May 21-27, 2023

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community…

The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?

Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

• Part A: Stock markets
• Part B: Bonds
• Fed and Banks
• Part C: Commodities
• Energy – Oil and Gas
• Gold and Silver
• Part D: Foreign Exchange
• Geopolitics and Economics
• Economy Week ahead

Editorial

Markets churned with the renewed debt ceiling theatrics and a confused, some would say out of touch G-7 that unnerved bonds and currency markets. Meanwhile the immediate FOMO stock markets went along with the little fear pattern. The continued outperformance of mega cap stocks supported the major U.S. indices all booking gains this week, ending a six-week lull for the S&P 500 where it neither gained nor declined more than 1.0%. The S&P 500 hit a new closing high for the year on Thursday (4,199) and a new intraday high for the year on Friday (4,212). The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 2.9% and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose 1.0%. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 gained 1.7%.

The big moves were elsewhere however, indicating how far the U.S. has fallen behind and the political leadership, if that is what you can call it is damaging the US. Japan’s Nikkei Index Up 18.1%, has almost doubled the S&P500’s y-t-d gain. Strong 2023 advances in Europe include Germany’s DAX up 16.9%, France’s CAC40 15.7%, Italy’s MIB 16.1%, and Spain’s IBEX 12.4%. France and Germany have booked new all-time highs.

Renewed Debt Ceiling Theatrics

The US Treasury’s cash position is rapidly falling as the cost of insuring against default on US government debt obligations remains high.

Back in January…. “The United States is on track to add nearly $19 trillion to its national debt over the next decade, $3 trillion more than previously forecast, as a result of rising costs for interest payments, veterans’ health care, retiree benefits and the military, the Congressional Budget Office said”

Treasury Secretary Yellen, who is more disconnected from main street by the hour, put an X date on the economy with the debt ceiling. At the same time the blame is constantly put on ‘the others’ with no solution. The bond and currency markets have reacted, with US CDS spiking on a chance there will not be a deal. (see chart below).

We saw the debt ceiling reached on January 19, prompting the Treasury to begin employing extraordinary measures that should prevent a technical default until early June. The expectation this is all political showboating, but what if it more than that?

Global Debt Monitor

Highlights Unprecedented and Ongoing Surge in Global Debt

This week, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) released their Q1 2023 Global Debt Monitor (GDM), highlighting the unprecedented – and ongoing – surge in global debt.

GDM Highlights:

• “The global debt stock grew by $8.3 trillion to a near-record $305 trillion in Q123; the combination of high debt levels and rising interest rates has pushed up debt service costs, prompting concerns about leverage in the financial system.”
• “Total debt of emerging markets hit a fresh record high of over $100 trillion (or 250% of GDP) – up from $75 trillion in 2019.”
• “At close to $305 trillion, global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly.”
• “Rise of private debt markets: Non-bank financial institutions (NBFLs) continue to gain prominence in global credit intermediation. The so-called ‘shadow banks’ now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment and private debt markets.”
• “The Size of Private Debt Markets Surpassed $2.1 Trillion in 2022, Up From Less Than $0.1 Trillion in 2007.”

From the end of Q3 2019 through Q1 2023, Total Global Debt jumped $52.3 TN, or 20.7%, to $305 TN.

Over this period, “Mature” economy debt expanded 13.4%, while “Emerging” economy debt surged 38.9%. It’s worth nothing that in the “Emerging” category, “Household” debt surged 41.7%, “Non-Financial Corporate” 35.1%, and “Government” 55.7%. Since 2016, total global debt-to-GDP has surged from 210% to 360%. Global financial conditions remain loose. When they inevitably tighten, be prepared for serious dislocation.

How is the Consumer Hanging?

Last we got as look where the consumer is, we saw US April retail sales stronger than expected, but retail sales are not adjusted for inflation and total retail sales were basically flat after adjusting for inflation, suggesting weaker demand than the headline number might imply.

The May NAHB Housing Market Index 50 came in higher (consensus 45); Prior 45. US housing starts showed single-family starts and permits were up, a welcome sign given the tight supply of existing homes for sale. The constraints of high financing rates and high prices are evident in single-unit starts being down 28.1% year-over-year and single-family permits being down 21.2% year-over-year. April Existing Home Sales 4.28 mln (consensus 4.30 mln); Prior was revised to 4.43 mln from 4.44 mln, a recognition that the inventory of existing homes for sale remains tight.

Weekly initial jobless claims 242K (consensus 259K); Prior 264K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.799 mln; Prior was revised to 1.807 mln from 1.813 mln show levels closer to signaling tightness in the labor market, which means the Fed is likely to stick to its tighter policy for longer.

For a clearer look we get earnings reports from key retailers such as Lowes (LOW), Best Buy (BBY), Costco (COST), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Big Lots’ (BIG), Kohl’s (KSS) and Dollar Tree’s (DLTR). They are likely to be on song with last week’s reports from Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Ross Stores (ROST), Burberry (BURBY), BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ), Copart (CPRT), and Foot Locker (FL). They, particularly FL gave a cautionary note with tightened household budgets continue to hit demand for big-ticket items and curb discretionary spending.

The US relies on services for up to 90% of GDP. it relies on the consumer who is being battered by the California and New York regional bank debacle. On top of that is cumbersome if not ignorant politicians, with no clear regard for main street pushing towards a debt ceiling.

Where is the fear?

We got some movement this past week out of the tight range in markets but as we can see from the VIX chart it quickly reverted back after the initial breaks. We are aware of built-up energy ahead of key central bank decisions from this week and potential fundamentals to set-up rate hikes or not. There is discontent globally with central Banks.

