US housing starts declined 4.2% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.425 million (consensus 1.420 million) from an upwardly revised 1.488 million (from 1.439 million) in September. Affordability is the major issue; mortgage demand remains near its lowest level since 1997. Building permits dropped 2.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.526 million (consensus 1.518 million) from an unrevised 1.564 million).
The move suggests disruption and demographic influences.
United States Housing Starts October 2022
The keynote from the report was there no growth in single-unit starts in any regions nor any growth in permits (a leading indicator) in any region for single-unit dwellings.
- US Total housing starts declined 4.2% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.425 million (consensus 1.420 million) from an upwardly revised 1.488 million (from 1.439 million) in September.
- Compared to October 2021, housing starts fell 8.8%.
- Single-family housing starts dropped 6.1% to a rate of 855 thousand
- Multi-family units (buildings with five units or more) decreased 0.5% to 556 thousand.
- Starts were down in the Northeast (-34.7% to 96 thousand), the Midwest (-11.1% to 185 thousand); and the West (-10.6% to 336 thousand)
- Starts went up in the South (6.7% to 808 thousand).
- Number of units under construction at the end of the period increased 0.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.710 million.
The housing market had been supported by low interest rates and increasing demand from people moving away from big cities due to the coronavirus crisis, but the momentum slowed with rising inputs amid supply constraints could limit production to ease a shortage of homes. Homebuilding activity has seen an adverse impact from sharply higher mortgage rates on buyer demand and builder sentiment. Further to rising mortgage rates, headwinds come from supply constraints and higher house prices. Rates are now sharply higher (over 7%).
United States Building Permits October 2022
- US Building Permits Building permits dropped 2.4% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.526 million in October 2022,
- Lowest since August 2020 and compared with market expectations of 1.512 million.
- Single-family authorizations declined 3.6% to a rate of 839 thousand,
- Multi-segment dropped 1.0% to 687 thousand.
- Permits were down in the West (-12.9 percent to 330 thousand) and Northeast (-7.0 percent to 120 thousand)
- Permits were up in the South (2.4 percent to 867 thousand) and unchanged in the Midwest (at 209 thousand).
Housing Completions
- Privately‐owned housing completions in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,339,000. This is 6.4
- percent (±10.6 percent)* below the revised September estimate of 1,431,000, but is 6.6 percent (±12.6 percent)* above the
- October 2021 rate of 1,256,000. Single‐family housing completions in October were at a rate of 961,000; this is 8.3 percent
- (±8.2 percent) below the revised September rate of 1,048,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more
- was 362,000
Notice of methodology change: Beginning with the January 2022 New Residential Construction release on February 17, 2022, the monthly Building Permits Survey design will change from a representative sample to a cut‐off sample. This change will allow complete local and county data on new housing units authorized by permits to be published on a monthly basis going forward. For additional details on this change and the impact on New Residential Construction, see our FAQ document.
Source: US Census
From The TradersCommunity News Desk