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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.
Memes, Apple and Inflation
The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?
Manic reporting and activity was at the forefront with another AMC and meme stock frenzy. AMC gained another 83% for the week, even after closing well off the highs at the end of the week. Oil hit the highest prices since 2019 and Henry Hub natural gas futures were back over $3.00 btu. Energy stocks as a result was the top performer among major sectors in the past week.
The US in May added 559K non-farm payrolls jobs less than forecasted 674k new jobs, April prev 266k was rrevised to 278k. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 6.1%. US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) were higher by 0.5% (est 0.2%; prevR 0.7%; prev 0.7%)
Among the biggest winners are so-called value stocks on expectations of spending from Washington on bridges, roads, and tunnels with the industrials and materials sectors, both up around 20% this year, ahead of the 12.5% gain for the S&P 500. Shares of United States Steel are up nearly 200% in 2021, fellow steel producer Nucor stock has gained around 104%. Investors will watch whether this rally in shares of companies that would benefit from President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.7 trillion infrastructure plan has more room to run. Many stovcks are vulnerable to a selloff if a large spending bill in Washington fails to materialize.
May’s consumer price index is scheduled to be reported Thursday, and it could be hot after it surged in April. Recall the Fed’sfavorite inflation measure core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.1% ahead of consensus 2.9%,the most since 2018 and up from last month’s +1.8% year-over-year. The PCE Price Index jumped 0.7% m/m, over 0.6% expected, up from.4% prior.
Global inflation reports remind us inflation is front and center. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at their April meeting, kept QE infinity open with TALF for open-ended Treasuries, MBS and corporate bonds in amounts needed. The gameplan per Fed Chairman Powell is likely to be on point for Fed speakers, a reminder from a few week’s back:
“So it seems unlikely, frankly, that we would see inflation moving up in a persistent way that would actually move inflation expectations up while there was still significant slack in the labor market. I won’t say that it’s impossible, but it seems unlikely… So that’s not to say inflation won’t—might not move up, but for inflation to move up in a persistent way that really starts to move inflation expectations up, that would take some time and you would think it would be quite likely that we’d be in very strong labor markets for that to be happening.”
There is the prospect of an overheating U.S. economy, but remember we are coming off a low base and the lockdown has decimated many sectors of the economy and people’s lives. The relevaton from the speed of technology adapting and disrupting to a new world with the lockdown is transformative. The shift has enabled and transformed the traditional economy that we measure future outcomes off.
We still need to add almost 20 million jobs in the US alone to get back to par. Europe is in worse shape, so overheating at this point isnt a concern for most policymakers. The unparalleled government monetary inflation has inflated many price levels and distorted asset markets BUT that was intended as to increase confidence in the ‘guts’ of the economy, homeowners and 401k holders. This point is missed by the uber bear community. From here is the big question. The RBA stability report gives us an insight into central banker thinking, they concluded Australian banks are in strong financial position coming out of pandemic and have abundant liquidity and funding,
The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off tis continuos dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.
After the monthly and weekly employment data the market will be going though whether the recent stimulus rounds are working with in the background of the Federal Reserve Continuing to downplay inflation risk.. We continued to see more rotation from tech to value stock, but a slower pace.
Of note during the Arctic Blast with the EV mania and the Biden Admin Green deal push we noted the spike in spot Texas electricity prices pushing the cost of electricity not on fixed plans to unheard of levels. Bloomberg reported on recharging a Tesla from about $18 to $900. Yes the price spike was fleeting but it should remind the sane amongst us the broader issue of the disconnect between the push toward electrification and our massively inadequate energy infrastructure. This is the area that needs investment, not just for our glorious EV but for all energy and possible disasters like we just saw.
Comments from Yellen and others on the same page suggest that low rates conveniently push potential debt instability far out into the future. The Fed is poised to expand its balance sheet, by adding liquidity to the tune of $1.5 TN this year with no regard for rampant asset price inflation and bubbles. Now the new administration has control of the blank checkbook and is determined to us it with no long-term thinking or planning; everything is short-term focused. Washington is gambling with our nation’s future, from kicking cans down the road to rolling drums down a hill.
