Traders Market Weekly: May 31 - June 5 2021

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FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Memorial Day, Jobs and PMI

The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?

Editorial

Markets recovered much of the previous week’s swoon. We began with a large merger in the O&G sector with Cabot Oil and Gas merging with Cimarex which dissappointed the market hoping for higher prices. Again we saw wild swings in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Data wise we got more confirmation of a housing supply and price issue with inflation bubbling along.

The favorite inflation measure of the Fed, core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.1% ahead of consensus 2.9%,the most since 2018 and up from last month’s +1.8% year-over-year. The PCE Price Index jumped 0.7% m/m, over 0.6% expected, up from.4% prior.

New home sales fell 5.9% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000 from a downwardly revised 917,000 (from 1.021 million) in March. The median sales price increased 20.0% yr/yr to $372,400 while the average sales price jumped 20.8% to $435,400.

Global inflation reports remind us inflation is front and center. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at their April meeting, kept QE infinity open with TALF for open-ended Treasuries, MBS and corporate bonds in amounts needed. The gameplan per Fed Chairman Powell is likely to be on point for Fed speakers, a reminder from a few week’s back:

“So it seems unlikely, frankly, that we would see inflation moving up in a persistent way that would actually move inflation expectations up while there was still significant slack in the labor market. I won’t say that it’s impossible, but it seems unlikely… So that’s not to say inflation won’t—might not move up, but for inflation to move up in a persistent way that really starts to move inflation expectations up, that would take some time and you would think it would be quite likely that we’d be in very strong labor markets for that to be happening.”

There is the prospect of an overheating U.S. economy, but remember we are coming off a low base and the lockdown has decimated many sectors of the economy and people’s lives. The relevaton from the speed of technology adapting and disrupting to a new world with the lockdown is transformative. The shift has enabled and transformed the traditional economy that we measure future outcomes off.

We still need to add almost 20 million jobs in the US alone to get back to par. Europe is in worse shape, so overheating at this point isnt a concern for most policymakers. The unparalleled government monetary inflation has inflated many price levels and distorted asset markets BUT that was intended as to increase confidence in the ‘guts’ of the economy, homeowners and 401k holders. This point is missed by the uber bear community. From here is the big question. The RBA stability report gives us an insight into central banker thinking, they concluded Australian banks are in strong financial position coming out of pandemic and have abundant liquidity and funding,

The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off tis continuos dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.

After the monthly and weekly employment data the market will be going though whether the recent stimulus rounds are working with in the background of the Federal Reserve Continuing to downplay inflation risk.. We continued to see more rotation from tech to value stock, but a slower pace.

Of note during the Arctic Blast with the EV mania and the Biden Admin Green deal push we noted the spike in spot Texas electricity prices pushing the cost of electricity not on fixed plans to unheard of levels. Bloomberg reported on recharging a Tesla from about $18 to $900. Yes the price spike was fleeting but it should remind the sane amongst us the broader issue of the disconnect between the push toward electrification and our massively inadequate energy infrastructure. This is the area that needs investment, not just for our glorious EV but for all energy and possible disasters like we just saw.

Comments from Yellen and others on the same page suggest that low rates conveniently push potential debt instability far out into the future. The Fed is poised to expand its balance sheet, by adding liquidity to the tune of $1.5 TN this year with no regard for rampant asset price inflation and bubbles. Now the new administration has control of the blank checkbook and is determined to us it with no long-term thinking or planning; everything is short-term focused. Washington is gambling with our nation’s future, from kicking cans down the road to rolling drums down a hill.

Contents

Part A: Stockmarkets
Part B: Bonds
Fed and Banks
Part C: Commodities
Energy – Oil and Gas
Gold and Silver
Part D: Foreign Exchange
Geopolitics and Economics
Economy Week ahead

PART A – Stock Markets

Highlights – USA

The S&P500 slipped 0.4% (up 10.6% y-t-d),
Dow declined 0.5% (up 11.8%).
Nasdaq100 little changed (up 4.1%).
S&P 400 Midcaps dropped 1.2% (up 16.6%),
Small cap Russell 2000 dipped 0.4% (up 12.2%).
Utilities added 0.4% (up 4.7%). Transports sank 2.8% (up 23.7%).
Banks fell 1.0% (up 35.1%), and Broker/Dealers declined 1.2% (up 22.6%).
Semiconductors rallied 2.4% (up 9.2%). Biotechs gained 0.5% (down 2.5%).
With bullion surging $38, the HUI gold index jumped 4.4% (up 6.9%).

