Traders Market Weekly: November 8 – 14 2020

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FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Two Tribes

 Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Amerika 2020 – When Two Tribes Go To War

The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?


It was meant to get better after the U.S. election, one coud say after this week’s chaos the division has got deeper, America is two tribes that are at war with each other. Nothing more evidemt then this week. On election night Trump appears to have one, left wing players are openly crying and imploding, right wingers are gloating. Then out of nowhere massive all Biden votes swing the election to Biden. The tables flip left players are gloating, threatening retribution, right players shouting fraud. Meanwhile MSN sticks to the Trump is dead script, nary a mention of voting indiscretions. US MSN declares Biden the winner, despite GOP court cases, major countries like the UK congratulated Biden with more anti Trump talk. The nastiness in victory is something to behold, the cries of a globalist conspiracy are loud, when will it get better?

The bottom line America had a massive turnout in votes almsot 50/50, the country is split and to think that after 4 years of fighting against Trump, the Russia gate, the impeachment and threats of going after all Trump appointees and aides by extremists like AOC make it laughable to even expect a big love fest. Most likely we will have a Biden poresidency, Democrat House and Republican Senate. From that two years of anger and moves to the next house election and then from there…. you get the picture. 

Be alert, don’t get caught up in emotion either way, avoid the left and right zealots on TV and social media, expect the unexpected and be wary of false narratives from all angles. Dont forget there is still Brexit, a Covid 19 surge, China and so much more, we had a big week for central banks, highlighted by the Fed and RBA, a pull back in auto sales and a strong jobs number.


  • Stockmarkets
  • Energy – Oil and Gas
  • Foreign Exchange
  • Gold and Silver
  • Fixed Interest & Banks
  • Risk Radar
  • Geopolitcs and Economy 
  • Week ahead


Stock Markets

Highlights – USA

  • The week was one of bounce in an illiquid, algo run deeply bearish/bullish by the day.
  • The S&P500 surged 7.3% (up 8.6% y-t-d), the Dow rose 6.9% (down 0.8%). The Utilities gained 3.3% (up 2.0%). The Banks increased 2.1% (down 30.7%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 4.5% (up 6.8%). ‘
  • The Transports rose 4.6% (up 6.5%). The S&P 400 Midcaps surged 6.7% (down 1.7%), and the small cap Russell 2000 jumped 6.9% (down 1.5%).
  • The Nasdaq 100 advanced 9.4% (up 38.5%). The Semiconductors surged 12.6% (up 36.7%). The Biotechs jumped 5.1% (up 8.2%). With bullion surging $73, the HUI gold index jumped 10.0% (up 43.0%). bbbb
  • More than a third of NDX stocks posted double-digit gains for the week. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) jumped 11.5%, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) 10.8%, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) 10.5%, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) 9.2%, and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) 8.7%. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) surged 17.6% and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) jumped 16.2%.

US Indices D 11 6 2020

Highlights – Europe

    • In Europe for the week The Euro Stoxx 50 equities index jumped 8.3% this week. U.K.’s FTSE equities index jumped 6.0% (down 21.6%). France’s CAC40 surged 8.0% (down 17.0%). The German DAX equities index jumped 8.0% (down 5.8%). Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index rose 6.5% (down 28.1%). Italy’s FTSE MIB index surged 9.7% (down 16.3%).

Highlights – Asia

    • In Asia stocks. Nikkei up 4.3% in Japan (Nikkei 29-year high), 6.7% in Hong Kong, South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 6.6% (up 10.0%). China’s Shanghai Exchange rallied 2.7% (up 8.6%).

Highlights – Australia

    • Stocks were up 4.4% in Australia and 4.5% in Canada.

Highlights – Canada

    • Stocks were up 4.5% in Canada.

Highlights – Emerging Markets

  • EM equities spiked higher as a post-US election unwind of shorts and hedges coupled with the sinking dollar incited panic buying throughout the emerging markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:EEM) (with a 120 million shares short position) surged 7.2% this week, trading to the high since April 2018. Brazil’s Bovespa index surged 7.4% (down 12.7%), and Mexico’s Bolsa gained 4.2% (down 11.5%). India’s Sensex equities index gained 5.8% (up 1.5%). Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index jumped 7.2% (up 4.2%). Russia’s MICEX equities index surged 7.6% (down 4.9%). Up 11.0% in Poland, 6.9% in Chile.

