Traders Market Weekly: Treasury Debt and Central Bank Balancing Act

Dec 10 -16, 2023

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The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?

Contents

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Editorial

It was a week of consolidation for the major stock indices as they closed the week with modest gains ahead of quadruple witching next Friday. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,604 up 11.8% off its October 27 low (4,117) and set a new 52-week high for the index. The week started with all-time highs in gold that resulted in a violent reversal. We saw similar moves in silver and continued selling in oil and natural gas. Bonds sold off on Friday after a solid U.S. jobs report. The 2-yr note yield climbed 18 basis points to 4.74% and the 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 4.25%. This price action put some renewed pressure on the 2s10s spread, which tightened by 16 bps to -49 bps.

The fed funds futures market is no longer pricing in a rate cut in March following this week’s data, but it still sees a strong likelihood of a cut in May (78.5% on Friday), according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The markets were positioning ahead of the FOMC Summaries of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) update. Will they avoid or feed the rate cut frenzy?

Markets are fixated on “soft landings” and the next easing cycle. The loosening of financial conditions can be seen in the almost 10-point pop in the preliminary December reading of University of Michigan Consumer Expectations. We are seeing latecomers to the rally coming on board as the squeeze dynamics pressure and the new longs present market fragility which is also evident in crowded longs. We see the short squeeze in bonds and stocks but also longs being hurt in markets such as oil and gas.

Alphabet (GOOG) stood out gaining 2.5% on the week after jumping over 5.0% during Thursday’s session following its Gemini AI model reveal. Communication services sector gained 1.4% this week. The consumer discretionary sector rose 1.1%. The continued sell off in oil and natural gas helped the energy sector with the largest decline (-3.3%). The materials (-1.7%) and consumer staples (-1.3%) sectors also fell, WTI oil prices dropped 3.5% to $71.18/bbl.

We are seeing continued weakness in China with Moody’s downgrade of China’s credit outlook to Negative from Stable, in part to concerns about structurally weaker growth prospects. All is not perfect in the US; the October Job Openings Report showed the lowest number of job openings (8.733 million) since March 2021.

The soft-landing side saw relief in November ISM Non-Manufacturing rising to 52.7% from 51.8%, the weekly jobless claims numbers remain consistent with a robust labor market, the November Employment Situation report was solid overall, and the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December was stronger than expected.

Federal borrowing dominates system credit expansion

Federal borrowing dominates system Credit expansion providing the perfect instrument for levered speculation. Ongoing historic expansion of speculative finance as suggested by the extraordinary expansion of “Repo” lending. Traditional sources of finance have tightened, with a notable pullback in bank lending, along with diminished corporate and household debt growth.

  • NFD expanded nominal $942 billion during Q3, with Treasury Securities gaining $901 billion, or 13% annualized, to a record $28.649 TN.
  • Treasuries inflated $2.180 TN over the past year, with two-year growth of a staggering $4.399 TN, or 18.1%.
  • Over 17 quarters, Treasuries ballooned $10.835 TN, or 60.8%.
  • Since 2007, historic excess has seen Treasury growth of $22.598 TN, or 373%.
  • Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) declined $70 billion (FHLB Assets contracted $50bn) to $11.902 TN.
  • GSE Securities expanded $460 billion, or 4.0%, over the past year, and $1.366 TN, or 13.0%, over the past seven quarters.
  • GSE Securities ballooned an unprecedented $2.638 TN, or 28.5%, over 17 quarters.

Basis Trade Unwind

Shorting Treasury futures is part of global speculative leverage. It surged from $650 billion to $800 billion to $1 TN.

“The Bank of England stepped up warnings about hedge funds shorting US Treasury futures, saying its measure of the net position is now larger than before the ‘dash for cash’ crisis in March 2020. The net short position has grown to $800 billion from about $650 billion in July, the central bank said, citing calculations based on Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. That suggests a jump in the so-called basis trade, which is where investors seek to exploit price differences between futures and bonds. The trade is particularly risky because returns are bolstered by borrowing money in the repo market.” December 6 – Bloomberg (Greg Ritchie and William Shaw)

“Hedge funds look to be scaling down their record short position in U.S. Treasury futures, marking the beginning of the end of the so-called ‘basis trade’ – an unwind that regulators have warned could pose severe financial stability risks… They ‘short’, or sell the bond future, and go ‘long’, or buy the cash bond. The trade is funded in overnight repo markets and highly leveraged. If the unwind is now underway, the question for authorities – and financial markets at large – is whether the $1 trillion position can be unwound in an orderly manner.” December 8 – Reuters (Jamie McGeever)

We have spoken much of the resilient selective consumer spending, solid corporate earnings in the third quarter as being factors in what has caught many short. Other factors that have eased investors’ minds are the containment of the war between Israel and Hamas, Ukraine and Russia out of the news cycles and a quieter partisan battleground in US politics.

Recall in the past weeks we delved deeper into consumer finances. This bears repeating given recent data and market action. “What we see is they indicate an ability to pay. We are at a 22-year low in the debt-to-income ratio, record low debt payments as a share of incomes, locked-in low 30-year mortgage rates (something we harp on about, why would you move or refinance if you don’t have to?) and still high cash balances even if saving rates have normalized. Many habits changed after the pandemic and the uncertainty perpetuated by politics of hate has people more reliant on their own development.”

The bond market is reacting to economic data week that continues to look consistent with a soft-landing scenario. The Wall Street Journal’s Fed insider wrote in the afternoon that FOMC officials are more confident that rate hikes are over.

We are seeing latecomers to the rally coming on board as the squeeze dynamics pressure and the new longs present market fragility which is also evident in crowded longs. We see the short squeeze in bonds and stocks but also longs being hurt in markets such as oil and gas.

