Traders Market Weekly: All Risk, No Fear, Mania and  inflation

November 7 – 13 2021

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

 

All Risk No Fear

 Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

All Risk, No Fear, Mania and  inflation

The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?

Editorial

Like a scratched record another week of no fear for US stock markets, risk on is oblivious to cracks appearing in this mania. S&P and NASDAQ closed at record highs for the seventh straight day, NASDAQ up for the 10th consecutive trading day The small cap Russell 2000 jumped 6.1% this week, with the Semiconductors (SOX) up 8.8%. The major indices were higher on the  stronger jobs report.  and the Central bank actions this week:

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at an all time low on Tuesday to just 0.1% as widely expected. The RBA discontinued the target of 10bp for April 2024 Australian Government bond after 10-year Aussie bonds broke over 2% for first time since March 2019.
  • The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at their November meeting, Cut in pace of Treasuries $10B/month as expected, Cut in pace of MBS $5B/month as expected. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory
  • The Bank of England MPC at it’s November meeting voted 7-2 (Ramsden and Saunders dissented)to maintain Bank Rate at 0.1%. The Committee voted 6-3(Ramsden, Saunders, Mann dissented)to maintain corporate bond purchases at £20 billion and government bond purchases at £875

Why the evident disregard of manic markets and precarious financial imbalances? For us it is Central Bankers scared senseless of popping bubbles and the waterfall from there. Evidence lies in bonds,  we saw acute instability afflict developed bond markets, including the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and even U.S. Treasuries last week. More denial with US CPI due out and seen at 5.8 percent, its highest level since December 1990 and well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. The preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment for November will likely show a slight improvement in morale, even as households remain concerned about mounting inflationary pressure.

This week’s Central Bankers followed last week’s Brazilian central bank raised rates again, Bank of Canada brought QE buying down to zero and inflation reports globally surged. The yield on the ten-year Australian government bond pushed through 2 per cent for the first time since March 2019.

Some sage advice from your parents, “Know what’s under your hood, not what they tell you, learn to drive a manual first before driving an automatic”

 “We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.” – MoneyNeverSleeps

There is the prospect of an overheating U.S. economy, but remember we are coming off a low base and the lockdown has decimated many sectors of the economy and people’s lives. The relevaton from the speed of technology adapting and disrupting to a new world with the lockdown is transformative. The shift has enabled and transformed the traditional economy that we measure future outcomes off.

The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off tis continuos dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.

Contents

  • Part A: Stockmarkets
  • Part B: Bonds
  • Fed and Banks
  • Part C: Commodities
  • Energy – Oil and Gas
  • Gold and Silver
  • Part D: Foreign Exchange
  • Geopolitics and Economics
  • Economy Week ahead

PART A – Stock Markets

Highlights – USA

  • S&P500 gained 2.0% (up 25.1% y-t-d)
  • Dow rose 1.4% (up 18.7%).
  • Nasdaq100 advanced 3.2% (up 26.9%).
  • S&P 400 Midcaps jumped 4.0% (up 25.7%)
  • Small cap Russell 2000 surged 6.1% (up 23.4%).
  • Transports surged 5.9% (up 34.7%).
  • Utilities added 0.5% (up 7.7%).
  • The Banks increased 0.4% (up 42.2%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 2.0% (up 32.7%).
  • The Semiconductors rose 8.8% (up 34.4%).
  • The Biotechs declined 1.1% (down 2.1%).
  • With bullion jumping $35, the HUI gold index rallied 4.0% (down 13.6%).

US Indices 11 5 2021

 

Highlights – Europe Stocks

  • U.K.’s FTSE equities index added 0.9% (up 13.1% y-t-d).
  • France’s CAC40 surged 3.1% (up 26.8%).
  • The German DAX equities index rose 2.3% (up 17.0%).
  • Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index increased 0.8% (up 13.1%).
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB index jumped 3.4% (up 25.0%).

Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.

 Highlights – Asia Stocks

  • Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index jumped 2.5% (up 7.9% y-t-d).
  • South Korea’s Kospi index was unchanged (up 3.3%). ‘
  • Hong Kong Hang Seng Index lost 2% this week,
  • India’s Sensex equities index increased 1.3% (up 25.8%).
  • China’s Shanghai Exchange dropped 1.6% (up 0.5%).

 Highlights – Australian Stocks

  • Australia’s S&P/ASX200 had it’s best week since May up 0.4% with all sectors posting gains for the week aside from energy.
  • Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell 1.76% with the weekly decline down 31 points the biggest in nine years.
  • Results from NAB, Orica and Xero, as well as AGMs from Fortescue, Coles and BHP.

 

 Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks 

  • EM equities righted.
  • Brazil’s Bovespa index gained 1.3% (down 11.9%),
  • Mexico’s Bolsa rose 1.3% (up 18.0%)
  • Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index surged 4.0% (up 7.2%).
  • Russia’s MICEX equities index added 0.6% (up 26.9%).

