US Added Lowest New Jobs In 11 Months in November With Just 235,000

US in November added 235k non-farm payrolls jobs, less than forecasted 536k. October previous 531K revised to +604K. Unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) rose 0.3% Change in private payrolls +235K Change in manufacturing payrolls +31K

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November 2021 U.S. Employment Report

The Covid-19 virus again threatens the global economy again.  Is this Deja vu? As the world’s economy was shut down and much of America had stay at home orders the threat of Oricon is causing a nervous reminder of those dark days. Jobless claims numbers have been improving but unfortunately the story is much worse as people have not all been able to return to work with jobs replaced or been left devastated from lost income.

The market had expected the November report released Friday to show nonfarm payrolls rise 550k new jobs which it missed with just 210k new jobs with a sputtering economy.  The volatile numbers point up how difficult estimating the jobs situation is amid an economy struggling to get back to normal following the coronavirus-inducted shutdown. The national unemployment rate had come off a 50 year low 3.5% with higher participation before the Covid-19 lockdown now to 4.2%.

US Jobs Report

November 2021 US Employment Report & Expectations

Employment:

  • Non-Farm Payrolls Nov: 210K (est 550K; prev 531K)
  • Unemployment Rate Nov: 4.2% (est 4.5%; prev 4.6%)
  • Labor Force Participation Rate Nov: 61.8% (est 61.6%; prev 61.6%). Pre pandemic 63.5%
  • Underemployment rate 7.8% vs 8.4% estimate. Last month 8.3%. Prepandemic 7.0%
  • Two month net revision +82K
  • Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Nov: 31K (est 45K; prev 60K)
  • Change In Private Payrolls Nov: 235K (est 536K; prev 604K)
  • Change in Government Payrolls Nov: -20 5K: Federal + 2K State -9K Local -18K
  • Long-term unemployed at 
  • The employment-population ratio 58.8% vs 58.7% prior (61% before pandemic)

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.6 percent in October. The number of unemployed persons, at 7.4 million, continued to trend down. Both measures are down considerably from their highs at the end of the February-April 2020 recession. However, they remain above their levels prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively, in February 2020)

Employment Percentage Change From Feb 2020 to Aug 2021
  • Goods Producing 60K versus 108K last month
  • Service jobs 175K versus 534K last month (revised from 496K last month):

Where the jobs were:

  • Manufacturing +31K vs 48K last month
  • Construction +31K vs 43K last month
  • Trade transportation and utilities 37K
  • Financial activity 13K
  • Professional business services +90K
  • Education and health services +4K
  • Leisure and hospitality +23K
  • Other services +10 K

Where jobs were lost:

  • The biggest job losses occurred in Mining and logging -2K vs +3 K last month
  • Information -2K

So far in 2021 monthly job growth has averaged 582K. Nonfarm employment has increased by 18.2 million since a recent trough in April 2020 but is down by 4.2 million from its pre-pandemic level.

Labour shortages continue to weigh even after federal government-funded unemployment benefits have expired and schools reopened. Some investors believe such shortages could get worse due to the White House’s vaccine mandate.

United States Non Farm Payrolls

Private Jobs

The US private sector added just 235 thousand jobs in November, the least since a 274 thousand decline in December 2020 and well below market expectations of 530 thousand.

United States Nonfarm Payrolls - Private

Government Jobs

Government Payrolls in the United States fell by 25 thousand in November of 2021, the smallest drop since September. Employment decreased in local government education and state government education (-12,600 and -3,000, respectively). Employment changed little in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, information, other services, and public and private education.

 

United States Government Payrolls


 Manufacturing Jobs

Manufacturing Payrolls in the United States rose by 31 thousand in November of 2021, following a 48 thousand increase in the previous month and missing market expectations of 45 thousand. Job gains occurred in miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing (+10,000) and fabricated metal products (+8,000), while motor vehicles and parts lost jobs (-10,000). Employment in machinery declined by 6,000, largely reflecting a strike. Manufacturing employment is down by 253,000 since February 2020.

United States Manufacturing Payrolls

 

 Wages

Avg Hourly Earnings (M/M) Nov: 0.3% (est 0.4%; prev 0.4%)

  • Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls increased by 8 cents, or 0.3% over the month to $31.03 in November of 2021, slightly below market expectations of 0.4% and following a 0.4% rise in October.
  • It was the smallest increase in average hourly earnings since March.
  • In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 12 cents to $26.40.
United States Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Avg Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Nov: 4.8% (est 5.0%; prev 4.9%)

  • Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4.8% year-on-year in November of 2021, the same pace as in the prior month but missing market estimates of 5%. 
United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY

 Hours

Avg Weekly Hours Nov: 34.8 (est 34.7; prev 34.7)

  • The average workweek for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.8 hours in November of 2021, slightly above market estimates of 34.7.
  • In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.4 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours.
  • The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.1 hours.
United States Average Weekly Hours

 


