April 10-16, 2022
FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community…
The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?
Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.
- Part A: Stock markets
- Part B: Bonds
- Fed and Banks
- Part C: Commodities
- Energy – Oil and Gas
- Gold and Silver
- Part D: Foreign Exchange
- Geopolitics and Economics
- Economy Week ahead
The market got another dose from the Fed’s Brainard’s that the “Fed to Shrink Balance Sheet at Rapid Pace as Soon as May.” Ten-year Treasury yields jumped another 12 bps this week, a two-week gain of 44 bps. At 2.83%, 10-year yields ended the week the highest since December 2018. Thirty-year Treasuries yields surged 20 bps this week to a three-year high 2.92%. Benchmark MBS yields rose another eight bps this week to 3.98%, with a stunning 191 bps y-t-d spike. Thirty-year mortgage borrowing rates jumped 28 bps this week to reach 5% for the first time since February 2011, having jumped 189 bps so far this year.
We saw most of the major banks report this week, including Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley and four of the largest U.S. lenders Wells Fargo, Citigroup and PNC reporting double-digit drops in first quarter profit. From an 11% decline at Morgan Stanley to a 46% drop at Citigroup.
Energy futures were on another tear, crude’s 8.8% weekly surge pushed 2022 gains to 42%. Gasoline rose 8.0% (up 52% y-t-d), and Natural Gas spiked 16% (up 96% y-t-d) at highs not seen since 2008. We are witnessing the onset of a New Cycle; inflationary dynamics are of the reminiscent of the seventies and eighties.
A fun fact is April is historically the best month for stocks from a seasonality perspective, can the ongoing market volatility and headwinds fall into place again?
Here is a dose of reality. or was it all just money laundering?
“The nonfungible token of Jack Dorsey’s first tweet, which sold for $2.9 million last year to Sina Estavi, failed to garner much in the way of interest when it was recently put up for resale, Coindesk reports. The auction for the NFT closed with only seven offers ranging from just 0.0019 Ether to 0.09 ETH, or about $6 to about $280. A far cry from the $48 million sought by the owner.”April 13 – Bloomberg (Patrick McHale)
Inflation, Oh inflation
U.S. consumer prices rose in March by the most since late 1981. The consumer price index increased 8.5% from a year earlier following a 7.9% annual gain in February. CPI rose 1.2% from a month earlier, the biggest gain since 2005. Increases in the cost of food, electricity and shelter were the largest contributors again to the monthly rise, the Labor Department said, Energy prices increased 32%, namely gasoline (48%) and fuel oil (70.1%) in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food prices jumped 8.8%, the most since May 1981.
The prices that goods and services producers receive rose in March at the fastest pace since records have been kept. The PPI increased 11.2% from a year ago, the most in a data series going back to November 2010. On a monthly basis, the gauge climbed 1.4%, above the 1.1% Dow Jones estimate and also a record.
Food prices are surging, with that expect to see even higher grocery store and energy bills as elevated commodity prices send the fallout from Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis rippling across the world in the coming weeks. With all the redirection of blame at the Fed about inflation one has to understand it is a global phenomenon outside the Fed’s Control. With the war drums louder than ever the supply chain issues are out of control. The Federal Reserve is not in control of global energy and commodities prices.
Another important aspect is the Fed doesn’t Control corporate pricing or wage decisions. Let us be clear geopolitical, climate change developments and what an out of depth, politically motivated administration are outside the Fed’s sphere of influence. There has been over $5.1 Trillion new “money” in 126 weeks, it’s a reasonable conclusion the Fed has lost control of Inflation.
We are now less than a month before the Fed’s next policy meeting. February’s CPI and PPI both rose more than forecast. The question investors have to ask is what he can do to inflation given most of it is supply driven, which he does have the tools for and how quickly can consumers and businesses alike recalibrate from Supply chain issues? Not to through in the energy crisis engulfing the world and the continuing war drums from Biden with Russia and The Ukraine.
Rate markets are sending an exhaustive message to the Fed that it should commence aggressive tightening measures. On the flip side is a sputtering overly extended equities bubbles they must handle with kid’s gloves.
