Traders Market Weekly: Rates, Banks and Herd Mentality

January 24, 2024

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Rates, Banks and Herd Mentality

The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?


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Another week, another record high as the feral bull market of 2024 marches on. The three major US indices hit new record highs. The S&P 500 closed over 5,200 for the first time with a 2.3% gain this week, Nasdaq Composite leapt another 2.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose another 2.0%. Mega cap stocks continue to have had an outsized impact on markets. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 2.5% this week whereas the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 1.4% this week.

It was a big week for central bank meetings, there was the Fed but also the Swiss National Bank’s surprise rate cut, a dovish pivot by the Bank of England, and for the first time since 2016, BOJ raised so there’s a positive policy rate in Japan. The Reserve Bank of Australia released its biannual financial stability report, which noted that risks remain elevated and warned of a potential spillover from the Chinese property sector.

Jay Powell and the FOMC dot plot in the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) was the root cause of the week’s market rally. The Fed still anticipates three rate cuts this year despite recent inflation readings coming in hotter than expected.

  • The Fed revising up its GDP forecasts, revising down its expectations for unemployment, and holding its interest rate forecasts steady, the central bank more or less issued an “all clear” on the economic story for 2024.
  • The Fed raised its expectations for economic growth in 2024, but still expects it will be necessary to cut rates three times this year.
  • The Fed raised its expectations for economic growth in 2024, but still expects it will be necessary to cut rates three times this year.

Our take here is highlights to us the Fed is not just focused on inflation but risks such as the commercial real estate debacle. the high US dollar and the massive Federal debt refunding cost. It did not go unnoticed only one of the S&P 500 sectors fell on the week, real estate (-0.4%). The leaders were the communication services (+4.8%), industrials (+2.9%), information technology (+2.9%), and consumer discretionary (+2.8%) sectors.

Treasuries reacted accordingly. The 2-yr note yield, which tracks expectations for the fed funds rate, declined 12 basis point to 4.60% and the 10-yr note yield fell eight basis points to 4.22%. Rate cut expectations moved up this week, contributing to the positive bias in the stock market. The implied likelihood of a June cut rose to 75.4% from 58.8% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”

– MoneyNeverSleeps

Reddit Fever

When speculation runs hot IPOs often do too and this week, we saw that. Social media platform Reddit (RDDT) began trading on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday. Shares closed at $45.94 on Friday, giving the company a market cap of $7.3 billion. On Wednesday night, the IPO priced at $34 per share, netting $748 million in proceeds. Back in 2021, Reddit raised $410 million at a valuation north of $10 billion.

Since the Fed’s December “dovish pivot”

  • S&P500 jumped 17.2%.
  • The Semiconductor Index surged 25.3%,
  • NYSE Arca Computer Technology Index 19.0%.
  • Nvidia has almost doubled at up 98%, with Meta up 52%, Micron 41%, and Netflix 36%.
  • Investment-grade spreads (to Treasuries) dropped from 1.04 to 0.88 – outside of a couple of months in 2021, the narrowest since March 2007 (20-year avg. 1.49).
  • High yield spreads collapsed from 3.63 to 2.92 – that, excluding the six months beginning in June 2021, are the narrowest since July 2007 (20-yr avg. 4.93).
  • “The tightest spreads on AA bonds since 2005” and “Single B Spread Index Makes New 16 year Low.”
  • Gold prices have rallied $185, or 9.4% to $2,165, trading this week to an all-time high $2,221.

We need to grasp all the risks to be wary of but not ignore price reaction. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focus on the crowd psychology aspect.

Our weekly reminder for risk, timely given the V shape to ATH in just a week. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.

PART A – Stock Markets

Highlights – USA

  • S&P500 gained 2.3% (up 9.7% y-t-d)
  • Dow rose 2.0% (up 4.7%)
  • S&P 400 Midcaps rose 2.3% (up 7.5%)
  • Small cap Russell 2000 gained 1.6% (up 2.2%)
  • Nasdaq100 advanced 3.0% (up 9.0%)
  • Utilities rallied 1.5% (up 1.4%).
  • Banks surged 3.7% (up 5.9%),
  • Broker/Dealers gained 1.8% (up 8.0%).
  • Transports recovered 3.3% (up 0.7%).
  • Semiconductors rallied 3.2% (up 17.5%).
  • Biotechs increased 1.2% (down 2.8%).
  • While bullion rose $10, the HUI gold index declined 0.9% (down 5.2%).
Major US Stock Indices

Highlights – Europe Stocks

  • U.K.’s FTSE equities index jumped 2.6% (up 2.6% y-t-d).
  • France’s CAC40 slipped 0.2% (up 8.1%).
  • German DAX equities index rose 1.5% (up 8.7%).
  • Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index jumped 3.3% (up 8.3%).
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB index gained 1.2% (up 13.2%).