Highlights – Europe Stocks

U.K.’s FTSE equities index declined 0.4% (up 8.6% y-t-d).
France’s CAC40 was unchanged (up 15.0%).
German DAX equities index was little changed (up 12.5%).
Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index gained 0.6% (up 14.0%).
Italy’s FTSE MIB index rose 0.8% (up 12.3%).

Highlights – Asia Stocks

Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index rallied 0.8% (up 3.2% y-t-d).
South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed (up 9.8%).
India’s Sensex equities index surged 3.7% (up 5.8%).
China’s Shanghai Exchange was about unchanged (up 0.4%).
Australia’s ASX200 closed 16.1 points ahead or 0.2%, clawed back from Wednesday’s $41 billion nosedive. Miners and energy stocks were weaker as commodity price continued to cool. Commonwealth Bank hit a record high,

Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks

EM equities were mostly higher
Brazil’s Bovespa index added 0.6% (up 3.0%), and Mexico’s Bolsa advanced 1.1% (up 13.0%).
South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed (up 9.8%). India’s Sensex equities index surged 3.7% (up 5.8%). China’s Shanghai Exchange was about unchanged (up 0.4%).
Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index gained 0.7% (down 1.7%).
Russia’s MICEX equities index increased 0.6% (up 11.3%).

IPO and SPAC mania is back in full force with last years Snowflake an indication of and video game maker Roblox going public the most recent big hit.

From rebalance as a natural reversion after the bull mania we have surged with another speculative rush. This after Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. IS that enough to rebalnce and go higher? The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998, soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.

Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis via @KnovaWave

SPX rallied again to new all time highs, after testing and spitting tenkan san & 8/8 Murrey Math at the Daily Cloud & with a positive Chikou retest. We have a number of alternatives of degree (iii) or (iv) of 5, Keep it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun as Chikou rebalances.

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

Weekly SPX spat the break channel it had been tracing since the break of v of (III) or (V). Key was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan. To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.” Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets.

NADSAQ 100

Russell 2000

Semiconductors SMH

Watching Semiconductors cleanly with Murrey Math levels and Tenkan – keys are previous high at +1/8 and Chikou rebalance patterning. Weekly +2/8 around 250 key number recognition factor also. Below Kijun spat to provide support as the reaction from above continued.

NVidia $NVDA

Apple $AAPL

Amazon $AMZN

Amazon high was MM +3/8 and from there has built a large weekly flag which it closed under after breaking the Tenkan and Kijun, watch if Kijun closes through Tenkan for a bigger move. From there we have seen a series of work around that up and down. More coiling in affect.

ARKK ETF

US Stocks Watch

Earnings Week Ahead

This three-month period is the first to be compared to year earlier profits that were affected by the pandemic. For Q1 results in from more than half of the S&P 500 companies, earnings are now expected to have risen 46% from the previous year, compared with forecasts of 24% growth at the start of the month, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. About 87% of reports have come in ahead of analysts’ estimates for earnings per share, putting the quarter on track to have the highest beat rate on record going back to 1994, when Refinitiv began tracking the data. First-quarter corporate earnings likely benefited from the firming economic backdrop. With the US stock markets at record highs the downside to increasing profit expectations is the potential for some disappointments and that could cause adverse or stalled market to potentially.

Investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.

Last week we heard from

Walmart, Home Depot, Macy’s, Baidu, Take-Two Interactive, Trip.com, NetEase, Target, Lowe’s, JD.Com, Cisco, Shoe Carnival, TJX, Eagle Materials, Analog Devices, L Brands, BJ’s Wholesale, Kohl’s, Petco, Ralph Lauren, Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Deckers Outdoor, Hormel Foods, Palo Alto Networks, Deere, Foot Locker, Buckle, VF Corp, Booz Allen Hamilton Honda, Rosneft

This week we hear from:

Monday starts us off with

Lordstown Motors

Tuesday with earnings from

Nordstrom, Toll Brothers, Intuit, Agilent, Autozone, Cracker Barrel, Pershing Square Holdings, Urban Outfitters, Zscaler

Wednesday Earnings Include

NVIDIA, Snowflake, Bank of Montreal, Capri Holdings, Abercrombie and Fitch, Dick’s Sporting Goods, American Eagle Outfitters, Workday, Pure Storage, Designer Brandsm Williams-Sonoma, Okta

Thursday Earnings Include

Best Buy, Salesforce.com, Costco, Dell Technologies, Box, Ulta Beauty, VMWare, Autodesk, Lions Gate, Canadian Imperial Bank, Toronto Dominion, Burlington Stores, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Royal Bank of Canada, Medtronic, Gap

Friday Earnings include

Big Lots, Hibbett Sports

These are the highlighted earnings for the US this week. Please check daily schedules for more reports.