A reminder “Hedge funds betting on a decline in US and European stock markets have suffered an estimated $43bn of losses in a sharp rally over recent days. Short sellers, many of whom had built up bets against companies exposed to higher borrowing costs over the past year or so, have been caught out by a ‘painful’ rebound in ‘low quality’ stocks this month, said Barclays’ head of European equity strategy Emmanuel Cau. That has come as the market has grown more confident that the US Federal Reserve’s cycle of rate rises is finally over.” The Financial Times George Steer

What Chair Powell and others have noticed is higher prices are not holding back consumption given that consumer spending was a sizeable driver of the 5% Q3 GDP growth rate. Consumers are paying higher prices, just being more selective. This was borne out in this muttering post FOMC. What many pundits have failed to grasp is massive U.S. government debt growth underpins incomes and corporate earnings, bolstering system-wide Credit. Further to those years of government sector liability expansion through the Treasury and Federal Reserve have created unprecedented gains in household and corporate sectors cash and bond holdings (along with inflated equities and real estate. The pandemic also changed the habits of many, locked in lower mortgage rates for example, lowered surplus spending and invested in dividend paying assets.

Some of This Week’s Main Stories We Covered

Risks Being Ignored or Opportunity Being Repriced?

With the swings of psychology and dominance of unemotional algorithm models dominating markets more than ever it is critical to stay unemotional and devoid of bias where best you can. For the next six months, we stick to our technical outlook via KnovaWave, watch the curve and EURUSD and USDJPY.

A reminder in these markets don’t get married to a view, leave biased partisan opinions at the door and find a leader. Right now, NVDA and TSLA continue to give us give good insights into crowd behavior. Note the divergence and convergence with it and other instruments. Be proactive.

These markets are constantly evolving, the important things is why we are here and it isn’t a surprise.

Where is the fear?

We got some movement these past weeks out of the tight range in markets but as we can see from the VIX chart it quickly reverted back after the initial breaks. We are aware of built-up energy ahead of key central bank decisions and potential fundamentals to set-up rate hikes or not. There is discontent globally with central banks and politicians. Many are confusing today’s market structure as that of the past and applying rational thought. Algorithmics and market forces haven’t been caught by the disconnect on a longer than normal” lag between rates rising and economic growth slowing. Throw in the explosion in short-dated stock options, the main Vix index is not giving a true picture of risk for pricing models it seems clear.

With optionality dominating markets along with quant funds, algorithms, systematic trading and automated trading volatility has collapsed as has been focused on at KnovaWave. Driving quant funds is a self-reinforcing dynamic, when market volatility drops, they add which causes those funds that have paid higher volatility to cover and hence we get the churn.

Yet analysts warn that ostensibly tranquil markets have a habit of breeding instability as investors increase their equity positions and leverage.

To break out of this requires a continuing break in a major down, or up move to ignite delta chasing or covering.

So-called vol-control and risk-parity funds, which tend to automatically load up on riskier assets during calmer periods, ramped up equity exposure, according to the Deutsche Bank data, available through May 18. Other quants, such as trend-following CTAs, or commodity trading advisers, have similarly piled in.

The dominance of quants has helped explain previous periods of calm trading, including long stretches in 2017 and 2018. Those periods were punctured by rapid selloffs, including the 2018 selloff dubbed “Volmageddon” when the dynamics exerting calm on the market suddenly went away. Some warn a repeat could be ahead.

Caitlin McCabe WSJ

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Talking about manic behavior it is not hard to argue the punter is overwhelming and influencing markets like no other time, well until the next time. Swirling greed and know it all came home to roost. FOMO (fear of missing out) and TINA (there is no alternative) ended how they always do.

Over the past five years the Vix has only been at or below a reading of 12 on 25 trading days, of which five came in January 2022 at the start of last year’s bear market, according to DataTrek. Cboe Global Markets show trading volumes in options tied to the Vix are on track to hit a record this year.

When the VIX is highly reactive, VIX related products can serve as potentially effective hedging tools, when the VIX is not very reactive, traditional hedging techniques may be a better choice.

The VOLX`s underlying instrument is the Mini VIX™ Future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility. The VIX is calculated using a formula to derive expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of out-of-the-money puts and calls (options) on the S&P 500.

Worth repeating again in the low VIX environment.

Well, 2008 redux didn’t happen in the last few months, so the Fed moves have worked for now, much to Xi and Putin’s chagrin.

The doomsayers may be right, but we are seeing constant surprises to that theory. For example, early signs that the US housing market slump is finding a base are emerging, pending home sales having risen for a third month and to a 6-month high. we will keep an eye on consumer sentiment and business activity. We are far from being out of the woods, remember the market is not the economy. Saying that we got quite the distorted job picture per our main job stories which we reprise below. Are we simply taking some air out or is the beginning of the great meltdown?

What we continue to notice is how this market is still being treated by ‘experts’ as those in the past, hence the volatility and extreme in bulls/bears. Understanding crowd behavior is essential in these markets. The moves have caught analysts and strategists by surprise with the uber bear running amok in the past few weeks. Typical thinking is this from Morgan Stanley strategists a month ago; “Given the events of the past few weeks, we think … equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates”, noting that earnings estimates were 15-20% too high even “before the recent banking events.”

What non-traders are failing to grasp is this market with so many variables is not trading as they expect and they are constantly wrong. S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter are estimated to have fallen 5% from 2022, followed by an expected 3.9% drop in the second quarter, Refinitiv data shows. During recessions, however, earnings tumble at a 24% annual rate on average, according to Ned Davis Research. However how important is that in such a chaotic market? There is the answer structure your thinking around game theory or even chaos theory.


Week Ahead: CPI, Central Banks

Eyes will be on top macroeconomic reports that will emphasize the health of the US and global economies. Eyes and ears will be on central bankers given the market turmoil and the hiking of rates.

Inflation updates will be a significant focus across a number of markets with updates to the following readings.

More Macro and Micro data points, some highlights include. US inflation numbers right before the start of the two-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday morning. CPI for the month of November is expected to be weak, but there is considerable uncertainty about how low the core measure of inflation may go. Estimated headline CPI is expected to drop -0.1% m/m SA and a deceleration in the year-over-year rate to 3.1% from 3.2% the prior month. Core CPI is estimated to fall in the 0.2–0.3% range. It wouldn’t take much tweaking to get an even lower core inflation reading. The Cleveland Fed’s ‘nowcast’ for core CPI estimates a rise of 0.3% m/m SA for the softest gain since late 2021. That measure, however, has persistently overestimated core CPI inflation throughout the past year.