Markets are largely pricing for no additional rate increases, though the rates market did end the week with a 13% probability of a 25-bps hike at the FOMC’s June 14th meeting. This prices a 5.10% implied rate. Markets ended the week pricing a 95-bps rate reduction by the January 31, 2024 meeting (over about seven months). From the Fed’s point of view Fed governor Michelle Bowman was out Friday: “The most recent inflation and employment reports have not provided consistent evidence that inflation is on a downward path… Should inflation remain high and labor market remain tight, additional monetary policy tightening will likely be appropriate…

A point well made over at Scotiabank last week which helps explain price action. There is a difference between marking down risk appetite within functioning markets—which is happening—versus widespread market dysfunction that can be destabilizing or lead to outright dysfunction—which is not happening to this point.

Talking about manic behavior it is not hard to argue the punter is overwhelming and influencing markets like no other time, well until the next time.

When the VIX is highly reactive, VIX related products can serve as potentially effective hedging tools, when the VIX is not very reactive, traditional hedging techniques may be a better choice.

The VOLX`s underlying instrument is the Mini VIX™ Future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility. The VIX is calculated using a formula to derive expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of out-of-the-money puts and calls (options) on the S&P 500.

Ahead is Deja Vu: Debt Ceiling, Consumer Updates

Eyes will be on top macroeconomic reports that will emphasize the health of the US and global economies. Eyes and ears will be on central bankers given the market turmoil and the hiking of rates.

This week will place much of the focus upon debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. It is the last full week during which to strike an agreement and have enough time to pass votes in the House of Representatives and the Senate before Treasury Secretary Yellen’s June 1st marker on the calendar, after which the potential risks and difficult decisions intensify.

How Hot is the American Economy?

More Macro and Micro data points, some highlights include:

• Monday:
• Tuesday: Flash PMI, new home sales. Fed’s Logan makes welcoming remarks on day two of a conference on technology-enabled disruption hosted by the Richmond Fed
• Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage, housing starts and weekly crude oil inventories
• Thursday: Weekly Initial and Continuing jobless claims, and weekly natural gas inventories.
• Friday:

Swirling greed and know it all came home to roost. FOMO (fear of missing out) and TINA (there is no alternative) ended how they always do.

Earnings season continues with Nvidia (NVDA), more tech names Zoom Video (ZM), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Workday (WDAY), Intuit (INTU), Marvell Technology (MRVL) and UiPath (PATH). Retailers with Lowe’s (LOW) Best Buy (BBY), AutoZone (AZO), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Kohl’s (KSS), American Eagle (AEO), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), VF Corp. (VFC) The Gap (GPS) Dollar Tree (DLTR), BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) and Burlington Stores (BURL) Click here to see the Full Week Ahead List Below

A reminder in these markets don’t get married to a view, leave biased partisan opinions at the door and find a leader. Right now, NVDA is giving us a good indicator of crowd behavior. Note the divergence and convergence with it and other instruments. Be proactive.

Worth repeating again in the low VIX environment.

Well, 2008 redux didn’t happen in the last few weeks, so the Fed moves have worked for now, much to Xi and Putin’s chagrin.

The doomsayers may be right, but we are seeing constant surprises to that theory. For example, early signs that the US housing market slump is finding a base are emerging, pending home sales having risen for a third month and to a 6-month high. we will keep an eye on consumer sentiment and business activity. We are far from being out of the woods, remember the market is not the economy. Saying that we got quite the distorted job picture per our main job stories which wee reprise below. Are we simply taking some air out or is the beginning of the great meltdown?

What we continue to notice is how this market is still being treated by ‘experts’ as those in the past, hence the volatility and extreme in bulls/bears. Understanding crowd behavior is essential in these markets. The moves have caught analysts and strategists by surprise with the uber bear running amok in the past few weeks. Typical thinking is this from Morgan Stanley strategists; “Given the events of the past few weeks, we think … equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates”, noting that earnings estimates were 15-20% too high even “before the recent banking events.”

What non-traders are failing to grasp is this market with so many variables is not trading as they expect and they are constantly wrong. S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter are estimated to have fallen 5% from 2022, followed by an expected 3.9% drop in the second quarter, Refinitiv data shows. During recessions, however, earnings tumble at a 24% annual rate on average, according to Ned Davis Research. However how important is that in such a chaotic market? There is the answer structure your thinking around game theory or even chaos theory.

So how Screwed are We?

• The banking system is on much greater Credit risk than mortgage risks were offloaded during the 2008 mortgage finance Bubble. At $25.6 TN, Banking System Assets ended 2022 almost double the 2007 level.
• Financial Sector debt growth jumped to a 9.66% rate last year, the strongest since 2007’s 13.50% Z.1 data showed. Now we are looking at this given the quick demise of regional banks and the concerns of the commercial structure. Why? we simple note a jump in Financial Sector borrowings signals a surge in risk intermediation. Is this fateful late-cycle intermediation gong to haunt the financial sector and economy when the Bubble bursts.
• If it doesn’t burst well, we circle back to the popular view that Financial Sector debt included in analysis would be “double counting” borrowings already included elsewhere (i.e. mortgage and business). The swift end to backs, the shocking management out there and geopolitical cold war out there has us ready to expect the unexpected and aware of moves to mitigate by Central banks as we saw a few weeks ago.
• GSE Assets expanded an unprecedented $2.094 TN, or 29.4%, over the past three years to a record $9.224 TN. FHLB Assets surged $524 billion, or 72%, in 2022, with indications for Q1 growth upwards of (yes) $400 billion.
• FHLB plays a pivotal role, last year prolonging the lending boom and last month stabilizing bank liquidity.