IPO Week Ahead

Three IPOs are scheduled to raise $794 million in the week ahead, joined by one direct listing.

Set to begin trading Wednesday, job marketplace ZipRecruiter (ZIP) plans to complete a direct listing on the NYSE, with an estimated market value at listing of more than $3 billion. ZipRecruiter operates an online job marketplace that matches employers and job seekers. Despite having a large reach with over 90 million job postings and 36 million job seekers in 2020, the company faces high competition from large companies such as LinkedIn and Facebook.

Healthcare apparel brand FIGS (FIGS) plans to raise $394 million at a $3.4 billion market cap. This apparel company designs, markets, and sells scrubs and other related clothing for healthcare professionals. FIGS is fast growing and profitable, though its use of more expensive air freight to meet customer demand weighed on gross margin in the 1Q21.

Payment processor Flywire (FLYW) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.6 billion market cap. Flywire provides a global payments platform for the education, healthcare, and travel verticals. The company operates in large underserved markets and has a sticky customer base. Organic growth slowed in 2020 due to the pandemic, and investments in S&M and R&D will weigh on margins in the near term.

Electronic billing platform Paymentus (PAY) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Paymentus provides cloud-based bill payment technology for more than 1,300 business clients. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though increased investments in opex will hurt margins and profitability in the near term.

IPO data via Renaissance Capital

Part B : Bond Markets

Highlights – Treasuries

Why the angst in the bond market?

The FOMC presented new economic projections including a forecast of 6.5% for gross domestic product this year with PCE inflation going to 2.4% this year, but falling to 2% next year. Powell reiterated that the Fed sees only a temporary pickup in inflation this year because of the base effects against last year’s numbers when prices fell. The Fed will target an average range of inflation around 2%, meaning it could exceed that threshold for some time which is a change to the Fed’s ground rules. The majority of Fed officials did not see any interest rate hikes through 2023. With the passing of the $1.9 trillion splurge a FOMO surge lifted stocks last week but now all eyes on yields dampened the enthusiasm.

What concerns bond holders and impacts stocks over the past weeks is the Fed appears to be too Blaise about inflation. This view got added weight when crude oil hit the highest prices since 2019 after OPEC decided to stay pat on production for April. But since then Crude has fallen over 12% in just a week from those highs. Hence why Powell has said “We’re going to wait to see signs of actual inflation or the appearance of other risks that could threaten the achievement of our goals. And we’ve seen that the economy can sustain exceptionally low levels of unemployment without inflation.”

There is a view that Powell also refuses to be dictated to and set the bond bullies up for failure. The V reversal this month suggests that. Air needs to come out of the market, particularly Tech, this is best illustrated by the ARK Funds and Semi-Conductor SMH ET’s (see below). From here we have another massive $1.9 Trillion stimulus. Is that enough to keep asset prices elevated, hard to fight the Fed and that kind of cash floating around. Watch the argument from analysts that higher yields mean the economy is growing, stocks are value versus hyperinflation is on its way.

Raise your eyes and look at the stopped car in front of you you may want to hit the brakes.The pandemic is not close to our greatest worry, nor is energy it seems. The runaway credit bubble in the era of delusion and entitlement has multiple unintended consequences or are they intended? The stockmarket has lost rationality the danger is should the bubble pop the consequences of a historic debt crisis in a deeply divided nation and unprepared social and geopolitical backdrops could be earth shattering as the Fed disregards asset inflation and bubble dynamics.

Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $1.682 billion, while junk bond funds posted outflows of $1.705 billion (from Lipper).

In the US last month, spending of $972 billion was up from the year ago $356 billion, while receipts increased to $268 billion from $237 billion. Washington borrowed 70 cents of every dollar it spent last month. About 50% of the $3.41 TN first-half expenditures were debt-financed. Worse yet, our federal government is on track for back-to-back years of $3.0 TN plus annual deficits.

Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at negative 0.0025%.
Two-year government yields added a basis point to 0.15% (up 3bps y-t-d).
Five-year T-note yields increased one basis point to 0.82% (up 46bps).’
Ten-year Treasury yields declined a basis point to 1.62% (up 71bps).
Long bond yields declined two bps to 2.32% (up 67bps).
Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields were unchanged at 1.86% (up 52bps).

All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported a record $1.4 trillion of corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity, funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. THe combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.

Highlights – Mortgage Market

U.S. home prices have been fueled by the lowest mortgage rates in history and relocation demand have risen rose at the fastest pace on record, surpassing the peak from the last property boom in 2005. The median price of a single-family home climbed 14.9% to $315,000 in the fourth quarter, the biggest surge in data going back to 1990. The Northeast led the way with a 21% gain.”

Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose six bps to 3.0% (down 24bps y-o-y).
Fifteen-year rates gained three bps to 2.29% (down 41bps).
Five-year hybrid ARM rates were unchanged at 2.59% (down 58bps).
Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up four bps to 3.11% (down 53bps).

Highlights – Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Credit last week surged $91.3bn to a record $7.875 TN. Over the past 88 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $4.148 TN, or 111%.
Fed Credit inflated $5.064 Trillion, or 180%, over the past 445 weeks.
Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week dropped $9.8bn to $3.531 TN.
“Custody holdings” were up $143bn, or 4.2%, y-o-y.
Total money market fund assets jumped $25.3bn to $4.541 TN. Total money funds dropped $248bn y-o-y, or 5.2%.
Total Commercial Paper increased $5.2bn to $1.199 TN. CP was up $141bn, or 13.3%, year-over-year.

We do know we have massive speculation pockets, viz a viz the Meme or GameStop, Weed stocks and cryptocurrency spectacles in just the matter of weeks. The Fed is today throwing additional fuel on historic speculative manias.

The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure.

Highlights – European Bonds

Greek 10-year yields sank nine bps to 0.97% (up 35bps y-t-d).
Ten-year Portuguese yields declined four bps to 0.56% (up 53bps).
Italian 10-year yields fell four bps to 1.03% (up 49bps).
Spain’s 10-year yields declined three bps to 0.555% (up 51bps).
German bund yields were unchanged at negative 0.13% (up 44bps).
French yields dipped two bps to 0.25% (up 58bps).
The French to German 10-year bond spread narrowed about two to 38 bps.
U.K. 10-year gilt yields fell three bps to 0.83% (up 63bps).

Highlights – Asian Bonds

Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields dipped a basis point to 0.08% (up 6bps y-t-d).

Part C: Commodities

Highights

The Bloomberg Commodities Index declined 1.2% (up 16.5% y-t-d).
WTI crude dropped $1.79 to $63.58 (up 31%).
Gasoline fell 2.7% (up 47%),
Natural Gas declined 1.9% (up 15%).
Copper sank 3.7% (up 27%).
Wheat dropped 4.7% (up 5%).
Corn gained 2.4% (up 33%).
Bitcoin collapsed $12,707, or 25.4%, this week to $37.313 (up 28%).
Risk markets continue to respond to a Conronvirus outbreak and failed negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.
U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.
Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the ninth week in a row.

BDI Freight Index

The Baltic Dry Index rose 1.6% to 2,869 on Friday, extending gains for a third straight session’
Capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, surged 3% to 3,930;
Panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and iron ore rose 0.5% to 2,855. ‘
Among smaller vessels, supramax index added 34 points to 2,408.
The Baltic Dry Index was down 2.4% in the third week of May, amid a global slowdown in prices of key commodities such as iron ore and steel as China stepped up efforts to cool a high demand-driven rally in raw material prices. . source: Baltic Exchange

Copper

Copper has been a leader in the risk on movement, The weekly channel since the low has captured the move and has rebalanced thr chikou after the power spits of +8/8 and +2/8. Support at the tenkan and the median line this week

US Crude Oil (WTI)

Daily: WTI has formed a double top circa $68 and has failed over +1/8 multiple times giving us clear resistance. Last week we tested and spat the daily kijun and 50 dma to close under the tenkan as the market rebalanced at the mid point of the month’s range. We have been effectively consolidating since we broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September, In any break the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics.

