Traders Market Weekly: November 30 – December 6 2020

Join us in our weekly market thread.

Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community…

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Trading Places Winning Bet

 Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Jobs – Market Mania – Political Derision

The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?


Markets go a lot further than most expect in either direction. Machines have taken out human emotion, QE has taken out natural bull/bear cycles, it is the market we live in. With this new marketplace comes extreme moves BOTH ways be aware nothing is as it seems. In a week where the political divide grows deeper in the US with nothing but chirping at the other team the Dow is up nearly 13% for November so far on track for its best month since January, 1987. The promise of vaccines has calmed and emboldened the market with the S&P 500 closing at a record 3,638 and up 11.3% for the month. The gain is its best performance since April’s 12.7%, which was the third best month for the S&P 500 since its connoction in 1957.

The market has the belief the Fed Put saves all and has satisfied it’s self that Janet Yellen as the next treasury secretary is a great move. Hardly an inspired choice given her being often referred to by many as he most inept Fed chair ever. The choice of the next treasury secretary is important for the market. Who follows the Mnuchin, Powell act with a $3 trillion ballooning of the Fed’s balance sheet? The reasoning is that Yellen being ex Fed will work smoothly with current Fed Chairman Powell.

Then lets shift back, what happens if this Covid resurgance becomes something deeper, such as more lockdowns, more poverty, more unrest? Just in a week since the election we saw new restrictions imposed in New Jersey, Oregon, New Mexico, Idaho, Virginia, and California. Is the market already hedged or in a speculative blinker period?  We get it, the market is pricing securities for the eventuality of a favorable post-vaccine economic landscape. Bur, oh there are so many buts. Another but, Brexit talks are still ongoing (yeah really), the EU budget and rescue fund are at risk, and OPEC+ comes in with higher prices BUT more division in the Middle East, especially with Iran. This week will provide crucial updates to both the US labor market and global manufacturing sector. What is also clear President Trump is continuing to question the election, what twists are we to get?


  • Stockmarkets
  • Energy – Oil and Gas
  • Foreign Exchange
  • Gold and Silver
  • Fixed Interest & Banks
  • Risk Radar
  • Geopolitcs and Economy 
  • Week ahead


Stock Markets

Highlights – USA

  • Rotation was again the feature this week with new all time closing highs on both the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials. Risk on was highlighted by Bitcoin, Tesla and other EV names such as $FUV, $SOLO, $NIO, $XPEV, $CIIC, $KXIN, $LI to name a few
  • The S&P 500 jumped 2.3% (up 12.6% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 2.2% (up 4.8%). ‘
  • The Utilities were little changed (up 0.4%). The Banks surged another 5.4% (down 17.9%), and the Broker/Dealers jumped 4.7% (up 21.4%). The Transports advanced 2.7% (up 15.2%).
  • The S&P 400 Midcaps jumped 2.7% (up 6.9%), and the small cap Russell 2000 surged 3.9% (up 11.2%).
  • The Nasdaq 100 advanced 3.0% (up 40.4%). The Semiconductors jumped 3.0% (up 42.3%). The Biotechs gained 2.1% (up 8.8%).
  • With bullion off $83, the HUI gold index sank 5.4% (up 16.2%).
  • Ignoring risk continues to be the theme. Meanwhile, Wall Street strategists are climbing over each other to raise market targets.

 US Indices D 11 27 2020

Highlights – Europe

  • In Europe for the week U.K.’s FTSE equities index increased 0.3% (down 15.6%) France’s CAC40 gained 1.9% (down 6.4%). The German DAX equities index advanced 1.5% (up 0.7%). Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index jumped 2.7% (down 14.2%). Italy’s FTSE MIB index surged 3.0% (down 4.9%). 

Highlights – Asia

  • In Asia stocks. Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index surged 4.4% (up 12.6% y-t-d). South Korea’s Kospi index rose 3.1% (up 19.8%).  China’s Shanghai Exchange gained 0.9% (up 11.7%). 