- Part A: Stockmarkets
- Part B: Bonds
- Fed and Banks
- Part C: Commodities
- Energy – Oil and Gas
- Gold and Silver
- Part D: Foreign Exchange
- Geopolitics and Economics
- Economy Week ahead
PART A – Stock Markets
Highlights – USA
- S&P500 added 0.6% (up 12.6% y-t-d)
- Dow increased 0.7% (up 13.6%).
- Nasdaq100 advanced 0.6% (up 6.8%).
- S&P 400 Midcaps were unchanged (up 18.3%),
- Russell 2000 gained 0.8% (up 15.8%).
- Utilities were little changed (up 3.1%).
- Banks added 0.3% (up 36.9%), and the Broker/Dealers gained 1.2% (up 26.5%).
- Transports dropped 1.8% (up 23.7%).
- Semiconductors rose 0.9% (up 15.0%).
- Biotechs slipped 0.3% (down 3.2%).
- With bullion down $12, the HUI gold index fell 1.8% (up 4.5%).
Highlights – Europe Stocks
- U.K.’s FTSE equities index increased 0.7% (up 9.4% y-t-d).
- France’s CAC40 added 0.5% (up 17.4%).
- German DAX equities index jumped 1.1% (up 14.4%).
- Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index fell 1.5% (up 12.6%).
- Italy’s FTSE MIB index gained 1.6% (up 15.0%).
Highlights – Asia Stocks
- Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index declined 0.7% (up 5.5% y-t-d).
- South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 1.6% (up 12.8%).
- India’s Sensex equities index rose 1.3% (up 9.1%).
- China’s Shanghai Exchange slipped 0.2% (up 3.4%).
- Australia’s ASX200 rose 1.6% for the week to close at a new record high 7295.4 on Friday, its third straight weekly gain. Major banks, CSL, Telstra, and Woolworths helped the ASX 200 touch 7300 for the first time in history in its third straight session of gains. The ASX 200 has added about $46 billion since Tuesday’s close.
Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks
- EM equities were mostly higher
- Brazil’s Bovespa index surged 3.6% (up 9.3%) and Mexico’s Bolsa gained 1.0% (up 14.6%).
- South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 1.6% (up 12.8%). India’s Sensex equities index rose 1.3% (up 9.1%). China’s Shanghai Exchange slipped 0.2% (up 3.4%)
- Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index increased 0.8% (down 3.0%).
- Russia’s MICEX equities index jumped 2.1% (up 15.8%).
From rebalance as a natural reversion after the bull mania we have surged with another speculative rush. This after Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. IS that enough to rebalnce and go higher? The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998, soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.
Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.
Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week
S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis via @KnovaWave
SPX rallied again to new all time highs, after testing and spitting tenkan san & 8/8 Murrey Math at the Daily Cloud & with a positive Chikou retest. We have a number of alternatives of degree (iii) or (iv) of 5, Keep it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun as Chikou rebalances.
The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.
Weekly SPX spat the break channel it had been tracing since the break of v of (III) or (V). Key was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan. To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.” Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances
A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets.
Watching Semiconductors cleanly with Murrey Math levels and Tenkan – keys are previous high at +1/8 and Chikou rebalance patterning. Weekly +2/8 around 250 key number recognition factor also. Below Kijun spat to provide support as the reaction from above continued.
Following the announcement of NVDA 4/1 split some levels off the energy break. This week we hit the 50% at $709 fueled by calls being cheap, we got earnings and $TSLA split memories and boom! The AMC meme move also fueled speculatiojn, at least NVDA has more substance than Doge!
Amazon high was MM +3/8 and from there has built a large weekly flag which it closed under after breaking the Tenkan and Kijun, watch if Kijun closes through Tenkan for a bigger move. From there we have seen a series of work around that up and down. More coiling in affect.
US Stocks Watch
Earnings Week Ahead
This three-month period is the first to be compared to year earlier profits that were affected by the pandemic. For Q1 results in from more than half of the S&P 500 companies, earnings are now expected to have risen 46% from the previous year, compared with forecasts of 24% growth at the start of the month, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. About 87% of reports have come in ahead of analysts’ estimates for earnings per share, putting the quarter on track to have the highest beat rate on record going back to 1994, when Refinitiv began tracking the data. First-quarter corporate earnings likely benefited from the firming economic backdrop. With the US stock markets at record highs the downside to increasing profit expectations is the potential for some disappointments and that could cause adverse or stalled market to potentially.
Investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.
