October 1 – 6, 2022
FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community…
The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?
Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.
- Part A: Stock markets
- Part B: Bonds
- Fed and Banks
- Part C: Commodities
- Energy – Oil and Gas
- Gold and Silver
- Part D: Foreign Exchange
- Geopolitics and Economics
- Economy Week ahead
September drew to an end with US stocks suffering their worst monthly rout since March 2020 after markets were repeatedly pummeled by the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising interest rates until inflation is under control. Heavy losses were notched on the week, month and quarter. The S&P 500 posted its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2009. US Treasuries dropped Friday after a late selloff into the month-end, with the benchmark 10-year yield around 3.82% after poking through 4% late in the week.
One of the biggest overhangs was Apple, $AAPL dropped 8.1% this week, with most of those losses on Thursday and Friday. The selling was attributed to worries about demand for the new iPhone driven by weaker consumer demand. Apple’s problems bled over to other mega-cap names and supplier stocks, the major indices, and a plethora of funds that hold it as a core position. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) declined 3.4% this week, leaving it down 10.7% for the month.
The market rupture is a tripod of destruction unfolding. Firstly, financial asset overvaluation has swung way past any sound underlying economic wealth structure. Secondly over-leverage in crowded bets. Thirdly we have greed enthused, as always in these cycles, risk engineering, transfer and management that ignores or understands bifurcation and contagion outcomes.
The pattern of trashing interest rate-sensitive technology stocks and early-stage companies with no pathway to profits continued globally these issues posted huge losses. The only support is coming from government assisted ‘fake markets’ such as solar. We all know how transitory that can be.
Leverage has become toxic, a development that if not addressed will have deep and with far-reaching sequels. It’s not too farfetched to suggest that the markets are on the verge of a rupture that would be difficult to contain. Should the crisis of confidence dynamics that hit Britain feed into other markets a powerful global contagion could be unleashed. The markets are dislocated, and financial stability is at risk. A sobering thought is the UK is just the initial first world pension system in this cycle facing the harsh reality of a steep devaluation of assets and the prospect of widespread insolvencies and debilitating negative sentiment.
The turmoil that gripped the British pound and gilt markets sent a shock through asset and credit markets buckling under pressure from soaring yields and fund outflows. Banks pulled a $4 billion leveraged buyout financing, the IPO market is like a ghost town as investors baulked at risk. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rates hit 6.70% for the first-time since July 2007 last week, according to a survey of lenders released Thursday by Freddie Mac. lt marked the sixth week in a row of rising rates. This week’s rate was up from 6.29% last week. A year ago, rates were 3.01%. The surge in mortgage rates follows the Federal Reserve aggressively raising rates five times this year. Fed officials have indicated more increases are likely in the months ahead.
What needs to be noted is this credit cycle is not confined to junk, the speed of these interest rate rises has seen investment-grade debt funds have perhaps the biggest cash withdrawals ever and spreads widened to the most since 2020. These were the worst third quarter returns since 2008. The Fed’s key measure of inflation overhangs with Core PCE prices in the US was 0.6% month-over-month in August of 2022, above market expectations of a 0.5% rise. Core PCE unexpectedly rose to 4.9% from upwardly revised 4.7 percent in the prior month and expectations of 4.7.
The dramatic moves in commodities and other paper assets underscores the fragility of illiquid one-way markets. Futures and commodities saw another period of extreme volatility in the third quarter of 2022 as central banks aggressively rose interest rates globally to belatedly fight inflation. These movers sent the USD soaring, with the British Pound hitting an all-time low. The Chinese Yuan, Euro and Japanese Yen hitting historical lows.
Commodities had violent swings depending on how big the reversal to the mean was after the moves at the start of the year. Trillions upon Trillions of same way bets, dominos falling. Consistency was not a theme for example in energy; natural gas was the strongest commodity up 25.85% while Gasoline was the second weakest with a loss of 32.94%. Derivatives strategies that assumed liquid and continuous markets and get out strategies now face an illiquid and discontinuous world.
Geopolitical tensions also continue to deepen as Russia’s Putin vowed his annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine is irreversible and President Joe Biden declared that a massive leak from the Nord Stream gas pipeline system in the Baltic Sea was an intentional act.
More kerosene was thrown on the fire when Goldman Sachs slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 3600 from 4300, arguing that a dramatic shift in the outlook for interest rates moving higher from the FOMC will weigh on valuations for US equities.
The higher interest rate scenario in Goldman’s valuation model supports a price-earnings multiple of 15 times, down from 18 times previously. The update by FedEx of their earnings and announced $2.9 billion in cost savings highlighted the global risk. Goldman said the risks to its latest forecast are still skewed to the downside because of the rising odds of recession that would widen the yield gap and potentially push the US equity benchmark to a trough of 3150.
Bank CDS Prices Surged (Again)
Let’s take a step back though earlier in the week cracks had already deepened.
- Chinese “big four” bank CDS all spiked further to multi-year highs. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) CDS jumped another 17 to 137 bps (42bps 2-wk gain). China Construction Bank CDS rose 14 to 141 bps (46bps 2-wk gain). Bank of China CDS rose 17 to 136 bps (42bps 2-wk gain), and China Development Bank CDS jumped 15 to 125 bps (39bps 2-wk gain).
- Emerging Market CDS jumped 14 bps this week to a two-month high 331 bps (began the year at 187bps). Ten-year yields spiked 73 bps in Poland, 62 bps in Croatia, 52 bps in Hungary, 43 bps in Czech Republic, 41 bps in Peru, 35 bps in Lithuania, and 33 bps in Romania. Dollar-denominated EM bond yields continue to spike higher. Yields were up 29 bps in Panama, 23 bps in Indonesia, 21 bps in Saudi Arabia and 13 bps in the Philippines. CDS spiked 32 bps in Brazil and 31 bps in Colombia.