 Highlights – Asia Stocks

  • Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index surged 5.6% (up 22.2% y-t-d).
  • South Korea’s Kospi index rallied 3.1% (up 3.5%).
  • India’s Sensex equities index increased 0.3% (up 0.8%).
  • China’s Shanghai Exchange Index slipped 0.2% (up 2.5%).

 Highlights – Australian Stocks

  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: Friday -0.2 per cent to 7770.6 (+1.5% for the week).
  • Singapore April iron ore futures Friday fell 3.1% to $US106.40. BHP down 0.8% to $40.29 and Fortescue Metals off 2.1% to $24.64.
  • Gold price eased to $US2180 an ounce after resetting its record high, still up near 10% since mid-February. Gold stocks were among the worst performers Friday. Bellevue Gold dropped 5.3% to $1.885, Genesis Minerals lost 6.3% to $1.80.

 Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks 

  • Brazil’s Bovespa index increased 0.3% (down 5.3%),
  • Mexico’s Bolsa index gained 0.8% (down 1.4%).
  • Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index jumped 3.2% (up 22.0%).
  • Russia’s MICEX equities index declined 0.8% (up 5.6%).

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

Technical Analysis 

Technical Analysis of key markets via KnovaWave

S&P 500

Daily: We saw a violent ABC for the 5 waves up for SPX continue right into bottom of the median line to give us an (a) or C of a 4. with impulse after completing 5. Reversed hard with energy fueled from the power impulse down from near +1/8 ATH. On the way up (just like down) It accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then the Kijun to close back over the median and 8/8. Bulls this was a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is a a-b of a C off a completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. Will determine if sharp ABC completed off all time highs around +1/8. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun and watch for ABC. No fear is the driving element.

Daily S&P 500 Flat Top Triangle

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the Tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in

Weekly: The weekly shows us the reenergized SPX tripped in 3 to test recent break up at Tenkan from there we had had a powerful rally to ATH. Again notice what happened “Each new high has evolved after testing Tenkan key support which is the next line after Friday’s dump & minor bounce.” We watch for a spit of a spit Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.

S&P500 Weekly Outlook

Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat  “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances

Dow Jones

DJIA Weekly


Nasdaq move to ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. From there we sold off right to Tenkan (as did SPX) and bounced hard Support Tenkan to Kijun. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.

NASDAQ Record Highs

Russell 2000

The small cap Russell RUT has been developing a large flag which it did a false break to fuel the selling from there we replicated to the down (Adam’s theory). Unlike SPX and NDX we could not get through Tenkan and Kijun which rejected the bounce. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Closed right at the top of the cloud and at the channel. the flag. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. Support +1/8 through 7/8 (cloud base)

Russell Index Negative Divergence to NASDAQ

US Stocks Watch

Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Microsoft MSFT

VanEck Vectors Semiconductors ETF

NVidia $NVDA

Following the announcement of NVDA 4/1 split some levels off the energy break NVidia hasn’t looked back with many gaps below. We saw another power move off the $200 retest (old $800) & earnings off $300 which are retesting. It is a clear leader of #SOX #SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes.

Nvidia NVDA stock chart

Apple $AAPL

Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level. These levels will be key energy levels. Support from previous highs, resistance now Fibs and Murrey Math levels. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.

Apple AAPL Stock Chart

Meta $META

Exxon Mobil $XOM

Exxon Stock Chart

Part B: Bond Markets

Highlights – Treasuries

  • Total money market fund assets dropped $61.9bn to $6.046 TN. Money funds were up $1.032 TN, or 20.6%, y-o-y.
  • Total Commercial Paper surged another $35.9bn to an almost 15-year high $1.329 TN. CP was up $211bn, or 18.9%, over the past year.
  • 2-yr: -3 bps to 4.60% (-12 bps for the week)
  • 3-yr: -4 bps to 4.37% (-13 bps for the week)
  • 5-yr: -5 bps to 4.20% (-12 bps for the week)
  • 10-yr: -5 bps to 4.22% (-8 bps for the week)
  • 30-yr: -5 bps to 4.39% (-4 bps for the week)

All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported record corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity, funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. The combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory. What we are seeing now is the same risk, on steroids is in the commercial real estate market (CRE).