Last week we heard from
This week we hear from:
- Monday starts us off with
- Tuesday with earnings from
- Wednesday Earnings Include
- Thursday Earnings Include
- Friday Earnings include
Vail Resorts, Marvell Tech, Stitch Fix, Coupa Software
Thor Industries, Casey’s General Stores, Navistar
Campbell Soup, GameStop, Brown-Forman, United Natural Foods, RH, Bradley
Chewy, Dave & Buster’s, Signet Jewelers, John Wiley
These are the highlighted earnings for the US this week. Please check daily schedules for more reports.
IPO Week Ahead
Nine IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.9 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.
Payments platform Marqeta (MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company’s platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.
Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun (BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun’s core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.
Mental health services provider LifeStance Health (LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation’s largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.
Israel’s monday.com (MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.
BPO vendor TaskUs (TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.
Data-driven marketing platform Zeta Global (ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.
Preclinical cancer biotech Janux Therapeutics (JANX) plans to raise $152 million at a $652 million market cap. Janux is developing next-generation therapeutics based on its proprietary Tumor Activated T Cell Engager platform technology to better treat patients suffering from cancer. The company expects to submit at least two INDs by the end of 2022, initially seeking regulatory approval for its candidates as later lines of therapy.
Online luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs (DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.
Chinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education (ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.
IPO data via Renaissance Capital
Part B : Bond Markets
Highlights – Treasuries
Why the angst in the bond market?
The FOMC presented new economic projections including a forecast of 6.5% for gross domestic product this year with PCE inflation going to 2.4% this year, but falling to 2% next year. Powell reiterated that the Fed sees only a temporary pickup in inflation this year because of the base effects against last year’s numbers when prices fell. The Fed will target an average range of inflation around 2%, meaning it could exceed that threshold for some time which is a change to the Fed’s ground rules. The majority of Fed officials did not see any interest rate hikes through 2023. With the passing of the $1.9 trillion splurge a FOMO surge lifted stocks last week but now all eyes on yields dampened the enthusiasm.
What concerns bond holders and impacts stocks over the past weeks is the Fed appears to be too Blaise about inflation. This view got added weight when crude oil hit the highest prices since 2019 after OPEC decided to stay pat on production for April. But since then Crude has fallen over 12% in just a week from those highs. Hence why Powell has said “We’re going to wait to see signs of actual inflation or the appearance of other risks that could threaten the achievement of our goals. And we’ve seen that the economy can sustain exceptionally low levels of unemployment without inflation.”
There is a view that Powell also refuses to be dictated to and set the bond bullies up for failure. The V reversal this month suggests that. Air needs to come out of the market, particularly Tech, this is best illustrated by the ARK Funds and Semi-Conductor SMH ET’s (see below). From here we have another massive $1.9 Trillion stimulus. Is that enough to keep asset prices elevated, hard to fight the Fed and that kind of cash floating around. Watch the argument from analysts that higher yields mean the economy is growing, stocks are value versus hyperinflation is on its way.
Raise your eyes and look at the stopped car in front of you you may want to hit the brakes.The pandemic is not close to our greatest worry, nor is energy it seems. The runaway credit bubble in the era of delusion and entitlement has multiple unintended consequences or are they intended? The stockmarket has lost rationality the danger is should the bubble pop the consequences of a historic debt crisis in a deeply divided nation and unprepared social and geopolitical backdrops could be earth shattering as the Fed disregards asset inflation and bubble dynamics.
- Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $1.717 billion, while junk bond funds posted outflows of $385 million (from Lipper).
In the US last month, spending of $972 billion was up from the year ago $356 billion, while receipts increased to $268 billion from $237 billion. Washington borrowed 70 cents of every dollar it spent last month. About 50% of the $3.41 TN first-half expenditures were debt-financed. Worse yet, our federal government is on track for back-to-back years of $3.0 TN plus annual deficits.
- Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at negative 0.0125%.
- Two-year government yields added less than a basis point to 0.15% (up 3bps y-t-d).
- Five-year T-note yields declined two bps to 0.78% (up 42bps).
- Ten-year Treasury yields fell four bps to 1.56% (up 64bps).
- Long bond yields dropped five bps to 2.23% (up 59bps).
- Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields added a basis point to 1.83% (up 49bps).