Monetary inflation is running wild. In 2021 Federal Reserve Credit expanded $1.391 TN or 19% to a record $8.742 TN. The Fed’s balance sheet inflated a mindboggling $5.015 TN, or 135%, in the 120 weeks since QE was restarted in September 2019. Federal Reserve Assets have now inflated 10 times since the mortgage finance Bubble collapse.
We need to grasp all the risks to be wary off and received plenty of flak from it. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focused on the crowd psychology aspect over the past few weeks.
We are in an openly hawkish phase since late last year when the New York Fed president John Williams, who is a voting member continued with his hawkish tilt of late. He said we are seeing broader based increases in inflation. Fed Governor Bullard told US Core PCE Is “Quite High” and added that the Fed should take towards a more hawkish policy in the next couple of meetings. Then we had Fed Governor Christopher Waller say the rapid improving job market and deteriorating inflation data have pushed him towards favoring a faster pace of tapering and more rapid removal of accommodation.
“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”– MoneyNeverSleeps
Our weekly reminder for risk, timely given the V shape surge in commodities just a week. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.
We apologize members of the team were away at a conference this weekend, so we have not been able to update the charts and week that was and ahead. The long-term charts hold largely the same. We will update and walk through during the Market Wrap Podcast through the week.
Note charts and Data Below from Last Week’s weekly Bulletin.
PART A – Stock Markets
Highlights – USA
- S&P500 fell 2.1% (down 7.8% y-t-d)
- Dow declined 0.8% (down 5.2%).
- Nasdaq100 slumped 3.0% (down 14.9%)
- S&P 400 Midcaps increased 0.4% (down 7.5%)
- Small cap Russell 2000 gained 0.5% (down 10.7%).
- Utilities slipped 1.3% (up 5.3%).
- Transports rallied 2.6% (down 9.9%).
- Banks sank 2.6% (down 11.7%),
- Broker/Dealers were little changed (down 8.7%).
- Semiconductors dropped 2.9% (down 23.3%).
- Biotechs fell 1.5% (down 5.3%).
- With bullion rising $31, the HUI gold index advanced 2.6% (up 27.3%).
US Markets YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average -4.1% YTD
- S&P 500 -4.7% YTD
- Russell 2000 -7.5% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite -9.4% YTD
Highlights – Europe Stocks
- U.K.’s FTSE equities declined 0.7% (up 3.1% y-t-d).
- France’s CAC40 gained 0.6% (down 7.9%).
- German DAX equities index declined 0.8% (down 10.8%).
- Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index rallied 1.1% (down 0.2%).
- Italy’s FTSE MIB index increased 0.2% (down 9.1%).
Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.
Highlights – Asia Stocks
- Japan’s Nikkei increased 0.4% (down 5.9% y-t-d).
- South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.2% (down 9.5%).
- India’s Sensex equities index fell 1.9% (up 0.1%).
- China’s Shanghai Exchange lost 1.2% (down 11.8%).
Highlights – Australian Stocks
- Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: 7822.2 for a gain of 0.6% for the shortened four-day trading week.
- Qantas +7.1% higher Webjet +7.5%, Qantas best since November 2020
- The ASX rose 6.4% for the month of March, the market’s best performance since November 2020.
- Iron ore -0.6% to $US154.67 per tonne (Tianjin)
Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks
- EM equities were mixed
- Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index jumped 4.2% (up 34.3%).
- Russia’s MICEX equities index sank 6.5% (down 36.0%).
Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week
Technical Analysis of key markets via KnovaWave
Daily: SPX500 performed a perfect double bottom this week’s and by week’s end had completed a perfect measured 3 wave move on the 240 Murrey Math highlighted in the podcast. We bounced through the downward channel pulled by the twist ‘helium contusion’ on the completive. Recall the fuel from the top of the channel after completing 3 waves off ATH, accelerated after broke the Tenkan through to the 4600 OI where it reversed with impulse back to Tenkan Bulls this a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is 1-2 of (i) completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun and watch for ABC. From no fear to panic is the driving element.
Recall SPX completed 5 waves up where it reversed with impulse with energy fueled from the power impulse down from +1/8 ATH spit of a spit fail. On the way down (just like up) it accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then through the median after tapping 8/8.