IPO and SPAC mania having break but remains in full force.

Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

Top 5 stocks W 11 5 2021 

 S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis via @KnovaWave

SPX continued from the power impulse 3 to the bottom of the daily cloud after it broke the Tenkan and back to rejected channel to new ATH. Bulls this is a 3 of degree off a C, Bears this a B flat We watch if this low was a (a) or C Will determine if sharp ABC completed to all time highs around +2/8. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keeps it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun and watch for ABC. No fear is the driving element

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the Tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in

SPX D 11 5 2021 

Reenergized after #SPX tripped in 3 to test recent break up at Tenkan from there we have had a powerful rally to ATH. Each new high has evolved after testing Tenkan key support. We watch for a spit of a spit Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.

Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat  “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

SPX W 11 5 2021

 

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets.

 NASDAQ 100

Nasdaq tested and held the weekly Tenkan to close testing swing channel but short of ATH which both DJIA and SPX saw Support Tenkan to Kijun. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.

 Nas W 11 5 2021

Russell 2000

 The small cap Russell RUT has been developing a large flag which it spat though last week, only to close above the Tenkan. We need Kijun to close thru to get power to retest highs. Support the cloud should it fail.

RUT W 11 5 2021 

Semiconductors SMH

Semiconductors SMH clean with Murray Math levels & Tenkan keys. Previous high above +4/8 & Chikou rebalance patterning. Powered by Kijun spit to reaction from above reverted with the retest at triple top patterning. Earnings from above $TSM $NVDA $ASML $AMD $QCOM $AVGO $TXN $INTC $AMAT $LRCX

SMH W 11 5 2021

 

NVidia $NVDA

Following the announcement of NVDA 4/1 split some levels off the energy break. NVidia hasn’t looked back since the $NVDA 4/1 split, We saw a power move off the $200 retest (old $800)! It is a clear leader of #SOX #SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes.

 NVDA W 11 5 2021

Apple $AAPL

Apple’s Friday dump appears to be a healthy rinse on the weekly. Support from previous highs, resistance is ATH. Potential impulse from upcoming #AppleEvent Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.

 AMZN W 11 5 2021 Perspective

Amazon $AMZN

Amazon high locked at Kijun seems …MM +3/8 and from there has built a large weekly flag after failing near the previous high. Watch Tenkan through Kijun for a bigger move down. Support is weekly cloud and resistance previous flag and Tenkan.

AMZN W 10 29 2021 

ARKK ETF

The ARKK ETF trading clinically, tested triangle breakdown. Tenkan after bouncing off 50 WMA. Support cloud, needs to clear Tenkan to test Kijun for bulls. We saw ATH in DOW & SPX a – needs to flow through to ARKK to break up soon rather than later.

ARKK W 10 29 2021 

US Stocks Watch

 

Earnings Week Ahead

This three-month period is the second to be compared to year earlier profits that were affected by the pandemic. According to Refinitiv, earnings for the second quarter are looking to be up 78.1%. With the US stock markets at record highs the downside to increasing profit expectations is the potential for some disappointments and that could cause adverse or stalled markets potentially.

Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Last week we heard from:

This week we hear from:

Monday starts us off with

    • Earnings:

Softbank, Virgin Galactic, Zynga, PayPal, Trip Advisor, AMC Entertainment, Cabot, Lemonade, Marriott Vacations, US Foods, Roblox, Tencent Music

  • Analyst meeting:

Tuesday with Earnings from

    • Earnings:

DR Horton, Coinbase, Palantir, Aurora Cannabis, Bayer, Krispy Kreme, DoorDash, Cardinal Health, BioNTech, Poshmark, Unity Software

  • Analyst meeting:

Wednesday Earnings Include

    • Earnings:

Walt Disney, Beyond Meat, Adidas, Wendy’s, Bumble, Energizer, Beazer Homes, Allianz, Tencent Holdings, Affirm Holdings, Frontier Group, Kinross Gold

  • Analyst meeting:

Thursday Earnings Include

    • Earnings:

Brookfield Asset Management, Siemens, Tapestry, Burberry, Lordstown Motors, Edgewell Personal Care

  • Analyst meeting:

Friday Earnings include

    • Earnings:

AstraZeneca

  • Analyst meeting:

These are the highlighted earnings for the US this week. Please check daily schedules for more reports.

“U.S. companies are rushing to cash in on soaring stock prices. It isn’t just the white-hot market for initial public offerings. Companies are returning to the public markets to issue shares and raise cash from investors at the same time that existing shareholders are tapping the public market to unload their stockholdings at a record clip. Companies including Zoom Video Communications Inc. and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. have sold billions of dollars of shares this year… There have been 556 follow-on offerings, or stock sales by companies or existing shareholders, among U.S. companies this year, the most since 1996, according to Dealogic… They have raised a total of $133 billion. Behind the boom in share issuance? An ascendant stock market.”  August 25 – Wall Street Journal (Gunjan Banerji):

IPO Wrap

Semiconductors and energy storage lead a spooky 14 IPO week

The IPO market remained active this past week as 13 IPOs raised $6.3 billion. SPAC activity kept steady with 13 blank check IPOs raising $2.1 billion. New filers continued to pour into the IPO pipeline, with eight IPOs and seven SPACs submitting initial filings.