- Global bank CDS are imploding. Credit Suisse CDS surged 32 bps to a record 254 bps. Credit Suisse CDS remained below 200 bps throughout the 2008 crisis, later spiking to 150 bps during the March 2020 panic. UK banks NatWest (plus 16), Lloyds (12), and Barclays (11) all posted double-digit CDS gains.
- Citigroup CDS jumped 10 to 134 bps, the high since March 2020. JPMorgan CDS rose five (to 111bps), Bank of America nine (116bps), Morgan Stanley eight (131bps) and Goldman Sachs five (135 bps) – all highs since the pandemic panic.
- U.S. high-yield CDS surged 42 to 610 bps, trading this week to the high since May 2020. Investment-grade CDS added two to 108 bps, also the high since the pandemic crisis period.
- The VIX traded to 35, the high since the June spike.
- The bond volatility MOVE index surged to almost 160, just below the March 2020 spike high..
Emerging currencies sold off with the Russian ruble down 3.8%, the Colombian peso 3.5%, the Hungarian forint 3.0%, the Brazilian real 2.8% and the Peruvian sol 1.8%. China’s renminbi (or yuan) fell to the lowest level since 2008 as the country’s central bank holds back from intervening to prop up the currency in response to the rallying dollar. South Korea’s central bank saying it will buy as much as $2.1 billion worth of sovereign debt to support the Won.
Ahead is Fed Speakers, Putin Threats and More
Another big week for central banks:
Investors are now awaiting jobs data next week for further clues about the Fed’s rate-hike trajectory. Upcoming inflation and GDP readings will also provide details on whether price pressures are easing meaningfully. All eyes will be on the earnings season, which starts next month, for insight into how companies are managing through headwinds that include a strong dollar, rising expenses and slowing demand. Fears of a global recession are still mounting as the threat of higher rates saps growth.
Fed Reserve’s speakers return as the FOMC comes out of blackout. Multiple regional Fed district bank Presidents will give their interpretations of the Fed’s recent actions.
- Monday – BoJ SOO, Bank of Israel Announcement
- Tuesday – RBA Announcement
- Wednesday RBNZ Announcement
- Thursday ECB Minutes (Sep) Federal Reserve speakers icludes FRB Chicago President Charles Evans taking part in moderated Q&A, FRB member Lisa Cook speaking at the Peterson Institute, and FRB Cleveland President Loretta Mester discussing the economic outlook.
- Globally final Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Final Services & Composite PMI (Sep)
- In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Durable Goods (Aug), ADP (Sep), ISM Services PMI (Sep), Jobs Report (Sep)
- In Europe, Swiss CPI (Sep), German Trade Balance (Aug), EZ Retail Sales (Aug), German Industrial Production/Output (Aug), Norwegian GDP (Aug)
- In Asia Pacific, Japanese Tankan Survey (Q3), South Korean CPI (Sep), Australian Trade Balance (Aug), Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Sep)
Earnings and Events
- Earnings Focus is on Conagra (CAG), Constellation Brands (STZ), and Levi Strauss (LEVI) this week.
- Auto stock sales and deliveries reports Tesla (TSLA), Li Auto (LI), Nio (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Ford (F), and General Motors (GM).
- OPEC+ ministers decide on November production policy Tuesday – October 4. The internal Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of several OPEC+ ministers will also meet and may provide a policy recommendation.
- Google’s (GOOGL) Pixel hardware event is expected to include updates on the new Pixel 7, Pixel 7 Pro, and Pixel Watch. Thursday – October 6
Independence – Never Take It for Granted Traders
“In aggregate, the market goes from order to disorder, and on that journey little pockets of order can form, including in commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies that circle back and reorder disorder. Then there is us the market player that reflects through order and disorder in an ever-evolving loop towards independence. It all starts with gravity and ends with equilibrium and back we go.” KnovaWave “The rules of market flux”
The Fed has kicked off its first real tightening campaign since 1994, with securities markets already at the brink of illiquidity and dislocation. Markets could soon be screaming for assurances of the Fed’s “buyer of last resort” liquidity backstop, while the Fed is prepared to begin withdrawing liquidity by selling Treasuries and MBS.
Another important aspect is the Fed doesn’t Control corporate pricing or wage decisions. Let us be clear geopolitical, climate change developments and what an out of depth, politically motivated administration are outside the Fed’s sphere of influence. There has been over $5.1 Trillion new “money” in 126 weeks, it’s a reasonable conclusion the Fed has lost control of Inflation.
The VOLX`s underlying instrument is the Mini VIX™ Future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility. The VIX is calculated using a formula to derive expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of out-of-the-money puts and calls (options) on the S&P 500.
When the VIX is highly reactive, VIX related products can serve as potentially effective hedging tools, when the VIX is not very reactive, traditional hedging techniques may be a better choice.
Monetary inflation is running wild. In 2021 Federal Reserve Credit expanded $1.391 TN or 19% to a record $8.742 TN. The Fed’s balance sheet inflated a mindboggling $5.015 TN, or 135%, in the 120 weeks since QE was restarted in September 2019. Federal Reserve Assets have now inflated 10 times since the mortgage finance Bubble collapse.
We need to grasp all the risks to be wary off and received plenty of flak from it. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focused on the crowd psychology aspect over the past few weeks.
“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”– MoneyNeverSleeps
Our weekly reminder for risk. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.
PART A – Stock Markets
Weekly Highlights – USA
- S&P500 fell 2.9% (down 24.8% y-t-d),
- Dow declined 2.9% (down 20.9%).