The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the Tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in
The S&P closed right on the weekly Kijun after blasting through the downtrend on quad witching. We corrected the reversal of the breakup at Tenkan from there we had had a powerful rally to ATH. Each new high evolved after testing Tenkan key support, we are now getting a retest as resistance, making it support on this move. We reiterate this needs to be recovered for a resumption of the uptrend. We broke the Tenkan this week and watch for Kijun reaction. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.
Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan. To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.” Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances
A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets
The Dow tested its weekly up channel after bouncing back to test the Tenkan and Kijun we watch for the reaction here. Resistance is the channel, support the cloud and previous breakups.
Nasdaq spat the weekly cloud to the MM 6/8 and Tenkan confluence where it closed witht he cloud top and Kijun above. Immediate resistance is this confluence. Recall ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. From there we sold off right to Tenkan (as did SPX) and here we are. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue. Support Channel and cloud.
The small cap Russell RUT had been developing a large flag which it did a false break to fuel the selling from there we replicated to the down (Adam’s theory).
Russell 2000 low-price tested the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 2020 low before bouncing higher.
Unlike SPX we could not get through Tenkan and Kijun which rejected the bounce highlighting its weakness. However, like the NASDAQ we broke above the tenkan. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Closed right in the middle of the cloud. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. 8/8 Support now and then cloud base
Semiconductors SMH clean with reaction from above reverted with the retest & break of the triple top patterning in a pennant. Pull from Chip Shortage players $ON $TSM $NVDA $ASML $AMD $QCOM $AVGO $TXN $INTC $AMAT $LRCX $XLNX saw Semiconductors rise 2.9% (up 40.0% YTD)
In the bull swing following the announcement of NVDA 4/1 split some levels off the energy break NVidia didn’t look back with many gaps below. We saw another power move off the $200 retest (old $800) & earnings off $300 which failed on the retesting. It is a clear leader of #SOX #SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes. Held the base channel ahead of earnings this week.
On the way up Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level on the way down these levels became key energy levels. Support held at the previous break near 50wma to close over Tenkan and Kijun as it rebalanced Chikou. Resistance now Fibs and Murrey Math levels. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.
Amazon double top that filled the gap in 3 waves then reversed through 50wma then gained impulse. We got a KOD to accelerate through cloud to close the week at a 3/8 spit. Earnings ahead.
The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, is down over 26% so far this year.
The ARKK ETF trading clinically, tested triangle breakdown and failed off 50 WMA. Trying support at 61.8% of whole move. Clear crowd behavior, we saw ATH in NASDAQ & SPX, yet this couldn’t raise a bid – very telling negative divergence. $ARKK rebalanced Chikou at week’s end
US Stocks Watch
Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.
Earnings Highlights This Week:
TICKER COMPANY EPS FORECAST
Tuesday includes Acuity Brands, Greenbrier Companies
Wednesday includes Levi Strauss
Thursday includes Constellation Brands, Conagra Brand
“U.S. companies are rushing to cash in on soaring stock prices. It isn’t just the white-hot market for initial public offerings. Companies are returning to the public markets to issue shares and raise cash from investors at the same time that existing shareholders are tapping the public market to unload their stockholdings at a record clip. Companies including Zoom Video Communications Inc. and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. have sold billions of dollars of shares this year… There have been 556 follow-on offerings, or stock sales by companies or existing shareholders, among U.S. companies this year, the most since 1996, according to Dealogic… They have raised a total of $133 billion. Behind the boom in share issuance? An ascendant stock market.” August 25 – Wall Street Journal (Gunjan Banerji):
US IPO Week Ahead:
Part B: Bond Markets
Inflation with Henry Kaufman
Kaufman is the legendary chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers is someone who knows Inflation. Henry Kaufman in an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker Jan 14, 2022:
“I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”
“The longer the Fed takes to tackle a high rate of inflation, the more inflationary psychology is embedded in the private sector — and the more it will have to shock the system.”
“‘It’s dangerous to use the word transitory,’ Kaufman said. ‘The minute you say transitory, it means you’re willing to tolerate some inflation.’ That, he said, undermines the Fed’s role of maintaining economic and financial stability to achieve ‘reasonable non-inflationary growth.’”
Highlights – Treasuries
Investment-grade bond funds saw outflows of $4.494 billion, and junk bond funds posted negative flows of $4.030 billion (from Lipper).
