The USDA Released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Monday, Sept. 12. Analysts concluded the U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat while bullish for soybeans. The world ending stocks estimates were seen as moderately bearish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral for wheat prices. The USDA cut corn production 415 million bushels (mb) to 13.94 billion bushels (bb) and cut soybean production 153 mb to 4.378 bb as well. Corn yield was lowered 2.9 bushels to 172.5 bushels per acre (bpa) in line with pre-report estimates. Soybean yield was cut 1.4 bpa to 50.5 bpa.
Grains Reports
Corn
USA
- USDA lowered planted acreage for the 2022-23 corn crop by 1.2 million acres (ma) to 88.6 ma and cut estimated harvested acres by 1 ma to 80.8 million acres.
- USDA dropped the yield estimate 2.9 bpa to 172.5 bushels per acre.
- The average pre-report yield estimate was 172.4 bpa.
- The updates put corn production at 13.944 bb.
- USDA lowered the old-crop carryover by 5 mb to 1.525 bb.
- USDA put 2022-23 corn ending stocks at 1.219 bb, down 169 mb from August.
Demand Side
- USDA cut 2022-23 Feed and Residual use by 100 mb to 5.225 bb. Feed, Seed and Industrial use overall came at 6.775 bb, down 50 mb. Ethanol usage also was cut 50 mb to 5.325 bb.
- Total domestic usage came in at an even 12 bb, down 150 mb from August.
- Exports are pegged at 2.275 bb, down 100 mb from August.
- The average farmgate price for the 2022-23 corn crop was bumped up 10 cents a bushel to $6.75 per bushel.
Globally
- Globally USDA increased 2022-23 beginning stocks .3 million metric tons (mmt) to 312.14 mmt.
- Global production was lowered 7.03 mmt to 1,172.58 mmt.
- Global exports were lowered 2.04 mmt. That put ending stocks at 304.53 mmt, down 2.15 mmt.
- USDA unchanged on Russian corn 15 mmt
- Llowered the European Union’s production 1.2 mmt to 58.8 mmt.
- Ukraine raised production 1.5 mmt to 31.5 mmt and increased exports 1 mmt to 12.7 mmt.
- USDA unchanged on its forecast for Brazil’s 2021-22 production at 116 mmt.
- Argentina’s production was held at 53 mmt.
Soybeans
USA
- USDA says farmers will harvest 4.38 bb of soybeans in 2022 with a national average yield of 50.5 bpa.
- Revision is 153 mb less than last month’s forecast and reflects a 1.4 bpa cut to yield and half-million-acre revision in planted acreage.
- Toward the low end of pre-report expectations.
- USDA lowered ending stocks for 2022-23 to 200 mb. That’s 45 mb lower than last month and the lowest level in seven years.
- USDA lowered planted acreage to 87.5 million and harvested acreage to 86.6 ma.
- USDA increased beginning stocks by 15 mb to 240 mb, putting supplies at 4.633 bb.
Demand Side
- On the demand side, USDA lowered its crush forecast by 20 mb, cut exports by 70 mb and trimmed residual use by 3 mb.
- That lowered overall demand to 4.433 mb, resulting in 200 mb of ending stocks and a national average farm gate price of $14.35, unchanged from last month.
- For old-crop, 2021-22 ending stocks, USDA sees supplies at 240 mb, reflecting a lower export forecast.
Globally
- Globally, USDA pegged ending stocks for 2022-23 at 98.92 mmt, which is toward the low end of pre-report expectations and 2.49 mmt from last month.
- It reflects lower stocks in the U.S and China.
- Brazil and Argentina’s production forecasts for the upcoming crop were left unchanged at 149 mmt and 51 mmt respectively.
- USDA lowered China’s import forecast by 1 mmt to 97 mmt.
Wheat
- USDA expects farmers to harvest 1.783 bb of wheat in 2022-23.
- Production is unchanged from last month as expected.
- USDA will update its wheat production forecasts in its Small Grains Summary, which will be released Sept. 30.
- The agency made no changes to demand, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 610 mb.
- The national average farm gate price was lowered by a quarter to $9.00 per bushel.
Global
- USDA made changes to global wheat figures of 2022-23. Ending stocks rose to 268.57 mmt, up 1.23 mmt from last month.
- USDA sees higher supplies, consumption and exports, with production increases in Ukraine and Russia offsetting lower beginning stocks.
- Ukrainian production was increased by 1 mmt to 20.5 mmt, while Russian production was up 3 mmt to 91 mmt.
- If realized, Russian production would be a new record.
Livestock
Cattle
Monday’s WASDE report was supportive news to the cattle market.
- Beef production for 2022 was raised by 16 million pounds, as slaughter speeds continue to run relentlessly.
- The third quarter of 2022 saw a 25-million-pound dip in production from last month’s report as carcass weights are waning, but the third quarter’s drawback was more than offset by the 40-million-pound addition to the fourth quarter.
- Beef production for 2023 was raised by 70 million pounds, with the first quarter of 2023 being raised by 150 million pounds from August’s WASDE report, while the second quarter of 2023 remained unchanged.
- Steer prices are expected to average $143.00, up $3.00 from last month, for the third quarter in 2022, and fourth quarter prices are unchanged at $147.00.
- Beef imports for 2022 fell by 45 million pounds and beef exports for 2022 held steady.
- Beef imports and exports for 2023 were unchanged from August’s report.
Hogs
Monday’s WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog complex.
- Pork production for 2022 gained 55 million pounds from last month’s report as pork production in the third quarter is anticipated to be better than originally expected.
- Pressures in the current market have dropped third quarter prices by $6.00 from August’s WASDE report, and fourth quarter prices in 2022 are expected to average $65.00, which is down $4.00 from a month ago.
- Quarterly price projections for 2023 are unchanged from a month ago.
- Pork imports for 2022 fell by 50 million pounds
- Pork exports also fell by 80 million pounds.
- Pork imports for 2023 fell by 100 million pounds and exports remained unchanged.
Sources:
- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
From The TradersCommunity Research Desk