Other key highlights will include US retail sales (Thursday), UK job markets (Tuesday), global purchasing managers’ indices (Thursday/Friday), Australian jobs (Wednesday), and China macro data for November (Thursday).

Earnings reports include financial figures from Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Costco (COST), FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Lennar (LEN).

How is the Consumer Hanging?

The US relies on services for up to 90% of GDP. it relies on the consumer who is being battered by the California and New York regional bank debacle. On top of that is cumbersome if not ignorant politicians, with no clear regard for main street the evidence suggests in their behavior. Key retailers all gave a cautionary note with tightened household budgets continue to hit demand for big-ticket items and curb discretionary spending.

We get more data to help us gage the consumer: Weekly MBA Mortgage, Weekly Initial and Continuing jobless claims and housing and retail sales and consumer sentiment reports.

Earnings season gives us an insight into how the consumer is coping.

Click here to see the Full Week Ahead List Below

Some things never change, when you think Greed is Good

So how Screwed are We?

  • Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded at a 5.24% annual rate, down from Q2’s 6.27%, but higher than Q3 2022’s 4.53%. (Annual NFD growth never reached 5.0% during the period 2009 through 2019.)
  • Total Household debt growth slowed from 2.71% to 2.52% during the quarter, with mortgage borrowings expanding 2.51% (down from 2.88%) and Consumer Credit slowing to 1.05% (from 2.08%).
  • For the second straight quarter, federal borrowings completely dominated NFD growth. At 10.60%, the growth in federal debt slowed from Q2’s 12.67%, but was more than double Q3 ‘22’s 4.19%.
  • In seasonally adjusted and annualized dollars (SAAR), NFD expanded $3.775 TN, down from Q2’s SAAR $4.445 TN, but ahead of Q3 ‘22’s $3.123 TN.
  • Prior to pandemic 2020’s colossal $6.804 TN, 2007 held the annual record for NFD growth at $2.529 TN. For Q3, Household Debt expanded SAAR $495 billion and Business Debt SAAR $322 billion.
  • Federal borrowing expanded SAAR $2.968 TN.
  • NFD ended the quarter at a record $72.950 TN, having expanded $3.297 TN over the past year, $7.964 TN over two years, and an incredible $17.802 TN, or 32.3%, during the past 15 quarters.
  • NFD expanded nominal $942 billion during Q3, with Treasury Securities gaining $901 billion, or 13% annualized, to a record $28.649 TN.
  • Treasuries inflated $2.180 TN over the past year, with two-year growth of a staggering $4.399 TN, or 18.1%. Over 17 quarters, Treasuries ballooned $10.835 TN, or 60.8%. Since 2007, historic excess has seen Treasury growth of $22.598 TN, or 373%.
  • Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Securities declined $70 billion (FHLB Assets contracted $50bn) to $11.902 TN. GSE Securities expanded $460 billion, or 4.0%, over the past year, and $1.366 TN, or 13.0%, over the past seven quarters. GSE Securities ballooned an unprecedented $2.638 TN, or 28.5%, over 17 quarters.
  • Combined Treasury and GSE Securities ballooned $2.640 TN over the past year, $5.766 TN over two years, and $13.473 TN (49.8%) over 17 quarters. At $40.551 TN, combined Treasury and GSE Securities ended September at 147% of GDP – up from 55% to end 2007.
  • Bank Assets contracted $132 billion during Q3 to $25.738 TN, led by a $260 billion drop in Debt Securities holdings (Agency/MBS down $193bn, Corporate Bonds $38bn, Munis $28bn).
  • Bank Loans increased $95 billion, slightly lower than Q2’s $101 billion, and down big from Q3 ‘22’s $347 billion. Bank Loans expanded a respectable $640 billion y-o-y – which compares to the annual average of $363 billion for the two-decade period 2000 to 2019.
  • Liability side of the banking system’s balance sheet, Total (Checking and Time/Savings) Deposits contracted only $49 billion, down from Q3 ‘22’s $179 billion fall and the smallest decline since Q1 2022. Total Deposits dropped $696 billion y-o-y, or 3.3%, to $20.145 TN.
  • Total Deposits were still $4.611 TN, or 29.7%, higher over 15 quarters. Net Interbank Liabilities dropped $97 billion during Q3 to $632 billion.
  • Broker/Dealer Assets declined $52 billion from Q2’s record level to $4.757 TN. Debt Securities Holdings gained $30 billion to a 14-quarter high $435 billion, with Agency Securities jumping $34 billion to a 13-quarter high $121 billion (up $52.4bn y-o-y). “Repo Assets” fell $23 billion to $1.604 TN.
  • Over the past year, Broker/Dealer Assets inflated $333 billion (7.5%), with “Repo Assets” surging $274 billion, or 20.6%. Treasury holdings jumped $121 billion, with Agency/MBS Securities rising $52 billion. Loan Assets fell $171 billion to $635 billion. After beginning 2020 at $1.073 TN, Broker/Dealer Miscellaneous Assets ended September at $1.701 TN.
  • On the Liability side, “Repo” borrowings increased $13 billion during Q3 to a 13-year high $2.067 TN. Over the past year, “Repo” borrowings surged $454 billion, or 28.1%. It’s worth noting that Broker/Dealer “Repo” borrowings surged $326 billion, or 22%, (to $1.781 TN) in the five-quarter Q1 2018 through Q2 2019 period, leading up to summer 2019 repo market instability – and the Fed’s resumption of QE.

The Credit cycle downturn is coming to the surface.

We have the reflective destabilizing Monetary Disorder. Take a peek at China and the markets collective cognitive dissonance to the property market there, the shadow banking as just one example. Have a look around the world. The hope is the collective mass continues to evolve and survive, while each time the destruction is evident in massive disproportion shifts of wealth and attempts of mind, if not physical control of the masses. Dial that back and try and get in the minds of those trying to right the ship and the market components that matter, not what the dribblers think matter.

Here’s a thought, knowing about the power of cognitive dissonance does not necessarily protect you from its effects. Traders are only too aware of this eureka moment when you grasp it. Why some of the best trades you ever do, are the ones you don’t. In option parlance, being delta neutral sometimes is the best trade.