The Credit cycle downturn is coming to the surface.

We have the reflective destabilizing Monetary Disorder. Take a peek at China and the markets collective cognitive dissonance to the property market there, the shadow banking as just one example. Have a look around the world. The hope is the collective mass continues to evolve and survive, while each time the destruction is evident in massive disproportion shifts of wealth and attempts of mind, if not physical control of the masses. Dial that back and try and get in the minds of those trying to right the ship and the market components that matter, not what the dribblers think matter.

Here’s a thought, knowing about the power of cognitive dissonance does not necessarily protect you from its effects. Traders are only too aware of this eureka moment when you grasp it. Why some of the best trades you ever do, are the ones you don’t. In option parlance, being delta neutral sometimes is the best trade.

Key this coming week will be the commencement of the next round of such indicators that will test whether these gains were one-offs or something that is sustainable. The key will be the extent to which downside risks to the US economy have been reduced enough to influence global central banks, and how markets react.

Some things never change, when you think Greed is Good

Annualizing the New York Fed’s Q4 household borrowing data, Credit card debt expanded at a 26% pace and total debt at a 9.5% rate during the quarter. The Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle has had little affect on loose financial conditions.

Where to from here? It’s also okay to acknowledge and process any difficult emotions or experiences that you may have had during the past year. Looking back on the past year with perspective can help you to gain a greater understanding of what you have been through and how you have coped. I hope that you are able to find ways to manage any challenges that come your way and that you continue to feel fine moving forward. Embrace the chaos that is headed your way in 2023!

China; Behind the Iron Curtain

A big shift in 2022, China’s population is now falling and below that of India. China’s population fell for the first time since 1961 as births have steadily fallen in recent years despite the removal of the “one child policy”. The stalling working age population and its likely decline ahead means that potential growth in China is down from around 10% or so in the 2000s to around 4-5% now.

Growth in China’s metric of system Credit growth, Aggregate Financing, dropped to $175 billion, down significantly from March’s $773 billion and only 61% of estimates. It was also the weakest monthly growth since last October.

“China is warning domestic brokerages not to spread information that compromises national security, reinforcing a campaign that has roiled consulting firms and providers of financial data.”

• “The Chinese economy’s debt ratio reached a record high in the first quarter of the year, with bank loans to companies surging as the nation reopened from Covid Zero. The macro leverage ratio — or total debt as a percentage of gross domestic product — soared to 279.7% in the first quarter… That was an increase of 7.7 percentage points from the previous quarter, the biggest jump in three years. The debt ratio held by non-financial corporates rose 5.8 percentage points. Leverage ratios for the household and government sectors were each up by around 1 percentage point. The data doesn’t include bank loans to local government financing vehicles.” May 7 – Bloomberg
• “Across China, many local governments are on the brink of insolvency. Some cities have reduced pay for civil servants. Cuts to municipal health insurance have triggered street protests. Central government bailouts are a possibility to rescue cities from their deep budget problems, but China hasn’t turned to a source of revenue that would be an obvious option in other countries: property taxes. In China, where the government owns the land, localities almost never tax homeowners to support services like schools. Cities rely instead on selling long-term leases to real estate developers. Revenue from these land sales has plunged in the past year.” May 11 – New York Times (Keith Bradsher)

The Market Tripod of Destruction.

• Firstly, financial asset overvaluation has swung way past any sound underlying economic wealth structure.
• Secondly over-leverage in crowded bets.
• Thirdly we have greed enthused, as always in these cycles, risk engineering, transfer and management that ignores or understands bifurcation and contagion outcomes.

Leverage has become toxic, a development that if not addressed will have deep and with far-reaching sequels. It’s not too farfetched to suggest that the markets are on the verge of a rupture that would be difficult to contain. Should the crisis of confidence dynamics that hit Britain feed into other markets a powerful global contagion could be unleashed. The markets are dislocated, and financial stability is at risk. A sobering thought is the UK is just the initial first world pension system in this cycle facing the harsh reality of a steep devaluation of assets and the prospect of widespread insolvencies and debilitating negative sentiment.

Inflation Matters

• US Producer Price Inflation Moderates Again in April, +2.3% versus +2.7% in March
• Consumer Inflation in April Eases with Fed Screws Tightening, Core CPI Stays Elevated
• US Core PCE Inflation Held Steady at Persistently High Levels in March
• US Producer Price Inflation Fell Again in March, -0.5% m/m vs 0.0% Expected
• Consumer Inflation in March Eases, Higher Shelter Prices Offsetting Fall in Energy Costs
• FAO World Food Price Index Fell in March for Twelfth Consecutive Month

Inflation with Henry Kaufman

Kaufman is the legendary chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers is someone who knows Inflation.  Henry Kaufman in an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker Jan 14, 2022:

 “I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”

“The longer the Fed takes to tackle a high rate of inflation, the more inflationary psychology is embedded in the private sector — and the more it will have to shock the system.”

“‘It’s dangerous to use the word transitory,’ Kaufman said. ‘The minute you say transitory, it means you’re willing to tolerate some inflation.’ That, he said, undermines the Fed’s role of maintaining economic and financial stability to achieve ‘reasonable non-inflationary growth.’”

Independence – Never Take It for Granted Traders

“In aggregate, the market goes from order to disorder, and on that journey little pockets of order can form, including in commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies that circle back and reorder disorder. Then there is us the market player that reflects through order and disorder in an ever-evolving loop towards independence. It all starts with gravity and ends with equilibrium and back we go.” KnovaWave “The rules of market flux”

The Fed has kicked off its first real tightening campaign since 1994, with securities markets already at the brink of illiquidity and dislocation. Markets could soon be screaming for assurances of the Fed’s “buyer of last resort” liquidity backstop, while the Fed is prepared to begin withdrawing liquidity by selling Treasuries and MBS.