Semiconductor foundry GlobalFoundries (GFS) priced at the high end to raise $2.6 billion at a $26 billion market cap. Backed by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, US-based GlobalFoundries is one of the world’s leading specialty semiconductor foundries. Unprofitable with lumpy growth, the company states that it is the only scaled pure-play foundry with a global footprint that is not based in China or Taiwan. GlobalFoundries finished up 4%.

Energy storage provider Fluence Energy (FLNC) priced well above the range to raise $868 million at a $4.7 billion market cap. Formed as a JV between industrial conglomerate Siemens and power distributor AES, this company provides energy storage products to utilities, power producers, and commercial and industrial customers. Fast growing but unprofitable, the company generated about 90% of revenue in the FY20 from five customers. Fluence Energy finished up 27%.

Enterprise cloud data management platform Informatica (INFA) priced at the low end to raise $841 million at a $8.3 billion market cap. Taken private by Permira and CPP Investments for $5.3 billion in 2015, Informatica offers a leading enterprise data management platform for large enterprise. Although it will be highly leveraged post-IPO, Informatica is a recognized leader in the global data management market and saw strong subscription ARR growth in the 1H21. Informatica finished up 2%.

Hiring solutions provider HireRight Holdings (HRT) priced below the range to raise $422 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Backed by General Atlantic and Stone Point, this company is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate customers. Although revenue fell due to COVID, HireRight operates in a multibillion market benefiting from secular trends. HireRight finished down 9%.

Online education marketplace Udemy (UDMY) priced at the high end to raise $421 million at a $4.4 billion market cap. Backed by Insight Partners, Udemy operates an online learning marketplace with over 183,000 courses serving 44 million free and paid learners and 8,700 enterprise customers. Fast growing but unprofitable, the company operates it in crowded online learning market. Udemy finished down 5%.

Designer fashion rental platform Rent the Runway (RENT) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $357 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This apparel rental company originally focused on a-la-carte rentals of dresses for events, but has gradually transitioned to mostly generating revenue from monthly subscription boxes. While the company has seen active subscribers and revenue rebound in the last two quarters, it is unprofitable and leveraged post-IPO. Rent the Runway finished down 18%.

Fire put brand Solo Brands (DTC) priced at the high end to raise $219 million at a $1.6 billion market cap. Solo Brands sells fire pits, camp stoves, and other outdoor gear through its DTC platform. Fast growing and profitable, this outdoor e-commerce has an installed base of more than 2.3 million customers. Solo Brands finished up 8%.

Rare disease biotech Entrada Therapeutics (TRDA) upsized and priced at the midpoint to raise $182 million at a $637 million market cap. The company is initially focused on developing Endosomal Escape Vehicle therapeutics for rare neuromuscular diseases. Its most advanced candidate, ENTR-601-44, is being developed for patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy that are exon 44 skipping amenable. Entrada plans to submit an IND application for ENTR-601-44 in 2022. Entrada Therapeutics finished up 20%.

Root canal therapy system maker Sonendo (SONX) priced well below the range to raise $94 million at a $340 million market cap. Sonendo has developed what it states is the first and only FDA-cleared system for root canal therapy (RCT), called the GentleWave System. Sonendo began scaling commercialization of its current technology in 2017, and as of June 30, 2021, it had an installed base of over 700 GentleWave Systems and has treated more than 600,000 patients. Sonendo finished down 23%.

Body contouring provider AirSculpt Technologies (AIRS) priced at the low end to raise $77 million at a $612 million market cap. This company provides minimally-invasive body contouring procedures through 16 centers across 13 states in the US. AirSculpt Technologies is profitable with solid growth, and has seen an increase in same-center case volume as a result of lessening effects of COVID-19. AirSculpt Technologies finished up 45%.

Solid tumor biotech Aura Biosciences (AURA) upsized and priced at the low end to raise $76 million at a $428 million market cap. AU-011, its first Virus-Like Drug Conjugate candidate, is being developed for the first line treatment of primary choroidal melanoma, a rare disease with no drugs approved. Aura plans to present six to twelve-month safety and efficacy data from its Phase 2 dose escalation trial in 2022, and, if favorable, initiate a pivotal trial in the 2H22. Aura Biosciences finished up 6%.

Technology firm Arteris (AIP) priced at the low end to raise $70 million at a $518 million market cap. This technology company develops and licenses interconnect intellectual property that manages the on-chip communications in System-on-Chip semiconductor devices. Arteris is unprofitable but saw growth accelerate in the 1H21. Arteris finished up 60%.