The bond market is doing the Fed’s work for them, the fed funds futures market increased its expectations for a 50-bps rate hike in May. The post-data selling was most pronounced in the 5-yr note and shorter tenors while 10s and 30s tried to climb off their session lows. The rebound eventually pressured the 30-yr yield below the 2-yr yield, resulting in the first inversion of the 2s30s spread since 2007. The expectations for aggressive rate hikes later this year incites concerns about a negative impact to growth down the line. The inversion was clear with 2-yr at 2.43% (+14 bps for the week). 10-yr 2.38% -11 bps for the week and 30-yr 2.42% -18 bps for the week. After beginning the year at 78 bps, the 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield spread ended the week at negative eight bps
- 2-yr: +15 bps to 2.43% (+14 bps for the week)
- 3-yr: +16 bps to 2.62% (+10 bps for the week)
- 5-yr: +13 bps to 2.55% (-2 bps for the week)
- 10-yr: +5 bps to 2.38% (-11 bps for the week)
- 30-yr: -2 bps to 2.42% (-18 bps for the week)
Rates on the 10-year note traded over 1.900% on Friday, for the first time since July 2019. Yields broke out of the small symmetrical triangle highlighted the past weeks, after forming a much larger symmetrical triangle.
All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported record corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity, funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. The combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.
Highlights – Mortgage Market
Unprecedented cash payments by the U.S. government to households, changing consumer preferences and lowest mortgage rates in history have fueled a pandemic boom in housing, the fastest pace of increase on record in data from 1988 and prices surpassing the peak from the last property boom in 2005. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index has marked the fastest pace of increase on record in data from 1988.
- Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged 28 bps to 5.00%, back to 5% for the first time since February 2011 (up 196bps y-o-y).
- Fifteen-year rates jumped 26 bps to a more than three-year high 1.17% (up 182bps).
- Five-year hybrid ARM rates gained 13 bps to 3.69% (up 89bps).
- Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up 18 bps to a decade-high 5.01% (up 195bps).
Highlights – Federal Reserve
- Federal Reserve Credit last week increased $6.7bn to $8.906 TN. Over the past 135 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $5.180 TN, or 139%.
- Fed Credit inflated $6.095 Trillion, or 217%, over the past 492 weeks.
- Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week rose $2.1bn to $3.461 TN.
- “Custody holdings” were down $93.0bn, or 2.6%, y-o-y.
- Total money market fund assets dropped $29.9bn to $4.530 TN. Total money funds increased $78bn y-o-y, or 1.7%.
- Total Commercial Paper added $3.5bn to $1.070 TN. CP was down $137bn, or 11.4%, over the past year.
Highlights – European Bonds
- Greek 10-year yields added two bps to 2.90% (up 159bps y-t-d).
- Ten-year Portuguese yields surged 20 bps to 1.84% (up 137bps).
- Italian 10-year yields rose nine bps to 2.48% (up 131bps).
- Spain’s 10-year yields gained eight bps to 1.78% (up 122bps).
- German bund yields jumped 14 bps to 0.84% (up 102bps).
- French yields increased seven bps to 1.33% (up 114bps).
- The French to German 10-year bond spread narrowed seven to 49 bps. U.K. 10-year gilt yields rose 14 bps to 1.89% (up 92bps).
Highlights – Asian Bonds
- Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields added a basis point to 0.24% (up 17bps y-t-d)
Part C: Commodities
- Bloomberg Commodities Index jumped 4.8% (up 33.5% y-t-d).
- Spot Gold rose 1.6% to $1,978 (up 8.1%).
- Silver gained 3.1% to $25.55 (up 9.6%).
- WTI crude surged $8.69 to $106.95 (up 42%).
- Gasoline jumped 8.0% (up 52%)
- Natural Gas surged 16.3% (up 96%).
- Copper added 0.3% (up 6%).
- Wheat jumped 4.4% (up 43%)
- Corn rose 3.0% (up 32%).
- Bitcoin dropped $1,915, or 4.5%, this week to $40,525 (down 12.6%).
Risk markets continue to respond to the war in Ukraine and the supply crisis from the Coronavirus outbreak and lockdowns.
BDI Freight Index
- The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index had a third consecutive weekly decline on Friday, pulled down by falling rates for panamax and supramax vessels. The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, fell by one point to 2,357 points, its lowest since March 8. The index fell 7.4% over the week.