Another important aspect is the Fed doesn’t Control corporate pricing or wage decisions. Let us be clear geopolitical, climate change developments and what an out of depth, politically motivated administration are outside the Fed’s sphere of influence. There has been over $5.1 Trillion new “money” in 126 weeks, it’s a reasonable conclusion the Fed has lost control of Inflation.

We need to grasp all the risks to be wary off and received plenty of flak from it. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focused on the crowd psychology aspect over the past few weeks.

“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”

– MoneyNeverSleeps

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Our weekly reminder for risk. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.

Part A – Stock Markets

Weekly Highlights – USA

Indices

• S&P500 gained 1.6% (up 9.2% y-t-d),
• Dow added 0.4% (up 0.8%).
• S&P 400 Midcaps gained 1.0% (up 1.0%),
• Small cap Russell 2000 rallied 1.9% (up 0.7%).
• Nasdaq100 jumped 3.5% (up 26.2%).

Sectors

• Utilities sank 4.4% (down 7.5%).
• Banks rallied 5.8% (down 23.8%),
• Broker/Dealers rose 3.0% (down 1.4%).
• Transports advanced 0.9% (up 3.9%).
• Semiconductors surged 7.8% (up 26.5%).
• Biotechs rose 2.0% (up 2.6%).
• With bullion down $33, the HUI gold equities index dropped 5.4% (up 9.9%).

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

Global Stock Market Highlights

Highlights – Europe Stocks

Week/YTD

• U.K.’s FTSE equities index was unchanged (up 4.1% y-t-d).
• France’s CAC40 gained 1.0% (up 15.7%).
• German DAX equities index jumped 2.3% (up 16.9%).
• Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index increased 0.2% (up 12.4%).
• Italy’s FTSE MIB index added 0.6% (up 16.1%).

Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September, 2021 adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.

Highlights – Asia Stocks

Week/YTD

• Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index surged 4.8% (up 18.1% y-t-d).
• South Korea’s Kospi index rallied 2.5% (up 13.5%).
• India’s Sensex equities index dipped 0.5% (up 1.5%).
• China’s Shanghai Exchange Index increased 0.3% (up 6.3%).

Highlights – Australian Stocks

• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200: +0.6% 7279.5 Friday, (+0.5% for the week)
• Friday advancers saw financials sector up 1.5%, CBA up 1.8%, NAB up 1.5%, Macquarie up 1.7%.
• Gold miners extended losses gold miners. Newcrest down 1.9%, Northern Star down 1% and Evolution Mining down 1.6%. Coal miners also weighed on the index as Whitehaven shed 4.3% and Yancoal fell 2%.

Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks

Week/YTD 

• Brazil’s Bovespa index rose 2.1% (up 0.9%),
• Mexico’s Bolsa index declined 1.2% (up 12.0%).
• Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index sank 6.1% (down 18.3%).
• Russia’s MICEX equities index rose 2.4% (up 21.9%).

Technical Analysis

S&P 500

Daily: The daily SPX closed again under the Key Spits roof under the 50% & August breakdown as it has coiled since the October Spit. We have energy and with a very low VIX it needs to get past the cloud twist to get through overhead otherwise this becomes a rising wedge. The market after spitting the 4100 and 38.2% retracement broke to capture the Tenkan. This underscores the power from the SPX spat of June & October lows with impulse through the tenkan and Kijun energized by the daily cloud twist that fueled this rally. The completive wave came off extreme fear and bear that ended with relief. Now we have sated much of the greed phase and short fear phase. We have completed that cycle and from here we measure the alternatives.

Tracing back from highs the fuel from the top of the channel after completing 3 waves off ATH, accelerated after broke the Tenkan through to the 4600 OI where it reversed with impulse back to Tenkan. Bulls, this is likely a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is 1-2 of (i) completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple resistance is Tenkan and Kijun and watch for ABC. From no fear to panic is the driving element.

On the downside the Kijun and those June lows now critical and is our trading Bear/Bull pivot in a high vol scenario. Watch each measured 3 wave move on the 240 & Murrey Math highlighted in the podcast. The prices pulled through the downward cloud pulled by the twist ‘helium contusion’ on the completive.

For fractal purposes, SPX completed 5 waves up where it reversed with impulse. Energy fueled from the power impulse down from +1/8 ATH spit of a spit fail. On the way down (just like up) it accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then through the median after tapping 8/8.

Weekly: The SPX closed over the cloud this week and with 8 sessions (weeks) above the Tenkan +1/8 we come into pivotal time, the VIX and outside events align with this. Eyes up traders! Key support is the 50wma Tenkan and +1/8. Power initially came from launching out of the sphere of influence as one would expect in a 3 or C. We had the Kijun spit also. Above is the channel and +2/8, above the weekly cloud is needed for cycle switching.

In the bigger picture we are playing out S&P 500 energy after it held the sphere of influence from Nov 2020 reversed higher after spitting the 38% and key lows. At the time we opined “We do have a weekly cloud twist; however, the energy is waning without sharp impulse.” We got the sharp impulse right to weekly Kijun. For major cycles we watch the S&P 500 over 4,231, the 50% retracement of losses from the Jan. 3 & June 16 close. Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement then gone on to make new cycle lows. Is this time different, as we tested and spat those June lows?