We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This week that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit. Support is the 50dma, old channel & prev high confluence. Resistance is Tenkan Kijun & 50 dma, MM and previous highs.

Weekly: WTI corrected off previous highs after it failed to create new highs and rebalanced chikou, indicative of extreme crowd behavior reversing at 7/8 after the series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, From here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Oil tested and held support at Tenkan. This move gains support after Kijun tested and broke back through the 50 wma, giving it a kiss of life. It must retain this energy to take out new highs last seen 2019.

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas has played out both the corrective and consolidation phases since it completed its B or IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Bear is this 3 wave is a C of B, bull a developing 5 and we closed under the daily cloud which needs to be recaptured for the natags bulls. Tenkan failed after the arctic blast with more failure after Kijun crossed Tenkan. Support is previous breaks. Resistance is 8/8 and recent highs.

Natty has moved in a series of 3’s in a large pennant since spat the 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan BUT this week all gave way other than the weekly Kijun in it’s larger developing pennant. Support is the cloud and 50wma. A series of fractals, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.

Key Energy Reports

Precious Metals

Highlights

Spot Gold jumped 2.1% to $1,881 (down 0.9%).
Silver gained 0.5% to $27.56 (up 4.4%).

Gold

Gold bulls got a strong trading week as weaker bond yields are keeping the dollar vulnerable to further losses. Gold’s primary driver is real yields and now that the 10-year real yield is back at the March lows in an extended consolidation that could see further downward pressure for Treasury yields. Gold is benifitting from China giving banks permission to import bullion. Gold has massive support at the $1750 level and tentative resistance at the $1800 region, followed by the $1858 level.

After its manic rise to +5/8 weekly and rebalance of the Kikou in 5 waves then tested and failed the Tenkan, kijun and 50 wma. We found support at the wave 1 confluence of the higher degeree 5, To be bullish we would need to recapture the cloud (or the flag 🙂 In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 is a key harmonic pivot. We appear to have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs BUT NOT yet Tenkan & Kijun fails. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.

Silver

Silver is back at the cloud, key 38% and 50wma providing support after the correction following the squeeze which forced Gold/Silver which buoyed silver in the PM space, eventually we reversed with a double top Knowing that recall Silver did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. The weekly Tenkan crossing the Kijun would signal more downside. Note the MM

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Highlights

For the week,the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.3% to 90.02 (up 0.1% y-t-d).
Majors for the week on the upside, the Swiss franc 0.4%, the British pound 0.4%, the Japanese yen 0.4%, the euro 0.3%, the Canadian dollar 0.3%. On the downside, the Australian dollar 0.5%
Minors for the week on the upside, South African rand increased 1.2%, South Korean won 0.2%, and the Swedish krona 0.1%. On the downside, the Norwegian krone declined 1.9%, the Brazilian real 1.7%, the New Zealand dollar 1.1%, and the Mexican peso 0.5%. The Chinese renminbi increased 0.05% versus the dollar this week (up 1.45% y-t-d).

Australian Dollar – AUDUSD

Aussie dollar completed a 5 at the pysch 80 level and it back doing a break retest of 8/8 and the weekly tenkan. as one would expect after it completed 5 waves in emotive fashion. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves but between the Tenkan and Kijun like many commodities.The AUDUSD old three year high of 0.7820 from January 6. is a key option energy point playing out.

New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD

The Kiwi has been strengthening after RBNZ policy mostly went as expected with no changes with interest rates or its large-scale asset purchases. NZD has mirrored the AUD in its wave (iii) spit and has since closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave and running to the 38% Fib & 6/8 confluence. Support the Kijun and Resistance Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 6/8 spits.

Canadian Dollar – USDCAD

The Loonie hit in 3 year high this week as it continues to benefit from dollar weakness and commodity currency strength led by the AUSD and NZD after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower (USD higher) We closed ender the old 38.8% confluence. Use Fibs for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up

Euro – EURUSD

The Euro continues to correct in flags after broke the channel last May. after ABC (IV) then retested the tenkan to spit the +1/8 in 5 waves from there we closed the week back testing the tenkan (orange) and now Kijun (pink). A question of degree on recent high – 1 complete or 1 of 3?, Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked. Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility.

British Pound – USDGBP

The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.