Highlights – Australia

  • Stocks were 

Highlights – Canada

  • Stocks were 

Highlights – Emerging Markets

  • EM equities were higher mostly. Brazil’s Bovespa index surged 4.3% (down 4.4%), while Mexico’s Bolsa declined 0.7% (down 4.5%). India’s Sensex equities index added 0.6% (up 7.0%). Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index increased 0.4% (up 16.1%). Russia’s MICEX equities index jumped 3.0% (up 3.2%).

IPO mania is back in full force with Snowflake an indication of, which more than doubled on debut.

From rebalance as a natural reversion after the bull mania we have surged with another speculative rush. This after Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. IS that enough to rebalnce and go higher? The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998,  soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.

Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

 Top US Stocks W 11 27 2020

S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis via @KnovaWave

The SPX spat to new all time highs after the PFE news to consolidate back to the previous high and 7/8 Murrey Math Daily with a kiss of life, We have a number of alternatives ABCDE, Continuation of Wave 1 of 5 or the higher degree C,  Keep it simple  support is Tenkan and Kijun as Chikou rebalances. Important to note the high was a retest of the initial breakdown .

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages.  Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

SPX W 11 27 2020

Weekly SPX spat the 50 wma and Kijun powerfully in a 1-2 to test the break trend (white) – now resistance with MM 8/8 to +2/8. Major support is top of channel and Tenkan. We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.  Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

SPX W 11 27 2020 

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets.

Semiconductors SMH

SMH W 11 27 2020

Apple $AAPL

AAPL W 11 27 2020 

Amazon $AMZN

 AAPL W 11 27 2020

Energy and Commodities


  • TThe Bloomberg Commodities Index increased 0.9% (down 7.5% y-t-d).
  • WTI crude jumped $3.10 to $45.52 (down 26%).
  • Gasoline surged 8.9% (down 24%),
  • Natural Gas jumped 7.6% (up 30%).
  • Copper rose 3.4% (up 22%).
  • Wheat gained 1.3% (up 9%).
  • Corn rose 1.6% (up 12%).
  • Risk markets continue to respond to a Conronvirus outbreak and failed negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.
  • U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.
  • Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the ninth week in a row.

 BDI Freight Index

 BDI W 11 27 2020


 Copper W 11 27 2020

US Crude Oil (WTI)

In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.

WTI D 11 27 2020

WTI after it’s huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.

 These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.  

WTI W 11 27 2020

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.  

 NG D 11 27 2020

Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away. .

NG W 11 27 2020

Key Energy Reports


Precious Metals


  • Gold dropped 4.4% to $1,788 (up 17.8%).
  • Silver was spanked 7.0% to $22.775 (up 27.1%). 


Gold (AUG) fell 0.11% to settle at $1,801.9 but gained 0.66% for the week kGold exudes strength after it back tested the previous wave 3 after finally cracked the Tenkan after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +3/8. In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 reached on May 18. We have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs. Support Tenkan & Kijun. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.

 Gold W 11 27 2020


Silver  did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. no  Silver reverseds with much more violent impulse than gold . Given that we have to repsect this is a iii  but  here is also a chance this is an A  

 Silver W 11 27 2020

Forex Markets


  • For the week,  the U.S. dollar index fell another 0.7% to 91.79 (down 4.9% y-t-d). 
  • Majors for the week. On the upside the Australian dollar 1.2%, the euro 0.9%, the Canadian dollar 0.8%, the Swiss franc 0.6%, and the British pound 0.3%. For the week on the downside, the Japanese yen declined 0.2%.
  • Minors for the week,  For the week on the upside, the Norwegian krone increased 2.0%, the Swedish krona 1.4%, the New Zealand dollar 1.4%, the South African rand 1.0%, the Brazilian real 1.0%, the South Korean won 1.0%, the Singapore dollar 0.4%, the Mexican peso 0.3%. For the week on the downside, the Chinese renminbi declined 0.23% versus the dollar this week (up 5.85% y-t-d).

 Australian Dollar – AUDUSD

Aussie dollar continues higher after it competed 5 waves in emotive  fashion. with vigor spitting the 100% panic muster. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves Resistance cloud is a long way off.  Support Tenkan and Kijun. From here we watch for 2 or X

AUD W 11 27 2020

New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD

The Kiwi mirrored the AUD and has closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave. We are now above the Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 50wma

NZD W 11 27 2020

Canadian Dollar – USDCAD

The Loonie continues to correct in ABC after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower. We closed at the old 100% 61.8% confluence. Use Fib s for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up, 

CAD W 11 27 2020

 Euro – EURUSD

The Euro tested and held both the channel and cloud spits after so many false breaks to close at its best level since the BRexit spike. We are still in 3 waves so we need to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked.  Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance and Kijun above. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility. 