IPO mania is back in full force with Snowflake an indication of, which more than doubled on debut.

We continue to rebalance a natural reversion after the bull mania after the Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. IS that enough to rebalnce and go higher? The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998,  soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.

Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

 Top US Stocks W 11 6 2020

S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis via @KnovaWave

The SPX recalculated after reacted off +2/8 Murrey Math Daily after 5 waves, We have the 2 clear alternatives of Double top i.e a completitive C or i ? Again it tested and held under Tenkan Friday. Alternatives completed C Wave or a Wave 1. Support is Kijun and cloud and Chikou rebalance. Important to note the high was a retest of the initial breakdown .

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages.  Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

 SPX D 11 6 2020

Weekly #SPX is flagging after at MM +2/8 recalculated. Major support is top of channel and Tenkan. Tenkan key support, bulls failure below. We look for 3 waves down and MM grid for wave clues. Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

 SPX W 11 6 2020

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets.

Semiconductors SMH

SMH W 11 6 2020

Apple $AAPL

 AAPL D 11 6 2020

Amazon $AMZN

AMZN W 11 6 2020

Energy and Commodities


  • The Bloomberg Commodities Index increased 1.4% (down 10.0% y-t-d).
  • WTI crude rallied $1.35 to $37.14 (down 39%).
  • Gasoline recovered 5.1% (down 36%),
  • Natural Gas sank 13.9% (up 32%).
  • Copper gained 3.5% (up 13%).
  • Wheat increased 0.6% (up 8%). Corn rallied 2.1% (up 5%).
  • Risk markets continue to respond to a Conronvirus outbreak and failed negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.
  • U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.
  • Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the fourth week in a row.

 BDI Freight Index

 BDI W 11 6 2020


US Crude Oil (WTI)

In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.

WTI D 11 6 2020

WTI after it’s huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.  

WTI W 11 6 2020

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.  

NG D 11 6 2020

Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away. .

NG W 11 6 2020

Precious Metals


  • The Bloomberg Commodities Index increased 1.4% (down 10.0% y-t-d).
  • Spot Gold jumped 3.9% to $1,951 (up 28.5%).
  • Silver surged 8.5% to $25.662 (up 43.2%).


Gold (AUG) fell 0.11% to settle at $1,801.9 but gained 0.66% for the week kGold exudes strength after it back tested the previous wave 3 after finally cracked the Tenkan after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +3/8. In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 reached on May 18. We have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs. Support Tenkan & Kijun. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.

Gold W 11 6 2020


Silver  did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. no  Silver reverseds with much more violent impulse than gold . Given that we have to repsect this is a iii  but  here is also a chance this is an A  

Silver W 11 6 2020

Forex Markets


  • For the week,  the U.S. dollar index sank 1.9% to 92.236 (down 4.4% y-t-d). 
  • Majors for the week. the Australian dollar up 3.3%, the Canadian dollar 2.1%, the euro 2.0%, the Swiss franc 2.0%, the British pound 1.6%, 
  • Minors for the week, he Brazilian real increased 6.8%, the Norwegian krone 4.1%, the South African rand 4.1% the Swedish krona 3.0%, the Mexican peso 2.8%, the New Zealand dollar 2.4%, the Singapore dollar 1.3%, the South Korean won 1.3% The Chinese renminbi increased 1.2% versus the dollar this week (up 5.31% y-t-d)..

 Australian Dollar – AUDUSD

Aussie dollar continues higher after it competed 5 waves in emotive  fashion. with vigor spitting the 100% panic muster. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves Resistance cloud is a long way off.  Support Tenkan and Kijun. From here we watch for 2 or X

AUD W 11 6 2020

New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD

The Kiwi mirrored the AUD and has closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave. We are now above the Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 50wma

NZD W 11 6 2020

Canadian Dollar – USDCAD

The Loonie continues to correct in ABC after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower. We closed at the old 100% 61.8% confluence. Use Fib s for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up, 

CAD W 11 6 2020

 Euro – EURUSD

The Euro tested and held both the channel and cloud spits after so many false breaks to close at its best level since the BRexit spike. We are still in 3 waves so we need to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked.  Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance and Kijun above. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility. 

EUR W 11 6 2020

 EuroPound – EURGBP

Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

EURGBP W 11 6 2020

 Japanese Yen – USDJPY

Japanese Yen still stuck in channel trade, a series of failures and sharp bounces after X led 3 wave panic. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

JPY W 11 6 2020

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso has been correcting in ABC since it collapsed and spat 261% right back to the 100% Fib  We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise. 

