US CPI in December rose 0.5% m/m in December (consensus +0.4%). Core CPI rose 0.6% (consensus +0.5%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 7.0% (versus 6.8% in November) and core CPI is up 5.5% (versus 4.9% November). Inflation remains persistently high as Central Bankers keep trying to reassure us that soaring inflation will come under control.
US December Highlights
US December CPI +7.0% vs +7.0% expected
- Highest since 1982
- Prior was 6.2%
- m/m CPI +0.5% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior m/m reading was +0.8%
- Real weekly earnings +0.1% vs -0.2% prior (prior revised to -0.4%)
Core inflation:
- Ex food and energy +5.5% vs +5.4% y/y expected
- Prior ex food and energy +4.9%
- Core m/m +0.6% vs +0.5% exp
- Prior core m/m +0.5%
- New vehicles +1.0% m/m
- Used cars and trucks +3.5% m/m (and +37.3% y/y)
- Apparel +1.7%
- Shelter +0.4% with the owners’ equivalent rent of residences index also rising 0.4%.
- Food +0.5%, led by a 0.9% increase in fruits and vegetables.
- Energy index fell 0.4% with the fuel oil index decreasing 2.4% while gasoline index fell 0.5%.
- Medical care index rose 0.3%.
US CPI November 2021
CPI in November was up 0.8% month-over-month (consensus +0.7%) following a 0.9% increase in October
CPI in November year-over-year figures was +6.8% y/y versus 6.2% in September
Highlights
- US November CPI +6.8% y/y vs +6.8% expected, prior 6.2%
- Highest since 1982,
- m/m CPI +0.8% vs +0.7% expected, Prior +0.9%
- Real weekly earnings -0.2% vs -0.9% prior
- Energy costs the biggest gain (33.3% vs 30% in October), namely gasoline (58.1% vs 49.6%).
- Inflation also increased for shelter (3.8% vs 3.5%); food (6.1% vs 5.3%, the highest since October of 2008), namely food at home (6.4% vs 5.4%); new vehicles (11.1% vs 9.8%); used cars and trucks (31.4% vs 26.4%); apparel (5% vs 4.3%); and medical care services (2.1% vs 1.7%).
- Inflation slowed for transportation services (3.9% vs 4.5%).
- Excluding food and energy, inflation went up to 4.9% from 4.6%, the highest since June of 1991.
Food
Housing
Transportation
US Core CPI November 2021
- November core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up Ex food and energy +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected
- Prior ex food and energy +4.6%
- Core m/m 0.5% vs +0.5% exp
- Prior core m/m +0.9%
The effects of the coronavirus pandemic are weighing on prices since in last year many businesses closed and lockdowns were imposed, denting economic activity. A jump in commodities and material costs, coupled with supply constraints, are pushing producer prices up and some companies are passing those costs to clients
US Real Earnings November 2021
- Real weekly earnings -0.2% vs -0.9% prior
“I’m making more money…But I don’t see it because I’m paying more money for stuff now.” Low-wage workers are getting sharp raises. Inflation is eating them up. via Greg Ip WSJ
Source: BLS
Across the pond…
Euro area inflation is expected to be 4.9% in November, up from 4.1 % in October, with energy by far the main driver.
From the Traders Community News Desk