Documentation software provider Augmedix (AUGX) priced its uplisting at $4 to raise $40 million at a $167 million market cap. Delivering over 35,000 notes to our customers each week, Augmedix provides remote documentation software to the healthcare industry. The company is growing but unprofitable with negative cash flow. Augmedix finished down 6%.

Micro-cap managed health platform Marpai (MRAI) priced below the range to raise $25 million at a $76 million market cap. Marpai provides and manages a health plan platform for self-insured employers that pay for their employees’ healthcare benefits. Growing but highly unprofitable, this health plan platform uses AI to predict costly events to optimize employee care and employer savings. Marpai finished up 40%.

13 blank check companies raised $2.1 billion this past week led by industrial tech-focused Perception Capital II (PCCTU), which raised $200 million.

 

US IPO Week Ahead:

Steady IPO deal flow set to continue with 11 IPOs slated for next week

Drug discovery company Evotec (EVO) plans to raise $576 million at a $9.2 billion market cap. The company aims to accelerate and improve the efficiency of the drug discovery process for biotechs, utilizing fee-for-service, milestone and royalty, and equity interest agreements. Growing and profitable, Evotec’s free cash flow swung negative in the FY20.

Home furnishing retailer Arhaus (ARHS) plans to raise $355 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. Originating as a single show room and Cleveland, Ohio, the company now offers its premium home furnishing products online and in over 75 showrooms across 27 states. Arhaus experienced high double-digit revenue growth in the 1H21 as homeowners invest in their homes in the wake up of the pandemic.

Russian real estate platform Cian (CIAN) plans to raise $269 million at a $1 billion valuation. The company claims to be one of the ten most popular real estate classifieds markets, addressing the underpenetrated Russian market. Fast growing in the 1H21, Cian believes it is leading the digitization of the $238 billion Russian real estate market.

Eco-friendly shoe maker Allbirds (BIRD) plans to raise $250 million at a $2 billion valuation. The company rose to fame when its flagship shoe, the Wool Runner, which uses New Zealand-sourced Merino wool, was named “The World’s Most Comfortable Shoe” by TIME Magazine in 2016. Though not yet profitable, the company expects the expansion of its retail footprint to drive brand awareness and eventual profitability.

Russian car-sharing platform Delimobil (DMOB) plans to raise $220 million at an $836 million market cap. The company offers convenient and affordable transportation alternatives in Russia, with a long-term rental fleet of almost 600 vehicles and 461k monthly active users. The company more than doubled revenue in the 1H21, which is partly due to its acquisitive activity.

Permian Basin-focused mineral and royalty company Desert Peak Minerals (DPM) plans to raise $215 million at a $215 million market cap. The company owns 104,000 acres of net royalty acres, 99% of which are located in West Texas. Completing 177 acquisitions since 2016, the company had shrinking revenue and turned unprofitable in the FY20.

Commercial mortgage REIT Claros Mortgage Trust (CMTG) plans to raise $134 million at a $2.7 billion valuation. The company is primarily focused on transitional commercial real estate assets, which require repositioning, renovation, rehabilitation, leasing, development, or other value-added elements. Claros Mortgage Trust has raised $2.6 billion and originated, co-originated, or acquired 86 investments since its 2015 inception.

Personal finance company NerdWallet (NRDS) plans to raise $131 million at a $1.3 billion valuation. The company operates a free personal finance platform that provides educational tools as well as various financial products. While the company is still unprofitable, its platform had attracted 20 million monthly unique users as of 9/30/21.

Health-conscious food brand The Real Good Food Company (RGF) plans to raise $80 million at a $375 million market cap. The company makes low-carb, high-protein, gluten and grain-free food meals and products using a range of ingredients including plant-based proteins and fibers. While the company nearly doubled revenue in the 1H21, it grew even more unprofitable in the last twelve months.

Prostate cancer diagnostic company MDxHealth (MDXH) plans to raise $50 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company uses clinical modeling and genomic data to give patients a more accurate and actionable result than traditional risk factors such as prostate specific antigen (PSA). MDxHealth is growing but highly unprofitable.

Molecular cancer diagnostics company Mainz Biomed (MYNZ) plans to raise $10 million at a $59 million valuation. The company will acquire and operate as PharmGenomics and aims to commercialize its product portfolio, which includes a molecular prostate and pancreatic cancer test.

 IPO Calendar W 10 29 2021

 

Part B : Bond Markets

Highlights – Treasuries

Why the angst in the bond market?

The After the FOMC presented new economic projections including a forecast of 6.5% for gross domestic product this year with PCE inflation going to 2.4% this year, but falling to 2% next year. Powell reiterated that the Fed sees only a temporary pickup in inflation this year because of the base effects against last year’s numbers when prices fell. The Fed will target an average range of inflation around 2%, meaning it could exceed that threshold for some time which is a change to the Fed’s ground rules. The majority of Fed officials did not see any interest rate hikes through 2023.

