Traders Market Weekly: Thanksgiving, a Time for Reflection

November 20-26, 2022

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community…


The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?


Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.


The week for many of us felt very much like we were in the twilight zone. What is clear is while the crypto bubble implodes, the “risk on” market rally is, understandably, making the Fed nervous. A plethora of Fed speakers have made scripted messages that rates are going higher, Hawks Bullard and Collins on Friday the latest. Whilst the melt up was fueled by short covering into Friday’s OPEX it still highlights the disconnect from the entitled risk on markets despite the FTX fraud. The midterm elections even further heightened the partisan division. Theor on top former President Trump who is hardly a uniting visionary for the GOP.

This week will be even more illiquid with so many traders out for US Thanksgiving Day, and week with Thursday a holiday and after on Friday as well given early bond (1pmET) and stock market (2pmET) closures. The big event is FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The past week’s retail earnings were mixed with Walmart and Home Depot stronger while Target shares lost almost 16% in response to theirs. Eyes will be on a combination of Black Friday through Cyber Monday sales.

FTX is a statement on who broken as a society, as a marketplace we have become:

 “The new chief executive of FTX, an insolvency professional who oversaw the liquidation of Enron, has said that the bankruptcy of the crypto group is the worst case of corporate failure he has seen in more than 40 years. John Ray III, who was appointed to run the FTX bankruptcy, said in a US court filing that he had never seen ‘such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information’. Ray said he had found at FTX international, FTX US and Bankman-Fried’s Alameda Research trading company ‘compromised systems integrity’, ‘faulty regulatory oversight abroad’ and a ‘concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals’. The scathing filing in the federal bankruptcy court in Delaware painted a picture of severe mismanagement by Bankman-Fried at FTX, which raised billions of dollars from top-tier venture capital investors such as Sequoia, SoftBank and Temasek.”

November 17 – Financial Times (Kadhim Shubber, Joshua Oliver and Sujeet Indap)

It’s noteworthy that Bullard was one of the first Fed officials that had the markets thinking “pivot” following the UK’s brush with bond market collapse. The Fed is wishful thinking if it actually believes it can fine tune these markets. We’re in a highly-charged “risk on” v. “risk off” standoff. Instability and an Accident in the Making.

ovember 18 – MarketWatch (Joseph Adinolfi): “Equity options worth $2.1 trillion in notional value are set to expire on Friday in the latest monthly event where weekly and monthly options tied to single stocks, equity indexes and exchange-traded funds expire… Every month, a team of analysts from Goldman Sachs publishes a breakdown of the options that are expiring. And one of the most notable details from this month’s report is a chart showing how much trading has shifted to options contracts with 24 hours or less left before they expire. Trading in these types of options now represents 44% of all trading in options linked to the S&P 500 index. They now trade an average of $470 billion in notional value per day…”

Existing home sales decreased 5.9% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million (consensus 4.38 million) versus an unrevised 4.71 million in September. That is the ninth straight month that existing home sales have fallen, and it is the weakest pace of sales since late 2011, excluding the 2020 pandemic period. Gold futures settled $8.60 lower (-0.5%) to $1,754.40/oz, down about -0.8% on the week, settling into a bit of a groove as investors eye the signals for the Fed’s next move on interest rates. The 10-yr Treasury note yield rose four basis points today, but fell one basis point this week, to 3.82%. The 2-yr note yield rose five basis points today, and 19 basis points this week, to 4.50%. 

The 10-yr note yield fell 31 basis points to 3.84%. The 2-yr note yield plunged 32 basis points to 4.31%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 4.0% on the week to 106.42 taking some pressure off the multinationals. The fed funds futures market now sees an 83.0% probability of a 50-basis points rate hike at the December FOMC meeting (versus 56.8% before the CPI data) and a terminal rate of 4.75-5.00% by June (versus 5.00-5.25% before the CPI data). 

What was fascinating is the FTX collapse highlighted risk, yet we saw the biggest junk-bond ETFs post record inflow. Even the Chinese developer stocks bordering on being worthless set for best week on record as a China Covid Zero pivot was punted on again.

We had surprises in the US Mid Term election with the final results of which are still unknown. Reports suggests a GOP narrow majority in the House, yet some Senate races are still too close to call. In fact, it might take the December 6 runoff election in Georgia to determine if Democrats or Republicans have control of the Senate. Ukraine had wins against Russia. Natural gas had violent swings led by a fake Freeport news story on Friday as were LMT and LLY by fake twitter impersonations. What a week to remind the broken chaos in markets at this time.

Technically you couldn’t ask for a much better set up for stocks. In the midst of extreme fear, the rally this week was clinical, last Friday the S&P500 closed right on key support after jumping 4.0% the prior last week in a two-week 8.9%’s rally. The market was incredibly one way should a dovish surprise happen, bond and currency markets had already preempted the reaction.

China Breaking Records, Not the Ones You Want

A reminder from last week:

China’s October credit growth is in quick send. China’s broad measure of Credit growth, Aggregate Financing (AG), expanded only $128 billion in October, down from September’s almost $500 billion and just over half of estimates. At $4.04 TN, y-t-d growth is almost 9% above 2021 (and down 8% from 2020, while up 34% from 2019).