MXN W 11 6 2020

  Turkish Lire USDTRY

USDTRY after completing the large 5 waves corrected back to the channel acceleration point and finished testing Tenkan. Alternative is we are still in Wave 5 and this is another 1- Kijun support well above cloud  Impulse is needed to pull away from here.  Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors. 

TRY W 11 6 2020


Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud – we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

 BTC W 11 6 2020

Bond Markets (and Fed Watch)

Highlights – Treasuries

  • Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $3.317 billion, while junk bond funds posted outflows of $2.513 billion (from Lipper).
  • Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 0.085%.
  • Two-year government yields were unchanged at 0.155% (down 141bps y-t-d).
  • Five-year T-note yields added a basis point to 0.39% (down 131bps).
  • Ten-year Treasury yields rose three bps to 0.875% (down 104bps).
  • Long bond yields increased two bps to 1.66% (down 73bps). .

 TNX W 11 6 2020

All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported a record $1.4 trillion of corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity,  funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. THe combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.

Highights – Mortgages

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates added a basis point to 2.81% (down 97bps y-o-y).
  • Fifteen-year rates slipped a basis point to an all-time low 2.32% (down 87bps).
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates increased one basis point to 2.88% (down 55bps).
  • Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates down six bps to a record low 3.03% (down 108bps).
  • Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields were unchanged at 1.41% (down 130bps)

Highlights – Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Credit last week gained $14.0bn to a record $7.125 TN. Over the past year, Fed Credit expanded $3.159 TN, or 80%. Fed Credit inflated $4.314 Trillion, or 153%, over the past 416 weeks. 
  • Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week declined $7.8bn to a four-month low $3.395 TN. “Custody holdings” were down $26.7bn, or 0.8%, y-o-y. M2 (narrow) “money” supply expanded $19.8bn last week to a record $18.815 TN, with an unprecedented 34-week gain of $3.308 TN.
  • “Narrow money” surged $3.616 TN, or 23.8%, over the past year. For the week, Currency increased $4.3bn. Total Checkable Deposits dropped $62.4bn, while Savings Deposits surged $82.1bn. Small Time Deposits fell $6.6bn. Retail Money Funds added $2.4bn. Total money market fund assets declined $7.4bn to $4.348 TN. Total money funds surged $835bn y-o-y, or 23.8%. Total Commercial Paper was little changed at $974bn. CP was down $140bn, or 12.5% year-over-year.
  • “Narrow money” surged $3.639 trillion, or 24%, over the past year.
  • The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure.
  • Highlights – European Bonds

  • In Europe Greek 10-year yields increased a basis point to 0.93% (down 50bps y-t-d). Ten-year Portuguese yields dropped seven bps to 0.11% (down 34bps). Italian 10-year yields were unchanged at 0.76% (down 65bps). Spain’s 10-year yields were down six bps to 0.14% (down 33bps). German bund yields dropped five bps to negative 0.63% (down 44bps). French yields fell four bps to negative 0.34% (down 46bps). The French to German 10-year bond spread widened one to 29 bps. U.K. 10-year gilt yields slipped two bps to 0.26% (down 56bps). 
  • For the week, Currency increased $3.2 billion. Total Checkable Deposits jumped $92.8 billion, and Savings Deposits gained $19.4 billion. Small Time Deposits fell $6.4 billion. Retail Money Funds declined $2.8 billion. Total money market fund assets declined $7.6 billion to $4.356 trillion. Total money funds surged $870 y-o-y, or 25%. Total Commercial Paper gained $11.4 billion to $974 billion. CP was down $114 billion, or 10.5% year-over-year.


On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

Fed Financial Stability Report Risks May 2020

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Job Losses

While we wait for October’s job report this week we reflect on September’s employment report which showed 661,000 jobs added in the month below the 800,000 expected. What we garnered from the anlaysts is the effect of return to school as highlighted by well over 1 million women leaving the workforce and many men also to take care of their children not returning to work. What is clear is the disconnect from the realities by pundits, particarlarly partisn biased rhetoric of the true damage to the economy, the social fabric and the selling of that as a new normal. Covid19 brought with it a new reality of brutal times for workers.

Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported under 800,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits for the second time since the crisis.  With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. The September employment report, the last before the election, showed a slower pace of job growth than in August. There were 616,000 nonfarm payrolls, from 1.37 million in August. The unemployment rate expected dropped to 7.9% from 8.4%.As economies slowly reopened, the economy generated than 12 million jobs in May through September. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and the big question is will they come back?

US Politics

Here we are a few days before the Nov. 3 election, the market is likely to thin out and with that is likely more volatility, especially if the outcome looks increasingly uncertain. Stimulus stories will be plied around the polls with the probability of having an unclear outcome, contested outcome or both. So far, more than 56 million Americans have voted early, which makes up 37% of total votes from the 2016 election. More than 38 million of these votes have been mail-in ballots. Election experts are predicting a record of 150 million ballots will be cast, meaning the U.S. could have the highest rate of voter turnout since 1908.

The upcoming presidential election is a huge risk with the intense split along Partisan lines of much of America. RealClearPolitics has President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden in the polls but with a falling margin. A potential for a resurgence in Covid cases will see Trump not benefiting from an economic recovery, and as a result a better chance of Biden being elected. Biden is representative of uncertainty for small business, energy and the working middle class in the main. Potentially higher taxes under a Biden administration are another worry. Biden has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, potentially weighing on companies’ earnings. A separate proposal to tax capital gains and dividends as ordinary income could prompt some investors to sell winners in order to lock in lower tax rates.

Stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list.  Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide. Politics influence all, directly or indirectly. 

The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences   In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.

Global Watch

Hot Spots

  • Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the China and India’s Himalaya border, a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
  • War between Armenia and Azberjazan has reopened tensions in the region.
  • China tightened its grip on Hong kong and threats with Taiwan continued.
  • Russia is showing the affects of low energy prices, filtering into the socio economic dynamic
  • Brexit and the EU is bubbling along with increasing antagonism with UK PM Johnson wanting  new deal based on Northen Island security anf freedom.
  • For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however. Voters will also be going to the polls in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.
  • Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?

    If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

  • Continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq. 


Trade Wars

  • Despite all the US and Chinese rhetoric we are led to believe trade talks between U.S. and China are still expected to recommit to the Phase one deal. China has increased purchases of U.S. oil ahead of their trade deal review, according to Reuters.On a more upbeat note, the UK struck its first post-Brexit trade deal with Japan as it seeks to make a success of leaving the EU.
  • Trump did say Phase 2 will be difficult and he sees the virus more important then trade with China..
  • In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..

Fat Tail Virus Risk

U.S. daily COVID cases have spiked to near 100,000, with Friday setting a new single-day record of 99,321 new cases according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Unlike the first two “waves,” the surge in new infections is not dominated by particular metropolitan areas or a few large states. COVID has methodically dispersed throughout the heartland, with rural America in the crosshairs. This is a particularly troubling development for small town hospitals and healthcare systems facing limited capacity and scarce resources. Ominously, outbreaks have slammed many northern states early in the winter season. Over the coming weeks, the virus can be expected to shadow cooler weather advancing south..

Several countries are tightening restrictions and contemplating lockdowns as infections accelerate, prompting concerns about the impact on world economies attempting to recover. 

Covid US EU 10 18 2020

Last week when adjusting for population, the number of new coronavirus infections in Europe has now overtaken the United States, with Europe reporting 187 new cases per million people, based on a seven-day average, compared with 162 new cases per million people in the U.S. as of Thursday. Europe  is reporting an average of roughly 97,000 new cases per day, up 44% from one week ago.

Will virus cases level off in late spring and vanish so things can get back to some sort of normality by late summer? Or will there be a second wave of cases during the autumn/winter, forcing new lockdowns or leading to fear and voluntary social distancing (a W-recession scenario). For how long are you immune after having had the virus, a long time or a couple of months? Will there be a vaccine and when?

  • AstraZeneca and Johnson and Johnson (J&J) announced they had received permission to resume trials on a COVID-19 vaccine. AstraZeneca was on track to have a vaccine ready before the end of the year, while J&J had said its candidate would be ready by early next year.
  • The US deals with a number of pharmaceutical giants have topped roughly $10.79 billion as part of Operation Warp Speed, a program led by several departments within the federal government to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines and treatments to fight the coronavirus.
  • The operation aims to provide at least 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. The companies are Moderna Johnson & Johnson Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Pfizer and BioNTech Novavax and AstraZeneca
  • Hopes and fears of reopening can outweigh mixed earnings results. No surprise after increased testing, weeks of protesting, people in large airconditioning indoors we have record daily U.S. cases. The U.S. reported 1000 deaths 4 days in a row with coronavirus cases,
  • There does appear to a concerted effort to put the blame on an economy reopening and miraclously the mass ongoing priotests have nothing to do with that. Take that for what it is worth. There is little mention of the younger age group in the new cases and much lower mortality rate. Fear is the feature. Use commonsense in your own protection, spreading and decision making.