- The capesize index gained 104 points, or 5.9%, to 1,864 but was down 1.2% for the week.
- Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, increased $867 to $15,460.
- The panamax index dipped 68 points, or 2.2%, to 3,073 points for its lowest level since March 21, down almost 10% on the week.
- Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, lost $613 to $27,660.
- The supramax index dropped 53 points to 2,755 points, down 8.8% for the week.
We analyze Alcoa as a surrogate to Aluminum given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.
We have seen $AA retest the previous high after the +3 Spit as the Chikou rebalanced. We have the Gap below at +1/8 confluence. We move to 240 for this pennant resolution.
Copper rebounded sharply off the 50wma but again has failed on the cloud spit and channel break. The flattening Weekly Tenkan and Kijun acted as a magnet to close right there. #HG power spits have quickly rebalanced back into the wide channel. Copper had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities.
It has been an ominous quarter for the global food supply and its pricing. Wheat, Corn and Soybeans are all significantly higher.
We analyze the WEAT ETF as a surrogate to Wheat given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.
Wheat futures sank 10.7% (still up 27.7% YTD) this past week. WEAT still resides in the large pennant since it spat 8/8, and the minimum target. We have completed a measured 4/8 correction off highs meaning key support as that base, the 50dma and the pennant confluence.
Corn fell 2.5% this week (up 24% YTD) after is has been consolidating and retesting the April 21 highs after it accelerated higher after breaking the cloud. This week’s low is key for ABC measurement 2/8 measured move.
Soybeans for the first time in the past month futures have drifted below the $16/bushel benchmark. Futures spat the Weekly +4/8 over $17.50/bushel. Prices accelerated lower finding no bids falling under tenkan and closing near weekly lows. The flattening Kijun the magnet just under the 8/8. The weekly cloud and 50wma mingle around the $146/bushel benchmark.
US Crude Oil (WTI)
Another big week for oil, April WTI crude oil (CLJ22) futures settled at $115.68 per barrel. That’s the highest close since September 2008. The high price$115.94, low price today $107.29. For the week, the price is up over 25%. The power was this move was built after hitting our initial 8/8 target completing a iii of (5) or (iii) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a sharp ABC higher and MM recalculation higher. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs.
Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above.
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.
WTI crude Oil futures continued higher with aggression after corrected the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Support is the median and Tenkan/Kijun. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
US Natural Gas has continued higher after it completed 3 waves correcting the daily 8/8 spit correction to -2/8. Two clear alternatives, we are correcting the highs 5 or that was a 3 and we go higher. We closed over the 2 most recent highs and +1/8 right. Support is Tenkan, Kijun below.
The Cloud top broke Kijun and Tenkan with a kiss of life. Meaning that 3 was either an a i or iv– impulse in a nutshell. Prior to this move the adjunct failure of the 50dma and Tenkan opened up the retest of 3.80-3.60 last time which fueled this week’s move higher. From there we fell sharply to the Kijun, A completion of 4 (bear) or (i) of 5 (bull) which gave this move sustenance
Notice the fractals of the move after completing the C of 4 bullish scenario played out the consolidation phase since it completed its IV (Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. For the bulls all this needs to hold for the highs to be a (iii) looking at possibilities we have the 161.8% at 7.026 if we get ‘silly’ 50dma support.
Like the larger wave on the way up it accelerated through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and new highs. We successfully tested that break in a pennant ABC. Previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and 8/8 and new highs underscore the structure that fed the move and is key longer term.
Notably no sharp reversal, like the previous impulsive spikes. We saw a clean break of the Kijun to close back over near highs. This move was fueled by a fractal of the classic double top playing out after a spit of the weekly Kijun was sent back off Tenkan only to reverse all the way to spit the 50wma for the energy needed. Resistance is Previous highs and Murrey Grid.
The Natural gas rebalanced after continued to fail and retrace with impulse after reaching its major target, the double top potential from 2014 which equated nicely to over 8/8 Weekly and showed true impulse off that to rebalance Chikou. It’s now a question of degree, 3 or 5? Impulse just shy of the 8/8 and Tenkan confluence. A question of continuation with the 50wma as resistance and cloud as support.