EuroPound – EURGBP

Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

Japanese Yen – USDJPY

USDJPY has declined for two consecutive weeks following the recent weakness with Treasury yields. BOJ could start to decrease purchases and that should thwart some yen strength. The 108.00 level should remain massive support for dollar-yen as long as Treasury yields start to stabilize. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso corrected the collapse to +1/8 against the USD right back to the 100% Fib We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.

Turkish Lire USDTRY

The Turkish Lire had corrected back to the weekly cloud to bounce to the Kijun, correcting back through Tenkan. The Turkish Central Bank removed its tightening bias and scrapped the end-2021 inflation target in a dovish move. The Turkish lira has plunged about 11% since Naci Agbal was fired as the central bank governor in March.

Bitcoin

In the last 12 months Bitcoin exploded after it spent a year consolidating under the 61.8% spit. Each tenkan and kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of life to over 423% of that consolidation. Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking . (Recall what happened after the CME and CBOE futures starts)

From there we have seen what you would expect from a 5 wave impulse peak, a violent correction or completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Job Losses

May 20 – Reuters (Lucia Mutikani): “The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped further below 500,000 last week, but jobless rolls swelled in early May, which could temper expectations for an acceleration in employment growth this month… Initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 444,000 for the week ended May 15, compared to 478,000 in the prior week…That was the lowest since mid-March 2020…”

Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported under 800,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits for the second time since the crisis. With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and the big question is will they come back?

US Politics

May 20 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): “Corporations around the world should pay at least a 15% tax on their earnings, the Treasury Department said… as part of its push for a global minimum for businesses. The final rate could go even higher than that, according to a Treasury release that said the 15% minimum is a ‘floor and that discussions should continue to be ambitious and push that rate higher.’”

May 18 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): “Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called… for business leaders to pay higher taxes to support government stimulus spending, and backed stronger labor unions and lowering barriers to foreign competition… Yellen reiterated the White House’s intent to raise taxes on corporations and the highest earners as part of an ambitious infrastructure spending plan. The administration also is seeking a global corporate minimum tax in an effort to stop companies from relocating their bases to avoid higher levies at home. ‘With corporate taxes at a historical low of one percent of GDP, we believe the corporate sector can contribute to this effort by bearing its fair share: we propose simply to return the corporate tax toward historical norms,’ Yellen said…

” May 15 – Wall Street Journal (Ben Chapman): “Police departments in New York City and other large metro areas across the U.S. are bulking up patrols and implementing new tactics to prepare for what they say could be a violent summer. States lifting Covid-19 restrictions and more people out in public spaces in warmer weather increase the likelihood of more shootings, as well as less-serious crimes, officials say… Shootings and homicides in big U.S. cities are up this year again after rising last year. In the last three months of 2020, homicides rose 32.2% in cities with a population of at least one million, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Quarterly Uniform Crime Report.”

The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences In a fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.

