US June nonfarm payrolls rose by 372,000 (consensus 268,000) with May’s a revised 384K new jobs. June unemployment rate was 3.6% (consensus 3.6%), versus 3.6% in May and slightly above before the pandemic became widespread in the U.S. in February 2020. Wages grew 5.1% on the year, down from 5.3% in May. In the face of surging inflation June average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (consensus 0.3%) The change in private payrolls +381K, more than the +240K expected.
June 2022 US Employment Report
The jobless rate stayed at 3.6% the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate is quickly approaching the February 2020 pre-pandemic rate of 3.5%, which was a 50-year low.
The market had expected the June report released Friday to show nonfarm payrolls rise 268k new jobs which it beat with 372k new jobs. Employers added an average of nearly 400,000 workers over the previous three months, keeping the job market on strong footing.
Employers hired across industries, with government the only major category to shed jobs. Companies in certain industries that are vulnerable to interest-rate increases, such as technology and real estate, have announced layoffs. Some firms have implemented hiring freezes.
The labor force participation rate, which measures the share of the population working or looking for work rose to 62.3% in May from 62.2% a month earlier and was well above its trough of 60.2% in April 2020. Participation was still down from 63.4% in February 2020.
A severe labor shortage has driven up annual wage increases above 5% every month of this year. By contrast, wage gains averaged 3.2% in the 12 months to February 2020.
June 2022 US Employment Report and Expectations
Employment
- US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jun: 372K (est 268K; prevR 384K)
- US Unemployment Rate Jun: 3.6% (est 3.6%; prev 3.6%)
- US Labour Force Participation Rate Jun: 62.2% (est 62.3%; prev 62.3%)
- Two-month net revision -74K, April was revised down by 68,000, from +436,000 to +368,000, and the change for May was revised down by 6,000, from +390,000 to +384,000
- US Change in Private Payrolls Jun: 381K (est 240K; prev 333K)
- US Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Jun: 29K (est 15K; prev 18K)
- Change in Government Payrolls June -9K (prev +57K)
- U6 underemployment rate 6.7% vs 7.1% prior
- Long-term unemployed at 1.3m vs (prev 1.4m, 1.2m pre-pandemic)
- The employment-population ratio 59.9% vs (prev 60.1%, 61.2% before pandemic)
- US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Jun: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prevR 0.4%)
- US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Jun: 5.1% (est 5.0%; prevR 5.3%)
- US Average Weekly Hours All Employees Jun: 34.5 (est 34.6; prev 34.6)
The unemployment rate and number of unemployed persons prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic was 3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively, in February 2020)
Where the Jobs Were:
Job gains were widespread. In June, 7.1 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 7.4 percent in the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey specifically because of the pandemic.
Largest gains occurring in:
- professional and business services (74K), namely management of companies and enterprises (12K), computer systems design and related services (10K);
- leisure and hospitality (67K), mainly food services and drinking places (41K);
- health care (57K), including ambulatory health care services (28K), and hospitals (21K).
- manufacturing increased by 29K and has returned to its February 2020 level.
That leaves the economy down by 1.2 million jobs, or 0.8 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.
Labour shortages continue to weigh even after federal government-funded unemployment benefits have expired and schools reopened. Some investors believe such shortages could get worse due to the White House’s vaccine mandate.
Private Jobs
Government Jobs
Manufacturing Jobs
Wages Monthly
Wages Yearly
Hours
May Employment Reports
- ADP Reports US Added Just 128K Jobs in May at Slowest Pace Since Covid Lockdowns
- US Job Openings for April 11.400M Down From 11.855M in March
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the fourth month in a row, and the number of unemployed
persons was essentially unchanged at 5.9 million in June. These measures are little different from their
values in February 2020 (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively), prior to the coronavirus (COVID19) pandemic
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Asians increased to 3.0 percent in June.
The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.3 percent), teenagers (11.0 percent),
Whites (3.3 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.3 percent) showed little or no change over
the month.
Among the unemployed, both the number of permanent job losers, at 1.3 million in June, and the
number of persons on temporary layoff, at 827,000, changed little over the month. These measures are
little different from their values in February 2020.