New Bank Loans expanded only $86 billion (20% below estimates), down from September’s $350 billion and the weakest month of lending since December 2017. At $2.63 TN, y-t-d New Loan growth is running 6.5% ahead of 2021 (up 10.7% compared to 2020 and 31% ahead of 2019). Corporate Bank Loans dropped to $65 billion, down from September’s $270 billon (up from October 2021’s $44bn).

Consumer (chiefly mortgage) Loans were slightly negative, the first contraction since April. At $478 billion, y-t-d Consumer Loans are half of last year’s pace. 2022 Consumer Loan growth is down 44% from comparable 2019. At 6.4%, one-year growth is down from the 12.5% rate to start the year – to the weakest pace in decades.

Corporate Bonds expanded a reasonably solid $33 billion, with y-t-d growth ($262bn) down 19% and 53% from comparable 2021 and 2020. Government Bonds gained $38 billion, with y-t-d growth of $872 billion 23% ahead of 2021 (down 14% from comparable 2020). “Shadow Banking” contracted about $25 billion during October. M2 “money supply” was up 11.8% y-o-y, near the strongest growth since 2016.

Beijing Friday released a list of “20 key parameters to guide officials on the ground as it eases… Covid Zero…” Including “React quickly to outbreaks to reduce size and duration needed for pandemic control.” Sounds a lot like Covid Zero ongoing.

Liquidity Draining from the World Financial System 

“The latest bout of global financial volatility has heightened concerns about regulators’ continuing failure to resolve liquidity problems with US Treasuries — the debt that serves as a benchmark for the world. It’s getting harder and harder to buy and sell Treasuries in large quantities without those trades moving the market. Market depth, as the measure is known, last Thursday hit the worst level since the throes of the Covid-19 crisis in the spring of 2020, when the Federal Reserve was forced into massive intervention.”

October 6 – Bloomberg (Liz Capo McCormick)

November 17 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): “St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said… the central bank still has a lot of work to do before it brings inflation under control. A voting member on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, Bullard delivered remarks centered on a rules-based approach to policymaking. Using standards set by Stanford economics professor John Taylor, Bullard insisted that the moves the Fed has made so far are insufficient. ‘Thus far, the change in the monetary policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,’ he said. Even using assumptions he characterized as ‘generous’ regarding the progress the Fed has made so far in its inflation fight, he noted in a series of slides that ‘the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive.’ ‘To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further,’ he added…”

November 17 – CNBC (Jeff Cox):

The market rupture is a tripod of destruction unfolding. Firstly, financial asset overvaluation has swung way past any sound underlying economic wealth structure. Secondly over-leverage in crowded bets. Thirdly we have greed enthused, as always in these cycles, risk engineering, transfer and management that ignores or understands bifurcation and contagion outcomes.

The pattern of trashing interest rate-sensitive technology stocks and early-stage companies with no pathway to profits continued globally these issues posted huge losses again. The only support is coming from government assisted ‘fake markets’ such as solar. We all know how transitory that can be.

Leverage has become toxic, a development that if not addressed will have deep and with far-reaching sequels. It’s not too farfetched to suggest that the markets are on the verge of a rupture that would be difficult to contain. Should the crisis of confidence dynamics that hit Britain feed into other markets a powerful global contagion could be unleashed. The markets are dislocated, and financial stability is at risk. A sobering thought is the UK is just the initial first world pension system in this cycle facing the harsh reality of a steep devaluation of assets and the prospect of widespread insolvencies and debilitating negative sentiment.

More kerosene was thrown on the fire when Goldman Sachs slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 3600 from 4300, arguing that a dramatic shift in the outlook for interest rates moving higher from the FOMC will weigh on valuations for US equities.

Ahead is Thanksgiving, FOMC Minutes and Flash PMI

More central bankers:

In the US, in a market shortened Thanksgiving week FOMC meeting minutes and several speeches by Fed officials for clues are to the size of the next interest rate hike in December. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and new home sales are in focus also. We have Globally flash PMI reports and central banks in China, New Zealand, Sweden, South Korea, Turkey, Malaysia, and South Africa monetary policy announcements.

Earnings season is coming to an end, name still reporting include Agilent, Analog Devices, Dollar Tree, VMware, Deere & Company, and Pinduoduo.

Holiday shopping season in focus with Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Clearly inflation is high and volatile, but evidence of market frailties should also be treated more seriously by central banks and specifically from the standpoint of confidence in their guidance and actions. If they didn’t learn that from the taking down of a UK Chancellor, a fiscal plan, and even a Prime Minister then even we would be surprised.

Click here to see the Full Week Ahead List Below

Independence – Never Take It for Granted Traders

“In aggregate, the market goes from order to disorder, and on that journey little pockets of order can form, including in commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies that circle back and reorder disorder. Then there is us the market player that reflects through order and disorder in an ever-evolving loop towards independence. It all starts with gravity and ends with equilibrium and back we go.” KnovaWave “The rules of market flux”

The Fed has kicked off its first real tightening campaign since 1994, with securities markets already at the brink of illiquidity and dislocation. Markets could soon be screaming for assurances of the Fed’s “buyer of last resort” liquidity backstop, while the Fed is prepared to begin withdrawing liquidity by selling Treasuries and MBS.