- S&P 400 Midcaps declined 1.6% (down 22.5%),
- Small cap Russell 2000 dipped 0.9% (down 25.9%).
- Nasdaq100 fell 3.0% (down 32.8%).
- Utilities sank 8.8% (down 9.3%).
- Banks slumped 3.1% (down 27.5%),
- Broker/Dealers stumbled 2.1% (down 15.7%).
- Transports slipped 0.6% (down 26.8%).
- Semiconductors dropped 4.2% (down 41.5%).
- Biotechs gained 0.7% (down 18.3%).
- With bullion recovering $17, the HUI gold equities index rallied 8.1% (down 24.9%).
Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week
Cboe Daily Market Statistics
US Markets YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -21.0% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -22.5% YTD
- S&P 500: -24.8% YTD
- Russell 2000: -25.9% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -32.4% YTD
Global Stock Market Highlights
Highlights – Europe Stocks
- STOXX Europe 600: +1.5% Friday (-0.8% for the week)
- 52week change -15.73%, Year to date change -19.97%
- Stoxx 600 +1.5% Friday -0.8%
- German DAX +1.1% -1.4
- French CAC +1.5%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.5% -1.5%
- Italy MIB +1.6 -2.0%
- Spain IBEX -0.2% -2.7%
Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.
Highlights – Asia Stocks
- Japan’s Nikkei: -1.8% (-2.7% for the week)
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.3% (-4.0% for the week)
- China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.6% (-2.1% for the week)
- India’s Sensex: +1.8% (-1.2% for the week)
- South Korea’s Kospi: -0.7% (-5.9% for the week)
Highlights – Australian Stocks
- Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.2% at 6474.2 Friday (-1.6% for the week)
- Only sector higher was materials on gains among iron ore and gold miners. Iron ore futures in Singapore for delivery in October climbed 1.2%t to $US96.65 a tonne
Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks
EM equities reacted to currency valuation
- Brazil’s Bovespa index declined 1.5% (up 5.0%),
- Mexico’s Bolsa index lost 1.7% (down 16.2%).
- Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index dropped 3.1% (up 71.2%).
- Russia’s MICEX equities index sank 6.3% (down 48.3%).
Daily: SPX500 performed a perfect competitive wave that started the rally at extreme fear and bear that ended with no fear. Then here we are back at the most bearish since 2009. Recall last time we rallied through the daily Tenkan to retest May’s break. The spit of the Kijun set the wave 3 or C up with power to close at the June lows. This level is now critical and is our trading Bear/Bull pivot in a high vol scenario. Watch each measured 3 wave move on the 240 & Murrey Math highlighted in the podcast. The prices pulled through the downward cloud pulled by the twist ‘helium contusion’ on the completive.
Recall the fuel from the top of the channel after completing 3 waves off ATH, accelerated after broke the Tenkan through to the 4600 OI where it reversed with impulse back to Tenkan Bulls this a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is 1-2 of (i) completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple resistance is Tenkan and Kijun and watch for ABC. From no fear to panic is the driving element.
For fractal purposes, SPX completed 5 waves up where it reversed with impulse with energy fueled from the power impulse down from +1/8 ATH spit of a spit fail. On the way down (just like up) it accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then through the median after tapping 8/8.
The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the Tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in
The S&P 500 reversed lower spiting the weekly cloud and then we got 6 straight weekly falls. For major cycles we watch the S&P 500 over 4,231, the 50% retracement of losses from the Jan. 3 & June 16 close. Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement & then gone on to make new cycle lows. Is this time different, as we test those June lows? We have accelerated down back to the 38% correction; do we spit the previous low. Power came from rejecting the cloud. From there back rejection at Kijun. the Tenkan as one would expect in a 3 or C, i.e impulse right to the weekly cloud is needed for cycle switching. For that you would have to break the Kijun and 50wma.
The flat weekly Kijun acted as a magnet as the Spoos blasted back up through the wave iii or C lows. Each new high evolved after testing Tenkan key support on the way and we are now getting a retest as resistance. We reiterate this needs to be recovered for a resumption of the uptrend meanwhile the bear market plays out. Watch Tenkan this week and watch for Kijun reaction. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.
THE KEY: Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan. To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.” Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances
A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets
Since the Nasdaq spat the weekly MM 5/8 and retested it, we have seen impulse from the median, Tenkan confluence spit to close at recent highs at the Tenkan retesting after it broke the Kijun last month and downward channel resistance. The Nasdaq is well behind the S&P pace with the weekly cloud and 50wma well above. Support the break up level and between the 38/50 Fibs.
Recall ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.
The Dow like the Nasdaq closed at the weekly Tenkan after bouncing back to test that Tenkan and Kijun after the reaction here off the weekly cloud. Support is the channel and previous breakups.
The small cap Russell RUT had been developing a large flag which it did a false break to fuel the selling from there we replicated to the down (Adam’s theory). Russell 2000 low-price tested the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 2020 low before bouncing higher.
After some delay we broke through Tenkan and Kijun which had rejected the bounce highlighting its weakness. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Closed right in the middle of the cloud. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. 8/8 support collapsed on the way down and is now major resistance.
Semiconductors SMH clean with reaction from above reverted with the retest & break of the triple top patterning in a pennant. Pull from Chip Shortage players $ON $TSM $NVDA $ASML $AMD $QCOM $AVGO $TXN $INTC $AMAT $LRCX $XLNX
NVidia’s latest slide was off another earnings week, back to lows at 4/8 after a failed breakup retest from May 2021. NVidia is a clear leader of #SOX #SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes. Above is the Key Break (mauve) and Tenkan to a flat cloud. Support the recent low at the 61.8% extension.