Recall the impulse wave powered from the spit of 50wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan. This was energized with a series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is Fib/Murrey confluence, support Tenkan, Kijun – as always count your ABC’s
Key Energy Reports
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Outlook with A Desperate United States Turning to Iran with Prices Vertical
- Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Outlook with Threats of Russian Ukraine Conflict Hitting Global Supply
- ExxonMobil Delivers Big Earnings, Continues to Pay Down Debt as Oil and Gas Prices Surge
- The Energy Crisis and Volatility See Natural Gas and VIX the Best Performing Futures in January
- Chevron Earnings Miss on Weaker Production Outweighing Gains from Soaring Oil and Natural Gas Prices
- Natural Gas Squeezes in Largest One Day Percentage Move on Record as Traders Caught Short Molecules
- Australian Coking Coal Record High with Strong Demand in Korea and Japan
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report January 2022
- Lower US Producer Price Inflation Dependent on Oil Prices
- Fitch Outlook For North American Oil & Gas is Neutral in 2022
- Spot Gold rose 1.6% to $1,978 (up 8.1%).
- Silver gained 3.1% to $25.55 (up 9.6%).
Gold futures settled $8.00 Friday lower (-0.4%) to $1,954.20/oz, up more than +1% on the week. The yellow metal is consolidating after it accelerated after breaking the weekly triangle higher. Gold has bounced after support at it’s uptrend line since the August 2021 bottom and Kijun. It garnered strength after rebalancing after manic rise to +5/8 weekly rebalance of Chikou in 5 waves. To be bullish we need to stay above the triangle. Murrey Math resistance, watch Fibs & Chikou.
Silver, like Gold bounced under the cloud base. Back underr 50wma after spitting Tenkan providing support after reversed. Closing under weekly Kijun which is now resistance. Major support is previous lows
Part D: Forex Markets
John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.7% to 100.50 (up 5.0% y-t-d)
- For the week on the upside, the British pound 0.3%
- On the downside, the Japanese yen declined 1.7%, the Swiss franc 0.9%, the Australian dollar 0.8%, the euro 0.6%, the Canadian dollar 0.3%
- For the week on the upside, Singapore dollar increased 0.5%, the Mexican peso 0.4%, and the South African rand 0.1%.
- On the downside, the Norwegian krone 1.3%, the Swedish krone 1.3%, the New Zealand dollar 1.2%, the South Korean won 0.4%, the Brazilian real 0.1%, Chinese renminbi slipped 0.10% versus the dollar (down 0.24% y-t-d).
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar is still correcting since completing a 5 at the pysch 80 level to fall under the weekly cloud in emotive fashion. The Australian dollar fell to test of the August lows of 0.7106 with Omicron fears. Should that double bottom go support ia the Murrey Math Levels. Resistance the Cloud, Tenkan and Kijun like many commodities.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The Kiwi mirrored the AUD in its wave (iii) spit and has corrected at the cloud much of the FOMO muster wave and retested the 50% Fib & 4/8 confluence. Kijun and Tenkan Resistance, which is pivotal. Support previous break spits.
Canadian Dollar – USDCAD
The Loonie is holding the Tenkan after a 3 year high in June and corrected that in 3 waves led by the AUD and NZD. #oil price impacting direction. Watch flat Kijun and Tenkan at -1/8. Use Fibs for support and resistance.
Euro – EURUSD
Euro continues to correct in what seems like eternal flags in the channel. We watch if Kijun (pink) testing Tenkan (orange) creates any impulse as #EURUSD consolidates in the cloud. Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility.
British Pound – GBPUSD
British pound classic retest of daily cloud break with magnet pull of cloud twist after ABC correction – will need Tenkan to break through Kijun for more strength. The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.
Euro Pound – EURGBP
Back testing Tenkan in a C or 3 after inconclusive X – symbolic of BREXIT? Kijun, 50wma and clouds resistance.
Japanese Yen – USDJPY
USDJPY broke above i after weakness with Treasury yields to rush to +2/8 and channel convergence at 115.00. With that resistance the weekly chart is showing a bearish engulfing bar taking in over a month of price to close right above the Tankan should that go a re-test of 112 is alive The 108.00 level should remain massive support for dollar-yen. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun as it breaks through the old channel. Use your USDJPY Murrey 4/8 8/8 grid for now. EURJPY AUDJPY will determine risk on/off
Mexican Peso USDMXN
The Peso continues in the long triangle and consolidated despite outside uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.