Another important aspect is the Fed doesn’t Control corporate pricing or wage decisions. Let us be clear geopolitical, climate change developments and what an out of depth, politically motivated administration are outside the Fed’s sphere of influence. There has been over $5.1 Trillion new “money” in 126 weeks, it’s a reasonable conclusion the Fed has lost control of Inflation.


The VOLX`s underlying instrument is the Mini VIX™ Future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility. The VIX is calculated using a formula to derive expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of out-of-the-money puts and calls (options) on the S&P 500.

When the VIX is highly reactive, VIX related products can serve as potentially effective hedging tools, when the VIX is not very reactive, traditional hedging techniques may be a better choice.


Monetary inflation is running wild. In 2021 Federal Reserve Credit expanded $1.391 TN or 19% to a record $8.742 TN. The Fed’s balance sheet inflated a mindboggling $5.015 TN, or 135%, in the 120 weeks since QE was restarted in September 2019. Federal Reserve Assets have now inflated 10 times since the mortgage finance Bubble collapse.

We need to grasp all the risks to be wary off and received plenty of flak from it. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focused on the crowd psychology aspect over the past few weeks.

“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”

– MoneyNeverSleeps

Our weekly reminder for risk. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.

Part A – Stock Markets

Weekly Highlights – USA


  • S&P500 dipped 0.7% (down 16.8% y-t-d),
  • Dow was unchanged (down 7.1%).
  • S&P 400 Midcaps declined 0.8% (down 11.7%)
  • Small cap Russell 2000 fell 1.8% (down 17.6%).
  • Nasdaq100 declined 1.2% (down 28.4%).
Major US Stock Indices

US Markets YTD

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -7.1% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: -11.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -17.6% YTD
  • S&P 500: -16.8% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -28.8% YTD


  • Utilities increased 0.7% (down 5.6%).
  • Banks dropped 3.7% (down 19.9%),
  • Broker/Dealers fell 2.7% (down 3.7%).
  • Transports lost 2.1% (down 13.5%).
  • Semiconductors dipped 1.1% (down 31.0%).
  • Biotechs slipped 0.8% (down 6.0%).
  • With bullion down $21, the HUI gold equities index fell 3.2% (down 15.9%).
11 Sector SPDRs as well as the 500 component stocks last week.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

Major US Indices

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Global Stock Market Highlights

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is SP-500-Earnings-Forward.png

Highlights – Europe Stocks

  • U.K.’s FTSE equities rallied 0.9% (unchanged y-t-d).
  • France’s CAC40 gained 0.8% (down 7.1%).
  • German DAX equities index rose 1.5% (down 9.1%).
  • Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index increased 0.4% (down 6.7%).
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB index gained 0.9% (down 9.8%).

Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.

 Highlights – Asia Stocks

  • Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index declined 1.3% (down 3.1% y-t-d). 
  • South Korea’s Kospi index fell 1.6% (down 17.9%).
  • India’s Sensex equities index slipped 0.2% (up 5.9%).
  • China’s Shanghai Exchange Index increased 0.3% (down 14.9%).

 Highlights – Australian Stocks

  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2% Friday (+0.1% for the week)
  • Oz Minerals rose 3.9% to $27.30 after its board accepted an improved takeover bid from heavyweight BHP, saying that it intended to recommend the deal to shareholders. BHP gained 0.3%; Fortescue Metals up by 2.4 %

 Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks 

EM equities reacted to currency valuation

  • Brazil’s Bovespa index dropped 3.0% (up 3.9%),
  • Mexico’s Bolsa index slipped 0.7% (down 3.2%).
  • Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index gained 1.6% (up 144%).
  • Russia’s MICEX equities index dipped 0.5% (down 41.7%).

Technical Analysis

S&P 500

Daily: SPX spat the June & October lows with impulse through the tenkan and Kijun energized by the daily cloud twist. The completive wave came off extreme fear and bear that ended with relief. Recall last time we rallied through the daily Tenkan to retest May’s break. Kijun is key and we blew through it with a 1-2, the down sweep was fueled by the spit of the Kijun set the wave 3 or C up with power to close at the June lows. On the downside the Kijun and those June lows now critical and is our trading Bear/Bull pivot in a high vol scenario. Watch each measured 3 wave move on the 240 & Murrey Math highlighted in the podcast. The prices pulled through the downward cloud pulled by the twist ‘helium contusion’ on the completive.

Tracing back from highs the fuel from the top of the channel after completing 3 waves off ATH, accelerated after broke the Tenkan through to the 4600 OI where it reversed with impulse back to Tenkan Bulls this a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is 1-2 of (i) completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple resistance is Tenkan and Kijun and watch for ABC. From no fear to panic is the driving element.

For fractal purposes, SPX completed 5 waves up where it reversed with impulse with energy fueled from the power impulse down from +1/8 ATH spit of a spit fail. On the way down (just like up) it accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then through the median after tapping 8/8.

Daily S&P 500 3 waves

The breakup was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the Tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in


The S&P 500 held the sphere of influence from Nov 2020 reversed higher after spitting the 38% and key lows. Last week we said “We do have a weekly cloud twist; however, the energy is waning without sharp impulse.” We got the sharp impulse right to weekly Kijun. For major cycles we watch the S&P 500 over 4,231, the 50% retracement of losses from the Jan. 3 & June 16 close. Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement then gone on to make new cycle lows. Is this time different, as we tested and spat those June lows?