BE AWARE: Stay rational and be prepared for many alternatives, either way. With crisis comes opportunity. From a market point of view this is not unprecedented, many other bubbles have popped with similar results. What is unprecedented is the pandemic, the mass media and social media fear mongering, the massive QE and printing and the strange era of entitlement and no responsibilty fed down from politicians to the youth of today for electoral purproses.

Put all that together and we see the result.  Again this isn’t unprecedented just a different catalyst and fuel. Stay tuned. take a breath and think clearly. Oh and now we have the riots to throw on the kindling ….

  • Expect the Fed Stability Report warning on what happens if the pandemic worsens to be the go tto by Fed speakers (We are all watching to see if I spike aftet the Floyd protests and riots with no social distancing).
  • The backdrop is the Covid-19 crisis. Despite that the stockmarket is up over 40% from lows and stubborn bears and bulls alike are frustrated based on cognitive biases.
  • We continually focus on overcoming our biases and as the accompanying chart highlights stocks and the economy are NOT the same thing despite what we are told by our influencers and biased or selective recalls.


“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

Central Bank Watch speeches, reports and rate moves


  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Corporation of London Green Horizon Summit, in London.
  • BOE Chief Economist Haldane speaks on a webinar on “The economic impact of coronavirus and long-term implications for the UK”.
  • ECB’s Rehn speaks with students on the Bank’s Strategy Review.
  • ECB’s Mersch speaks during an online event.
  • Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks at a fintech conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed.


  • Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles speaks with the Senate Banking Committee to discuss oversight of the SEC.
  • Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaks to the Council on Foreign Relations.
  • ECB’s Knot and Boston Fed President Rosengren speak at a UBS conference. 7:00 FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 20:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement 21:00 RBNZ Press Conference


  • 08:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 08:30 ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
  • 11:00 ECB’s Lane Speaks


  • 09:15 ECB’s Mersch Speaks
  • 10:30 ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
  • 11:45 ECB President Christine Lagarde, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are among the speakers at an online ECB Forum entitled “Central Banks in a Shifting World.” Through Nov. 12. . EIA crude oil inventory report.Speaks
  • 13:00 Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks at a Detroit community forum
  • 13:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
  • 13:30 BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks via video conference The BOE’s Andrew Bailey speaks at the FT Global Boardroom conference
  • 14:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks


  • 05:00 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 07:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 08:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 09:00 MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
  • 09:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
  • 11:00 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and  in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

Economic Events in the Week Ahead:


  • UK Brexit trade-deal talks,
  • ADIPEC, the world’s largest gathering of oil and gas industry players, set to convenes for four days virtually: speakers include Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman; Russian Energy Minister Novak; UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei; and OPEC Secretary General Barkindo.
  • The World Trade Organization to appoint a new leader.
  • Political discussions  between Libya’s rival parties.
  • China Trade and Reserve Data  


  • EU targets the imposition of nearly $4 billion in tariffs on US goods in retaliation over illegal aid to Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA).
  • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) hosts “One More Thing” event. Reveals processors designed by Apple, replacing the Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) chips.
  • 05:00 Germany ZEW index: Expectations Survey: 45.0e v 56.1 prior; Current Situation: -65.0e v -59.5 prior
  • 07:00 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
  • 08:55 Redbook (MoM)
  • 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • 10:00 JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)
  • 12:00 WASDE Report
  • 13:01 10-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Nov)


  • 06:00 OPEC Monthly Report
  • 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
  • 08:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 08:30 ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
  • 11:00 ECB’s Lane Speaks
  • 18:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Sep)
  • 18:50 Japan PPI (MoM) (Oct)


  • 10.30 EIA crude oil inventory report.


  • 02:45 French CPI (MoM)
  • 03:00 Spanish CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 05:00 EU Trade Balance (Sep)
  • 08:30 US PPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
  • 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage
  • 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. 