One of the biggest overhangs was Apple, $AAPL dropped 8.1% this week, with most of those losses on Thursday and Friday. The selling was attributed to worries about demand for the new iPhone driven by weaker consumer demand. Apple’s problems bled over to other mega-cap names and supplier stocks, the major indices, and a plethora of funds that hold it as a core position. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) declined 3.4% this week, leaving it down 10.7% for the month.
A firm rejection at $175 at +2/8 triggered a waterfall down for Apple. On the way up Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level on the way down these levels became key energy levels all the way to $132. Support held at the May break (just like NVDA) where from there it spat the cloud pulled by a flat Tenkan and Kijun as it rebalanced Chikou. It closed right at the old channel break and MM 8/8 which is now key. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.
The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) finally found some support at -1/8 and the 423.6% extension! The fund is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, it has not been a pretty slide.
The ARKK ETF trading clinically, tested triangle breakdown and failed off 50 WMA. Some work at support at 61.8% of whole move and then wrecked again. Clear crowd behavior, we saw ATH in NASDAQ & SPX, yet this couldn’t raise a bid – very telling negative divergence. $ARKK rebalanced Chikou at week’s end
US Stocks Watch
Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.
Earnings Highlights This Week:
- No major earnings expected.
- Acuity Brands (AYI) and SMART Global (SGH).
- RPM International (RPM), Helen of Troy (HELE), Lamb Weston (LW).
- Conagra (CAG), Constellation Brands (STZ), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), McCormick (MKC), and Levi Strauss (LEVI).
- Tilray (TLRY)
US IPO Week Ahead:
Part B: Bond Markets
Inflation with Henry Kaufman
Kaufman is the legendary chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers is someone who knows Inflation. Henry Kaufman in an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker Jan 14, 2022:
“I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”
“The longer the Fed takes to tackle a high rate of inflation, the more inflationary psychology is embedded in the private sector — and the more it will have to shock the system.”
“‘It’s dangerous to use the word transitory,’ Kaufman said. ‘The minute you say transitory, it means you’re willing to tolerate some inflation.’ That, he said, undermines the Fed’s role of maintaining economic and financial stability to achieve ‘reasonable non-inflationary growth.’”
The rubber is meeting the road as the trifecta of rising interest rates, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and surging costs continues to weigh, this has been no surprise to us here and shouldn’t have been to the market and PTB. You can only play with fire for so long before you get scorched!
Food prices have reversed sharply after being almost vertical for the past year, world food prices as measured by the FAO Food Price Index fell for the fifth consecutive month in August. The index was down 2.7 points (1.9%) from July, however remained 10.1 points (7.9%) above its value a year ago. At 138.0 the index is well under the record high 159.7 from March. Price falls were seen in all the five sub-indices of the FFPI in August, with monthly percentage declines ranging from 1.4 percent for cereals to 3.3 percent for vegetable oils.
With all the redirection of blame at the Fed about inflation one has to understand it is a global phenomenon outside the Fed’s Control. With the war drums louder than ever the supply chain issues are out of control. The Federal Reserve is not in control of global energy and commodities prices.
Everything points to powerful inflationary dynamics and a Federal Reserve so far “behind the curve.”
Highlights – Treasuries
“This is shaping up to be the most volatile year for Treasuries in over a decade, as uncertainty about the impact of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening whipsaws yields. The yield on 10-year US notes has traded in a range of at least 10 bps in 50 of 95 trading days so far in 2022. That puts it on track for an annual rate of more than 130 episodes, which would be the highest since 2009.”May 18 – Bloomberg (Garfield Reynolds)
Investment-grade bond funds posted outflows of $10.299 billion, and junk bond funds reported negative flows of $3.003 billion (from Lipper).
U.S. Treasuries selling interest picking up across the curve late in the day. The 10-yr note yield pivoted from 4.00% to 3.75% Friday. Quarter-end trading dynamics likely played a part there, although inflation data hurts with Eurozone CPI a record-high 10.0% yr/yr in September and the core-PCE Price Index for August trended higher to 4.9% yr/yr from 4.7% in July. Stock prices faded away (again), unable to hold onto earlier gains.
- 2-yr: +3 bps to 4.20% (unchanged for the week)
- 3-yr: +2 bps to 4.21% (-2 bps for the week)
- 5-yr: +5 bps to 4.03% (+5 bps for the week)
- 10-yr: +4 bps to 3.79% (+10 bps for the week)
- 30-yr: +7 bps to 3.76% (+14 bps for the week)
All good until markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported record corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity, funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. The combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushed strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.
Key Rates and Spreads
- 10-year Treasury bonds 3.83%, up +0.14 w/w (1-yr range: 1.08-3.98) (new 10 year high)
- Credit spread 2.20%, up +0.10 w/w (1-yr range: 1.65-4.31)
- BAA corporate bond index 6.03%, up +0.24 w/w (1-yr range: 3.13-6.03) (new 10 year high)
- 30-Year conventional mortgage rate 6.82%, up +0.12% w/w (1-yr range 2.75-7.08) (new 10 year high)
- 10-year minus 2-year: -0.43%, up +0.20 w/w (1-yr range -0.52 – 1.59)
- 10-year minus 3-month: +0.56%, up +0.07% w/w (1-yr range 0.04 – 2.04)
- 2-year minus Fed funds: +1.14%, up +0.02% w/w
Instability is pronounced, credit defaults are on track to rise in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, according to a survey by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers. The economic slump is likely to occur later this year or in 2023, according to the survey.