Key support is the 38% correction and the previous low. Power came from rejecting the cloud as one would expect in a 3 or C. We have Kijun. the Tenkan and 50wma all above i.e impulse right to the weekly cloud is needed for cycle switching. For that you would have to break the Kijun and 50wma.

On the way up each new high evolved after testing Tenkan key support on the way and we are now getting a retest as resistance. We reiterate this needs to be recovered for a resumption of the uptrend meanwhile the bear market plays out. Watch Tenkan this week and watch for Kijun reaction. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.

S&P500 Weekly Outlook

THE KEY: Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets


The down move saw Nasdaq spit the weekly Kijun and a 1-2 off tenkan we spat MM 5/8 after holding the key 61.8% Fib. We watch the Tenkan & Kijun confluence above, the breakup level and between the 38/50 Fibs. The Nasdaq is well behind the S&P pace with the weekly cloud and 50wma well above. Support the 61.8% retest.

Recall ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.

NASDAQ Record Highs

Dow Jones

The Dow led the indices and closed above the weekly Tenkan after closing and testing last week. Prior test after the reaction off the June lows and sphere of influence. Support is the channel and Fibs. Tenkan and Kijun after the reaction empowered. Support is the channel and Fibs.

Russell 2000

The small cap Russell RUT bounced in double bottom off 1600 5/8 confluence which was the Nov 2020 breakup. Russell 2000 Resistance Tenkan and Kijun, note previous rejections. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. 7/8 & 8/8 support collapsed on the way down and is now major resistance.

Russell Index Negative Divergence to NASDAQ

Semiconductors SMH

Semiconductors SMH clean with reaction from above reverted with retest & break of the triple top patterning in a pennant. From there been a fractal on each exhaustion. Pull from Chip players $ON $TSM $NVDA $ASML $AMD $QCOM $AVGO $TXN $INTC $AMAT $LRCX $XLNX

VanEck Vectors Semiconductors ETF

NVidia $NVDA

NVidia’s latest slide was off earnings, back to lows at 4/8 after a failed breakup retest from May 2021. NVidia is a clear leader of #SOX #SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes. Above is the Key Break (mauve) and Tenkan to a flat cloud. Support the recent low at the 61.8% extension.

Nvidia NVDA stock chart

Apple $AAPL

Heading into another Earnings Apple held the sphere of influence after retesting 7/8 & break up. Kijun and Tenkan are about to touch, with earnings we watch for a kiss of death at the cloud as the story. Apple & other mega-cap names dominant the major indices, and a plethora of funds that hold it as a core position. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) delta is important to watch.

Apple AAPL Stock Chart

A firm rejection at $175 at +2/8 triggered a waterfall down for Apple. On the way up Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level on the way down these levels became key energy levels all the way to $132. Support held at the May break (just like NVDA) where from there it spat the cloud pulled by a flat Tenkan and Kijun as it rebalanced Chikou. The old channel break and MM 8/8 is now key. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.


The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) finally found some support at -1/8, 78% off highs and the 423.6% extension! The fund is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, it has not been a pretty slide.

The ARKK ETF trading clinically, tested triangle breakdown and failed off 50 WMA. Some work at support at 61.8% of whole move and then wrecked again. Clear crowd behavior, we saw ATH in NASDAQ & SPX, yet this couldn’t raise a bid – very telling negative divergence. $ARKK rebalanced Chikou at week’s end

Ark ARKK ETF Stock Chart

ExxonMobil XOM

ExxonMobil Weekly Chart

Part B: Bond Markets

Inflation Matters

Inflation with Henry Kaufman

Kaufman is the legendary chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers is someone who knows Inflation.  Henry Kaufman in an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker Jan 14, 2022:

 “I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”

“The longer the Fed takes to tackle a high rate of inflation, the more inflationary psychology is embedded in the private sector — and the more it will have to shock the system.”

“‘It’s dangerous to use the word transitory,’ Kaufman said. ‘The minute you say transitory, it means you’re willing to tolerate some inflation.’ That, he said, undermines the Fed’s role of maintaining economic and financial stability to achieve ‘reasonable non-inflationary growth.’”

The rubber is meeting the road as the trifecta of rising interest rates, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and surging costs continues to weigh, this has been no surprise to us here and shouldn’t have been to the market and PTB. You can only play with fire for so long before you get scorched!

With all the redirection of blame at the Fed about inflation one has to understand it is a global phenomenon outside the Fed’s Control. With the war drums louder than ever the supply chain issues are out of control. The Federal Reserve is not in control of global energy and commodities prices.

Everything points to powerful inflationary dynamics and a Federal Reserve so far “behind the curve.”

Bond Watch

“This is shaping up to be the most volatile year for Treasuries in over a decade, as uncertainty about the impact of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening whipsaws yields. The yield on 10-year US notes has traded in a range of at least 10 bps in 50 of 95 trading days so far in 2022. That puts it on track for an annual rate of more than 130 episodes, which would be the highest since 2009.”

May 18 – Bloomberg (Garfield Reynolds)


Weekly Recap

U.S. Treasuries ended the week with losses across the curve. The 10-yr Treasury note yield fell one basis point this week, to 3.82%. The 2-yr note yield rose 19 basis points this week, to 4.50%. This week’s action put significant pressure on the 2s10s spread, compressing it by 20 bps to -68 bps.