EUR W 11 27 2020

 EuroPound – EURGBP

Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

EURGBP W 11 27 2020
 Japanese Yen – USDJPY

Japanese Yen still stuck in channel trade, a series of failures and sharp bounces after X led 3 wave panic. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

JPY W 11 27 2020

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso has been correcting in ABC since it collapsed and spat 261% right back to the 100% Fib  We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise. 

MXN W 11 27 2020

  Turkish Lire USDTRY

USDTRY after completing the large 5 waves corrected back to the channel acceleration point and finished testing Tenkan. Alternative is we are still in Wave 5 and this is another 1- Kijun support well above cloud  Impulse is needed to pull away from here.  Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors.  TRY W 11 27 2020


Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud – we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

 BTC W 11 27 2020

Bond Markets (and Fed Watch)

Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $5.937 billion, and junk bond funds posted positive flows of $1.196 billion (from Lipper)

Highlights – Treasuries

  • Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 0.0725%. ‘
  • Two-year government yields slipped a basis point to 0.15% (down 142bps y-t-d).
  • Five-year T-note yields declined a basis point to 0.37% (down 133bps).
  • Ten-year Treasury yields added a basis point to 0.84% (down 108bps).
  • Long bond yields jumped five bps to 1.57% (down 82bps).
  • Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields increased a basis point to 1.36% (down 135bps).

 TNX W 11 27 2020

All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported a record $1.4 trillion of corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity,  funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. THe combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.

Highights – Mortgages

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates were unchanged at a record low 2.72% (down 96bps y-o-y).
  • Fifteen-year rates were unchanged at 2.28% (down 87bps).
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates jumped 31 bps to 3.16% (down 27bps).
  • Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up three bps to 2.97% (down 105bps).

Highlights – Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Leaves Rates and Bond Buying Unchanged After Election
  • Federal Reserve Credit last week jumped $24.4 billion to a record $7.214 trillion. Over the past year, Fed Credit expanded $3.212 trillion, or 80.3%. Fed Credit inflated $4.403 trillion, or 157%, over the past 420 weeks.
  • Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week jumped $16.8 billion to $3.459 trillion. “Custody holdings” were up $43.8 billion, or 1.3%, y-o-y.
  • M2 (narrow) “money” supply jumped another $41.3 billion last week to a record $19.108 trillion, with an unprecedented 38-week gain of $3.601 trillion. “Narrow money” surged $3.785 trillion, or 24.7%, over the past year.
  • For the week, Currency increased $4.5 billion. Total Checkable Deposits slipped $6.4 billion, while Savings Deposits surged $52.6 billion. Small Time deposits declined $7.2 billion. Retail Money Funds dipped $2.1 billion. Total money market fund assets declined $5.0 billion to $4.324 trillion. Total money funds surged $748 billion y-o-y, or 20.9%. Total Commercial Paper increased $0.8 billion to $984 billion. CP was down $155 billion, or 13.6% year-over-year.
  • The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure.

Highlights – European Bonds

  • In Europe Greek 10-year yields fell four bps to 0.65% (down 78bps y-t-d). Ten-year Portuguese yields declined a basis point to 0.01% (down 43bps). Italian 10-year yields fell four bps to 0.59% (down 82bps). Spain’s 10-year yields dipped one basis point to 0.06% (down 41bps).
  • German bund yields declined a basis point to negative 0.59% (down 59bps). French yields were little changed at negative 0.35% (down 46bps). The French to German 10-year bond spread widened one to 24 bps.
  • U.K. 10-year gilt yields declined two bps to 0.28% (down 54bps).

Highlights – Asian Bonds

  • Japanese 10-year “JGB” yield rose two bps to 0.03% (up 4bps y-t-d).