Global Watch

Hot Spots

May 19 – Reuters (Nidal Al-mughrabi, Stephen Farrell and Jeffrey Heller): “Israel bombarded Gaza with air strikes and Palestinian militants resumed cross-border rocket fire on Tuesday after a brief overnight lull during which the U.N. sent a small fuel convoy into the enclave, where it says 52,000 people are now displaced. Israeli leaders said they were pressing on with an offensive to destroy the capabilities of the armed factions Hamas and Islamic Jihad, amid calls by the United States and other world powers for an end to the conflict.
”Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the China and India’s Himalaya border, a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
May 21 – Bloomberg: “A tightening of Chinese developers’ use of secretive funding is threatening to curb growth in the world’s second-largest economy. For years, China’s property developers have drawn on shadowy pools of capital to fund their projects. Now, government scrutiny is reining in that system, after already curbing traditional avenues of funding. Debt-laden developers including China Evergrande Group will likely need to scale back growth and resort to other means such as equity financing and spinning off more assets for financing to avoid defaults.
‘Polarization among Chinese developers will deepen this year, and more developers are likely to suffer from debt failures,’ said John Sun, co-managing partner at Aplus Partners Management Co… Weaker developers ‘will need to sell assets to fight for survival, while some will likely default on their debt.’”
May 19 – Reuters: “Taiwan will tighten curbs on the use of water from June 1 in the major chip making hubs of Hsinchu and Taichung as it battles an islandwide drought, if there is no significant rainfall by then, the government said… Describing the drought as the worst in the island’s history, the economy ministry said in the absence of rain it would raise the drought alert level to its highest, requiring companies in the two science parks to cut water consumption by 17%.”
“France’s public deficit is expected to reach 9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said…, up from a previous forecast of 8.5% as the country enters its third national coronavirus lockdown. The change follows a downward revision of France’s growth forecast from 6% to 5% for this year… Le Maire… said France’s public debt was set to reach 118% of GDP this year, up from its latest forecast of 115%.”
May 20 – Reuters: “German producer prices rose by 5.2% year-on-year in April, the biggest increase in nearly a decade…, in a further sign that supply bottlenecks are leading to increased inflation pressure in Europe’s largest economy. The rise in producer prices followed a 3.7% year-on-year increase in March and compared with a Reuters poll forecast of 5.1%. Compared to the previous month, producer prices were up 0.8% in April…”
May 20 – Associated Press (Vladimir Isachenkov): “Russian President Vladimir Putin alleged… some of the country’s foreign foes dream about biting off pieces of the country’s vast territory, warning that Moscow would ‘knock their teeth out’ if they ever try. In strong remarks during a conference call with officials, the Russian president noted that foreign efforts to contain Russia date from centuries ago. ‘In all times, the same thing happened: once Russia grew stronger, they found pretexts to hamper its development,’ Putin said… ‘Everyone wants to bite us or bite something off us, but those who would like to do so should know that we would knock their teeth out so that they couldn’t bite,’ the Russian leader said. ‘The development of our military is the guarantee of that.’”c
May 17 – Bloomberg (Eduardo Thomson, Valentina Fuentes and Matthew Malinowski): “Chilean assets plunged after the ruling coalition suffered a surprise drubbing in the election for a constituent assembly, placing the writing of a new charter firmly in the hands of the left-wing. The benchmark stock exchange closed down 9.3%…, while the peso fell 2.3%. Yields on Chile peso bonds due in 2030 jumped 22 bps to 3.82%. Candidates from the ruling coalition obtained just 37 of 155 seats on the assembly designed to write the new constitution… Contenders unaffiliated with any political parties secured 65 seats. The result means the ruling coalition falls short of the one-third threshold they needed to block market-unfriendly clauses in the new charter.”
For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however.
Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq.

Trade Wars

Trade wars persist between Australia and China. The largest exporter of commodities and the worlds largest importer of commodities. China is experiencing record cold weather and it’s beligerance is hurting shooting itself in the foot. Regional partners such as Japan and India have supported Australia’s standing up to Chinese bullying.
In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..We are awaiting Biden’s offical resposne.
Chairman Chi and President Biden had a phone hook last month week with the US saying they will review all policies but tariffs to stand in the meantime. China continued it’s theats on the matter.

Fat Tail Virus Risk

May 21 – CNBC (Nate Rattner): “The U.S. is reporting an average of fewer than 30,000 new Covid cases per day for the first time in nearly a year. The seven-day average of new infections is about 29,100 as of Thursday, according to… Johns Hopkins University. This marks the first time the average has dipped below 30,000 since June 22, 2020. Federal data shows the country is reporting 1.8 million daily vaccinations on average over the past week, with 48% of the population having received one shot or more.”
Fauci believes 70%-85% of the population must be vaccinated to reach herd immunity.

Banks

The major money cents banks released earnings with many record results for Q1. Mainly from trading and fees from IPO’s and SPAC’s. Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.

Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don’t exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.

Potentially the top six banks can buy back $11 billion in the first-quarter. Goldman Sachs shares after the announcement led the rally with a 7.7% increase. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan jumped 6.4% and 4.9% at intraday highs. Within minutes of the announcement all three banks have announced plans to resume buybacks in the new year.

Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose. otal Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $737 billion during Q3 to a record $60.113 trillion.

Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.

“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

The key focus in the week ahead for the US is Big retailers earnings like Walmart and Home Depot and a slew of housing-related data. The Fed releases minutes from its last meeting Wednesday, and there are a number of central bank speakers with traders looking for comments after April’s consumer inflation was way hotter than expected. There are dozens of earnings expected in the week ahead. Another weekly key is the jobless figures after Thursday’s report of the lowest level since the early days of the pandemic.

Central Banker and Geopolitics Watch speeches, reports and rate moves.