Investment-grade bond funds posted outflows of $895 million, while junk bond funds reported inflows of $2.930 billion (from Lipper).

Bond Auctions

Yield Watch

  • 2-yr: +5 bps to 4.50% (+19 bps for the week)
  • 3-yr: +6 bps to 4.28% (+9 bps for the week)
  • 5-yr: +6 bps to 4.00% (+6 bps for the week)
  • 10-yr: +4 bps to 3.82% (-1 bp for the week)
  • 30-yr: +4 bps to 3.93% (-15 bps for the week)

“Government bond prices around the world are moving in tandem, reducing investors’ ability to diversify their portfolios and raising concerns of being blindsided by market gyrations. Correlations between currency-adjusted returns on the government debt of countries such as the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and Germany are at their highest level in at least seven years, data from MSCI showed, as central banks around the world ramp up their fight against inflation.”

October 10 – Reuters (Davide Barbuscia)

Key Rates and Spreads


  • 10-year Treasury bonds 3.82%, up +0.01 w/w (1-yr range: 1.08-4.22) (12 year high)
  • Credit spread 2.13%, down -0.51 w/w (1-yr range: 1.65-4.31)
  • BAA corporate bond index 5.95%, down -0.50 w/w (1-yr range: 3.13-6.59) (10 year+ high)
  • 30-Year conventional mortgage rate 6.63%, up +0.01% w/w (1-yr range: 2.75-7.38) (new 20 year high intraweek)

Yield Curve

  • 10-year minus 2-year: -0.71%, down -0.19% w/w (1-yr range: -0.71 – 1.59) (new 40 year low)
  • 10-year minus 3-month: -0.43%, down -0.06% w/w (1-yr range: -0.37 – 2.04) (new low)
  • 2-year minus Fed funds: +0.70%, up +0.18% w/w
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y)

Instability is pronounced, credit defaults are on track to rise in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, according to a survey by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers. The economic slump is likely to occur later this year or in 2023, according to the survey.

Highlights – Mortgage Market

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates jumped 13 bps to 7.08% (up 410bps y-o-y) – the high since April 2002.
  • Fifteen-year rates rose nine bps to 6.38% (up 411bps) – the high since July 2007.
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates gained 11 bps to 6.06% (up 352bps) – the high since November 2008.
  • Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates down 39 bps to 6.84% (up 379bps).
Mortgage News Daily November 4, 2022

Highlights – Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Credit declined $13.5bn last week to $8.629 TN. Fed Credit was down $272bn from the June 22nd peak. Over the past 166 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $4.902 TN, or 132%. Fed Credit inflated $5.818 Trillion, or 207%, over the past 523 weeks.
  • Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week dropped $12.3bn to $3.308 TN – the low since June 2017. “Custody holdings” were down $160bn, or 4.6%, y-o-y.
  • Total money market fund assets added $3.0bn to $4.625 TN. Total money funds were up $47bn, or 1.0%, y-o-y.
  • Total Commercial Paper increased $8.0bn to $1.304 TN. CP was up $188bn, or 16.8%, over the past year.

Global Bond Watch

Highlights – European Bonds

  • Greek 10-year yields dropped 27 bps to 4.25% (up 293bps y-t-d).
  • Italian yields sank 31 bps to 3.90% (up 273bps). Spain’s 10-year yields fell 19 bps to 3.01% (up 244bps).
  • German bund yields declined 15 bps to 2.01% (up 219bps).
  • French yields fell 19 bps to 2.48% (up 228bps).
  • French to German 10-year bond spread narrowed four to 47 bps.
  • U.K. 10-year gilt yields dropped 12 bps to 3.24% (up 227bps).

Highlights – Asian Bonds

  • Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields added a basis point to 0.25% (up 18bps y-t-d).

Federal Reserve Gives All Banks a Pass in Annual Bank Stress Test

The Federal Reserve released its annual bank stress test after the market last quarter. All 34 large banks tested remained well above their risk-based minimum capital requirements, and the Fed announced no restrictions relating to dividends and buybacks. With the dismal state of the economy through soaring inflation and record low consumer sentiment these tests were keenly watched. Banks suffered slightly more hypothetical losses in the 2022 severe test than last year, posting $612 billion in projected losses as capital ratios fell to 9.7%. Read More Here.

Part C: Commodities

“Commodity markets are struggling to shake their months-long liquidity crisis that’s brought an era of erratic swings in the value of the world’s raw materials. The giant price fluctuations that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled markets for everything from natural gas to crude oil and metals. Trading activity in most raw material markets has sunk to low levels. Open interest in oil last week hit the lowest since 2015, while natural gas, sugar and aluminum futures holdings all remain at or near the lowest levels in years. In out-of-control power and gas markets, spiking prices are limiting the number of contracts traders can hold because of surging collateral requirements. In oil, macro investors have pulled bets on raw materials as an inflation hedge after central banks began hiking rates. All the while, some traders have turned their backs on the London Metal Exchange after the crisis in nickel trading earlier this year.”