On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

Fed Financial Stability Report Risks May 2020

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Job Losses

October’s job report  showed  again the effect of return to school as highlighted by well over 1 million women leaving the workforce and many men also to take care of their children not returning to work. What is clear is the disconnect from the realities by pundits, particarlarly partisn biased rhetoric of the true damage to the economy, the social fabric and the selling of that as a new normal. Covid19 brought with it a new reality of brutal times for workers.

Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported under 800,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits for the second time since the crisis.  With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. The September employment report, the last before the election, showed a slower pace of job growth than in August. There were 616,000 nonfarm payrolls, from 1.37 million in August. The unemployment rate expected dropped to 7.9% from 8.4%.As economies slowly reopened, the economy generated than 12 million jobs in May through September. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and the big question is will they come back?

US Politics

Here we are a few days before the Nov. 3 election, the market is likely to thin out and with that is likely more volatility, especially if the outcome looks increasingly uncertain. Stimulus stories will be plied around the polls with the probability of having an unclear outcome, contested outcome or both. So far, more than 56 million Americans have voted early, which makes up 37% of total votes from the 2016 election. More than 38 million of these votes have been mail-in ballots. Election experts are predicting a record of 150 million ballots will be cast, meaning the U.S. could have the highest rate of voter turnout since 1908.

The upcoming presidential election is a huge risk with the intense split along Partisan lines of much of America. RealClearPolitics has President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden in the polls but with a falling margin. A potential for a resurgence in Covid cases will see Trump not benefiting from an economic recovery, and as a result a better chance of Biden being elected. Biden is representative of uncertainty for small business, energy and the working middle class in the main. Potentially higher taxes under a Biden administration are another worry. Biden has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, potentially weighing on companies’ earnings. A separate proposal to tax capital gains and dividends as ordinary income could prompt some investors to sell winners in order to lock in lower tax rates.

Stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list.  Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide. Politics influence all, directly or indirectly. 

The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences   In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.

Global Watch

Hot Spots

  • Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the China and India’s Himalaya border, a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
  • War between Armenia and Azberjazan has reopened tensions in the region.
  • China tightened its grip on Hong kong and threats with Taiwan continued.
  • Russia is showing the affects of low energy prices, filtering into the socio economic dynamic
  • Brexit and the EU is bubbling along with increasing antagonism with UK PM Johnson wanting  new deal based on Northen Island security anf freedom.
  • For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however. Voters will also be going to the polls in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.
  • Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?

    If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

  • Continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq. 


Trade Wars

  • Despite all the US and Chinese rhetoric we are led to believe trade talks between U.S. and China are still expected to recommit to the Phase one deal. China has increased purchases of U.S. oil ahead of their trade deal review, according to Reuters.On a more upbeat note, the UK struck its first post-Brexit trade deal with Japan as it seeks to make a success of leaving the EU.
  • Trump did say Phase 2 will be difficult and he sees the virus more important then trade with China..
  • In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..

Fat Tail Virus Risk

U.S. daily COVID cases have spiked to near 200,000, with Friday setting a new single-day record of over 195,000 new cases according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Unlike the first two “waves,” the surge in new infections is not dominated by particular metropolitan areas or a few large states. COVID has methodically dispersed throughout the heartland, with rural America in the crosshairs. This is a particularly troubling development for small town hospitals and healthcare systems facing limited capacity and scarce resources. Ominously, outbreaks have slammed many northern states early in the winter season. Over the coming weeks, the virus can be expected to shadow cooler weather advancing south. 

Covid US cases 11 15 2020

Several countries are tightening restrictions and contemplating lockdowns as infections accelerate, prompting concerns about the impact on world economies attempting to recover. Earlier this month when adjusting for population, the number of new coronavirus infections in Europe has now overtaken the United States in new cases per million people, based on a seven-day average.