Highlights – Mortgage Market
- Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged 41 bps to 6.70% (up 369bps y-o-y) – the high since July 2008.
- Fifteen-year rates spiked 52 bps to a 15-year high 5.96% (up 368bps).
- Five-year hybrid ARM rates jumped 33 bps to 5.30% (up 282bps) – the high since January 2009.
- Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up 27 bps to 6.82% (up 362bps) – the high since March 2009.
Highlights – Federal Reserve
- Federal Reserve Credit declined $10.8bn last week at $8.773 TN.
- Fed Credit is down $128bn from the June 22nd peak. Over the past 159 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $5.046 TN, or 135%.
- Fed Credit inflated $5.962 Trillion, or 212%, over the past 516 weeks.
- Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week sank $18.3bn to a seven-week low $3.366 TN. “Custody holdings” were down $118bn, or 3.4%, y-o-y.
- Total money market fund assets increased $6.4bn to $4.590 TN. Total money funds were up $46bn, or 1.0%, y-o-y.
- Total Commercial Paper added $1.7bn to $1.230 TN. CP was up $45bn, or 3.8%, over the past year.
Highlights – European Bonds
- Greek 10-year yields surged 26 bps to 4.84% (up 352bps).
- Italian yields rose 18 bps to 4.52% (up 335bps). Spain’s 10-year yields gained 11 bps to 3.29% (up 272bps).
- German bund yields rose eight bps to 2.11% (up 229bps).
- French yields jumped 12 bps to 2.72% (up 252bps).
- French to German 10-year bond spread widened four to 61 bps. U.K. 10-year gilt yields surged 27 bps to 4.09% (up 312bps).
Highlights – Asian Bonds
- Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields added a basis point to 0.24% (up 17bps y-t-d).
Federal Reserve Gives All Banks a Pass in Annual Bank Stress Test
The Federal Reserve released its annual bank stress test after the market last quarter. All 34 large banks tested remained well above their risk-based minimum capital requirements, and the Fed announced no restrictions relating to dividends and buybacks. With the dismal state of the economy through soaring inflation and record low consumer sentiment these tests were keenly watched. Banks suffered slightly more hypothetical losses in the 2022 severe test than last year, posting $612 billion in projected losses as capital ratios fell to 9.7%. Read More Here.
Part C: Commodities
“Commodity markets are struggling to shake their months-long liquidity crisis that’s brought an era of erratic swings in the value of the world’s raw materials. The giant price fluctuations that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled markets for everything from natural gas to crude oil and metals. Trading activity in most raw material markets has sunk to low levels. Open interest in oil last week hit the lowest since 2015, while natural gas, sugar and aluminum futures holdings all remain at or near the lowest levels in years. In out-of-control power and gas markets, spiking prices are limiting the number of contracts traders can hold because of surging collateral requirements. In oil, macro investors have pulled bets on raw materials as an inflation hedge after central banks began hiking rates. All the while, some traders have turned their backs on the London Metal Exchange after the crisis in nickel trading earlier this year.”September 13 – Bloomberg (Alex Longley and Yongchang Chin)
- Bloomberg Commodities Index declined 0.8% (up 12.4% y-t-d).
- Spot Gold rallied 1.0% to $1,661 (down 9.2%).
- Silver recovered 0.8% to $19.028 (down 18.4%).
- WTI crude increased 75 cents to $79.49 (up 6%).
- Gasoline surged 3.8% (up 11%),
- Natural Gas declined 0.9% to $6.766 (up 81%).
- Copper rallied 2.1% (down 24%).
- Wheat surged 4.7% (up 20%),
- Corn was little changed (up 14%).
- Bitcoin recovered $270, or 1.4%, this week to $19,400 (down 58%).
Risk markets continue to respond to the war in Ukraine and the supply crisis from the Coronavirus outbreak and lockdowns.
BDI Freight Index
- The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index on Friday snapped its four-session long streak of declines to gain 3 points to 1,760 and had its best month in 2 years propelled by a corresponding rise in capesize and panamax demand.
- The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels gained about 82.4% for the month, its best since June 2020. However, the BDI registered a second straight quarterly dip, shedding 21.4%.
- The capesize index (.BACI) also snapped a four-day long losing streak and added 1 point to 1,955. For the month, it soared 547%, logging its best performance since June 2020.
- Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as coal and steel-making ingredient iron ore used in construction, were up $12 at $16,214.
- Capesizes lost about 20% for the quarter, in part due to waning demand from top steel producer China amid COVID-19 lockdowns over the period.
- The panamax index (.BPNI) rose 19 points, or about 1%, to 2,082. It rose 71% on its best month since September 2013. However saw its second straight quarterly decline of about 16.2%.
- Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, increased $175to $18,742.
- The supramax index (.BSIS) fell 11 points to 1,663.
We analyze Alcoa as a surrogate to Aluminum given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.
We have seen $AA retest the previous high after the +3 Spit as the Chikou rebalanced. We have the Gap below at +1/8 confluence. We move to 240 for this pennant resolution.
Copper rebounded sharply off the 50wma but again has failed on the cloud spit and channel break. The flattening Weekly Tenkan and Kijun acted as a magnet to close right there. #HG power spits have quickly rebalanced back into the wide channel. Copper had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities.
Lumber prices were a leading indicator of the supply-chain problems and inflation that followed pandemic lockdowns.
Lumber futures for July delivery ended Friday at $695.10 per thousand board feet, down 52% from a high in early March. On-the-spot wood prices have plunged, too. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks cash sales, fell about 12% last week to end at $794. That is down from $1,334 in March, just before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.
USDA September WASDE Report
KnovaWave analyze US Wheat futures given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.
