US housing starts in June came in lower-than-expected 1.559m vs 1.580m expected. This is 2 percent below the revised May 2022 estimate of 1,591,000. Building permits 1695K vs 1785K, this is 0.6% below the revised May rate of 1,695,000. The key takeaway from the report was the broad-based softness in single-family starts and permits. The Fed’s Waller highlighted retail sales and housing data as potential reasons to raise rates 100 bps if they were ‘materially’ stronger than expected which they weren’t
The move suggests disruption and demographic influences.
United States Housing Starts June 2022
The keynote from the report was the broad-based softness in single-family starts and permits. Starts declined month-over-month in three of the four geographic regions.
- US Housing Starts Jun: 1559K (est 1580K; prev 1549K)
- US Housing Starts (M/M) Jun: -2.0% (est 2.0%; prev -14.4%)
- Single-family housing starts sank 8.1% to 982,000
- Starts for units in buildings with five units or more was 568,000.
- Starts were lower in the South (-4.8% to 825,000) and the Midwest (-7.7% to 215,000) but rose in the Northeast (10.6% to 156,000) and the West (3.7% to 363,000)
The housing market had been supported by low interest rates and increasing demand from people moving away from big cities due to the coronavirus crisis, but the momentum slowed with rising inputs amid supply constraints could limit production to ease a shortage of homes. Homebuilding activity is seen slowing in the coming months, amid rising mortgage rates, supply constraints and higher house prices.
United States Building Permits June 2022
- US Building Permits Jun: 1685K (est 1650K; prev 1695K)
- US Building Permits (M/M) Jun: -0.6% (est -2.7%; prev -7.0%)
The big question is after the inflation and rates and the economy reopens how much further can housing starts go with the massive disruption and divergence with unemployment and wealth creation and erosion demographics.
Housing Completions
- Privately‐owned housing completions in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,365,000. This is 4.6 percent (±11.7 percent)* below the revised May estimate of 1,431,000, but is 4.6 percent (±13.4 percent)* above the June 2021 rate of 1,305,000.
- Single‐family housing completions in June were at a rate of 996,000; this is 4.1 percent (±11.1 percent)* below the revised May rate of 1,039,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 366,000
Notice of methodology change: Beginning with the January 2022 New Residential Construction release on February 17, 2022, the monthly Building Permits Survey design will change from a representative sample to a cut‐off sample. This change will allow complete local and county data on new housing units authorized by permits to be published on a monthly basis going forward. For additional details on this change and the impact on New Residential Construction, see our FAQ document.
Source: US Census
From The TradersCommunity News Desk