What concerns bond holders and impacts stocks over the past weeks is the Fed appears to be too Blaise about inflation. This view got added weight when crude oil hit the highest prices since 2019 after OPEC decided to stay pat on production for April. But since then Crude has fallen over 12% in just a week from those highs. Hence why Powell has said “We’re going to wait to see signs of actual inflation or the appearance of other risks that could threaten the achievement of our goals. And we’ve seen that the economy can sustain exceptionally low levels of unemployment without inflation.”

There is a view that Powell also refuses to be dictated to and set the bond bullies up for failure. The V reversal this month suggests that. Air needs to come out of the market, particularly Tech, this is best illustrated by the ARK Funds and Semi-Conductor SMH ET’s (see below). From here we have another massive $1.9 Trillion stimulus. Is that enough to keep asset prices elevated, hard to fight the Fed and that kind of cash floating around. Watch the argument from analysts that higher yields mean the economy is growing, stocks are value versus hyperinflation is on its way.

Raise your eyes and look at the stopped car in front of you you may want to hit the brakes.The pandemic is not close to our greatest worry, nor is energy it seems. The  runaway credit bubble in the era of delusion and entitlement has multiple unintended consequences or are they intended? The stockmarket has lost rationality  the danger is should the bubble pop the consequences of a historic debt crisis in a deeply divided nation and unprepared social and geopolitical backdrops could be earth shattering as the Fed disregards asset inflation and bubble dynamics.

Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $429 million, while junk bond funds posted negative flows of $1.268 billion (from Lipper).

  • Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 0.0375%. Two-year government yields dropped 10 bps to 0.40% (up 28bps y-t-d). Five-year T-note yields sank 13 bps to 1.06% (up 70bps). Ten-year Treasury yields fell 10 bps to 1.45% (up 54bps). Long bond yields declined five bps to 1.89% (up 24bps). Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields dropped 11 bps to 1.90% (up 55bps).

TNX W 11 5 2021 

 

All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported a record $1.4 trillion of corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity,  funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. THe combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.

Highlights – Mortgage Market

Unprecedented cash payments by the U.S. government to households, changing consumer preferences and lowest mortgage rates in history have fueled a pandemic boom in housing, the fastest pace of increase on record in data from 1988 and prices surpassing the peak from the last property boom in 2005. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 14.6% in the 12 months through April, according to the latest available numbers, marking the fastest pace of increase on record in data from 1988.

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell five bps to 3.09% (up 31bps y-o-y). Fifteen-year rates slipped two bps to 2.35% (up 3bps). Five-year hybrid ARM rates declined two bps to 2.54% (down 35bps). Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up four bps to 3.17% (up 19bps).

Highlights – Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Credit last week declined $7.6bn to $8.531 TN. Over the past 112 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $4.804 TN, or 129%. Fed Credit inflated $5.720 Trillion, or 203%, over the past 469 weeks. Elsewhere, Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week fell $5.7bn to $3.481 TN. “Custody holdings” were up $66bn, or 1.9%, y-o-y. Total money market fund assets slipped $4.6bn to $4.555 TN. Total money funds increased $219bn y-o-y, or 5.1%. Total Commercial Paper dropped $26.3bn to $1.153 TN. CP was up $202bn, or 21.3%, year-over-year.

We do know we have massive speculation pockets, viz a viz the Meme or GameStop, Weed stocks and cryptocurrency spectacles in just the matter of weeks. The Fed is today throwing additional fuel on historic speculative manias.

The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure.

Highlights – European Bonds

  • Greek 10-year yields dropped 24 bps to 1.07% (up 45bps y-t-d).
  • Ten-year Portuguese yields fell 21 bps to 0.31% (up 28bps).
  • Italian 10-year yields sank 29 bps to 0.88% (up 33bps).
  • Spain’s 10-year yields fell 21 bps to 0.40% (up 35bps).
  • German bund yields declined 17 bps to negative 0.28% (up 29bps).
  • French yields sank 21 bps to 0.06% (up 40bps).
  • The French to German 10-year bond spread widened four to 34 bps.
  • U.K. 10-year gilt yields fell 19 bps to 0.85% (up 65bps). .

Highlights – Asian Bonds

  •  Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields fell four bps to 0.06% (up 4bps y-t-d).

Part C: Commodities

Highights

  • The Bloomberg Commodities Index slipped 0.6% (up 31.6% y-t-d).
  • WTI crude retreated $2.30 to $81.27 (up 68%).
  • Gasoline fell 2.1% (up 65%), 
  • Natural Gas advanced 1.7% (up 117%).
  • Copper declined 0.6% (up 23%).
  • Wheat dipped 0.8% (up 20%),
  • Corn fell 2.7% (up 14%).
  • Bitcoin dropped $1,219, or 2.0%, this week to $61,192 (up 111%).

Risk markets continue to respond to a Conronvirus outbreak and failed negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.

U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.

Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the ninth week in a row.