On the way up each new high evolved after testing Tenkan key support on the way and we are now getting a retest as resistance. We reiterate this needs to be recovered for a resumption of the uptrend meanwhile the bear market plays out. Watch Tenkan this week and watch for Kijun reaction. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.

THE KEY: Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets

NASDAQ 100

The down move saw Nasdaq spit the weekly Kijun and a 1-2 off tenkan we spat MM 5/8 after holding the key 61.8% Fib. We watch the Tenkan & Kijun confluence above, the breakup level and between the 38/50 Fibs. The Nasdaq is well behind the S&P pace with the weekly cloud and 50wma well above. Support the 61.8% retest.

Recall ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.

Dow Jones

The Dow led the indices and closed above the weekly Tenkan after closing and testing last week. Prior test after the reaction off the June lows and sphere of influence. Support is the channel and Fibs. Tenkan and Kijun after the reaction empowered. Support is the channel and Fibs.

Russell 2000

The small cap Russell RUT bounced in double bottom off 1600 5/8 confluence which was the Nov 2020 breakup. Russell 2000 Resistance Tenkan and Kijun, note previous rejections. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. 7/8 & 8/8 support collapsed on the way down and is now major resistance.

Semiconductors

NVidia $NVDA

NVidia surged 90% in Q! 2023. The Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX) Index returned 27.6% for the quarter, with the Nasdaq Computer Index up 25.7% and the NYSE Arca Technology Index gaining 26.1%. The Nasdaq100 (NDX) jumped 20.5%. NVDA took off after the breakup retest from May 2021. NVidia is a clear leader of SOX & SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes. NVDA never looked back after the Key Break (mauve) and Tenkan to a flat cloud and holding support the recent low at the 61.8% extension.

Apple $AAPL

Heading into another Earnings Apple held the sphere of influence after retesting 7/8 & break up. Kijun and Tenkan are about to touch, with earnings we watch for a kiss of death at the cloud as the story. Apple & other mega-cap names dominant the major indices, and a plethora of funds that hold it as a core position. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) delta is important to watch.

A firm rejection at $175 at +2/8 triggered a waterfall down for Apple. On the way up Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level on the way down these levels became key energy levels all the way to $132. Support held at the May break (just like NVDA) where from there it spat the cloud pulled by a flat Tenkan and Kijun as it rebalanced Chikou. The old channel break and MM 8/8 is now key. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.

ARKK ETF

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) finally found some support at -1/8, 78% off highs and the 423.6% extension! The ARK Innovation ETF returned 29% for Q1 2023. The fund is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, it has not been a pretty slide. For the quarter, Nasdaq Computer Index up 25.7% and the NYSE Arca Technology Index gaining 26.1%. The Nasdaq100 (NDX) jumped 20.5%.

The ARKK ETF trading clinically, tested triangle breakdown and failed off 50 WMA. Some work at support at 61.8% of whole move and then wrecked again. Clear crowd behavior, we saw ATH in NASDAQ & SPX, yet this couldn’t raise a bid – very telling negative divergence. $ARKK rebalanced Chikou at week’s end

ExxonMobil XOM

Part B: Bond Markets

Bond Watch

Treasuries

U.S. Treasuries ended the week mixed with the sixth consecutive loss for the 5-yr note through to longer tenors. Treasury yields moving lower in response to debt ceiling and regional bank worries. This week’s fall was paced by shorter tenors keeping the yield curve under pressure, compressing the 2s10s spread by six basis points for the second consecutive week, to -58 bps. The US 2-year yield rose 29 basis points on the week trading at 4.27%. The high yield reached 4.349% the highest level since March 15, 2023.

Treasury Yield Watch

Friday/Week

• 2-yr: UNCH at 4.27% (+29 bps for the week)
• 3-yr: +2 bps to 3.96% (+29 bps for the week)
• 5-yr: +5 bps to 3.75% (+30 bps for the week)
• 10-yr: +4 bps to 3.69% (+23 bps for the week)
• 30-yr: +5 bps to 3.95% (+17 bps for the week)

For our complete Weekly Fixed Interest Analysis and Outlook visit our Bond Traders Weekly Outlook:

Mortgage Market

• Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose eight bps to 6.51% (up 126bps y-o-y).
• Fifteen-year rates gained five bps to 5.80% (up 137bps).
• Five-year hybrid ARM rates surged 26 bps to 5.99% (up 191bps).
• Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up 14 bps to 7.01% (up 164bp

Part C: Commodities

Highlights

• The Bloomberg Commodities Index was little changed (down 10.4% y-t-d).
• Spot Gold declined 1.6% to $1,978 (up 8.4%).
• Silver slipped 0.5% to $23.85 (up 0.4%).
• WTI crude recovered $1.51, or 2.2%, to $71.55 (down 11%).
• Gasoline rallied 6.0% (up 5%),
• Natural Gas surged 14.1% to $2.59 (down 42%).
• Copper was little changed (down 2%).
• Wheat dropped 4.7% (down 23%)
• Corn sank 5.4% (down 18%).
• Bitcoin gained $155, or 0.5%, this week to $26,890 (up 62%).

Key Long Term Commodity Charts

Copper

Gold

Gold futures for June gold on Friday closed down off last week’s surge to $2,072.19 on Thursday, just shy of its record high of $2,072.49, following the Fed’s hint that its hiking cycle may be ending.

China raised its gold holdings by about 8.09 tons in April, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Total stockpiles now sit at about 2,076 tons, after China increased reserves by about 120 tons in the five months through March.