Fed Total Assets

Highlights – Mortgage Market

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates jumped 13 bps to 6.87% (up 48bps y-o-y).
  • Fifteen-year rates gained five bps to 6.21% (up 59bps).
  • Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up nine bps to 7.19% (up 31bps).

Highlights – Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Credit declined $12.4bn last week to $7.493 TN.
  • Fed Credit was down $1.396 TN from the June 22nd, 2022, peak. Over the past 236 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $3.767 TN, or 101%.
  • Fed Credit inflated $4.683 TN, or 167%, over the past 593 weeks.
  • Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt increased $1.7bn last week to $3.349 TN.
  • “Custody holdings” were up $39.9 billion y-o-y, or 1.2%.

We do know we have massive speculation pockets, viz a viz the Semi stocks and cryptocurrency mania in just the matter of weeks. The Fed is effectively throwing additional fuel on historic speculative manias. Central banks have been adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure.

Highlights – European Bonds

  • Italian yields declined six bps to 3.64% (down 6 bps y-t-d).
  • Greek 10-year yields fell six bps to 3.36% (up 31bps).
  • Spain’s 10-year yields dropped nine bps to 3.16% (up 17bps).
  • German bund yields fell 12 bps to 2.32% (up 30bps).
  • French yields declined eight bps to 2.80% (up 24bps).
  • French to German 10-year bond spread widened four to 48 bps.
  • U.K. 10-year gilt yields sank 17 bps to 3.93% (up 39bps).

Highlights – Asian Bonds

  •  Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields declined five bps to 0.74% (up 13bps y-t-d).

Part C: Commodities


  • The Bloomberg Commodities Index slipped 0.5% (up 0.1% y-t-d).
  • Spot Gold added 0.4% to $2,165 (up 5.0%). Silver fell 2.0% to $24.67 (up 3.7%).
  • WTI crude dipped 41 cents, or 0.5%, to $80.63 (up 13%).
  • Gasoline added 0.7% (up 30%),
  • Natural Gas increased 0.2% to $1.66 (down 34%).
  • Copper retreated 2.0% (up 4%).
  • Wheat rallied 5.0% (down 12%),
  • Corn increased 0.6% (down 7%).
  • Bitcoin sank $6,250, or 9.0%, to $63,350 (up 49%).

BDI Freight Index

  • The Baltic Exchange Dry Index dropped by 44 points, or 2%, to 2,196 on Friday, extending losses for a fourth day to a fresh low since March 6th. On the week, the BDI dropped 7.8%, after six straight weeks of gains.
  • The capesize index plummeted by 106 points, or 3%, to 3,482. Average daily rates for capesize vessels decreased by $877 to $28,875.
  • The panamax index fell by 39 points or 1.8% to 2,165. Average daily rates for panamax vessels fell $315 at $19,483
  • The supramax index saw a slight increase of 4 points, 1,383. On the week, the Baltic index dropped 7.8%, after six straight weeks of gains. Source: Baltic Exchange
Baltic Dry Index Weekly


Copper rebounded sharply off the 50wma pulled up by the flattening Tenkan and Kijun to close right at the channel break – a key juncture. #HG shrugged off demand concerns from resurgence in Covid-19 supply disruptions. The power spits of +8/8 and +2/8 were rebalanced by the Tenkan breaking the Kijun with 50wma and cloud below. Copper had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities.

Corn Futures Outlook


Soybeans finally found bids after hitting weekly lows well under weekly cloud and well under 50wma to close over the weekly Tenkan, Kijun and 50wma. – Watch for impulse

Soybeans Weekly Outlook


US Crude Oil (WTI)


On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. The completion in 5 waves saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or a? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with gid above

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

WTI Daily KnovaWave


WTI crude Oil futures continues to correct the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs. Long term 61.8% target fueled by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Weekly Tenkan & Kijun closed touching the 6a.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun.

WTI Weekly KnovaWave Shape

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)


US Natural Gas completed 3 waves correcting the daily 8/8 spit after a classic euphoria wave 5. However, it was rejected hard at the Kijun and cloud top at 6/8. Meaning that 3 was either an a of a C or a iii – impulse in a nutshell. The adjunct failure of the 50dma and Tenkan opened up the retest of 3.80-3.60.