Monday: May 24 2021

08:05 BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
09:00 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
12:00 Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
17:30 Kansas City Fed President Esther George

Tuesday May 25, 2021

10:00 Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles at Senate Banking Committee
12:00 MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
22:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
22:00 RBNZ Rate Statement
23:00 RBNZ Press Conference

Wednesday May 26, 2021

15:30 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Quarles
21:00 KRW Interest Rate Decision (May)

Thursday May 27, 2021

07:00 MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
08:00 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

Friday May 28, 2021

None Seen

Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

Economic Events in the Week Ahead:

Sunday, May 23 2021

18:45 NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ)
18:45 NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1)
18:45 NZD Retail Sales Quarterly Vs. Year Ago (Q1)

Monday, May 24 2021

All Day Holiday Germany – Pentecost
All Day Holiday Switzerland – Pentecost
All Day Holiday Canada – Victoria Day
01:00 SGD CPI (YoY) (Apr)
08:05 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Apr)
09:00 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
12:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
17:00 KRW Consumer Confidence (May)
20:00 SGD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

000:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
02:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (May)
02:30 CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)
03:00 CHF GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
03:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (May)
03:30 CHF procure.ch PMI (May)
03:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (May)
03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (May)
03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (May)
03:55 EUR German Unemployment
04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Apr)
04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (May)
04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (May)
05:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
05:00 EUR French Car Registration (YoY)
05:00 EUR CPI (MoM)
05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Apr)
06:00 USD OPEC Meeting
08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Mar)
09:30 CAD GDP (YoY) (Q1)
09:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI (May) 57.0
09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (May) 62.1
10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Apr)
10:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
10:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (May)
11:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index’
14:00 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
18:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (Q1)
19:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales
19:00 KRW CPI (MoM) (May) ‘
19:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)
19:50 JPY Monetary Base (YoY)
21:30 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
21:30 AUD GDP Capital Expenditure (Q1)
21:30 AUD GDP Chain Price Index (Q1)
21:30 AUD GDP Final Consumption (Q1)
21:30 AUD RBA Chart Pack Release

Wednesday June 3, 2021

02:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Apr)
03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
04:30 GBP BoE Consumer Credit (Apr)
04:30 GBP Mortgage Lending (Apr)
05:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
05:00 EUR PPI (MoM) (Apr)
06:15 EUR ECB’s Elderson Speaks
07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index ‘
08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Apr)
08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
09:00 SGD Manufacturing PMI (May)
09:30 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (May)
10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (May)
11:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
11:45 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
12:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
12:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
13:00 EUR German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
13:10 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
14:00 USD Beige Book
14:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
14:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
14:00 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
18:05 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
18:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (May)
19:00 AUD Services PMI 20:30 JPY Services PMI (May)
20:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (May)
21:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)
21:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
21:30 AUD Trade Balance (Apr)
21:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (May)

Thursday, June 3, 2021

All Day Holiday Brazil – Corpus Christi Day
03:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (May)
03:45 EUR Italian Composite PMI (May)
03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (May)
03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (May)
03:50 EUR French Services PMI (May) ‘
03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (May)
03:55 EUR German Services PMI (May)
04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (May)
04:00 EUR Services PMI (May)
04:30 GBP Composite PMI (May)
04:30 GBP Services PMI (May)
07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (May)
08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) ‘
08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
08:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1)
08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1)
09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (May)
09:45 USD Services PMI (May)
10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)
10:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage
11:00 USD EIA Crude Oil Inventories
11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction’
11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
12:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
12:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
13:50 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
15:05 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
19:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (Apr)
21:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM)

Friday, June 4, 2021

01:00 SGD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
03:00 CHF SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks
03:00 EUR German Buba Mauderer Speaks
03:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
03:30 EUR IHS Markit Construction PMI (May)
04:30 GBP Construction PMI (May)
05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
07:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
07:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May)
08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (May)
8:30 USD Government Payrolls (May)
08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (May)
08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
08:30 USD Participation Rate (May)
08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (May)
08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (May)
08:30 CAD Employment Change (May)
08:30 CAD Full Employment Change (May)
08:30 CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q1)
08:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (May)
08:30 CAD Participation Rate (May)
08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (May)
10:00 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Apr)
10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Apr)
10:00 CAD Ivey PMI n.s.a (May)
10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (May)
13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats.

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Traders Market Weekly: May 31 – June 5 2021

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