Energy

For complete Oil and Natural Gas Coverage please visit our dedicated publications ‘Around the Barrel’ and ‘Into the Vortex.’ – Weekly Analysis and Outlook for Energy Traders and Investors

WTI Oil

Natural Gas

BDI Freight Index

For our complete Weekly Commodity Analysis and Outlook visit our Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook:

Charts and commentary via KnovaWave on:

• Grains: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans
• Metals: Copper, Aluminum
• Precious Metals: Gold Silver
• Lumber
• Oil and Natural gas are covered separately (see below)

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Highlights

• For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.5% to 103.20 (down 0.3% y-t-d). 2022 gains were 8.2%
• For the week on the upside, the New Zealand dollar increased 1.5%, the South Korean won 0.6%, the Canadian dollar 0.3%, and the Australian dollar 0.1%.
• On the downside, the Norwegian krone declined 1.8%, the Japanese yen 1.7%, the Brazilian real 1.5%, the Swedish krona 1.5%, the Mexican peso 1.1%, the South African rand 0.6%, the Singapore dollar 0.5%, the euro 0.4%, the Swiss franc 0.2%, and the British pound 0.1%. The Chinese (onshore) renminbi declined 0.75% versus the dollar (down 1.62%).

For our complete Forex Weekly Analysis and Outlook visit our Forex Traders Weekly Outlook:

Charts and commentary via KnovaWave on the US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Euro Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Turkish Lira, Mexican Peso. Currency dynamics are complex. There are myriad facets to analyze and contemplate that influence all markets.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to be plaything of levered speculators, this week we saw the markets turn against those short. An incredibly intense squeeze engulfed the Treasury market which flowed through to crypto. Intense squeeze dynamics also spurred a huge rally in crypto, with bitcoin surging a crazy 34%.

Where did this come from? Forced coverage from yield curve punts blowing up. Yen shorts and levered “carry trades” were at risk. JGB and European yields sank. Corporate spreads were blowing out, inflicting losses on levered corporate bond portfolios. Energy prices tanked. The favored (so called safe) financial stocks were collapsing, while the heavily shorted technology stocks rallied. For the week, the KBW Bank Index sank 14.6%, while the Nasdaq100 (NDX) jumped 5.8%.

It had been a churn following the FTX collapse. BTC had been stuck in the sphere of influence in continuation awaiting a catalyst, and it came. Continues to perform technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. $BTC tested the top of a rising channel after the preceding sharp downturn which was the downside breakout of an earlier bearish flag, after breaking downside a H&S top and then down it went….

Recall Bitcoin exploded higher following it’s correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.

Looking back Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking. The high over $68,000 came after the launch over the Bitcoin ETF. From that high we have 2 main alternatives a V of a 1 of a V. For bears it a completive five with impulse right to the 50wma – an incredible 26% fall in a Friday night session. That’s impulse!

Ethereum

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

 Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Banks

Major US Banks Deliver Mixed Results in Q1, 2023

America’s big money center banks kick of first quarter earnings next week. There will be extra attention on them with the recent banking turmoil. Guidance will be keenly watched for from the money center banks. Concerns are rising over the banking sector’s exposure to commercial real estate. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting Q1 results on Friday. We got a preview from JPMorgan CEO Dimon saying that banking system is strong and sound despite the banking crisis raising the odds of a recession, and that the crisis is not over yet.

Major banks kicking off earnings this quarter, including BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), First Republic Bank (FRC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

• Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Revenue Rose 11% While Investment Banking Revenue Fell 24%
• Goldman Sachs Revenues Miss, Discloses Losses in Marcus and Real Estate
• Bank of America Earnings Benefiting from Higher Interest Rates and Solid Loan Growth
• Wells Fargo Earnings Higher with Net Interest Income Up 45% on Higher Rates
• PNC Bank Earnings Beat Expectations but Lowered 2023 Revenue Guidance
• What Banking Crisis? JPMorgan Shrugs, Record Lending Income and Revenue
• Citigroup Personal Banking Revenue and Indian Exit Boost Earnings

The California and New York Regional Bank Collapse of 2023

So that went quick….. its all about the crisis that just kept holding off until it didn’t

Just when you thought it was safe:

Jay Powell’s FOMC Speech: “We are committed to learning the right lessons from this episode and will work to prevent events like these from happening again.”

“JPMorgan… agreed to acquire First Republic Bank in a government-led deal for the failed lender, putting to rest one of the biggest troubled banks remaining after turmoil engulfed the industry in March… ‘This is getting near the end of it, and hopefully this helps stabilize everything,’ JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said on a call with journalists Monday. Regional banks that reported first-quarter results in recent weeks ‘actually had some pretty good results,’ the CEO said. ‘The American banking system is extraordinarily sound.’” May 1 – Bloomberg (Jenny Surane, Hannah Levitt and Katanga Johnson)

“The trio of bank failures since March has cast a pall over KPMG’s lucrative business as the largest auditor of the US banking sector. Questions over the quality of its work and independence have mounted in recent days, following the release of a Federal Reserve report into the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the forced sale of First Republic. The Big Four accounting firm was auditor to both banks, as well as to Signature… In all three cases, KPMG gave the banks’ financial statements a clean bill of health as recently as the end of February. ‘It’s a three-fer,’ said Francine McKenna, a former KPMG consultant who now lectures at the Wharton School… ‘It’s a dubious achievement . . . and we need tough action to back up tough talk from regulators.’” May 3 – Financial Times (Stephen Foley):

“The American Bankers Association on Thursday urged federal regulators to investigate a spate of significant short sales of publicly traded banking equities that it said were ‘disconnected from the underlying financial realities.’ In a letter to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, the lobby group said it had also observed ‘extensive social media engagement’ about the health of various banks that was out of step with general industry conditions.” May 4 – Reuters (Andrea Shalal)

Round One and Two

“The Federal Reserve on Sunday unveiled a new program to ensure banks can meet the needs of all their depositors amid escalating chances of bank runs following the abrupt collapse of two major banks in the space of 72 hours. The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will offer loans with maturities of up to a year to banks, savings associations, credit unions and other eligible depository institutions. Here are some key elements of the Fed’s program: A key element of the program is acceptable loan collateral – including U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities among others – will be valued at ‘par’… Loans of up to a year in length will be available under the new facility… Interest rates will be the one-year overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 10 bps and will be fixed for the term of the advance on the day the advance is made… The loan commitments made by the Fed’s 12 regional banks will be backstopped with $25 billion from the U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund.”