Wheat bounced between the 50 and 61.8% Fibs. Drawn higher by the flat weekly cloud and supported by 0/8 which held. It closed over the 50wma after holding the 61.8%. The contract stabilized after it continued its sharp impulsive collapse fueled from when it retested and broke the Tenkan (orange). This came about after a failure at retesting the 8/8 move and high after it spat 8/8, and the minimum target. It had completed a measured 4/8 correction off highs then broke key support at 38% then 50% and 50wma confluence in the freefall. From here Wheat support at that $700 cloud confluence with the breakup level at 61.8% resistance, then Kijun and Tenkan.
Corn replicated last week’s price action as it recovered from its freefall it has worked its way up spitting off Kijun at the 7/8 and holding the top of the weekly cloud after Tenkan and 50wma was recaptured. Earlier in the year Corn had topped out at the highest since 2012 in Chicago at +1/8 and corrected with impulse back to break the Tenkan which it swiftly did a spit of a spit after bouncing off 720, which also the price successfully retested the high from April 2021. From here we saw Tenkan fail again, and empowered selling smashed through previous high, Kijun and 7/8 confluence. The 50wma gave no support with the cloud and 6/8 slowing the selling down. All these levels are now significant.
Soybeans rejected the 50 wma to close near the lows for the week after it was rejected harshly at the Tenkan, under the Kijun finding support at 6/8. Rejection at the Cloud base, and we sit near the January breakup. The weekly cloud and Murray mingle around the $14.6/bushel benchmark are massive.
Recall beans broke down from the bull pennant framed by +4/8 and +1/8 with the Kijun unable to sustain support right at the breakout. Support at the 50wma gave way to under the futures pivot at $15/bushel benchmarks and at the close of the week was a magnet to the recovery bounce. Pressure came from futures spitting the Weekly +4/8 over $17.50/bushel three times. The market needs to rebalance that energy.
US Crude Oil (WTI)
Measuring oil MM recalculation higher to almost +2/8 and 161.8% Fib retest. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. Support is previous lows and Tenkan. Resistance Kijun and 50dma which it needs close above for a rally to get legs.
Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures traded over $94bbl after reversing off last Tuesdays $86.53Bbl, the lowest settle since January 25, it closed the week above the 50wma. That was after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Risk support is the grid. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Resistance Weekly Tenkan & Kijun and Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations.
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
US Natural Gas has continued higher after it completed 3 waves correcting the daily 8/8 spit correction to -2/8. Two clear alternatives, we are correcting the highs 5 or that was a 3 and we go higher. We closed over the 2 most recent highs and +1/8 right. Support is Tenkan, Kijun below.
The Cloud top broke Kijun and Tenkan with a kiss of life. Meaning that 3 was either an a i or iv– impulse in a nutshell. Prior to this move the adjunct failure of the 50dma and Tenkan opened up the retest of 3.80-3.60 last time which fueled this week’s move higher. From there we fell sharply to the Kijun, A completion of 4 (bear) or (i) of 5 (bull) which gave this move sustenance
Notice the fractals of the move after completing the C of 4 bullish scenario played out the consolidation phase since it completed its IV (Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. For the bulls all this needs to hold for the highs to be a (iii) looking at possibilities we have the 161.8% at 7.026 if we get ‘silly’ 50dma support.
Like the larger wave on the way up it accelerated through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and new highs. We successfully tested that break in a pennant ABC. Previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and 8/8 and new highs underscore the structure that fed the move and is key longer term.
Notably no sharp reversal, like the previous impulsive spikes. We saw a clean break of the Kijun to close back over near highs. This move was fueled by a fractal of the classic double top playing out after a spit of the weekly Kijun was sent back off Tenkan only to reverse all the way to spit the 50wma for the energy needed. Resistance is Previous highs and Murrey Grid.
The Natural gas rebalanced after continued to fail and retrace with impulse after reaching its major target, the double top potential from 2014 which equated nicely to over 8/8 Weekly and showed true impulse off that to rebalance Chikou. It’s now a question of degree, 3 or 5? Impulse just shy of the 8/8 and Tenkan confluence. A question of continuation with the 50wma as resistance and cloud as support.
Key Energy Reports
- Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Outlook with European Supply Tightness & Scorching Summer
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Outlook
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report July 2022
- World Natural Gas Production and Delivery the Modern Geopolitical Weapon
- Renewables Sources Make Up 13% of Global Power Generation in 2021
- Wind and Solar Generate More Energy Than Nuclear Power
- China Overtakes Europe as World’s Biggest Renewable Electricity Generator
- Coal Consumption Rebounded to Near Record Highs as Primary Energy Consumption Soared in 2021
- Energy Crisis Pushes German Gas Giant Uniper SE To Seek 9 Billion Euro Bailout
- American Gasoline Prices Hit Record High $5 per gallon
Gold futures back testing the median after another rejection at the Tenkan (orange). Needs gets impulse off this ABC off this cloud or double top gains more weight and it follows silver weakness The yellow metal is consolidating after it accelerated after breaking the weekly triangle higher. Gold has bounced after support at it’s uptrend line since the August 2021 bottom and Kijun. It garnered strength after rebalancing after manic rise to +5/8 weekly rebalance of Chikou in 5 waves. To be bullish we need to stay above the triangle. Murrey Math resistance, watch Fibs & Chikou.
Silver, like Gold bounced under the cloud base. Back underr 50wma after spitting Tenkan providing support after reversed. Closing under weekly Kijun which is now resistance. Major support is previous lows
Part D: Forex Markets
John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
- For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.9% to 112.17 (up 17.2% y-t-d)
- For the week on the upside, the British pound increased 2.9%, the Swedish krona 1.9%, the euro 1.2%, Chinese (onshore) renminbi gained 0.17% versus the dollar (down 10.68% y-t-d) and the Mexican peso 0.4%.