BDI Freight Index

  • The Baltic Exchange Dry Index fell 2% to 2,715 on Friday, its lowest since June 10th and extending losses for the twelfth straight session, amid sluggish demand and Chinese intervention to cool commodities prices. The BDI suffered a weekly loss of 22.8%, the worst since July 2020.
  • The panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, slumped 3% to 3,071, the lowest since June 9th
  • The supramax index plunged 5.7% to 2,416, touching its lowest since May 21. C0.
  • Among smaller vessels,the capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, rose 1.8% to 3,280, snapping an 11-session losing streak.

 BDI W 11 5 2021

Copper

Copper rebounded sharply off the 50wma pulled up by the flattening Tenkan and Kijun to close right at the channel break – a key juncture. #HG shrugged off demand concerns from resurgence in Covid-19 supply disruptions. The power spits of +8/8 and +2/8 were rebalanced by the Tenkan breaking the Kijun with 50wma and cloud below. Copper had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities.

 Copper W 11 5 2021

Copper W 11 5 2021 perspective
 

Corn

Corn W 10 29 2021 

 Lumber

 Lumber W 11 5 2021

Soybeans

Soybeans keep hitting weekly lows well into weekly cloud and well under 50wma. – Ahead of USDA’s October #WASDE report analysts expect higher 2021 production from 4.374 billion bushels in September up to 4.415 billion bushels. – Watch for impulse

 Soy W 11 5 2021

US Crude Oil (WTI)

4 Hour:: WTI oil stayed above the 240 cloud after testing the old channel break to new highs. This is a market that is reflective of fear and greed, note the reaction when Kijun and Tenkan cross or touch and support of the 50ma around Murrey Math confluence.

 WTI 240 11 5 2021

Daily: Potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Continued from daily cloud twist retest to close back at Chikou & ATH. Support Tenkan, 50dma and Kijun, fractals continue with #oil Important to grasp the move continued from last week’s WTI completing its correction of the May breakup in 3 waves (or X) Rebounded from daily cloud twist to close back at Chikou. Support Tenkan, 50dma and Kijun, fractals continue with oil.

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence. ;

 WTI D 11 5 2021

Weekly:WTI crude #Oil futures continued with it’s measured move & settled at fresh 7-year high. Long term 61.8% target fueled by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou. Weekly Tenkan Kijun gave support & power to take out new high It must retain this energy to take out new high

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 11 5 2021
 WTI D 11 5 2021 PerspectiveWTI W 11 5 2021 Fibs

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

4 Hour::  A look at that daily ABC on the 240 shows the waves clearly in the Murrey Math grid with the cloud the guide for higher (the IV) or Lower the A – meaning this is a B. Note impulses off Kijun/Tenkan crosses Recall natural gas spitting to +8/8 than +1/8 240 before retreating in 3 waves to spit violently the 50 4hr ma stayed above the cloud until the completive 5 and back in the channel in a continuation pattern since regaining the 240 cloud to rebalance the Chikou to close the week. Continue to watch Kijun reactions and Murrey Math confluence.

NG 240 11 5 2021 

Daily: US Natural Gas has completed 3 waves correcting the daily 8/8 spit after a classic euphoria wave 5 to comeback to test Kijun and bounce between it and Tenkan with power before spitting the 50dma in a corrective ABC pennant of a (IV). Alts are IV or A at this juncture Notice the fractals of the move after completing the C of 4 bullish scenario has played out the consolidation phase since it completed its IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Should the highs be a (iii) looking at possibilities we have the 161.8% at 7.026 if we get ‘silly’ 50dma support.

Like the larger wave on the way up it accelerated through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and new highs. We successfully tested that break in a pennant ABC. Previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and 8/8 and new highs underscore the structure that fed the move and is key longer term.

NG D 11 5 2021 

Weekly:  Going out further we see a spit of the weekly Tenkan for Natural gas continued off it’s major target, the double top potential from 2014 which equated nicely to over 8/8 Weekly and showed true impulse off that to rebalance Chikou. It’s now a question of degree, 3 or 5? Impulse just shy of the 8/8 and Tenkan confluence. Recall the impulse wave powered from the spit of 50wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan.  This was energized with a series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is Fib/Murrey confluence, support Tenkan, Kijun – as always count your ABC’s

 NG W 11 5 2021

 

Key Energy Reports

 

Precious Metals

Highlights

  • Spot Gold jumped $35 to $1,818 (down 4.2%).
  • Silver rallied 1.1% to $24.16 (down 8.5%).

Gold

Gold broke back over base of weekly cloud  closing above the tenkan, Kihun and 50wma after wave (ii) alt gains favor, can it sustain it?. Still listless after manic rise to +5/8 weekly rebalance of Chikou in 5 waves. To be bullish we would need to get and stay above the cloud. Murrey Math resistance, watch Fibs & Chikou.