March 13 – Reuters (Dan Burns)

“Just hours after Wall Street opened for trading on Friday morning, US regulators had seized control of Silicon Valley Bank, which had imploded under the strain of depositors pulling out their money en masse. What at first seemed like the failure of a one-of-its-kind lender with deep ties to the technology industry quickly appeared as though it might spiral out of control. Within 48 hours, regulators were preparing a package of emergency measures to quell panic among depositors and prevent contagion in the rest of the banking system. For some working on the effort, it evoked memories of the response to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and the great financial crisis of 2008. By Sunday evening, the US government announced it would guarantee all deposits held at SVB and crypto lender Signature Bank, which was also shut down by regulators at the weekend. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, launched a lending facility that would be available to lots of other banks in order to ensure depositors’ demands could be met.”

March 13 – Financial Times (Colby Smith, James Politi, Ortenca Aliaj and James Fontanella-Khan)

“The biggest banks in the U.S. swooped in to rescue First Republic Bank with a flood of cash totaling $30 billion, in an effort to stop a spreading panic following a pair of recent bank failures. JPMorgan…, Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo are each making a $5 billion uninsured deposit into First Republic, the banks said… Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs… are kicking in $2.5 billion apiece, while five other banks are contributing $1 billion each. The bank’s executives came together in recent days to formulate the plan, discussing it with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other officials and regulators in Washington, D.C…”

March 16 – Wall Street Journal (David Benoit, Dana Cimilluca, Ben Eisen, Rachel Louise Ensign and AnnaMaria Andriotis):

“Credit Suisse shares rebounded sharply on Thursday after the lender revealed plans to borrow up to SFr50bn ($54bn) from the Swiss central bank and buy back about SFr3bn of its debt in an attempt to boost liquidity and calm investors. The Swiss National Bank had said on Wednesday it was willing to provide a liquidity backstop following a plunge of as much as 30% in the troubled lender’s stock… In a statement on Thursday, Credit Suisse said it had taken the decision ‘to pre-emptively strengthen its liquidity’ by borrowing the funds from the Swiss central bank under a loan facility and short-term liquidity facility.”

March 16 – Financial Times (Joshua Frankli, Owen Walker and Laura Noonan)

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

What Macro and Micro Risks and Opportunities Lie Ahead this week

Global Watch

Next Week’s Risk Dashboard via Scotiabank

• Renewed debt ceiling theatrics
• Missing balance in Canada’s mortgage debate
• CDN fiscal Q2 bank earnings due
• The BoC is in a race against the clock
• FOMC minutes could inform pause versus hike bias
• RBNZ to hike again
• BoK, BI and Turkey to extend pauses
• SARB to hike again
• Global PMIs to inform growth tracking, inflation risk
• US core PCE is still sticky
• UK inflation still breaking records?
• Tokyo CPI to inform BoJ pivot risks
• US consumer spending backed by income gains

Central Bank Watch

In our central bank watch in the week ahead a lot to take in. We get minutes to the May 2nd – 3rd FOMC meeting which could inform pause versus hike bias and five regional central bank decisions offer modest risk to markets. RBNZ is nearly unanimous expected to hike again, Bank of Korea, Bank Indonesia and the Turkish Central Bank are all expected to extend pauses. The SARB is seen hiking again. We all so get a solid round up of Fed speakers.

Eyes and ears will be on central bankers. We have the backdrop of a more hawkish Fed Chair in the face of escalating systemic risk. How will this affect Fed policy given the massive treasury positions out there and the risk of uninsured funds? In this environment we get pivots daily. How much damage is the Federal Reserve willing to do in the guise of controlling inflation?

This Week’s Interest Rate Announcements (Time E.T.)

In the week ahead we get 5 central banks delivering policy decisions.

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

• 22:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement

Wednesday, May 24 2023

• 21:00 Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, May 25 2023

• 03:30 Bank Indonesia Interest Rate Decision
• 07:00 Turkey Interest Rate Decision
• 09:00 South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision

For our complete Central Bank Analysis and Outlook visit our Central bank Watch:

Economic Data Watch

US Data Focus

• Monday: Nothing of note
• Tuesday: Preliminary May IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 50.2) and preliminary May IHS Services PMI (prior 53.6) at 9:45 ET; April New Home Sales (prior 683,000) at 10:00 ET; and $42 bln 2-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
• Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -5.7%) at 7:00 ET; weekly crude oil inventories (prior +5.04 mln) at 10:30 ET; $43 bln 5-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET; and May FOMC Minutes at 14:00 ET
• Thursday: Weekly Initial Claims (prior 242,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.799 mln), Q1 GDP — second estimate (prior 1.1%), and Q1 GDP Deflator — second estimate (prior 4.0%) at 8:30 ET; April Pending Home Sales (prior -5.2%) at 10:00 ET; weekly natural gas inventories (prior +99 bcf) at 10:30 ET; and $35 bln 7-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
• Friday: April Personal Income (prior 0.3%), Personal Spending (prior 0.0%), PCE Prices (prior 0.1%), Core PCE Prices (prior 0.3%), April Durable Orders (prior 3.2%), Durable orders ex-transportation (prior 0.3%), April advance goods trade deficit (prior -$84.60 bln), April advance Retail Inventories (prior 0.7%), and April advance Wholesale Inventories (prior 0.1%) at 8:30 ET; final May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (prior 57.7) at 10:00 ET. Treasury market to close at 14:00 ET