- On the downside, the Brazilian real declined 2.8%, the New Zealand dollar 2.5%, the Norwegian krone 2.5%, the Australian dollar 2.0%, the Canadian dollar 1.7%, the South Korean won 1.5%, the Japanese yen 1.0%, the South African rand 0.8%, the Swiss franc 0.5% and the Singapore dollar 0.3%.
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
For the week AUDUSD closed down 0.22%
The Aussie dollar has reversed off an eight-week high, trading over US71¢ with the revitalized hawkish Fed. The Reserve Bank of Australia has hammered on stagnant wage growth as a problem within the Australian economy. In June, the government raised the minimum wage by 5.2%. This week, the Federal government will host a jobs summit and a number of parties have already started media campaigns to push the case for further significant wage increases. Keep an eye on the effect on bonds and the dollar here.
To reflect potential upside, we look at the way down AUDUSD with cloud, Kijun and channel confluence over $0.7250 it reversed lower to 4/8 just over .66. This week we closed under the Tenkan around the channel midpoint. Since completing a 5 at the psychological 80 level it had fallen & corrected under the weekly cloud in emotive fashion
China lockdown fears overhang and AUDUSD forwards support with bonds and RBA raising. Support is the Murrey Math Levels. Resistance the Cloud and Kijun like many commodities. It was the strongest major currency against the USD in July after the Yen correction and has continued in that fashion.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
For the week NZDUSD closed down 0.6%
The Kiwi outran the Aussie lower this week after it mirrored the AUD spitting the lower channel wing to recover through Tenkan after momentum failed and reversed from there. Kijun resistance, which is pivotal is a long way off. We closed back over the old 61.8% break. The RBNZ Policy Announcement has had 7 consecutive rate hikes which has been supporting the forwards..
Canadian Dollar – USDCAD
For the week USDCAD closed up 0.3%
The USDCAD touched 1.3300 a 22-month high. both were expected to pause around 4% but now Fed funds are pricing in 4.40% in March. That’s creating a central bank divergence and cleared the way for a break above 1.32 in USD/CAD. I continue to think the destination is 1.37. while the liquidity zone below 1.3100 could limit upside price action. The high of 1.3223 on July 15 is back in focus. That was the highest level since November 2020. It has recaptured the Tenkan led by the AUD and NZD as it spat the weekly flat-topped triangle. Watch flat Kijun and Tenkan.
Use Fibs for support and resistance. Eyes are on Canadian CPI, the recent decline in energy prices should help alleviate some of the broader pricing pressures. The BoC have been quiet since their 100bp hike in July after it was accompanied with the removal of language about acting in a “forceful” manner, but it did signal rate hikes are to continue with the path being decided by its ongoing assessment of the economy and inflation
Euro – EURUSD
For the week EURUSD closed down 0.75%
The Euro back tested the 1/8 after its first sweep of parity with the sharp selloff fueled reversal off last month’s correction off the Tenkan which was fast and furious to the lowest closing rate since 2017 spitting the outer channel. Euro continues to cascade in what seems like eternal flags in the channel as it spits the Tenkan. We watch if Kijun (pink) reflecting Tenkan (orange) creates any impulse as EURUSD develops in the channel. Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Again, governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility
British Pound – GBPUSD
For the week GBPUSD closed up 0.5%
For the week GBPUSD closed down 0.77%
It is still hectic for Sterling; it is down to a new leader between Rishi Sukan and Liz Truss with Truss the favorite. GBPUSD structure leaves the recent 1.1718 low vulnerable. British pound continues to have difficulty since it’s vicious move down in July that reversed to unchanged by the end of the month.
Cable lost all of the steam from its biggest weekly gain since December 2020 against the dollar to above $1.26 to be smashed to the bottom channel under 1/8 and 1.1800 after retesting the channel and Tenkan. It is still undermined by political risk and recession fears. Above we have channel and Tenkan confluence and flattening Kijun. The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.
Euro Pound – EURGBP
For the week EURGBP closed down 0.27%
EURGBP has been in the doldrums since it back tested 50wma after breaking it early. 50wma and cloud proved too much and EURGBP failed under Kijun support with Tenkan resistance. The EUR/GBP gave up control.
Japanese Yen – USDJPY
For the week USDJPY closed up 0.53%
Last month USDJPY corrected to the weekly Tenkan at 125.88 which held and fueled a swift return higher and has rallied dramatically. Dollar yen accelerated higher moving above the May high of 131.342 which was 20-year highs for the USDJPY. It didn’t let up with Murray Math Weekly levels recalculating higher. USDJPY closed at 135.75 last month, traded to almost 140 where it spat 8/8 and reversed lower, it is trading at 133.32 today. The last two trading days of the month saw the reversal from positive to negative and traded at the low for the month on the last day of the month to close at the weekly Tenkan.
On the way up the price accelerated after the close above the Tenkan over 114 hence the pull for it to correct to the Tenkan which it did to ignite this rally a month ago. The Murrey Math level should remain massive support for dollar-yen. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun as it breaks through the old channel.
Use your USDJPY Murrey grid for now. EURJPY AUDJPY will determine risk on/off. The Tenkan is the natural balance of support ahead.
Emerging Market Currencies
For the week USDMXN closed down 0.67%
The Mexican Peso held its triple bottom to rally back to the Tenkan as rates rose in the US. It continues in the long sideways pattern and consolidates despite outside uncertainty from oil and high rates. The recent high near 19.5 per USD was the highest level since March of 2020 and tracked general strength in Latin American currencies which has since reversed. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.
