Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019, “advance” estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE +1.8% vs +2.0% expected. Cconsumption was stronger but drop in business investment and weak housing hinder.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019, “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE +1.8% vs +2.0% expected. Cconsumption was stronger but drop in business investment and weak housing hinder.
- Q2 GDP 2.1% vs +1.8%
- Q1 GDP 3.1% q/q annualized
- Q4 2.2% (revised to 1.1%)
- GDP y/y +2.3% vs +2.7% prior
- 2018 GDP unrevised at +2.9%
- Personal consumption 4.3% vs 4.0% exp (fastest since Q2 2017) Prior +0.9% (revised to +1.1%)
- Consumer spending on durables +12.9% vs +0.3% prior
- Consumption added 2.85 pp to GDP
- Government consumption added 0.85 pp to GDP
- Business investment -0.6% vs +4.4% prior (first contraction since 2016)
- Home investment -1.5% (6th consecutive contraction)
- Gross private investment cut 1.0 pp from GDP
- Exports -5.2%
- Imports +0.1%
- Trade subtracts 0.65 pp from GDP
- Inventories +$71.7B (cuts 0.88 pp from GDP)
- GDP price index 2.4% vs 2.0% expected Prior
- GDP price index 0.9% (revised to 1.1%)
- Core PCE 1.8% vs 2.0% exp Prior Core PCE 1.2% (revised to 1.1%)
- GDP deflator +2.5%
Fed Note: The case for a 50 basis point cut decreased further.
Current-dollar personal income increased $244.2 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $269.8 billion in the first quarter. Decelerations in compensation and in personal current transfer receipts were partly offset by an upturn in personal income receipts on assets and a deceleration in contributions for government social insurance (a subtraction in the calculation of personal income).
Disposable personal income increased $193.4 billion, or 4.9 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $190.6 billion, or 4.8 percent, in the first quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent.
Personal saving was $1.32 trillion in the second quarter, compared with $1.37 trillion in the first quarter. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 8.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with 8.5 percent in the first quarter.
Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis
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