Global Data Focus

• OPEC:
• Canada: Canada observes Victoria Day Monday
• Brazil:
• Mexico: Mexico international reserves. Mexico GDP
• Europe: European Flash PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK. Germany IFO business climate
• Russia: Russian PM Mishustin will lead government delegation to China to attend business forum along with sanctioned tycoons
• Turkey:
• UK: CPI Flash PMIs
• China: PBoC one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate.
• Japan: Machinery orders, Tokyo CPI
• India:
• South Korea:
• Australia: Retail sales
• New Zealand: RBNZ interest rate decision: Expected to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%.

US Stocks Watch Earnings and Event Watch

Earnings Highlights This Week:

• Monday includes Ryanair (RYAAY), Zoom Video Communications (ZM), ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM), HEICO Corporation (HEI), PetMed Express (PETS) and Niu Technologies (NIU)
• Tuesday includes Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Intuit (INTU), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), AutoZone (AZO), Agilent Technologies (A), Kroger (KR), Best Buy (BBY), DICK’S Sporting Goods (DKS) BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ), V.F. Corporation (VFC), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Toll Brothers (TOL), Manchester United (MANU), Urban Outfitters (URBN), and Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
• Wednesday includes NVIDIA (NVDA), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Analog Devices (ADI), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Snowflake (SNOW), Splunk (SPLK), U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL), Xpeng Inc. (XPEV), UiPath (PATH), Futu Holdings (FUTU), Nutanix (NTNX) e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), Petco Health and Wellness Company (WOOF), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Kohl’s Corporation (KSS)
• Thursday includes Costco (COST) The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Medtronic (MDT), NetEase (NTES), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK), Burlington Stores (BURL), Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), Weibo Corporation (WB), The Gap (GPS), and Lion’s Gate Entertainment (LGF.A)
• Friday includes Big Lots (BIG) The Buckle (BKE) and Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH)

Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Events

Notable conferences running during the week include:

Monday

• The American Thoracic Society conference will continue to run until May 24. Gossamer Bio (GOSS), Verona Pharma (VRNA), and Galecto (GLTO) are some of the companies highlighted by analysts as potentially seeing some share price movements following their presentations.
• Dell Technologies (DELL) CEO Michael Dell and other top execs at Dell Technologies World Day event.
• The FTC review on Merck’s (MRK) planned $10.8B acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences (RXDX) will expire. RXDX trades about 4% below the deal price of $200 per share.
• The three-day GamesBeat summit will begin with topics ranging from next-gen gaming to Metaverse, AI and mobile blockchain topics. The list of speakers for the summit includes Warner Bros. Interactive (WBD) President David Haddad, Hasbro (HAS) CEO Chris Cocks, Chipotle (CMG) CMO Chris Brandt, Playtika (PLTK) COO Shlomi Aizenberg, and Amazon Games (AMZN) Marketing Chief Sarah Anderson.
• Ford (F) Capital Markets Day event titled Delivering Ford+. CEO Jim Farley and CFO John Lawler will discuss progress and expectations for the Ford+ plan and how the company’s new, customer-centered, business segments will drive value creation.

Tuesday

• The three-day Microsoft (MSFT) developers conference will begin. The event will cover many of the new Microsoft (MSFT) APIs, products and services on the way, as well as feature sessions on Nvidia’s (NVDA) AI Enterprise, the NVIDIA H100 GPU-powered VM series for generative AI, and the new NVIDIA Omniverse Cloud on Azure.

Wednesday

• Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Investor Day
• Luna Innovations (LUNA) will host the first Investor Day event in the company’s history.
• Nvidia (NVDA) will hold its earnings call. The three stocks with the highest trading correlation with Nvidia are Marvell Technology (MRVL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Synaptics (SYNA).

Thursday

• McDonald’s (MCD) will hold its annual meeting.
• The launch window opens for Virgin Galactic’s (SPCE) first spaceflight in nearly two years. The Unity 25 mission is being considered a final assessment flight before the company begins commercial service as early as late June.
• Zoetis (ZTS) will host an Investor Day event
• Microvast Holdings (MVST) will host an Investor Day event.
• Ford (F) Jim Farley will discuss the opportunities and challenges of the global shift to electrification at a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley Sustainable Finance Summit.
• New Relic (NEWR) will hold an analyst day
• Fortive Corporation (FTV) Investor Day
• AnaptysBio (ANAB) will hold a BTLA Agonist R&D event.
• Abstracts will be released ahead of the full 2023 American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting taking place on June 2-6 in Chicago. Gilead Sciences (GILD), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Moderna (MRNA), PDS Biotechnology (PDSB), Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN), Exelixis (EXEL), and Cue Biopharma (CUE).

Friday

• JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon is due to be deposed for lawsuits filed by a victim in the Jeffrey Epstein case and the government of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
• The walk date arrives for Broadcom’s (AVGO) $61B purchase of VMware (VMW).

Sovereign Rating Updates

• Spain (Fitch)
• Czech Republic (Moody’s)
• Poland (DBRS)

IPO Wrap

US IPO Week Ahead:

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2022.

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