Earnings Week Ahead

Last week about a third of the S&P 500 companies report earnings, including large tech names. Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook, plus big oil Exxon and Chevron. Big banks kicked off third-quarter earnings reports on Oct. 13, helping to set the tone for the broader U.S. stock market, as businesses cope with the eighth month of the pandemic. Banks reaped the rewards of the initial public offerings and record corporate borrowings during the pandemic. Investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Everyone is expecting the worse. We will see critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.

Last week we heard from Estee Lauder, Clorox, Skyworks Solutions, PayPal, Paypal Nutrien, Williams, Steris, Ingersoll Rand, Healthpeak, Alliant, Solaredge, Humana,Ferrari, Eaton, Emerson Electric, Exelon, Thomson Reuters Johnson Controls Wec Energy Sysco Mckesson Wayfair Fox Zebra Catalent Gartner Bausch Health Lgi Homes Vishay AMC: Progressive Prudential Alleghany Mercury Systems Super Micro Computer Nabors, Acacia, Apache, Cimarex, Marathon Oil, Pioneer Natural Resources, Qualcomm, Alibaba Bristol-Myers Squibb Linde Zoetis Cigna Dominion Energy Duke Energy Becton Dickinson Regeneron Pharmaceuticals General Motors Barrick Gold Sempra Energy T-Mobile Square Uber Booking Monster Caesars Electronic Arts Peloton Trade Desk Republic Cloudflare Roku Take-Two Interactive, CVS Health Corp SYSCO Booz Allen Hamilton Henry Schein Regal Beloit Mylan Cardinal Health Jones Lang LaSalle Michael Kors Colfax Lamar Advertising Stewart ON Semiconductor

This week we hear from:

  • Monday starts us off with MCD McDonald’s BIP Brookfield BKI Black Knight HWM CGC Canopy Gwth PLUG Plug Power SPG Simon Property RNG Ringcentral XP KKR WPM Wheaton Precious Metals ZI Zoominfo OSH Oak Street Health IFF Intl Flavors & Fragrances OXY Occidental Petroleum BYND Beyond Meat NBIX Neurocrine NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line NKLA Nikola NVAX Novavax
  • Tuesday with earnings from DR Horton, Ecolab, TC Energy, Rockwell Automation, , Biontech Advance Auto Parts Bentley Systems TC Pipelines Jumia Rocket Companies,  Rocket Companies, Paccar, Datadog, Tencent Music, 10X Genomics, Fair Isaac, LYFT, Adaptive Biotechnologies, Ashland, Brooks Automation earnings
  • Wednesday Earnings Include: Air Products, Green Thumb, Lemonade earnings
  • Thursday Earnings Include:GoodRx, Disney, Cisco, Applied Materials earnings
  • Friday Earnings Include: Draftkings earnings

IPO Week Ahead

The US IPO market has three biotechs and one SPAC scheduled to raise $340 million in the week ahead.

  • Oncology biotech IN8bio (INAB) plans to raise $75 million at a $325 million market cap. IN8bio is focused on developing cancer therapies by employing allogeneic, autologous and genetically modified gamma-delta T cells. The company’s lead candidates, INB-200 and INB-100, are targeting glioblastoma and a subset of patients with leukemia. Both are in Phase 1 trials, with topline data expected in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
  • Immuno-oncology biotech Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) plans to raise $50 million at a $337 million market cap. The company’s lead candidate, CTX-471, is a monoclonal antibody agonist of CD137, a key co-stimulatory receptor on immune cells. CTX-471 is currently in a Phase 1 trial in a subset of oncology patients previously treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Compass plans to initiate a Phase 2/3 trial by early 2022.
  • Clinical stage biotech Inhibikase Therapeutics (IKT), which is developing kinase inhibitors for Parkinson’s (PD) and related disorders, plans to raise $15 million at a $142 million market cap. Its lead candidate, IkT-148009, is being developed for PD and related disorders that arise inside and outside the brain. Inhibikase has filed two INDs for IkT-148009 and expects to begin the first dosing of patients shortly after the IPO.
  • Sustainable food-focused SPAC Natural Order Acquisition (NOACU) plans to raise $200 million. The company is led by Chairman Sebastiano Castiglioni, who is a Partner at Blue Horizon Group, and CEO Paresh Patel, who manages his private investment office Sandstone Investments.

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Last Week’s Big Stories

The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap


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