All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported a record $1.4 trillion of corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity, funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. THe combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.
Highlights – Mortgage Market
U.S. home prices have been fueled by the lowest mortgage rates in history and relocation demand have risen rose at the fastest pace on record, surpassing the peak from the last property boom in 2005. The median price of a single-family home climbed 14.9% to $315,000 in the fourth quarter, the biggest surge in data going back to 1990. The Northeast led the way with a 21% gain.”
- Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose five bps to 2.99% (down 19bps y-o-y).
- Fifteen-year rates were unchanged at 2.27% (down 35bps).
- Five-year hybrid ARM rates gained five bps to 2.64% (down 46bps).
- Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up two bps to 3.12% (down 41bps).
Highlights – Federal Reserve
- Federal Reserve Credit last week dipped $9.3bn to $7.880 TN. Over the past 90 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $4.153 TN, or 111%. Fed Credit inflated $5.069 Trillion, or 180%, over the past 447 weeks.
- Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week added $0.9bn to $3.536 TN.
- “Custody holdings” were up $146bn, or 4.3%, y-o-y.
- Total money market fund assets added $3bn to $4.612 TN. Total money funds declined $139bn y-o-y, or 2.9%.
- Total Commercial Paper declined $3.5bn to $1.186 TN. CP was up $148bn, or 14.3%, year-over-year.
We do know we have massive speculation pockets, viz a viz the Meme or GameStop, Weed stocks and cryptocurrency spectacles in just the matter of weeks. The Fed is today throwing additional fuel on historic speculative manias.
- The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure.
Highlights – European Bonds
- Greek 10-year yields slipped a basis point to 0.81% (up 19bps y-t-d).
- Ten-year Portuguese yields declined two bps to 0.45% (up 42bps).
- Italian 10-year yields fell four bps to 0.87% (up 33bps).
- Spain’s 10-year yields dipped two bps to 0.45% (up 41bps).
- German bund yields declined three bps to negative 0.21% (up 36bps).
- French yields fell two bps to 0.15% (up 49bps).
- French to German 10-year bond spread widened one to 36 bps.
- U.K. 10-year gilt yields slipped a basis point to 0.79% (up 59bps).
Highlights – Asian Bonds
- Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields were about unchanged at 0.08% (up 7bps y-t-d).
Part C: Commodities
- The Bloomberg Commodities Index gained 2.0% (up 21.3% y-t-d). WTI crude surged $3.30 to $69.62 (up 44%). Gasoline rose 3.3% (up 57%), and Natural Gas jumped 3.7% (up 22%). Copper fell 3.2% (up 29%). Wheat rallied 3.7% (up 7%). Corn surged 4.0% (up 41%). Bitcoin recovered $2,185, or 6.2%, this week to $37,170 (up 28%).
- Risk markets continue to respond to a Conronvirus outbreak and failed negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.
- U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.
- Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the ninth week in a row.
BDI Freight Index
- The Baltic Dry Index fell for the 8th straight session to 2,438 on Friday, a new low since April 19th,
- The Baltic Dry Index fell 6% in the first week of June, the fourth straight weekly decline. amid concerns over demand, price controls of key commodities and delays at Shenzhen’s port of Yantian after a Covid-19 outbreak earlier closed part of the facility.
- The capesize, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, slumped 65.3 to 2,524, a near two-month low.
- The panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and iron ore, rose 1.3% to 2,933, the highest since May 14.
- Among smaller vessels, the supramax index edged up 8 points to 2,449.
- Source: Baltic Exchange
Copper has been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities. , The weekly channel since the low has captured the move and has rebalanced the chikou after the power spits of +8/8 and +2/8. Support at the tenkan and the median line this week, multiple failures at +4/8
US Crude Oil (WTI)
4 Hour:: Since bottoming at -1/8 240 and breaking the tenkan and then confirming the next wave up over the Kijun and 50ma WTI has extended off each tenkan spit as marked. Targets remain +2/8 and above MM. Support is the kijun and 50ma
Daily: WTI retested and broke the double top successfully to close above +2/8 multiple resistance. We have rallied since we tested and spat the daily kijun, 50 dma and tenkan as the market rebalanced at the mid point of the month’s range. We had been effectively consolidating since we broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September. In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan & prev high confluence. Resistance is Murrey Math levels and Fib clusters.