  Household Survey Data

  • The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent in November. The number of
    unemployed persons fell by 542,000 to 6.9 million. Both measures are down considerably from their
    highs at the end of the February-April 2020 recession. However, they remain above their levels prior to
    the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively, in February 2020).
  • The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 2.2 million, changed
    little in November but is 1.1 million higher than in February 2020. The long-term unemployed
    accounted for 32.1 percent of the total unemployed in November. (See table A-12.)
  • The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.8 percent in November. The participation rate is 1.5
    percentage points lower than in February 2020. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4
    percentage point to 59.2 percent in November. This measure is up from its low of 51.3 percent in April
    2020 but remains below the figure of 61.1 percent in February 2020. (See table A-1.)
  • The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in
    November. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time
    because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. This figure was about
    the same as in February 2020. (See table A-8.)
  • The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million in
    November, little changed over the month but up by 849,000 since February 2020. These individuals
    were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks
    preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)
  • Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to
    the labor force was little changed at 1.6 million in November. These individuals wanted and were
    available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for
    work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the
    marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was essentially unchanged over
    the month at 450,000. (See Summary table A.)

Household Survey Supplemental Data

  • In November, the share of employed persons who teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic
    declined by 0.3 percentage point to 11.3 percent. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked
    or worked at home for pay at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey specifically because of the
    pandemic.
  • In November, 3.6 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer
    closed or lost business due to the pandemic—that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at
    some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the pandemic.
  • This measure was little different from the level of 3.8 million in October. Among those who reported in November that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 15.8 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed from the prior month.
  • Among those not in the labor force in November, 1.2 million persons were prevented from looking for
    work due to the pandemic, little changed from October. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition,
    individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)
  • These supplemental data come from questions added to the household survey beginning in May 2020 to
    help gauge the effects of the pandemic on the labor market. The data are not seasonally adjusted. Tables
    with estimates from the supplemental questions for all months are available online at
    www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm

Establishment Survey Data

  • Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November. Thus far this year, monthly job
    growth has averaged 555,000. Nonfarm employment has increased by 18.5 million since April 2020 but
    is down by 3.9 million, or 2.6 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. In November,
    notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing,
    construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.
  • Professional and business services added 90,000 jobs in November. Job gains continued in
    administrative and waste services (+42,000), although employment in its temporary help services
    component changed little (+6,000).
  • Job growth also continued in management and technical consulting services (+12,000) and in computer system design and related services (+10,000).
  • Employment in professional and business services overall is 69,000 below its level in February 2020.
  • Construction employment rose by 31,000 in November, following gains of a similar magnitude in the
    prior 2 months. In November, employment continued to trend up in specialty trade contractors
    (+13,000), construction of buildings (+10,000), and heavy and civil engineering construction (+8,000).
    Construction employment is 115,000 below its February 2020 level.
  • Employment in financial activities continued to trend up in November (+13,000) and is 30,000 above its February 2020 level. Job growth occurred in securities, commodity contracts, and investments in November (+9,000).
  • Health care employment was about unchanged in November (+2,000). Within the industry, employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+17,000), while nursing and residential care facilities lost 11,000 jobs. Employment in health care is down by 450,000 since February 2020, with nursing and residential care facilities accounting for nearly all of the loss.
  • In November, employment showed little change in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, information, other services, and public and private education.
  • In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 8 cents to $31.03. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.8 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 12 cents to $26.40. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
  • The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.8 hours in November. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.4 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.1 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
  • The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 67,000, from +312,000 to +379,000, and the change for October was revised up by 15,000, from +531,000 to +546,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined is 82,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

The Employment Situation for December is scheduled to be released on Friday, January 7, 2022,
at 8:30 a.m. (ET


November 2021 ADP U.S. Employment Report

Private payroll company ADP reported that US jobs grew 534,000 in November. The US Labor Department will report It’s jobs report on Friday. October added downwardly revised 570K increase with market expectations Adding 525K.

United States ADP Employment Change

Read More: ADP Reports US Added 534K Jobs In November With Service Sector Adding 424K


Jobless Claims for the week ending Nov 26th 2021

Initial jobless claims continue to fall. Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level of initial claims since November 15, 1969. The labor market continues to recover from the coronavirus economic burdens. Initial claims by 71,000 to 199,000 in the week ended November 20th. Demand for workers remains strong as the economy rebounds.

United States Initial Jobless Claims

Read More: US Initial Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969


Challenger, Gray & Christmas Jobs Report November 2021

US Job Cuts Fall To Lowest Since May 1993

US companies Job cuts fell 34.8 percent from a month earlier in November 2021 and 77 percent from a year earlier to 14,875. This was the lowest since May 1993. Companies are battling to keep workers amid a tight labor market.  The technology sector had the most job cuts with 1980.

Read More: US Job Cuts Fall To Lowest Since May 1993  

  

 

Source: AFP, Challenger, DOL, TradersCommunity Data, BLS

From The TraderCommunity Research Desk