Notice the fractals of the move after completing the C of 4 bullish scenario played out the consolidation phase since it completed its IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. For the bulls all this needs to hold for the highs to be a (iii) looking at possibilities we have the 161.8% at 7.026 if we get ‘silly’ 50dma support.

US Natural Gas KnovaWave Daily Grid

Like the larger wave on the way up it accelerated through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and new highs. We successfully tested that break in a pennant ABC. Previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and 8/8 and new highs underscore the structure that fed the move and is key longer term.

Weekly:  The classic double top playing out after a spit of the weekly Kijun was sent back off Tenkan only to reverse all the way to and through the 50wma. Natural gas continued to retrace with impulse after reaching its major target, the double top potential from 2014 which equated nicely to over 8/8 Weekly and showed true impulse off that to rebalance Chikou. It’s now a question of degree, 3 or 5? Impulse just shy of the 8/8 and Tenkan confluence. A question of continuation with the 50wma as resistance and cloud as support.

US Natural Gas KnovaWave Weekly Grid

Recall the impulse wave powered from the spit of 50wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan.  This was energized with a series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is Fib/Murrey confluence, support Tenkan, Kijun – as always count your ABC’s

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”


  • For the week the U.S. Dollar Index gained 1.0% to 104.43 (up 3.1% y-t-d. 
  • On the upside, None seen
  • On the downside the Swedish krona declined 1.9%, the Japanese yen 1.6%, the New Zealand dollar 1.5%, the Swiss franc 1.5%, the South African rand 1.4%, the Norwegian krone 1.3%, the British pound 1.1%, the Singapore dollar 0.8%, the euro 0.7%, the Australian dollar 0.7%, the South Korean won 0.6%, the Canadian dollar 0.5%, the Mexican peso 0.3%, and the Brazilian real 0.1%. The Chinese (onshore) renminbi declined 0.45% versus the dollar (down 1.79% y-t-d).

 Australian Dollar – AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar is still correcting since completing a 5 at the pysch 80 level to fall under the weekly cloud in emotive fashion. The Australian dollar fell to test of the August lows of 0.7106 with Omicron fears. Should that double bottom go support ia the Murrey Math Levels. Resistance the Cloud, Tenkan and Kijun like many commodities.

Australian Dollar KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Chinese Yuan – USDCNH

The Kiwi mirrored the AUD in its wave (iii) spit and has corrected at the cloud much of the FOMO muster wave and retested the 50% Fib & 4/8 confluence. Kijun and Tenkan Resistance, which is pivotal. Support previous break spits.

Canadian Dollar – USDCAD

The Loonie is holding the Tenkan after a 3 year high in June and corrected that in 3 waves led by the AUD and NZD. #oil price impacting direction. Watch flat Kijun and Tenkan at -1/8. Use Fibs for support and resistance.

New Zealand Dollar KnovaWave Weekly Outlook


Euro continues to correct in what seems like eternal flags in the channel. We watch if Kijun (pink) testing Tenkan (orange) creates any impulse as #EURUSD consolidates in the cloud. Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility.  

Euro KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

British Pound – USDGBP

British pound classic retest of daily cloud break with magnet pull of cloud twist after ABC correction – will need Tenkan to break through Kijun for more strength. The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.

British Pound KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Japanese Yen – USDJPY

USDJPY broke above i after weakness with Treasury yields to rush to +2/8 and channel convergence at 115.00. With that resistance the weekly chart is showing a bearish engulfing bar taking in over a month of price to close right above the Tankan should that go a re-test of 112 is alive The 108.00 level should remain massive support for dollar-yen. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun as it breaks through the old channel. Use your USDJPY Murrey 4/8 8/8 grid for now. EURJPY AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

Japanese Yen v Dollar KnovaWave Weekly Outlook


Bitcoin is performing technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. Bitcoin exploded higher following its correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.

Bitcoin KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

We have seen what you would expect from a 5-wave impulse peak and ABC correction, a violent correction and completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algorithms control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves. From there prices agitated towards those ATHs as news of a Bitcoin ETF fueled the rally, sound familiar? But this time it wasn’t signaling we are in a 3 high probability but a 5.