Weekly: WTI rebounded after corrected off previous highs in clinical ABC and rebalanced chikou indicative of crowd behavior ahead of $70 strike and 50% fib at 70.29 over 7/8. Reflect on series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Oil tested and held support at Tenkan. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma It must retain this energy to take out new highs last seen 2019.
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Daily: US Natural Gas after completing the (ii) of 1 bearish or the alternative C of 4 bullish scenario has played out both the corrective and consolidation phases since it completed its B or IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Price has moved over the Tenkan and Kijun through the 50dma, which are now support. Key is if can cross through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and said highs. Support is tenkan and cloud
Weekly: Natty has moved in a series of 3’s since spat the 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan and bounced off the 50wma. Testing recent highs on its 3rd attempt. A series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel., as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.
Key Energy Reports
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Drew 5079kbbls as Refinery Utilization Rose to Highest Since Pandemic Began
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Build of 98 Bcf in Natural Gas Inventories
- Cabot Oil & Gas and Cimarex Merger Disappoints Investors
- G7 Commits to Accelerate Transition From Coal While China Builds Coal Capacity
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report May 2021
- Spot Gold declined 0.6% to $1,892 (down 0.4%).
- Silver slipped 0.5% to $27.7933 (up 5.3%).
Gold bulls got a strong trading week as weaker bond yields are keeping the dollar vulnerable to further losses. Gold’s primary driver is real yields and now that the 10-year real yield is back around March lows in an extended consolidation that could see further downward pressure for Treasury yields. Gold is benifitting from China giving banks permission to import bullion. Gold has massive support at the $1750, $1765, $1800 region, followed by the weekly cloud around the $1858 level.
After its manic rise to +5/8 weekly and rebalance of the Kikou in 5 waves then tested and failed the Tenkan, kijun and 50 wma. We found support at the wave 1 confluence of the higher degeree 5, To be bullish we would need to stay above the cloud. We appear to have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs BUT NOT yet Tenkan & Kijun fails.Murrey Math resistance. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.
Silver is back at the cloud, key 38% and 50wma providing support after the correction following the squeeze which forced Gold/Silver which buoyed silver in the PM space, eventually we reversed with a double top Knowing that recall Silver did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. The weekly Tenkan crossing the Kijun would signal more downside. Note the MM
Part D: Forex Markets
John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
- For the week,the U.S. Dollar Index was up slightly to 90.136 (up 0.2% y-t-d).
- Majors for the week on the upside, the Australian dollar 0.4%, the Japanese yen 0.3% and the Swiss franc 0.1%. On the downside, the British pound 0.2%, the euro 0.2%, and the Canadian dollar 0.1%.
- Minors for the week on the upside, the Brazilian real increased 3.5%, the South African rand 2.5%, the Norwegian krone 0.7%, the Swedish krona 0.4%,. On the downside, the New Zealand dollar declined 0.5%, the Singapore dollar 0.1%, the Mexican peso 0.1%, the South Korean won 0.1%. The Chinese renminbi declined 0.42% versus the dollar this week (up 2.06% y-t-d).
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
Aussie dollar completed a 5 at the pysch 80 level and it back doing a break retest of 8/8 and the weekly tenkan. as one would expect after it completed 5 waves in emotive fashion. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves but between the Tenkan and Kijun like many commodities.The AUDUSD old three year high of 0.7820 from January 6. is a key option energy point playing out.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The Kiwi has been strengthening after RBNZ policy mostly went as expected with no changes with interest rates or its large-scale asset purchases. NZD has mirrored the AUD in its wave (iii) spit and has since closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave and running to the 38% Fib & 6/8 confluence. Support the Kijun and Resistance Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 6/8 spits.
Canadian Dollar – USDCAD
The Loonie hit in 3 year high this week as it continues to benefit from dollar weakness and commodity currency strength led by the AUSD and NZD after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower (USD higher) We closed ender the old 38.8% confluence. Use Fibs for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up
Euro – EURUSD
The Euro continues to correct in flags after broke the channel last May. after ABC (IV) then retested the tenkan to spit the +1/8 in 5 waves from there we closed the week back testing the tenkan (orange) and now Kijun (pink). A question of degree on recent high – 1 complete or 1 of 3?, Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked. Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility.
British Pound – USDGBP
The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.