Key this coming week will be the commencement of the next round of such indicators that will test whether these gains were one-offs or something that is sustainable. The key will be the extent to which downside risks to the US economy have been reduced enough to influence global central banks, and how markets react.

The Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle has had little effect on loose financial conditions.

Where to from here? It’s also okay to acknowledge and process any difficult emotions or experiences that you may have had during the past year. Looking back on the past year with perspective can help you to gain a greater understanding of what you have been through and how you have coped. I hope that you are able to find ways to manage any challenges that come your way and that you continue to feel fine moving forward. Embrace the chaos that is headed your way in 2023!

China; Behind the Iron Curtain

A big shift in 2022, China’s population is now falling and below that of India. China’s population fell for the first time since 1961 as births have steadily fallen in recent years despite the removal of the “one child policy”. The stalling working age population and its likely decline ahead means that potential growth in China is down from around 10% or so in the 2000s to around 4-5% now.

Growth in China’s metric of system Credit growth, Aggregate Financing, dropped to $175 billion, down significantly from March’s $773 billion and only 61% of estimates. It was also the weakest monthly growth since last October.

November 28 – Bloomberg: “China’s central bank foreshadowed a slowdown in credit extension while pledging it would press banks to lower their real lending rates, amid concerns that sluggish borrowing demand has weakened the effect of monetary easing… ‘Credit growth may slow from its previous expansion pace,” Zheshang Securities economists, including Li Chao, said… ‘China has kept the pace of credit expansion at above 10% in the past few years, and there’s now a possibility it will fall below 10% going forward.’”

November 28 – Bloomberg: “China’s deepening property rout is pushing the nation’s central bank toward a style of policy it has long criticized: Quantitative easing. Bloomberg… has reported that the People’s Bank of China may provide at least 1 trillion yuan ($140bn) in low-cost funding to construction projects via so-called Pledged Supplemental Lending. Under that program, the central bank has provided cheap long-term cash to policy banks (by accepting their loans as collateral) to fund lending to the housing and infrastructure sectors… The PSL was used between 2014 and 2019 to help fund a home building spree, leading some economists to describe it as Chinese-style QE because of the resulting creation of money and expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet. ‘After so much policy relaxation, stimulus and relief, the property sector still hasn’t shown any obvious improvement. All traditional tools have been used, so what’s left are only unconventional tools,’ said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura… ‘The possibility of using central bank funds to rescue unfinished housing projects is increasing.’”

The Market Tripod of Destruction.

  • Firstly, financial asset overvaluation has swung way past any sound underlying economic wealth structure.
  • Secondly over-leverage in crowded bets.
  • Thirdly we have greed enthused, as always in these cycles, risk engineering, transfer and management that ignores or understands bifurcation and contagion outcomes.

Leverage has become toxic, a development that if not addressed will have deep and with far-reaching sequels. It’s not too farfetched to suggest that the markets are on the verge of a rupture that would be difficult to contain. Should the crisis of confidence dynamics that hit Britain feed into other markets a powerful global contagion could be unleashed. The markets are dislocated, and financial stability is at risk. A sobering thought is the UK is just the initial first world pension system in this cycle facing the harsh reality of a steep devaluation of assets and the prospect of widespread insolvencies and debilitating negative sentiment.

Inflation Matters

Inflation with Henry Kaufman

Kaufman is the legendary chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers is someone who knows Inflation.  Henry Kaufman in an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker Jan 14, 2022:

 “I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”

“The longer the Fed takes to tackle a high rate of inflation, the more inflationary psychology is embedded in the private sector — and the more it will have to shock the system.”

“‘It’s dangerous to use the word transitory,’ Kaufman said. ‘The minute you say transitory, it means you’re willing to tolerate some inflation.’ That, he said, undermines the Fed’s role of maintaining economic and financial stability to achieve ‘reasonable non-inflationary growth.’”


Independence – Never Take It for Granted Traders

“In aggregate, the market goes from order to disorder, and on that journey little pockets of order can form, including in commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies that circle back and reorder disorder. Then there is us the market player that reflects through order and disorder in an ever-evolving loop towards independence. It all starts with gravity and ends with equilibrium and back we go.” KnovaWave “The rules of market flux”

The Fed has kicked off its first real tightening campaign since 1994, with securities markets already at the brink of illiquidity and dislocation. Markets could soon be screaming for assurances of the Fed’s “buyer of last resort” liquidity backstop, while the Fed is prepared to begin withdrawing liquidity by selling Treasuries and MBS.

Another important aspect is the Fed doesn’t Control corporate pricing or wage decisions. Let us be clear geopolitical, climate change developments and what an out of depth, politically motivated administration are outside the Fed’s sphere of influence. There has been over $5.1 Trillion new “money” in 126 weeks, it’s a reasonable conclusion the Fed has lost control of Inflation.

We need to grasp all the risks to be wary off and received plenty of flak from it. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focused on the crowd psychology aspect over the past few weeks.

“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”

– MoneyNeverSleeps

This move has crept up on many, to the extent the S&P 500’s is over the traditional measurement of a new bull market typically measured as a 20% gain from a significant low. The index above 4292.438 got that 20% move. That ended the longest bear market since 1948. The DAX and CAC40 have seen all-time highs recently also.

Our weekly reminder for risk. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.


Part A – Stock Markets

Weekly Highlights – USA

Indices

  • S&P500 added 0.2% (up 19.9% y-t-d),
  • Dow was unchanged (up 9.4%).
  • S&P 400 Midcaps increased 0.2% (up 8.3%),
  • Small cap Russell 2000 gained 1.0% (up 6.8%).
  • Nasdaq100 added 0.5% (up 47.0%).
Major US Stock Indices

YTD Report Card for the S&P Sectors

Sectors

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed with a 0.9% gain. Alphabet (GOOG) was a winning standout from the space, gaining 2.5% on the week after jumping more than 5.0% during Thursday’s session following its Gemini AI model reveal. That move helped the communication services sector to a 1.4% gain this week. The consumer discretionary sector climbed 1.1%. Meanwhile, the energy sector saw the largest decline (-3.3%) as oil prices dropped 3.5% to $71.18/bbl. The materials (-1.7%) and consumer staples (-1.3%) sectors also noticeable declines.