In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially
unchanged at 1.3 million. This measure is 215,000 higher than in February 2020. The long-term
unemployed accounted for 22.6 percent of all unemployed persons in June. (See table A-12.)
The labor force participation rate, at 62.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.9
percent, were little changed over the month. Both measures remain below their February 2020 values
(63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively).
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons declined by 707,000 to 3.6 million in
June and is below its February 2020 level of 4.4 million. These individuals, who would have preferred
full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable
to find full-time jobs.
The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was essentially unchanged at
5.7 million in June. This measure is above its February 2020 level of 5.0 million. These individuals were
not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks
preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to
the labor force, at 1.5 million, was essentially unchanged in June. These individuals wanted and were
available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached
who believed that no jobs were available for them, numbered 364,000 in June, little changed from the
prior month.
Household Survey Supplemental Data
In June, 7.1 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down
from 7.4 percent in the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at
home for pay at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey specifically because of the pandemic.
In June, 2.1 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed
or lost business due to the pandemic—that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some
point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the pandemic. This measure is up from 1.8 million in
the previous month. Among those who reported in June that they were unable to work because of
pandemic-related closures or lost business, 24.8 percent received at least some pay from their
employer for the hours not worked, little different from the previous month.
Among those not in the labor force in June, 610,000 persons were prevented from looking for work
due to the pandemic, up from 455,000 in the prior month. (To be counted as unemployed, by
definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)
These supplemental data come from questions added to the household survey beginning in May 2020 to
help gauge the effects of the pandemic on the labor market. The data are not seasonally adjusted. Tables
with estimates from the supplemental questions for all months are available online at
www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm.
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, in line with the average monthly gain
over the prior 3 months (+383,000). In June, notable job growth occurred in professional and business
services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Total nonfarm employment is down by 524,000, or 0.3 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Private-sector employment has recovered the net job losses due to the pandemic and is 140,000 higher than in February 2020, while government employment is 664,000 lower.
Employment in professional and business services continued to grow, with an increase of 74,000 in
June. Within the industry, job growth occurred in management of companies and enterprises (+12,000),
computer systems design and related services (+10,000), office administrative services (+8,000), and
scientific research and development services (+6,000). Employment in professional and business
services is 880,000 higher than in February 2020.
In June, leisure and hospitality added 67,000 jobs, as growth continued in food services and drinking
places (+41,000). However, employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 1.3 million, or 7.8
percent, since February 2020.
Employment in health care rose by 57,000 in June, including gains in ambulatory health care services
(+28,000), hospitals (+21,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000). Employment in
health care overall is below its February 2020 level by 176,000, or 1.1 percent.
In June, transportation and warehousing added 36,000 jobs. Employment rose in warehousing and
storage (+18,000) and air transportation (+8,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing is
759,000 above its February 2020 level.
Employment in manufacturing increased by 29,000 in June and has returned to its February 2020 level.
Information added 25,000 jobs in June, including a gain of 9,000 jobs in publishing industries, except
Internet. Employment in information is 105,000 higher than in February 2020.
In June, employment in social assistance rose by 21,000. Employment continued to trend up in child
day care services (+11,000) and in individual and family services (+10,000). Employment in social
assistance is down by 87,000, or 2.0 percent, since February 2020.
Wholesale trade added 16,000 jobs in June, including 8,000 in nondurable goods. Employment in
wholesale trade is down by 18,000, or 0.3 percent, since February 2020.
Mining employment rose by 5,000 in June, with a gain in oil and gas extraction (+2,000). Mining
employment is 86,000 above a recent low in February 2021.
Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including construction,
retail trade, financial activities, other services, and government.
Earnings
In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents, or
0.3 percent, to $32.08. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.1 percent.
In June, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by
13 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $27.45.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls held at 34.5 hours in June. In
manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees was little changed at 40.3 hours, and overtime
fell by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on
private nonfarm payrolls remained at 34.0 hours.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 68,000, from +436,000
to +368,000, and the change for May was revised down by 6,000, from +390,000 to +384,000. With
these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported.
(Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies
since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
The Employment Situation for July is scheduled to be released on Friday, August 5, 2022, at 8:30
a.m. (ET)
Source: AFP, Challenger, DOL, TradersCommunity Data, BLS
From The TradersCommunity News Desk