EuroPound – EURGBP
Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.
Japanese Yen – USDJPY
USDJPY has declined for two consecutive weeks following the recent weakness with Treasury yields. BOJ could start to decrease purchases and that should thwart some yen strength. The 108.00 level should remain massive support for dollar-yen as long as Treasury yields start to stabilize. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off
Mexican Peso USDMXN
The Peso corrected the collapse to +1/8 against the USD right back to the 100% Fib We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.
Turkish Lire USDTRY
The Turkish Lire had corrected back to the weekly cloud to bounce to the Kijun, correcting back through Tenkan. The Turkish Central Bank removed its tightening bias and scrapped the end-2021 inflation target in a dovish move. The Turkish lira has plunged about 11% since Naci Agbal was fired as the central bank governor in March.
In the last 12 months Bitcoin exploded after it spent a year consolidating under the 61.8% spit. Each tenkan and kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of life to over 423% of that consolidation. Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking . (Recall what happened after the CME and CBOE futures starts)
From there we have seen what you would expect from a 5 wave impulse peak, a violent correction or completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.
On the Risk Radar
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Economic and Geopolitical Watch
Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported under 800,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits for the second time since the crisis. With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and the big question is will they come back?
May 20 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): “Corporations around the world should pay at least a 15% tax on their earnings, the Treasury Department said… as part of its push for a global minimum for businesses. The final rate could go even higher than that, according to a Treasury release that said the 15% minimum is a ‘floor and that discussions should continue to be ambitious and push that rate higher.’”
May 18 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): “Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called… for business leaders to pay higher taxes to support government stimulus spending, and backed stronger labor unions and lowering barriers to foreign competition… Yellen reiterated the White House’s intent to raise taxes on corporations and the highest earners as part of an ambitious infrastructure spending plan. The administration also is seeking a global corporate minimum tax in an effort to stop companies from relocating their bases to avoid higher levies at home. ‘With corporate taxes at a historical low of one percent of GDP, we believe the corporate sector can contribute to this effort by bearing its fair share: we propose simply to return the corporate tax toward historical norms,’ Yellen said…
” May 15 – Wall Street Journal (Ben Chapman): “Police departments in New York City and other large metro areas across the U.S. are bulking up patrols and implementing new tactics to prepare for what they say could be a violent summer. States lifting Covid-19 restrictions and more people out in public spaces in warmer weather increase the likelihood of more shootings, as well as less-serious crimes, officials say… Shootings and homicides in big U.S. cities are up this year again after rising last year. In the last three months of 2020, homicides rose 32.2% in cities with a population of at least one million, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Quarterly Uniform Crime Report.”
The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences In a fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.
- May 19 – Reuters (Nidal Al-mughrabi, Stephen Farrell and Jeffrey Heller): “Israel bombarded Gaza with air strikes and Palestinian militants resumed cross-border rocket fire on Tuesday after a brief overnight lull during which the U.N. sent a small fuel convoy into the enclave, where it says 52,000 people are now displaced. Israeli leaders said they were pressing on with an offensive to destroy the capabilities of the armed factions Hamas and Islamic Jihad, amid calls by the United States and other world powers for an end to the conflict.
- ”Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the China and India’s Himalaya border, a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
- May 21 – Bloomberg: “A tightening of Chinese developers’ use of secretive funding is threatening to curb growth in the world’s second-largest economy. For years, China’s property developers have drawn on shadowy pools of capital to fund their projects. Now, government scrutiny is reining in that system, after already curbing traditional avenues of funding. Debt-laden developers including China Evergrande Group will likely need to scale back growth and resort to other means such as equity financing and spinning off more assets for financing to avoid defaults.
- ‘Polarization among Chinese developers will deepen this year, and more developers are likely to suffer from debt failures,’ said John Sun, co-managing partner at Aplus Partners Management Co… Weaker developers ‘will need to sell assets to fight for survival, while some will likely default on their debt.’”
- May 19 – Reuters: “Taiwan will tighten curbs on the use of water from June 1 in the major chip making hubs of Hsinchu and Taichung as it battles an islandwide drought, if there is no significant rainfall by then, the government said… Describing the drought as the worst in the island’s history, the economy ministry said in the absence of rain it would raise the drought alert level to its highest, requiring companies in the two science parks to cut water consumption by 17%.”