 Gold W 11 5 2021

 Gold W 11 5 2021 Perspective

Silver

Silver is back at the cloud spitting 50wma providing support after reversed with a double top. The weekly Tenkan crossing the Kijun signaled downside and is now resistance. Major support is the 50wma 

 Silver W 11 5 2021

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Highlights

  • For the week,the U.S. Dollar Index added 0.2% to 94.32 (up 4.9% y-t-d).
  • Majors for the week For the week on the upside, the Japanese yen 0.5%, the Swiss franc 0.4%, and the euro 0.1%. For the week on the downside, the Australian dollar declined 1.6%, the British pound 1.3%, the Canadian dollar 0.6%
  • Minors for the week For the week on the upside the Brazilian real increased 1.7%, the South African rand 1.3%, the Mexican peso 1.1%, the Swedish krona 0.3% and the Chinese renminbi increased 0.11% versus the dollar (up 2.01% y-t-d).For the week on the downside, the South Korean won 1.4%, the Norwegian krone 1.4%, the New Zealand dollar 0.8%

Australian Dollar – AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar has corrected in 3 waves since completing a 5 at the pysch 80 level and it back break retest of wave 1 and the weekly cloud as one would expect after it completed 5 waves in emotive fashion. The Australian dollar fell to its lowest value since December under 73 US cents. Resistance the Tenkan and Kijun like many commodities. The AUDUSD old three year high of 0.7820 from January 6 is a key option energy point playing out.

AUD W 10 29 2021

New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD

The Kiwi mirrored the AUD in its wave (iii) spit and has corrected at the cloud much of the FOMO muster wave and retested the 50% Fib & 4/8 confluence. Kijun and Tenkan Resistance, which is pivotal. Support previous break spits.

NZD W 10 29 2021

Canadian Dollar – USDCAD

The Loonie is holding the tenkan after a 3 year high in June and corrected that in 3 waves led by the AUD and NZD. #oil price impacting direction. Watch flat Kijun and Tenkan at -1/8. Use Fibs for support and resistance.

 CAD W 10 29 2021

Euro – EURUSD

Euro continues to correct in what seems like eternal flags in the channel. We watch if Kijun (pink) testing Tenkan (orange) creates any impulse as #EURUSD consolidates in the cloud. Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility.

 EUR W 10 29 2021

British Pound – USDGBP

British pound classic retest of daily cloud break with magnet pull of cloud twist after ABC correction – will need Tenkan to break through Kijun for more strength. The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.

GBP D 10 29 2021

 

EuroPound – EURGBP

Back testing tenkan in a C or 3 after inconclusive X – symbolic of BREXIT? Kijun, 50wma and clouds resistance.

 EURGBP W 10 29 2021

Japanese Yen – USDJPY

USDJPY continues to test wave i after the recent weakness with Treasury yields. The 108.00 level should remain massive support for dollar-yen. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun as it breaks through the old channel. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 4/8 8/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

JPY W 10 29 2021

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso continues in the long triangle and consolidated despite outside uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.

MXN W 10 29 2021

Turkish Lire USDTRY

The Turkish Lire reversed after falling in 3 waves to explode over the Tenkan with the weekly cloud Kijun and 50wma below. The cloud and gap below offer targets with the Lire at all time lows resistance  equates tp Murrey Math and Fibonacci possibilities

 TRY W 10 29 2021

Bitcoin

Impulse begets inpulse. Bitcoin corrected impulsively since completing 5 waves up at +2/8 Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we saw extreme volatility. Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking . (Recall what happened after the CME and CBOE futures starts). From that high we have 2 alternatives a iii of a 1 down or (C) of IV meaning the recent high was a (ii) or 1 of a (v)

We have seen what you would expect from a 5 wave impulse peak, a violent correction or completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves. From there prices agitated towards those ATHs as news of a Bitcoin ETF fueled the rally, sound familar? But this time it wassn’t signalling we are in a 3 highprobability

BTC W 11 5 2021

BTC W 11 5 2021 Perspective 

 

 

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

 

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

 

Banks

Major US Banks Deliver Stoic Results in Q3, 2021

The major money cents banks released earnings with many record results for Q3. Mainly from trading and loss reserve releases from the pandemic kitty.  Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.

Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don’t exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.

Potentially the top six banks can buy back $11 billion in the first-quarter. Goldman Sachs shares after the announcement led the rally with a 7.7% increase. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan jumped 6.4% and 4.9% at intraday highs. Within minutes of the announcement all three banks have announced plans to resume buybacks in the new year.

Banks are also benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose. otal Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $737 billion during Q3 2020 to a record $60.113 trillion.

Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.  

“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

Keys focus this week is inflation reports see for the US, Mexico, Brazil, China and India. US CPI is seen at 5.8 percent, its highest level since December 1990 and well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. The preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment for November will likely show a slight improvement in morale, even as households remain concerned about mounting inflationary pressure. Other important US publications include producer prices, JOLTs job openings, the government’s monthly budget statement, and the final reading of wholesale inventories. We also get Q3 GDP figures for the UK, Malaysia and the Philippines; consumer sentiment for the US and Australia; and foreign trade for Germany. Also, central banks in Peru, Thailand, the Philippines and Mexico will be deciding on interest rates.