September 13 – Bloomberg (Alex Longley and Yongchang Chin)


  • Bloomberg Commodities Index fell 1.8% (up 15.8% y-t-d).
  • Spot Gold declined 1.2% to $1,751 (down 4.3%).
  • Silver dropped 3.5% to $20.942 (down 10.2%).
  • WTI crude slid $8.88 to $80.08 (up 7%).
  • Gasoline sank 7.2% (up 9%),
  • Natural Gas jumped 7.2% to $6.30 (up 69%).
  • Copper dropped 7.0% (down 18%).
  • Wheat gained 1.0% (up 7%),
  • Corn rallied 1.1% (up 13%).
  • Bitcoin declined $180 this week, or 1.1%, to $16,630 (down 64%).
Weekend November 18, 2022

BDI Freight Index

  • The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index on Friday fell about 2.5% to 1,355 points but booked its first weekly gain in five. The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, for the week, the Baltic Dry index gained 2.4%.
  • The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000 tonnes, dropped 6.5% to 1,544 points from Thursday’s two-week high; for the week a 15% jump in the capesize index
  • The Panamax index, which tracks about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains cargoes, rose 1.1%, to 1,637 points, snapping a four-session losing streak, for the week, a 3.7% fall in the panamax index.
  • The supramax index fell for a 15th straight session to 1,213 points, the lowest level since February 2021.
Baltic Dry Index Weekly

Aluminum (Alcoa)

We analyze Alcoa as a surrogate to Aluminum given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.

We have seen $AA retest the previous high after the +3 Spit as the Chikou rebalanced. We have the Gap below at +1/8 confluence. We move to 240 for this pennant resolution.



Copper rebounded sharply off the 50wma but again has failed on the cloud spit and channel break. The flattening Weekly Tenkan and Kijun acted as a magnet to close right there. #HG power spits have quickly rebalanced back into the wide channel. Copper had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities.

Weekly Copper Outlook
Copper Supply Crunch


Lumber prices were a leading indicator of the supply-chain problems and inflation that followed pandemic lockdowns.

Lumber futures for July delivery ended Friday at $695.10 per thousand board feet, down 52% from a high in early March. On-the-spot wood prices have plunged, too. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks cash sales, fell about 12% last week to end at $794. That is down from $1,334 in March, just before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.

Lumber Futures



KnovaWave analyze US Wheat futures given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.

Wheat closed under the Tenkan this week again after its recent rally was reversed between the 50 and 61.8% Fibs. It had been drawn higher by the flat weekly cloud and supported by 0/8 which held. The contract stabilized after it continued its sharp impulsive collapse fueled from when it retested and broke the Tenkan (orange). This came about after a failure at retesting the 8/8 move and high after it spat 8/8, and the minimum target. It had completed a measured 4/8 correction off highs then broke key support at 38% then 50% and 50wma confluence in the freefall. From here Wheat support at that $700 cloud confluence with the breakup level at 61.8% resistance, then Kijun and Tenkan.


Full Report:


Corn replicated last week’s price action as it recovered from its freefall in June it has worked its way up spitting off Kijun at the 7/8 near the top of the weekly cloud after Tenkan and 50wma was recaptured last month. Earlier in the year Corn had topped out at the highest since 2012 in Chicago at +1/8 and corrected with impulse back to break the Tenkan which it swiftly did a spit of a spit after bouncing off 720, which also the price successfully retested the high from April 2021. From here we saw Tenkan fail again, and empowered selling smashed through previous high, Kijun and 7/8 confluence. Which is back where we are. The 50wma is now support with the cloud and 6/8 below. All these levels are now significant.

Corn Futures Outlook

Full Report:


Soybeans rejected new lows at the bottom of trendline to close higher on the week. The 50 wma and the tenkan are both under the Kijun providing heavy resistance. We sit near the January breakup. The weekly cloud and Murray mingle around the $13.9/bushel benchmark.

Recall beans broke down from the bull pennant framed by +4/8 and +1/8 with the Kijun unable to sustain support right at the breakout. Support at the 50wma gave way to under the futures pivot at $15/bushel benchmarks and at the close of the week was a magnet to the recovery bounce. Pressure came from futures spitting the Weekly +4/8 over $17.50/bushel three times. The market needs to rebalance that energy.

Soybeans Weekly Outlook

Full Report:


For complete Oil and Natural Gas Coverage please visit our dedicated publications ‘Around the Barrel’ and ‘Into the Vortex.’ – Weekly Analysis and Outlook for Energy Traders and Investors

WTI Weekly KnovaWave Shape
US Natural Gas KnovaWave Weekly Grid

Key Energy Reports

Precious Metals

  • Spot Gold declined 1.2% to $1,751 (down 4.3%).
  • Silver dropped 3.5% to $20.942 (down 10.2%).


“Central banks bought a record 399 tonnes of gold worth around $20 billion in the third quarter of 2022, helping to lift global demand for the metal, the World Gold Council (WGC) said… Demand for gold was also strong from jewellers and buyers of gold bars and coins, the WGC said in its latest quarterly report, but exchange traded funds (ETFs) storing bullion for investors shrank… Buying by central banks in the third quarter far exceeded the previous quarterly record in data stretching back to 2000 and took their purchases for the year to September to 673 tonnes, more than the total purchases in any full year since 1967…”

November 1 – Reuters (Peter Hobson):

Gold futures back testing the median after another rejection at the Tenkan (orange). Needs gets impulse off this ABC off this cloud or double top gains more weight and it follows silver weakness The yellow metal is consolidating after it accelerated after breaking the weekly triangle higher. Gold has bounced after support at it’s uptrend line since the August 2021 bottom and Kijun. It garnered strength after rebalancing after manic rise to +5/8 weekly rebalance of Chikou in 5 waves. To be bullish we need to stay above the triangle. Murrey Math resistance, watch Fibs & Chikou.