A breakdown of the performance of the S&P 500 sectors this week:

  • Utilities slipped 0.3% (down 12.6%).
  • Banks advanced 1.6% (down 12.1%),
  • Broker/Dealers surged 3.2% (up 15.7%).
  • Transports fell 1.6% (up 13.6%).
  • Semiconductors rose 1.0% (up 49.1%).
  • Biotechs gained 0.7% (down 6.2%).
  • With bullion dropping $68, the HUI gold equities index sank 6.4% (down 0.1%).
W/E Dec 8, 2023

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

Major US Indices

Global Stock Market Highlights

Highlights – Europe Stocks

Week/YTD

  • U.K.’s FTSE equities index increased 0.3% (up 1.4% y-t-d).
  • France’s CAC40 jumped 2.5% (up 16.3%).
  • German DAX equities index rose 2.2% (up 20.4%).
  • Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index increased 0.8% (up 24.2%).
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB index gained 1.6% (up 28.2%).

Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September 2021 adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.

Highlights – Asia Stocks

Week/YTD

  • Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index dropped 3.4% (up 23.8% y-t-d).
  • South Korea’s Kospi index increased 0.5% (up 12.6%).
  • India’s Sensex equities index rose 3.5% (up 14.8%).
  • China’s Shanghai Exchange Index dropped 2.0% (down 3.9%).

HighlightsAustralian Stocks

  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200: +0.3% on Friday to 7194.9 (+1.70% for the week)
  • Santos leaping 6.2% to $7.25 as investors cheered a possible merger with Woodside. Woodside shares eased 0.5% to $29.81 on concerns that it may leave too much on the table.
  • Iron ore prices jumped 1% on robust Chinese demand and lifted miners. On Friday Rio Tinto shares added 0.9% to $128.89, the highest level since August 2021. BHP gained 0.7% to $47.74 and Fortescue rallied 1.1 % to $25.775.

Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks

Week/YTD 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa index declined 0.9% (up 15.8%),
  • Mexico’s Bolsa index gained 0.9% (up 12.2%).
  • Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index lost 1.4% (up 43.6%).
  • Russia’s MICEX equities index fell 2.0% (up 43.0%).

Technical Analysis

S&P 500

Daily: The daily SPX closed above the previous roof (Key Spits) which were also at 7/8 and clustered around the 50% & August breakdown. With energy and with a very low VIX it has mirrored the get cloud to get through overhead. The bullish take is that we completed the correction off last year’s high at the low and this is a larger 1-2 to go higher with support at the previous resistance and cloud. The bearish outlook is this move becomes a rising wedge and we are working out the uber bears before new lows.

When we talk about crowd psychology this is a great example. The market after spitting the 4100 and 38.2% retracement broke to capture the Tenkan. This underscores the power from the SPX spat of June & October lows with impulse through the tenkan and Kijun energized by the daily cloud twist that fueled this rally. The completive wave came off extreme fear and bear that ended with relief. Now we have sated much of the greed phase and short fear phase. We have completed that cycle and from here we measure the alternatives.

It is worth looking back at the completive highs (all-time highs) and how we played out so far. Tracing back from highs the fuel from the top of the channel after completing 3 waves off ATH, accelerated after broke the Tenkan through to the 4600 OI where it reversed with impulse back to Tenkan. Bulls, this is likely a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is 1-2 of (i) completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple. From no fear to panic is the driving element.

On the downside the Kijun and those June lows now critical and is our trading Bear/Bull pivot in a high vol scenario. Watch each measured 3 wave move on the 240 & Murrey Math highlighted in the podcast. The prices pulled through the downward cloud pulled by the twist ‘helium contusion’ on the completive. For fractal purposes, SPX completed 5 waves up where it reversed with impulse. Energy fueled from the power impulse down from +1/8 ATH spit of a spit fail. On the way down (just like up) it accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then through the median after tapping 8/8.

Weekly: The SPX has a clear channel off the lows on the weekly timeframe off the sphere of influence and has ground higher since it closed over the cloud above the Tenkan. Key support is the Tenkan, channel and +1/8. Power initially came from launching out of the sphere of influence as one would expect in a 3 or C. We had the Kijun spit also. Above is the channel and +3/8.

In the bigger picture we are playing out S&P 500 energy after it held the sphere of influence from Nov 2020 reversed higher after spitting the 38% and key lows. At the time we opined “We do have a weekly cloud twist; however, the energy is waning without sharp impulse.” We got the sharp impulse right to weekly Kijun. For major cycles we watch the S&P 500 over 4,231, the 50% retracement of losses from the Jan. 3 & June 16 close. Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement then gone on to make new cycle lows. Is this time different, as we tested and spat those June lows?

On the way up each new high evolved after testing Tenkan key support on the way and we are now getting a retest as resistance. We reiterate this needs to be recovered for a resumption of the uptrend meanwhile the bear market plays out. Watch Tenkan this week and watch for Kijun reaction. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.

THE KEY: Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances.

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets

NASDAQ 100

The down move saw Nasdaq spit the weekly Kijun and a 1-2 off tenkan we spat MM 5/8 after holding the key 61.8% Fib. We watch the Tenkan & Kijun confluence above, the breakup level and between the 38/50 Fibs. The Nasdaq is well behind the S&P pace with the weekly cloud and 50wma well above. Support the 61.8% retest.

Recall ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.

Russell 2000

The small cap Russell RUT bounced in double bottom off 1600 5/8 confluence which was the Nov 2020 breakup. Russell 2000 Resistance Tenkan and Kijun, note previous rejections. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. 7/8 & 8/8 support collapsed on the way down and is now major resistance.

Russell Index Negative Divergence to NASDAQ

Dow Jones

The Dow led the indices and closed above the weekly Tenkan after closing and testing last week. Prior test after the reaction off the June lows and sphere of influence. Support is the channel and Fibs. Tenkan and Kijun after the reaction empowered. Support is the channel and Fibs.

