US Advance Estimates Q2 GDP 4.1%, Lower Than Expected

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE +2.0% vs +2.2% expected

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE +2.0% vs +2.2% expected

US GDP Q218

GDP highlights

Growth

  • US Q2 advance GDP +4.1% vs +4.2% expected Prior  2.0%
  • Personal consumption +4.0% vs +3.0% expected Prior +0.9%
  • Inventories cut 1.00 percentage points from growth
  • Exports +9.3%
  • Imports +0.5%
  • Home investment -1.1%
  • Business investment +7.3%
  • 2017 GDP revised to 2.2% from 2.3%
  • 2017 personal savings revised to +6.7% from +3.4%

Inflation

  • GDP price index +3.0% vs +2.3% expected Prior +2.2%
  • Core PCE +2.0% vs +2.2% expected Prior +2.3%

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter reflected accelerations in PCE and in exports, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and accelerations in federal government spending and in state and local spending. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports decelerated.

Current-dollar GDP increased 7.4 percent, or $361.5 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $20.4 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.3 percent, or $209.2 billion (table 1 and table 3A).

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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