- “France’s public deficit is expected to reach 9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said…, up from a previous forecast of 8.5% as the country enters its third national coronavirus lockdown. The change follows a downward revision of France’s growth forecast from 6% to 5% for this year… Le Maire… said France’s public debt was set to reach 118% of GDP this year, up from its latest forecast of 115%.”
- May 20 – Reuters: “German producer prices rose by 5.2% year-on-year in April, the biggest increase in nearly a decade…, in a further sign that supply bottlenecks are leading to increased inflation pressure in Europe’s largest economy. The rise in producer prices followed a 3.7% year-on-year increase in March and compared with a Reuters poll forecast of 5.1%. Compared to the previous month, producer prices were up 0.8% in April…”
- May 20 – Associated Press (Vladimir Isachenkov): “Russian President Vladimir Putin alleged… some of the country’s foreign foes dream about biting off pieces of the country’s vast territory, warning that Moscow would ‘knock their teeth out’ if they ever try. In strong remarks during a conference call with officials, the Russian president noted that foreign efforts to contain Russia date from centuries ago. ‘In all times, the same thing happened: once Russia grew stronger, they found pretexts to hamper its development,’ Putin said… ‘Everyone wants to bite us or bite something off us, but those who would like to do so should know that we would knock their teeth out so that they couldn’t bite,’ the Russian leader said. ‘The development of our military is the guarantee of that.’”c
- May 17 – Bloomberg (Eduardo Thomson, Valentina Fuentes and Matthew Malinowski): “Chilean assets plunged after the ruling coalition suffered a surprise drubbing in the election for a constituent assembly, placing the writing of a new charter firmly in the hands of the left-wing. The benchmark stock exchange closed down 9.3%…, while the peso fell 2.3%. Yields on Chile peso bonds due in 2030 jumped 22 bps to 3.82%. Candidates from the ruling coalition obtained just 37 of 155 seats on the assembly designed to write the new constitution… Contenders unaffiliated with any political parties secured 65 seats. The result means the ruling coalition falls short of the one-third threshold they needed to block market-unfriendly clauses in the new charter.”
- For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however.
- Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq.
- Trade wars persist between Australia and China. The largest exporter of commodities and the worlds largest importer of commodities. China is experiencing record cold weather and it’s beligerance is hurting shooting itself in the foot. Regional partners such as Japan and India have supported Australia’s standing up to Chinese bullying.
- In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..We are awaiting Biden’s offical resposne.
- Chairman Chi and President Biden had a phone hook last month week with the US saying they will review all policies but tariffs to stand in the meantime. China continued it’s theats on the matter.
Fat Tail Virus Risk
- May 21 – CNBC (Nate Rattner): “The U.S. is reporting an average of fewer than 30,000 new Covid cases per day for the first time in nearly a year. The seven-day average of new infections is about 29,100 as of Thursday, according to… Johns Hopkins University. This marks the first time the average has dipped below 30,000 since June 22, 2020. Federal data shows the country is reporting 1.8 million daily vaccinations on average over the past week, with 48% of the population having received one shot or more.”
- Fauci believes 70%-85% of the population must be vaccinated to reach herd immunity.
The major money cents banks released earnings with many record results for Q1. Mainly from trading and fees from IPO’s and SPAC’s. Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.
- Goldman Sachs Trading and SPACs Investment Banking Fees Pull in Record Revenue
- Wells Fargo Beat Earnings With $1.05 Billion Reserve Release
- JPMorgan Earnings Boosted By Trading and Release of Loan Loss Reserves
- Blackrock Earnings Soar As Assets Under Management Rose to Record $9 Trillion
- PNC Bank Earnings Beat Ahead of Completing BBVA USA Bancshares Acquisition
- Citigroup Beats Earnings on Reserve Release, Exiting Most Consumer Banking in Asia, Europe, and Middle East
- Bank of America Earnings Rise With Net Interest Yield and Release of Loan loss Reserves
- Morgan Stanley Dealmaking and Trading Drive Record Profits
Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don’t exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.
Potentially the top six banks can buy back $11 billion in the first-quarter. Goldman Sachs shares after the announcement led the rally with a 7.7% increase. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan jumped 6.4% and 4.9% at intraday highs. Within minutes of the announcement all three banks have announced plans to resume buybacks in the new year.
Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose. otal Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $737 billion during Q3 to a record $60.113 trillion.
Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.
“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”
The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan
Monetary policy meetings in the Eurozone, Canada and Russia will be keenly watched, as well as updated GDP figures for Japan, the Eurozone, the UK and South Africa. The key focus in the week ahead for the US is May’s consumer inflation. Economists expect CPI to be up 4.7% year over year, after April’s 4.2% pace, according to Dow Jones. Core inflation is expected to be up 0.4% for the month and 3.4% year over year.
There are dozens of earnings expected in the week ahead. Another weekly key is the jobless figures after Thursday’s report of the lowest level since the early days of the pandemic. G7 finance ministers reached a historic agreement on Saturday to reform the global tax system ahead of the highly anticipated G7 leaders’ summit on 11-13 June 2021. Other important releases include China inflation and foreign trade data; US and Australia consumer sentiment; Germany and India industrial output; and Japan current account.
Central Banker and Geopolitics Watch speeches, reports and rate moves.
Monday: June 7 2021
- none seen
Tuesday June 8, 2021
- 19:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
Wednesday June 9, 2021
- 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
- Tentative CAD BOC Press Conference
Thursday June 10, 2021
- 07:45 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Jun)
- 07:45 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility
- 07:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
- 08:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
- 09:00 RUB Central Bank reserves (USD)
- 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (May)
Friday June 11, 2021
- None Seen
Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.
Economic Events in the Week Ahead:
Sunday, June 6 2021
- 18:30 AUD AIG Services Index (May)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Reserves (USD) (May)
- 21:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)
Monday, June 7 2021
- All Day Holiday New Zealand – Queen’s Birthday
- 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Apr)
- 01:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM) (Apr)
- 01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (May)
- 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:30 CHF CPI (MoM) (May)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr)
- 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (May)
- 04:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence (Jun)
- 06:30 EUR Spanish Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (May)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 11:41 CNY FX Reserves (USD) (May)
- 11:42 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (May)
- 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Apr)
- 9:00 KRW Current Account (Apr)
- 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (May)
- 19:30 JPY Overall wage income of employees (Apr)
- 19:50 JPY Bank Lending (YoY) (May)
- 19:50 JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Apr)
- 19:50 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1)`
- 19:50 JPY GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1)
- 20:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
- 21:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (May)
- 21:30 AUD NAB Business Survey (May)
Tuesday, June 8, 2021
- 01:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (May)
- 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:45 EUR French Current Account (Apr)
- 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 05:00 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR Employment Change (YoY) (Q1)
- 05:00 EUR Employment Overall (Q1)
- 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
- 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (May)
- 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Apr)
- 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Apr)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
- 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Apr) ‘
- 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:45 NZD Manufacturing Sales Volume (QoQ) (Q1) ‘
- 19:00 KRW GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 19:00 KRW Unemployment Rate (May)
- 19:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
- 21:00 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
- 21:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
- 21:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (May)
- 21:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (May)
Wednesday June 10, 2021
- 02:00 EUR Gemran Current Account Balance n.s.a (Apr)
- 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Apr)
- 02:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
- 10:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
- 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- Tentative CAD BOC Press Conference
- 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
- 18:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)
- 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (May)
- 19:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (May)
- 21:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
Thursday, June 11, 2021
- 00:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
- 01:30 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q1)
- 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
- Tentative CNY New Loans
- Tentative CNY Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY)
- Tentative CNY Chinese Total Social Financing
- 05:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Apr)
- 05:30 ZAR Mining Production (Apr)
- 07:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
- 07:45 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Jun)
- 07:45 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility
- 07:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
- 09:00 RUB Central Bank reserves (USD)
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (May)
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 12:00 USD WASDE Report
- 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
- 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (May)
- 17:00 KRW Export Price Index (YoY) (May)
- 17:00 KRW Import Price Index (YoY) (May) ‘
- 18:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (May)
- 18:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
- 19:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q2)
Friday, June 11, 2021
- 02:00 GBP Construction Output (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:00 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:00 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:00 GBP Trade Balance (Apr)
- 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (May)
- 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)
- 02:45 EUR French HICP (MoM)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) (May)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish HICP (MoM) (May)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
- 06:30 RUB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
- 08:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (Q1)
- 09:00 GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats.
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Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.