Turkish Lire USDTRY
The Turkish Lira reversed after falling in 3 waves to explode over the Tenkan with the weekly cloud Kijun and 50wma below to see Turkish lira close the week at a record low 11.29 TRY/USD. The Murrey Math and Fib targets offer targets with the Lire at all time lows resistance in a hyper inflating collapse
Bitcoin performing technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. $BTC is testing the top of a rising channel after the preceding sharp downturn which was the downside breakout of an earlier bearish flag, after breaking downside a H&S top.
Recall Bitcoin exploded higher following it’s correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.
Looking back Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking. The recent high over $68,000 came after the launch over the Bitcoin ETF, Bitco. From that high we have 2 main alternatives a V of a 1 of a V. For bears it a completive five with impulse right to the 50wma – an incredible 26% fall in a Friday night session. That’s impulse! We watch for an ABC to develop here support is the 50wma and bottom of the weekend cloud.
We have seen what you would expect from a 5 wave impulse peak and ABC correction, a violent correction and completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algorithms control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves. From there prices agitated towards those ATHs as news of a Bitcoin ETF fueled the rally, sound familiar? But this time it wasn’t signaling we are in a 3 high probability but a 5.
On the Risk Radar
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Economic and Geopolitical Watch
Major banks kicking off earnings this quarter, including BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), First Republic Bank (FRC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
Major US Banks Deliver Stoic Results in Q3, 2021
The major money cents banks released earnings with many record results for Q3. Mainly from trading and loss reserve releases from the pandemic kitty. Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.
- Goldman Sachs Advice on Mergers and Acquisitions Brought in a Record $1.65 billion Last Quarter
- Wells Fargo Earnings Suffer From Less Interest Income on Lower Loans
- JPMorgan Earnings Boosted By Trading and Release of Loan Loss Reserves
- Blackrock Earnings Beat Expectations With Record $ 9.5 Trillion Assets and ETFs Under Management
- PNC Bank Revenue Rises, Expects $900 million in Cost Savings From BBVA
- Citigroup Earnings Rise on Equity Trading and Loss Reserve Release
- Bank of America Earnings Lift With Higher Long Term Interest Rates And Steady Costs
- Morgan Stanley Acquisitions of E-Trade and Eaton Vance Boosted Wealth and Asset Management
Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don’t exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.
Potentially the top six banks can buy back $11 billion in the first-quarter. Goldman Sachs shares after the announcement led the rally with a 7.7% increase. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan jumped 6.4% and 4.9% at intraday highs. Within minutes of the announcement all three banks have announced plans to resume buybacks in the new year.
Banks are also benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose. otal Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $737 billion during Q3 2020 to a record $60.113 trillion.
Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.
“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”
The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan
Watch Central Banker and Geopolitics Watch speeches, reports and rate moves.
- China markets closed in observance of Ching Ming Festival.
- 5:05: UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
- Hong Kong and China markets closed in observance of Ching Ming Festival.
- 00:30: Australia – RBA Interest Rate Decision: forecast to remain steady at 0.10%.
- 4:30: UK – Services PMI: seen to remain flat at 61.0.
- 10:00: US – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: predicted to edge up to 58.0 from 56.5.
- 4:30: UK – Construction PMI: anticipated to ease to 57.3 from 59.1.
- 10:00: Canada – Ivey PMI: previously printed at 60.6.
- 10:30: US – EIA Crude Oil Inventories: last week’s release showed a drawdown of -3.449M
- 14:00: US – FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 7:30: Eurozone – ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
- 8:30: US – Initial Jobless Claims: expected to retreat to 200K from 202K.
- 10:30: US – EIA Natural Gas Crude Oil Inventories
- 8:30: Canada – Employment Change: likely plummeted to 80.0K from 336.6K.
Tuesday, April 5 ***NEW YORK – Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams participates in “Health and the Economy” moderated discussion hosted by the New York Times, covering the intersection of health and economics, national efforts to promote a healthy workforce, and lessons learned during the pandemic, 1400 EDT/1800 GMT.
Wednesday, April 6 FOMC meeting minutes: 2022 1400 EDT/1800 GMT (for meeting of March 15-16)
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2022.
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Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.