On the Risk Radar

Akio Morita mistakes

 Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

Watch Earnings, Central Bankers and Geopolitics speeches, reports and rate moves. 

In the week ahead, we get Good Friday holiday-shortened trading week as we end a strong first quarter of the year. Highlights include more Fed speak post FOMC, PCE, and GameStop earnings.

US Economic Highlights

The week’s key highlight comes Friday morning with financial markets closed for Good Friday when the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is released. This report contains “core” PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure. Economists expect “core” PCE inflation rose 0.3% over the prior month in February and 2.8% over the prior year. The Fed, you’ll recall, targets 2% inflation.

  • Monday: February New Home Sales (consensus 680,000; prior 661,000) at 10:00 ET
  • Tuesday: February Durable Orders (consensus 1.3%; prior -6.1%), Durable Orders ex-transportation (consensus 0.4%; prior -0.3%) at 8:30 ET; January FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 0.1%) and January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (consensus 6.7%; prior 6.1%) at 9:00 ET; March Consumer Credit (consensus 106.7; prior 106.7) at 10:00 ET
  • Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -1.6%) at 7:00 ET; weekly crude oil inventories (prior -1.95 mln) at 10:30 ET
  • Thursday: Q4 GDP — third estimate (consensus 3.2%; prior 3.2%), Q4 GDP Deflator — third estimate (consensus 1.7%; prior 1.6%), Weekly Initial Claims (consensus 213,000; prior 210,000), and Continuing Claims (prior 1.807 mln) at 8:30 ET; final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (consensus 76.5; prior 76.5) and February Pending Home Sales (consensus 2.1%; prior -4.9%) at 10:00 ET; weekly natural gas inventories at 10:30 ET
  • Friday: *Bond and equity markets closed for Good Friday* February advance goods trade deficit (prior $90.2 bln), advance Wholesale Inventories (prior -0.3%), advance Retail Inventories (prior 0.5%), February Personal Income (consensus 0.4%; prior 1.0%), Personal Spending (consensus 0.4%; prior 0.2%), PCE Prices (consensus 0.4%; prior 0.3%), and Core PCE Price Index (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%) at 8:30 ET

Bond market Highlights

  • Monday: $66 bln 2-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
  • Tuesday: $43 bln 5-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
  • Wednesday: $43 bln 7-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
  • Thursday: Treasury market to close at 14:00 ET

Central Bank Highlights

Only two regional central banks decisions this week while there will be light communications from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada among others.

  • Sweden’s Riksbank policy decision on Wednesday. It’s expected to hold its policy rate unchanged at 4% again. The bias and refreshed explicit forward guidance on the policy rate will be the key. They will be published in an updated Monetary Policy Report with this meeting.
  • The South African Reserve Bank policy decision on Wednesday. No change in the repo rate of 8.25% is expected but the bias will be carefully monitored. February’s headline CPI reading moved up to 5.6% y/y and is threatening the upper end of SARB’s 3–6% inflation target range.

US Earnings Highlights

  • Monday starts us off with No notable companies set to report results.
  • Tuesday includes McCormick (MKC), GameStop (GME), nCino (NCNO), Progress Software (PRGS)
  • Wednesday Includes Carnival (CCL), Lands’ End (LE), Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), RH (RH), Braze (BRZE), Rumble (RUM)
  • Thursday includes Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)
  • Friday Markets closed for Good Friday.

US IPO Week Ahead

  • Phase 1 oncology biotech Boundless Bio (BOLD) plans to raise $100 million at a $396 million market cap. The company is focused on developing therapies for oncogene amplified tumors by targeting extrachromosomal DNA (ecDNA).
  • Singapore-based telehealth company Mobile-health Network Solutions (MNDR) plans to raise $10 million at a $153 million market cap. The company provides services through its MaNaDr platform, where users throughout the APAC region can access a range of telehealth solutions, comprising teleconsultation services and personalized services.
  • Australia-based fitness program provider Alta Global Group (MMA) plans to raise $7 million at a $58 million market cap. Alta offers a platform for martial arts and combat sports, featuring four core products: the Warrior Training Program, UFC Fight Fit Program, Alta Academy, and the Alta Community. To date, the company has monetized its Warrior Training Program.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2024. One suspects it will be a yearlong Groundhog Day for Biden, Trump, the GOP and the Democrats.  Throw on top of that Russia/Ukraine Israel/Gaza and China/Taiwan.

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