Busiest third-quarter earnings season with reports from Pfizer, Moderna, Qualcomm Inc, Airbnb, and Uber.

Central Banker and Geopolitics Watch speeches, reports and rate moves

Monday, November 8, 2021

  • 05:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
  • 09:00 Fed Vice Chairman Richard H. Clarida
  • 10:00 Boston Fed President Kenneth Montgomery
  • 10:30 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at conference on gender and economy, hosted by Fed
  • 10:55 New York Fed President John Williams
  • 12:00 Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
  • 12:00 Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
  • 13:50 Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
  • 14:00 Senior loan officers survey

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

  • 07:50 St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
  • 09:00 Fed Chairman Powell at conference on Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and European Central Bank
  • 11:35 San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
  • 13:30 Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Thursday, November `11, 2021

  • Veterans Day
  • Bond market closed

Friday, November 12, 2021

  • 12:10  New York Fed’s John Williams

Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and  in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

Economic Events in the Week Ahead:

SundayNovember 1, 2021

  • 18:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
  • 18:50 JPY Foreign Reserves (USD) (Oct)

Monday, November 8, 2021

  • 00:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Sep)
  • 00:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM) (Sep)
  • 01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
  • 02:45 EUR French Reserve Assets Total (Oct)
  • 04:00 SGD Foreign Reserves USD (MoM) (Oct)
  • 04:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confid
  • ence (Nov)
  • 05:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
  • 09:00 Fed Vice Chairman Richard H. Clarida
  • 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Oct)
  • 10:00 Boston Fed President Kenneth Montgomery
  • 10:30 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at conference on gender and economy, hosted by Fed
  • 10:55 New York Fed President John Williams
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 12:00 Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
  • 12:00 Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
  • 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
  • 13:50 Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
  • 14:00 Senior loan officers survey
  • 16:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)
  • 18:50 JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Sep)
  • 19:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
  • 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Oct)
  • 19:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Oct)
  • 19:30 AUD NAB Business Survey (Oct)

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

  • 00:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Oct)
  • 00:30 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
  • 02:00 EUR Gemran Current Account Balance n.s.a (Sep)
  • 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Sep)
  • 02:45 EUR French Current Account (Sep)
  • 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Sep)
  • 02:45 EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov)
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
  • 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
  • 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Oct)
  • 07:50 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 08:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 08:15 EUR ECB’s Enria Speaks
  • 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
  • 09:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 09:00 EUR ECB McCaul Speaks
  • 10:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
  • 11:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • 11:00 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
  • 11:35 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
  • 12:00 USD EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
  • 12:00 USD WASDE Report
  • 12:10 CAD BoC Deputy Governor Beaudry Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
  • 13:30 USD Sec Kashkari Speaks
  • 15:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 17:45 CAD BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
  • 18:00 KRW Unemployment Rate (Oct)
  • 18:00 JPY Reuters Tankan Index (Nov)
  • 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
  • 18:50 JPY M3 Money Supply (Oct)
  • 19:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
  • 20:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 20:30 CNY CPI (YoY) (Oct)
  • 20:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Oct)

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

  • 01:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
  • 02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 02:00 EUR German HICP (MoM) (Oct)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
  • 04:00 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 04:30 EUR ECB’s Elderson Speaks
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Delinquency Rates (QoQ)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Oct)
  • 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 12:00 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
  • 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Oct)
  • 16:45 NZD FPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 18:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Sep)
  • 18:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
  • 18:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
  • 18:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 19:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
  • 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Oct)
  • 19:30 AUD Employment Change (Oct)
  • 19:30 AUD Full Employment Change (Oct)
  • 19:30 AUD Participation Rate (Oct)
  • 19:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (Oct)
  • 21:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)
  • 21:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
  • 22:00 KRW M2 Money supply (Sep)
  • 23:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

Thursday, November 11, 2021

  • 02:00 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 02:00 GBP Construction Output (MoM) (Sep)
  • 02:00 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 02:00 GBP Index of Services
  • 02:00 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
  • 02:00 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep)
  • 02:00 GBP Trade Balance (Sep)
  • Tentative CNY FDI
  • 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
  • 04:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Sep)
  • 04:30 ZAR Mining Production (Sep)
  • 05:00 EUR ECB Forecast
  • 07:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
  • 07:15 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
  • 09:00 GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
  • 11:00 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
  • 12:30 CHF SNB Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks
  • 16:00 KRW Export Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
  • 16:00 KRW Import Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
  • 16:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Oct)
  • 19:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
  • 21:00 CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate
  • 23:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)

Friday, November 12, 2021

  • 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 02:30 CHF PPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish HICP (MoM) (Oct)
  • 03:30 HKD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
  • 08:50 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
  • 09:00 GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
  • 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Inflation Expectations (Nov)
  • 12:10 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. 

 

 

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