Gold Weekly
Gold in Perspective


Silver, like Gold bounced under the cloud base. Back underr 50wma after spitting Tenkan providing support after reversed. Closing under weekly Kijun which is now resistance. Major support is previous lows

Silver Weekly Outlook

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”


  • For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index added 0.6% to 106.93 (up 11.8% y-t-d).
  • For the week on the upside, the New Zealand dollar increased 0.7%, the British pound 0.5% and the Mexican peso 0.3%
  • On the downside the Norwegian krone declined 2.6%, the Swedish krona 2.4%, the South Korean won 1.6%, the Swiss franc 1.4%, the Japanese yen 1.1%, the Brazilian real 0.9%, the Canadian dollar 0.7%, the Australian dollar 0.5%, the Singapore dollar 0.3%, the euro 0.2% and the South African rand 0.1%. The Chinese (onshore) renminbi declined 0.32% versus the dollar (down 10.73% y-t-d).
Weekend November 11, 2022

For our complete Forex Weekly Analysis and Outlook visit our Forex Traders Weekly Outlook:

Charts and commentary via KnovaWave on the US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Euro Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Turkish Lira, Mexican Peso. Currency dynamics are complex. There are myriad facets to analyze and contemplate that influence all markets.


Bitcoin sank $4,400 this week, or 20.7%, to $16,800 (down 64% YTD following the FTX collapse. BTC had been stuck in the sphere of influence in continuation awaiting a catalyst. Continues to perform technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. $BTC tested the top of a rising channel after the preceding sharp downturn which was the downside breakout of an earlier bearish flag, after breaking downside a H&S top and then down it went….

Recall Bitcoin exploded higher following it’s correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.

Looking back Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking. The high over $68,000 came after the launch over the Bitcoin ETF. From that high we have 2 main alternatives a V of a 1 of a V. For bears it a completive five with impulse right to the 50wma – an incredible 26% fall in a Friday night session. That’s impulse!

Bitcoin KnovaWave Weekly Outlook
Ethereum Weekly
Bitcoin Mania in Perspective

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

 Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Turkey Geopolitical
Turkey Risk Monitor

Economic and Geopolitical Watch


Major banks kicking off earnings this quarter, including BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), First Republic Bank (FRC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

Major US Banks Deliver Mixed Results in Q3, 2022

The major money cents banks released earnings with many strong results for Q3. Mainly from the interest rate spreads on the positive side. We see a reversal of loss reserve releases from the pandemic kitty as the economy slides into recession.

Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital.

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

What Macro and Micro Risks and Opportunities Lie Ahead this week

Global Watch

Next Week’s Risk Dashboard via Scotiabank

  • This could be an earlier, stronger holiday shopping season…
  • …as buy early sentiment and World Cuponomics…
  • … combine with Black Friday, Cyber Monday
  • The week’s second half may be ripe for volatility trades
  • FOMC minutes: in case you didn’t hear them the first time
  • BoC guidance may focus on stability, wages
  • Canada’s dubious international standing on wage pressures
  • Will the RBNZ take a more hawkish turn?
  • Bank of Korea likely to downshift
  • Riksbank: hard to be more hawkish than markets
  • PBoC likely to leave LPRs unchanged
  • Turkey’s rate cuts to keep fanning inflation
  • PMIs are signalling a worldwide contraction
  • US cap-ex investment still a bright spot?
  • Canadian retail sales transition to the holiday season
  • Light global inflation, GDP updates

Global Central Bank Watch

There are only three central banks on next week and none of them are likely to deliver decisions that will be impactful to global markets.

Fed Reserve’s speakers return. Multiple regional Fed district bank Presidents will give their interpretations of the Fed’s recent actions.

Monday, Nov. 21

  • 03:00 ECB Supervisory Board Member Fernandez-Bollo Speaks
  • 04:05 BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
  • 12:30 German Buba President Nagel Speaks

Tuesday, Nov. 22

  • 02:00 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
  • 08:30 German Buba Beermann Speaks
  • 11:00 FOMC Member Mester Speaks
  • 12:00 BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
  • 12:30 EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks
  • 13:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
  • 14:15 FOMC Member George Speaks
  • 14:45 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 20:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 4.25% 3.50%
  • 20:00 RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
  • 20:00 RBNZ Rate Statement
  • 21:00 RBNZ Press Conference

Wednesday, Nov. 23

  • 03:30 ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
  • 04:00 ECB Supervisory Board Member Fernandez-Bollo Speaks
  • 04:45 MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
  • Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • 05:30 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
  • 07:30 German Buba Beermann Speaks
  • 07:30 German Buba Wuermeling Speaks
  • 08:45 BoE MPC Member Mann
  • 09:00 German Buba Beermann Speaks
  • 10:30 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
  • 14:00 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
  • 14:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 16:30 BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
  • 16:30 BoC Gov Macklem Speaks1
  • 20:00 BOK Financial Stability Board Meeting
  • 20:00 Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