Turkish Lire USDTRY
For the week USDTRY closed up 0.52%
The Turkish Lira slow decline continues as it rides the median in the corrective channel tier spitting 17 against the dollar. We are still in spitting distance of that all-time low of 18.4 hit in December. The Turkish Central Bank is expected to maintain its Weekly Repo Rate at 14.00% at its upcoming meeting. Turkey’s recent monetary policy decisions have not been based on economic fundamentals, with late 2021 seeing a cumulative 500bps cut in rates in a matter of months to current levels.
The background is the same with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan vowing to cut interest rates despite spiraling inflation. In December last year, the Turkish Central Bank introduced a “Lira deposit scheme” to stem the decline in the currency. The Turkish president said that the country had ‘wasted years’ with the misguided view that prices should be controlled by using higher borrowing costs to suppress consumption. Such policies, he said, benefited only ‘those living a charmed existence and filling their pockets with [the proceeds of] high interest’, including foreign investors.”
To recap the wild 18-10 USDTRY swing last year reversed after falling in 3 waves to explode over the Tenkan, weekly cloud Kijun and 50wma below. The Murrey Math and Fib targets with last year’s Lire all-time lows in a hyper inflating collapse. So far this year the lira is the worst performer in emerging markets, raising concerns that the country could be heading for a repeat of the FX crisis seen at the end of last year.
Bitcoin continues to perform technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. $BTC tested the top of a rising channel after the preceding sharp downturn which was the downside breakout of an earlier bearish flag, after breaking downside a H&S top and then down it went….
Recall Bitcoin exploded higher following it’s correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.
Looking back Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking. The recent high over $68,000 came after the launch over the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcon. From that high we have 2 main alternatives a V of a 1 of a V. For bears it a completive five with impulse right to the 50wma – an incredible 26% fall in a Friday night session. That’s impulse! We watch for an ABC to develop here support is the 50wma and bottom of the weekend cloud.
The Fail of TerraUSD
May 12 – Wall Street Journal (Alexander Osipovich and Caitlin Ostroff): “The cryptocurrency TerraUSD had one job: Maintain its value at $1 per coin. Since it launched in 2020, it had mostly done that, rarely straying more than a fraction of a penny from its intended price. That made it an island of stability, a place where traders and investors could stash their funds in between forays into the otherwise frenzied crypto market. This week TerraUSD became part of the frenzy too, slumping by more than a third on Monday and then tumbling as low as 23 cents on Wednesday. The collapse saddled investors with billions of dollars in losses. It ricocheted back into other cryptocurrencies…”
May 16 – Financial Times (Scott Chipolina): “Traders have yanked $7bn from Tether since the world’s biggest stablecoin last week briefly lost its peg against the US dollar, intensifying concerns about the assets that underpin the global cryptocurrency market. Tether’s market value has fallen by 9% since May 12 to $76bn as tokens have been removed from circulation to meet redemption requests, CryptoCompare data show. The decline came after Tether last Thursday traded at about 95 cents, well below the $1 level it seeks to maintain following the failure of a smaller rival. Observers inside and outside the crypto market have warned that deeper or more lasting volatility in stablecoins, which are designed to maintain a one-to-one peg with the dollar, could drag down the value of thousands of speculative crypto assets that have drawn buyers around the world.”
We have seen what you would expect from a 5 wave impulse peak and ABC correction, a violent correction and completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algorithms control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves. From there prices agitated towards those ATHs as news of a Bitcoin ETF fueled the rally, sound familiar? But this time it wasn’t signaling we are in a 3 high probability but a 5.
On the Risk Radar
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Economic and Geopolitical Watch
Major banks kicking off earnings this quarter, including BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), First Republic Bank (FRC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
Major US Banks Deliver Mixed Results in Q2, 2022
The major money cents banks released earnings with many strong results for Q3. Mainly from trading on the positive side. We see a reversal of loss reserve releases from the pandemic kitty. Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.
- Citigroup Earnings Beat Expectations with Strong Trading in Fixed Income and Net Interest Margin
- BlackRock Profits Fall as Assets Under Management Decrease $1.1 trillion With Lower Investor Confidence in Markets
- PNC Bank Revenue Grew 10% on Strong Loan Growth
- Wells Fargo Earnings Disappoint as Revenue Falls from Slow Down in Mortgage Banking
- Morgan Stanley Investment Banking Hit by Capital Markets Seizing Up
- JPMorgan Sets Aside More for Bad Loans and Suspends Buybacks after Earnings Miss
Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don’t exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.
Banks are also benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose.
Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.
“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”
The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan
Watch Central Banker and Geopolitics speeches, reports and rate moves.
- Next Week’s Risk Dashboard via Scotiabank
- There’s value amid the gloom
- Nonfarm payrolls still resilient?
- Teachers are messing up Canadian jobs
- Canadian wage-price spiral risk
- Brazilian election could impact EM asset class
- RBA: 25 or 50?
- RBNZ’s job isn’t done yet
- Peru’s central bank might not be done hiking after all
- LatAm and Asian inflation
- PMIs: US-ISMs, Canada, Brazil, China, India, Japan
- Germany’s economy
US Events Focus
- Monday: September Final IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI; September ISM Manufacturing Index; and August Construction Spending
- Tuesday: August Factory Orders; August JOLTS – Job Openings
- Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications index; September ADP Employment Change; August Trade Balance; September Final IFS Markit Services PMI; September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index; Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
- Thursday: Initial Jobless and Continuing Jobless Claims; EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- Friday: September Employment Situation Report; August Wholesale Inventories; August Consumer Credit
Global Central Bank Events
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2022.
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Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.