Covid Global cases 11 15 2020

  • AstraZeneca and Johnson and Johnson (J&J) announced they had received permission to resume trials on a COVID-19 vaccine. AstraZeneca was on track to have a vaccine ready before the end of the year, while J&J had said its candidate would be ready by early next year.
  • The US deals with a number of pharmaceutical giants have topped roughly $10.79 billion as part of Operation Warp Speed, a program led by several departments within the federal government to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines and treatments to fight the coronavirus.
  • The operation aims to provide at least 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. The companies are Moderna Johnson & Johnson Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Pfizer and BioNTech Novavax and AstraZeneca
  • Hopes and fears of reopening can outweigh mixed earnings results. No surprise after increased testing, weeks of protesting, people in large airconditioning indoors we have record daily U.S. cases. The U.S. reported 1000 deaths 4 days in a row with coronavirus cases,
  • There does appear to a concerted effort to put the blame on an economy reopening and miraclously the mass ongoing priotests have nothing to do with that. Take that for what it is worth. There is little mention of the younger age group in the new cases and much lower mortality rate. Fear is the feature. Use commonsense in your own protection, spreading and decision making.



BE AWARE: Stay rational and be prepared for many alternatives, either way. With crisis comes opportunity. From a market point of view this is not unprecedented, many other bubbles have popped with similar results. What is unprecedented is the pandemic, the mass media and social media fear mongering, the massive QE and printing and the strange era of entitlement and no responsibilty fed down from politicians to the youth of today for electoral purproses.

Put all that together and we see the result.  Again this isn’t unprecedented just a different catalyst and fuel. Stay tuned. take a breath and think clearly. Oh and now we have the riots to throw on the kindling ….

  • Expect the Fed Stability Report warning on what happens if the pandemic worsens to be the go tto by Fed speakers (We are all watching to see if I spike aftet the Floyd protests and riots with no social distancing).
  • The backdrop is the Covid-19 crisis. Despite that the stockmarket is up over 40% from lows and stubborn bears and bulls alike are frustrated based on cognitive biases.
  • We continually focus on overcoming our biases and as the accompanying chart highlights stocks and the economy are NOT the same thing despite what we are told by our influencers and biased or selective recalls.


“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

Central Bank Watch speeches, reports and rate moves

Monday: Nov 23

  • 03:30 EUR ECB’s Enria Speaks
  • 05:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 09:00 EUR ECB Hakkarainen Speaks
  • 09:30 GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
  • 22:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
  • 22:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement

Tuesday December 1, 2020

  • 10:00 Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 12:00 FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 
  • 12:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 13:15 FOMC Member Daly Speaks
  • 15:00 Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 19:00 RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
  • 19:30 RBA Chart Pack Release

Wednesday Dec 2, 2020

  • 04:30 BoE FPC Meeting Minutes
  • 09:00 FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 10:00 Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 13:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 14:00 Fed Beige Book

Thursday December 3, 2020

  • None seen

Friday December 4, 2020

  • 04:30 MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
  • 09:00 Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 10:00 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and  in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

Economic Events in the Week Ahead:

Monday: November 30

  • All Day Holiday India – Guru Nanak Jayanti
  • 03:00 KOF Leading Indicators (Nov)
  • 03:00 Spanish CPI (MoM)
  • 05:00 OPEC Meeting
  • 05:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 05:00 Eurogroup Meetings
  • 08:00 German CPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Oct)
  • 08:30 CAD Current Account (Q3)
  • 09:00 Chicago PMI (Nov)
  • 10:00 Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  • 10:30 Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Nov)
  • 11:00 Cd Budget Balance (Sep)
  • 11:30 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions
  • 16:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (Nov)
  • 17:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
  • 18:00 KRW GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 19:00 KRW Trade Balance (Nov)
  • 19:30 KRW Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 19:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)
  • 19:30 AUD Current Account (Q3)
  • 19:30 AUD Private House Approvals (Oct)
  • 19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 20:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

TuesdayDecember 1, 2020

  • 01:45 CHF GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 03:15 Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 03:30 CHF PMI (Nov)
  • 03:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 03:50 French Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 03:55 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 03:55 German Unemployment (Nov)
  • 04:00 Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 04:00 Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 04:30 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 05:00 OPEC Meeting
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 08:55 Redbook (MoM)
  • 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 09:45 Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 10:00 Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct)
  • 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 10:30 Texas Services Sector Outlook (Nov)
  • 13:00 52-Week Bill Auction
  • 16:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 16:30 AIG Manufacturing Index
  • 16:45 NZ Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 19:00 US Total Vehicle Sales
  • 19:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)
  • 19:30 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Wednesday December 2, 2020:

  • 00:00 Japan Household Confidence (Nov) ‘
  • 02:00 German Retail Sales
  • 02:30 Swiss CPI (MoM)
  • 03:00 Spanish Unemployment Change
  • 04:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
  • 05:00 EU PPI
  • 05:00 EU Unemployment Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
  • 08:30 Canada Labor Productivity
  • 09:30 Seevol Cushing Storage Report
  • 09:45 US ISM NY Business Conditions (Nov)
  • 09:45 US ISM-New York Index (Nov)
  • 10:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM)
  • 10:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) 
  • 10:30 EIA Crude Oil Inventories 
  • 14:00 Fed Beige Book
  • 16:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Nov)
  • 16:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM) (Oct)
  • 17:00 AUD Services PMI
  • 19:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)
  • 19:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM)
  • 19:30 AUD Trade Balance (Oct) ‘
  • 19:30 JPY Services PMI (Nov)
  • 19:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 20:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Nov)
  • 22:35 JPY 30-Year JGB Auction

Thursday: December 3 2020

  • 03:15 Spanish Services PMI (Nov)
  • 03:45 Italian Composite PMI (Nov)
  • 03:45 Italian Services PMI (Nov)
  • 03:50 French Markit Composite PMI (Nov)
  • 03:50 French Services PMI (Nov)
  • 03:55 German Composite PMI (Nov)
  • 03:55 German Services PMI (Nov)
  • 04:00 EU Markit Composite PMI (Nov)
  • 04:00 EU Services PMI (Nov)
  • 04:30 UK Composite PMI (Nov)
  • 04:30 UK Services PMI (Nov)
  • 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts (Nov)
  • 08:00 SGD Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 08:30 US Jobless Claims
  • 09:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Nov)
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 16:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Oct)
  • 18:00 KRW Current Account (Oct)
  • 19:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  • 19:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI
  • 20:30 AUD Retail Sales (QoQ)

Friday December 4, 2020

  • 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)
  • 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Oct)
  • 03:30 EUR IHS Markit Construction PMI (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Oct)
  • 08:30 USD Employment Report (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)
  • 08:30 CAD Employment Report (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Oct)
  • 10:00 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative positions


Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. 

Earnings Week Ahead

Big banks kicked off third-quarter earnings reports on Oct. 13, helping to set the tone for the broader U.S. stock market, as businesses cope with the eighth month of the pandemic. Banks reaped the rewards of the initial public offerings and record corporate borrowings during the pandemic. Investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Everyone is expecting the worse. We will see critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.

Last week we heard from Agilent Technologies, Nutanix, Datto, Urban Outfitters, Cabot, Ambarella, Warner Music, Medtronic.Analog Devices, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, Hormel Foods, Tiffany & Co. Burlington Stores, Jacobs Engineering JM Smucker, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Abercrombie & Fitch, Vmware, Autodesk, Dell, HPQ, Gap, Nordstrom, American Eagle Outfitters,

This week we hear from:

  • Monday starts us off with Emcore Corp (EMKR), Golar LNG (GLNG), Guess ? (GES), Jiayin Group Inc (JFIN)
  • Tuesday with earnings from At Home Group Inc (HOME)Bank Of Montreal (BMO) Bank Of Nova Scotia (BNS) Box Inc (BOX) Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE) Kalvista Pharmaceuticals Inc (KALV) Momo Inc (MOMO) Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp (NNA) Netapp Inc (NTAP) Salesforce.Com Inc (CRM) Trip.Com Group LTD (TCOM)
  • Wednesday Earnings Include: Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO) Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) Daktronics, Inc. (DAKT) Descartes Systems Group Inc (DSG) Five Below Inc (FIVE) National Bank Of Canada (NA) Okta Inc (OKTA)Patterson Companies Inc (PDCO) PVH Corp (PVH) RH (RH) Royal Bank Of Canada (RY) Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Splunk Inc (SPLK) Synopsys Inc (SNPS) Verint Systems (VRNT) Zscaler Inc (ZS)
  • Thursday Earnings Include: Afya LTD (AFYA) Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commer (CM) Cloudera Inc (CLDR) Cracker Barrel Old Cntry STR Inc (CBRL) Docusign Inc (DOCU) Dollar General Corp (DG) Domo Inc (DOMO) Q3 10/1/20 Kroger Co (KR) Lands End Inc (LE) Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) Michaels Companies Inc (MIK) Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Science Applications Intl Corp (SAIC) Secureworks Corp (SCWX) Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) Zuora Inc (ZUO)
  • Friday Earnings include Big Lots Inc (BIG) Canadian Western Bank (CWB) Johnson Outdoors Inc (JOUT) Laurentian Bank Of Canada (LB)