Thursday, Nov. 24

  • 04:45 MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
  • 05:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
  • 05:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
  • 05:00 German Buba Wuermeling Speaks
  • 05:30 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
  • 06:15 ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
  • 07:30 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 08:00 ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
  • 08:00 SARB Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
  • 08:15 ECB’s Enria Speaks
  • 08:45 BoE MPC Member Mann
  • 11:00 German Buba President Nage

Friday, Nov. 25

  • 03:50 ECB’s Supervisory Board Member Jochnick Speaks
  • 12:00 ECB’s De Guindos Speaks

Economic Data Watch

US Data Focus

  • Monday: $42 bln 2-yr Treasury note auction results at 11:30 ET and $43 bln 5-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
  • Tuesday: $35 bln 7-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
  • Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 2.7%) at 7:00 ET; weekly Initial Claims (prior 222,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.507 mln), October Durable Orders (prior 0.4%), and Durable Orders ex-transportation (prior -0.5%) at 8:30 ET; preliminary November IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 50.4) and preliminary November IHS Markit Services PMI (prior 47.8) at 9:45 ET; October New Home Sales (prior 603,000) and final November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (prior 54.7) at 10:00 ET; weekly crude oil inventories (prior -5.40 mln) at 10:30 ET; weekly natural gas inventories (prior +64 bcf) at 12:00 ET; and October FOMC Minutes at 14:00 ET
  • Thursday: Bond and equity markets closed for Thanksgiving
  • Friday: Bond market to close at 14:00 ET and equity market to close at 13:00 ET

Global Data Focus

  • Canada CDN CPI could be another hot one. Ontario fiscal update
  • Europe: ECB publishes its monetary policy meeting accounts on Thursday. Flash S&P Global PMI data. German Gfk consumer confidence index and French consumer confidence. Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany; alongside France’s jobless data and Euro Area current account. Central Bank of Turkey is expected to cut its interest rate by 150bps to 9% to end the rate-cutting cycle, while Sweden’s central bank is set to raise the borrowing cost.
  • UK: November’s flash PMI data is expected to show a reduction in UK private sector output for the fourth month running,
  • China: People’s Bank of China is expected to keep benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for the third month in its upcoming meeting, as the recent pressure on the yuan makes policymakers averse to loosening monetary conditions.
  • Japan:  Jibun Bank flash PMIs for November.
  • Asia Monetary policy decisions from central banks in South Korea, Malaysia, and Israel, in addition to November business and consumer confidence for South Korea and third-quarter growth data for Thailand.
  • Australia: Flash PMI data for November, after the composite reading from last month pointed to the first contraction since January.
  • New Zealand RBNZ is expected to raise its cash rate by 75bps, the fastest rate hike since the start of its 325bps tightening cycle. NZ balance of trade for October and retail sales for the third quarter.

Earnings and Event Watch

US Stocks Watch

Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Analysts are expecting same-quarter seasonally unadjusted earnings to be up by only about 3% y/y from about 10% in Q2 as the softening economy and higher borrowing costs bite. FactSet expects the softest earnings growth by this measure since the early days of recovery in 2020 Q3.


  • Monday. The quiet period on Mobileye Global (MBLY) ends to free up analysts to post ratings.
  • Tuesday Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) has a shareholder meeting set to vote on extending the period of time for completing its SPAC deal. Former President Donald Trump announced he was running for President again. $10B acquisition of Zendesk (ZEN) by Permira and Hellman & Friedman is scheduled to close. Needham Consumer Tech/E-Commerce Virtual Conference. MYT Netherlands Parent B.V. (MYTE), ACV Auctions (ACVA), Revolve Group (RVLV), Etsy (ETSY), Redfin (RDFN), TrueCar (TRUE), Petco Health and Wellness Company (WOOF), and EBET (EBET).
  • Wednesday Autonomous Vehicles Europe 2022 Exhibition and Conference will take place in Berlin, Germany. BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Volvo Cars (OTCPK:VOLAF) and Thoughtworks Holding (TWKS)
  • Thursday Thanksgiving Day holiday.
  • Friday The Phoenix Auto Show will include an appearance by Polestar (PSNY). 1:00 p.m. The U.S. stock market will close early.


Earnings Highlights This Week:

  • Monday includes J.M. Smucker (SJM), Agilent (A), Dell (DELL) Urban Outfitters (URBN), Zoom Video (ZM). Niu Technologies (NIU).
  • Tuesday includes Baidu (BIDU), Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), HP Inc. (HP), Analog Devices (ADI), Autodesk (ADSK) Nordstrom (JWN)
  • Wednesday includes Deere (DE) and Full Truck Alliance (YMM).
  • Thursday includes Thanksgiving Day; U.S. markets will be closed
  • Friday includes U.S. stock market will close early.
For Q3 2022, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 2.9%. If 2.9% is the actual
growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%).

IPO Wrap

US IPO Week Ahead:

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2022.

-comment section below data-

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by

Subscribe and Follow

Find us at

Follow our contributors on Twitter @traderscom @thepitboss16 @knovawave @ClemsnideClem

Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!