysts were much more bullish in their expectations, offering an average trade guess of 90.446 million acres prior to today’s report. USDA’s March estimates were also more aggressive, when the agency pegged the 2022 footprint at 90.955 million acres. USDA notes that planted acres are steady or higher in 24 out of 29 states.
Soybean stocks as of June 1, 2022 climbed 26% higher from a year ago, to 971 million bushels. That was slightly above the average trade guess of 965 million bushels. On-farm storage accounted for 331 million bushels (up 51% from last year), with the remaining 640 million bushels stored off the farm (up 17% from last year). Disappearance between March and May reached 960 million bushels, which was up 21% from the same period last year.
Wheat Highlights
All-wheat acres firmed 1% higher from last season, with 47.1 million acres. “If realized, this represents the fifth lowest all-wheat planted area since records began in 1919,” USDA notes. Here’s a closer look at the acreage breakdown:
- Winter wheat – 34.0 million acres (up 1%)
- Hard red winter wheat – 23.5 million acres
- Soft red winter wheat – 6.86 million acres
- White winter wheat – 3.61 million acres
- Spring wheat – 11.1 million acres (down 3%)
- Durum wheat – 1.98 million acres (up 21%)
Wheat stocks eroded 22% lower from a year ago, meantime, to 660 million bushels. That was slightly higher than the average trade guess of 655 million bushels. Of the total, 93.0 million bushels are in on-farm storage (down 34% year-over-year), with the remaining 567 million bushels stored off the farm (down 19% year-over-year). Disappearance between March and May totaled 364 million bushels, which was down 22% from the same period last year.
Source USDA Farm Progress