Semiconductors

NVidia $NVDA

Nvidia NVDA stock chart

NVidia surged 179.3% in H1 2023. It has been relentless since earnings and is the focus of the AI craze. With all manic moves beware of the pullbacks and topping potential. That said the extensions have played out and so far to +2/8 on the weekly. This was a classic set up as we can see. It has a textbook of KnovaWave methodology and rules from the 61.8% break and reverse through the sphere. NVDA accelerated after it broke the double top spheres at 5/8 giving is a near 4/8 move. A reminder that the dominance was in.

NVDA took off after the breakup retest from May 2021. NVidia is a clear leader of SOX & SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes. NVDA never looked back after the Key Break (mauve) and Tenkan to a flat cloud and holding support the recent low at the 61.8% extension.

Apple $AAPL

Apple AAPL Stock Chart

Apple has consistently driven upwards after it held the sphere of influence after retesting 6/8 & break up. Kijun and Tenkan crossing and then the 50wma with the cloud twist have been magnetic. Apple & other mega-cap names dominant the major indices, and a plethora of funds that hold it as a core position. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) delta is important to watch.

A firm rejection at $175 at +2/8 triggered a waterfall down for Apple last year. We regathered that and more and broke the weekly bull flag higher. On the way up Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level on the way down these levels became key energy levels all the way to $132. Support held at the May break (just like NVDA) where from there it spat the cloud pulled by a flat Tenkan and Kijun as it rebalanced Chikou. The old channel break and MM +2/8 is now key. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.

MicroSoft MSFT

Microsoft hit a new all-time high testing the outer trend line from the previous spike. Key now is the weekly trend it has been in all year.

ExxonMobil XOM

ExxonMobil Weekly Chart

XOM has completed 5 waves from -3/8 to +3/8 on the weekly. with a double top. Alternatives 5 complete of degree. We are in a 1-2 (A-B depending on degree. Support is the cloud which has held 3 times since the high and the 50WMA resistance the tenkan and Kijun. Pattern wise we are in the bull flag until proven otherwise.


Part B: Bond Markets

Bond Watch

Treasuries

U.S. Treasuries closed the week with heavy losses flowing from the release of a stronger than expected November Jobs Report. Average hourly earnings growth (actual 0.4%; consensus 0.2%) exceeded estimates and unemployment unexpectedly fell to 3.7% from 3.9% (consensus 3.9%). There was a slight shift in rate cut expectations after the report with the market no longer expecting a cut in March, but it still sees a strong likelihood of a cut in May (78.4% vs. 89.0% yesterday).

Next week we have multiple catalysts. We start off with large Treasury auctions, Central bank overload with over a dozen central banks including; FOMC, BoK, BCB, BoE, ECB, SNB & Norges Bank Policy Announcements. Friday, we get the Quad Witching for U.S. stock markets.

Treasury Yield Watch

Friday/Week

  • 2-yr: +17 bps to 4.74% (+18 bps for the week)
  • 3-yr: +15 bps to 4.47% (+14 bps for the week)
  • 5-yr: +15 bps to 4.26% (+10 bps for the week)
  • 10-yr: +12 bps to 4.25% (+2 bps for the week)
  • 30-yr: +8 bps to 4.33% (-9 bps for the week)

Higher for longer is a serious threat. (Reprise)

Surging market yields are a serious issue for a banking system loaded with long duration securities portfolios. This may well be a push over the cliff for troubled commercial real estate (CRE). Leveraged lending and leveraged finance gets more costly. Simply there are trillions of floating rate loans among individuals, speculators, businesses, and nations.

For our complete Weekly Fixed Interest Analysis and Outlook visit our Bond Traders Weekly Outlook:

Mortgage Market

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates sank 27 bps to a 19-week low 6.80% (up 52bps y-o-y).
  • Fifteen-year rates dropped 26 bps to 6.27% (up 59bps).
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates fell 11 bps to 6.64% (up 117bps).
  • Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates down 15 bps to 7.48% (up 85bps).
Mortgage News Daily

Global Debt Monitor

Highlights Unprecedented and Ongoing Surge in Global Debt

Last week, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) released their Q1 2023 Global Debt Monitor (GDM), highlighting the unprecedented – and ongoing – surge in global debt.

GDM Highlights:

  • “The global debt stock grew by $8.3 trillion to a near-record $305 trillion in Q123; the combination of high debt levels and rising interest rates has pushed up debt service costs, prompting concerns about leverage in the financial system.”
  • “Total debt of emerging markets hit a fresh record high of over $100 trillion (or 250% of GDP) – up from $75 trillion in 2019.”
  • “At close to $305 trillion, global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly.”
  • “Rise of private debt markets: Non-bank financial institutions (NBFLs) continue to gain prominence in global credit intermediation. The so-called ‘shadow banks’ now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment and private debt markets.”
  • “The Size of Private Debt Markets Surpassed $2.1 Trillion in 2022, Up From Less Than $0.1 Trillion in 2007.”

From the end of Q3 2019 through Q1 2023, Total Global Debt jumped $52.3 TN, or 20.7%, to $305 TN.

Over this period, “Mature” economy debt expanded 13.4%, while “Emerging” economy debt surged 38.9%. It’s worth nothing that in the “Emerging” category, “Household” debt surged 41.7%, “Non-Financial Corporate” 35.1%, and “Government” 55.7%. Since 2016, total global debt-to-GDP has surged from 210% to 360%. Global financial conditions remain loose. When they inevitably tighten, be prepared for serious dislocation.


Part C: Commodities

Highlights

December 8, 2023

Key Long Term Commodity Charts

Copper

Copper Supply Crunch

Gold

China added to its gold reserves for an eighth consecutive month. People’s Bank of China holdings of bullion rose by 680,000 troy ounces last month, according to official data. That’s equivalent to 23 tons.

Gold in Perspective

Energy

For complete Oil and Natural Gas Coverage please visit our dedicated publications ‘Around the Barrel’ and ‘Into the Vortex.’ – Weekly Analysis and Outlook for Energy Traders and Investors

WTI Oil

WTI Weekly KnovaWave Shape

Natural Gas

Energy Market Closes

BDI Freight Index

Baltic Dry Index Weekly

For our complete Weekly Commodity Analysis and Outlook visit our Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook:

Charts and commentary via KnovaWave on:

  • Grains: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans
  • Metals: Copper, Aluminum
  • Precious Metals: Gold Silver
  • Lumber
  • Oil and Natural gas are covered separately (see below)

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Highlights

  • For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.7% 104.01 (up 0.5% y-t-d). 2022 gains were 8.2%
  • For the week on the upside the Japanese yen increased 1.3%.
  • On the downside, the Norwegian krone declined 2.1%, the South African rand 1.6%, the Australian dollar 1.4%, the New Zealand dollar 1.4%, the British pound 1.3%, the Swiss franc 1.2%, the euro 1.1%, the Brazilian real 1.0%, the Mexican peso 0.9%, the Swedish krona 0.9%, the Singapore dollar 0.6%, the Canadian dollar 0.6%, and the South Korean won 0.1%. The Chinese (onshore) renminbi declined 0.58% versus the dollar (down 3.79%).
Weekly Foreign Exchange Price Change

For our complete Forex Weekly Analysis and Outlook visit our Forex Traders Weekly Outlook:

Charts and commentary via KnovaWave on the US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Euro Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Turkish Lira, Mexican Peso. Currency dynamics are complex. There are myriad facets to analyze and contemplate that influence all markets.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to be plaything of levered speculators; this week we saw the markets turn against those short. Where did this come from? Forced coverage from yield curve punts blowing up. Yen shorts and levered “carry trades” at risk.

It had been a churn following the FTX collapse. BTC had been stuck in the sphere of influence in continuation awaiting a catalyst, and it came. Continues to perform technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. $BTC tested the top of a rising channel after the preceding sharp downturn which was the downside breakout of an earlier bearish flag, after breaking downside a H&S top and then down it went….

Recall Bitcoin exploded higher following it’s correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.

Bitcoin KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Looking back Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking. The high over $68,000 came after the launch over the Bitcoin ETF. From that high we have 2 main alternatives a V of a 1 of a V. For bears it a completive five with impulse right to the 50wma – an incredible 26% fall in a Friday night session. That’s impulse!

Bitcoin Mania in Perspective

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

 Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Turkey Geopolitical
Turkey Risk Monitor

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Banks

Earnings season kicks off with the major Banks each quarter:

Major US Banks for Q3, 2023

America’s big money center banks kicked off third second quarter earnings with a solid start with solid beats by JP Morgan Chase, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.

Q323 Reports

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

What Macro and Micro Risks and Opportunities Lie Ahead this week

Global Watch

Next Week’s Risk Dashboard via Scotiabank

  • Global central banks to clear the decks before the holidays
  • Patience now could offer more handsome rewards later
  • FOMC probably won’t deliver on market expectations
  • How low could US core CPI go?
  • BoC’s Macklem will probably say it’s much too soon
  • ECB—Uncle! Now what?
  • The BoE’s exercise in futility
  • The PBOC may defer to other policy levers
  • SNB likely to hold
  • Banxico only partly waiting for the Fed
  • Peru’s central bank expected to cut again
  • Norges Bank’s decision could hinge upon CPI
  • Brazil’s central bank expected to continue -50bps pace
  • Philippines’ central bank has a cagey definition of hawkish
  • CBCT likely to stay on hold
  • Russian central bank—it serves you right!
  • Global macro indicators

Central Bank Watch

In the week ahead decisions by the FOMC, ECB, BoE, PBOC, SNB, Banxico, Norges Bank’s, CBCT and central banks from Peru, Brazil, Philippines and Russia. Will there be patience or premature easing?

Eyes and ears will be on central bankers. We have the backdrop of a more hawkish Fed Chair in the face of escalating systemic risk. How will this affect Fed policy given the massive treasury positions out there and the risk of uninsured funds? In this environment we get pivots daily. How much damage is the Federal Reserve willing to do in the guise of controlling inflation?

This Week’s Interest Rate Announcements (Time E.T.)

In the week ahead we get four central bank delivering policy decision.

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

  • 14:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 16:00 Brazil Interest Rate Decision
  • 21:30 HKMA Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, December 14, 2023

  • 02:00 Philippines Interest Rate Decision
  • 03:00 Taiwan Interest Rate Decision
  • 03:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision
  • 04:00 Norway Interest Rate Decision
  • 07:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision
  • 08:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • 14:00 Mexico Interest Rate Decision
  • 18:00 Peru Interest Rate Decision

Friday, December 15, 2023

  • 05:30 Russia Interest Rate Decision

For our complete Central Bank Analysis and Outlook Visit our Central Bank Watch:

U.S. Economic Data Watch

US Data Focus

  • Monday: $50 bln 3-yr Treasury note auction results at 11:30 ET and $37 bln 10-yr Treasury note reopening results at 13:00 ET
  • Tuesday: November CPI (prior 0.0%) and Core CPI (prior 0.2%) at 8:30 ET; $21 bln 30-yr Treasury bond reopening results at 13:00 ET; and November Treasury Budget (prior -$66.6 bln) at 14:00 ET
  • Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 2.8%) at 7:00 ET; November PPI (prior -0.5% and Core PPI (prior 0.0%) at 8:30 ET; weekly crude oil inventories (prior -4.63 mln) at 10:30 ET; and December FOMC Rate Decision (prior 5.25-5.50%) at 14:00 ET
  • Thursday: Weekly Initial Claims (prior 220,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.861 mln), November Retail Sales (prior -0.1%), Retail Sales ex-auto (prior 0.1%), November Import Prices (prior -2.0%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior -0.2%), Export Prices (prior -4.9%), and Export Prices ex-agriculture (prior -1.0%) at 8:30 ET; October Business Inventories (prior 0.4%) at 10:00 ET; and weekly natural gas inventories (prior -117 bcf) at 10:30 ET
  • Friday: December Empire State Manufacturing (prior 9.1) at 8:30 ET; November Industrial Production (prior -0.6%) and Capacity Utilization (prior 78.9%) at 9:15 ET; and October Net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior -$1.7 bln) at 16:00 ET

US Stocks Watch Earnings and Event Watch

Earnings Highlights This Week:

The Q3 2023 reporting season companies reporting this week.

  • Monday includes Casey’s General Stores (CASY), Blue Bird (BLBD), Inotiv (NOTV), and Oracle (ORCL).
  • Tuesday includes FuelCell Energy (FCEL), Mama’s Creation (MAMA), EMCORE (EMKR), and Johnson Controls International (JCI).
  • Wednesday includes Adobe (ADBE), Cognyte Software (CGNT), Photronics (PLAB), REV Group (REVG), MIND Technology (MIND), Nordson (NDSN), Ocean Power Technologies (OPTT), Zedge (ZDGE), and ABM Industries (ABM).
  • Thursday includes Costco (COST), Jabil (JBL), KNOT Offshore Partners (KNOP), Mesa Air Group (MESA), Quanex Building Products (NX), and Lennar (LEN)
  • Friday includes Darden Restaurants (DRI).

Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in supply chain impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Events

Notable conferences running during the week include:

Monday

  • Poland Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is due to seek a vote of confidence for his government’s program, which he is unlikely to obtain as his Law and Justice party lost its majority in the October election. If he fails, the parliament may ask Civic Coalition leader Donald Tusk to form a government.
  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to give evidence to the British Covid inquiry, explaining his decisions as the country’s chancellor during the pandemic
  • Donald Trump is due to testify for a second time in the New York civil fraud trial where he and his family businesses are accused of inflating their net worth in order to secure loans on favorable terms and reap other economic benefits.
  • The two-day Fortune Brainstorm AI Conference in San Francisco will bring together leading executives and policymakers to examine new business cases for AI. Companies with speakers at the event include Cloudflare (NET), Accenture (ACN), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Qualcomm (QCOM), Pfizer (PFE), Best Buy (BBY), Salesforce (CRM), Walmart (WMT), PagerDuty (PD), and Amgen (AMGN).
  • Shareholders with Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (AAIC) vote on the buyout offer from mortgage REIT Ellington Financial (EFC).
  • Shareholders with RPT Realty (RPT) will vote on the $2B acquisition offer from Kimco Realty (KIM).
  • 65th ASH Annual Meeting and Exposition taking place in San Diego, California. The Hematology meeting has led to share price jolts from participants in the past. Companies due to present this year include Eli Lilly (LLY), Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO), Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS), IN8bio (INAB), Molecular Partners AG (MOLN), Rigel Pharmaceuticals (RIGL), Schrödinger (SDGR), Telomir Pharmaceuticals (TELO), Vor Biopharma (VOR), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Incyte Corporation (INCY), and Pfizer (PFE).
  • AECOM’s (ACM) Investor Day
  • Affirm Holdings’ (AFRM) fireside chat.

Tuesday

  • Egypt polls close in the presidential election. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is running for a third term in the contest, brought forward from 2024 as the country grapples with its worst economic crisis in decades
  • UAE Final day of the COP28 climate change summit in Dubai
  • Former Venezuelan military intelligence director Hugo Carvajal to appear in court ahead of a forthcoming trial on drug-trafficking charges in the US.
  • Centene’s (CNC) investor day event,
  • L3Harris Technologies’ (LHX) Investor Day,
  • Ligand Pharmaceuticals’ (LGND) Investor and Analyst Day,
  • Navitas Semiconductor’s (NVTS) Investor Day.
  • The IPO lockup period for blocks of shares of CAVA Group (CAVA) will expire. Shares of CAVA have seen some selling pressure already ahead of the lockup expiration on concerns that some insiders will cash out.

Wednesday

  • EU-Western Balkans summit opens in Belgium
  • European Court of Human Rights hearing in Strasbourg for Ukraine in its case against Russia relating to alleged violations of international law in Crimea following its annexation of the peninsula in 2014
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB) has a launch planned for its Electron rocket. The flight, which is for a Japan-based Earth-imaging company, will be the 42nd flight of the Electron rocket and the first since a launch failure in September.
  • Couchbase’s (BASE) Analyst Day,
  • U.S. Silica Holdings’ (SLCA) Investor Meeting,
  • Verint Systems’ (VRNT) Investor Day.
  • Fontainebleau Las Vegas will open its doors. The 3,644-room hotel complex will be the first new resort on the Las Vegas Strip since Resorts Worlds opened in 2021.
  • 11:00 a.m. Amdocs (DOX) will hold a webcast called “Unlocking the Transformative Power of Generative AI.”

Thursday

  • European Council meeting of EU heads of state and government, chaired by the EC President Charles Michel
  • Michael Cohen, the former lawyer and fixer for Donald Trump, will ask the 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals to revive his lawsuit accusing the former president and others of abruptly returning him to prison in retaliation for writing a tell-all memoir.
  • Chewy’s (CHWY) first investor day event in the company’s history,
  • Phillips Edison & Company’s (PECO) Investment Community Day,
  • Coherent’s (COHR) Business Update Call,
  • Schrodinger’s (SDGR) Investor Day.
  • A San Francisco court will hold a hearing on the SEC’s bid to force Elon Musk to testify in the regulator’s probe into his $44bn takeover of Twitter, now known as X
  • 8:30 a.m. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) conference call to provide an update on the company’s hematology portfolio.
  • 10:00 a.m. Intel (INTC) will hold its AI Everywhere Event. Will include the launch of 5th Gen Intel Xeon processors for data centers and Intel Core Ultra processors for laptops.

Friday

  • Last day of Hanukkah, Jewish Festival of Lights
  • Quad witching day featuring the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts.
  • The tender offer for Eli Lilly (LLY) to acquire Point Biopharma (PNT) expires. Shares of Point Biopharma traded 12% above the deal price.
  • Utz Brands (UTZ) will hold its Investor Day event
  • 8:30 a.m. FREYR Battery (FREY) will hold an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in connection with its previously announced process to redomicile from Luxembourg to the U.S.
  • Tomorrow is the 250th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party

IPO Wrap

US IPO Week Ahead:


Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2022.

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