IPO Week Ahead

US IPO market activity is up ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with seven IPOs scheduled to raise $3.6 billion in the week ahead.

  • Biotech research product provider Maravai LifeSciences (MRVI) plans to raise $1.3 billion at a $6.6 billion market cap. Maravai provides critical products to enable development of drugs, diagnostics, novel vaccines, and support research on human diseases. The company’s more than 5,000 customers include the top 20 global biopharmas by R&D spend. Maravai has seen increased demand in recent months due to COVID-19.
  • Lab service provider Sotera Health (SHC) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $6.0 billion market cap. Sotera Health provides sterilization, testing, and advisory services to research labs in the medical device and pharmaceutical industries. Slow growing and profitable, the company serves more than 40 of the top 50 medical device companies and 8 of the top 10 global pharmaceuticals by revenue.
  • Chinese cosmetics producer Yatsen (YSG) plans to raise $558 million at a $6.4 billion market cap. Yatsen makes cosmetics and skincare products under the brands, the Perfect Diary, Little Ondine and Abby’s Choice in China. The company is fast growing, though it was unprofitable in the 9mo20, and gross margin contracted due to COVID-19.
  • Multifamily REIT Aspire Real Estate Investors (ASPI) plans to raise $300 million at a $327 million market cap. Formed from predecessors Avanath Affordable Housing I and II, this REIT is focused on acquiring existing income producing affordable and workforce multifamily properties. Its initial portfolio will be comprised of nine multifamily projects, six of which are located in Opportunity Zones.
  • Cybersecurity solutions provider Telos (TLS) plans to raise $210 million at a $1.0 billion market cap. Telos provides a portfolio of security products and services. Profitable on an EBITDA basis, the company’s customers include the US federal government, large commercial businesses like Amazon and Citi, and international clients.
  • Clinical stage biotech Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) plans to raise $170 million at a $670 million market cap. Olema is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of next generation targeted therapies for women’s cancers. Its lead candidate, OP-1250, is currently in an ongoing Phase 1/2 trial in a subset of ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients, with initial data expected in the 2H21.
  • Online lottery and gaming provider NeoGames (NGMS) plans to raise $72 million at a $392 million market cap. The company provides B2G and B2B technology and services to state lotteries and other lottery operators in Europe and North America. NeoGames is fast growing, and its consumer base is expanding rapidly, with monthly active players up 70% y/y in 9mo20.


-comment section below data-

Last Week’s Big Stories

The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap

  • Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Build of +8 Bcf in Natural Gas Inventories
  • Around The Barrel – EIA Reports Crude Oil +4277k bbls Build v API -5147k bbls Draw
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report November 2020
  • EIA Expects Natural Gas Prices To Rise On Rising Domestic Demand, LNG Exports and Reduced Production
  • EIA Says New Oil Drilling Activity Production Will Not Offset Existing Wells Declines
  • US Employment Continues To Recover From Coronavirus Lockdown
  • Federal Reserve Leaves Rates and Bond Buying Unchanged After Election
  • U.S. New Auto Sales Fell For First Time Since April in Uncertain Times
  • Mexico Business Confidence Improves With Peso and Easing Covid Restrictions
  • RBA Cuts Australian Rates To Record Low 0.25%, Targets Yield Curve
  • US Manufacturing Continues Recovery, New Orders Highest Since January 2004 


  • Chevron Reports Profit Boosted by Capital Spending down 48% Operating Expenses down 12%
  • ExxonMobil Posts Third Straight Quarterly Loss But Seeing Early Demand Recovery

Subscribe and Follow

Find us at

  • Follow our contributors on Twitter @traderscom @thepitboss16 @knovawave @ClemsnideClem


Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *