July 9 – 16, 2023

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community…

The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?

Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

• Part A: Stock markets
• Part B: Bonds
• Fed and Banks
• Part C: Commodities
• Energy – Oil and Gas
• Gold and Silver
• Part D: Foreign Exchange
• Geopolitics and Economics
• Economy Week ahead

Editorial

The uncertain nature of global markets was there to remind us Thursday and Friday. We had a red-hot ADP jobs report Thursday sending yields soaring, the US dollar higher and stocks lower. Come the next day the official jobs report comes in lower, less than half the ADP number and the reverse happens. The violent two day moves in the US yield curve saw a notable moderation of the 2s-10s inversion by Friday’s close. The 2-yr note recovered Thursday’s entire loss, continuing this week’s outperformance, which alleviated some pressure on the 2s10s spread, widening it by 17 bps to -89 bps. A reminder the 2s10s spread compressed by 31 bps in June and 49 bps in Q2.

This should remind you of the folly of relying on statistics and not having a plan longer than two minutes. Why we look through the deeper cycles right to trading at the market.

Inflation, deflation or disinflation? Changes by the data drop it seems and the herd’s response. The macro template with bonds and currencies are picking up the likely scenarios, lets dig deeper again.

Shares were lower on Friday in a quick sell off that no one seemed to be to explain, the fact is it shouldn’t have rallied earlier is probably the best explanation. The market is constantly looking to find balance whilst so many participants are either uber bulls or bears construing the daily shifts. The June jobs data eased some concerns after the ADP report about the interest rate outlook, at the same time it also justified a July rate increase. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020. Consensus was 225,000, it was the first time in 15 months that payrolls missed expectations.

This….

Then that ….

Average hourly earnings in June rose 0.4 per cent after climbing by the same margin in May. That kept the annual increase in wages at 4.4 per cent in June, too high to be consistent with the Fed’s 2 per cent inflation target. Eyes are now firmly on the inflation risks in the week ahead, the fragility of the global market, particularly emerging markets are all being pushed to the outer bands as they were during the last bond bum rush.

Markets have priced a roughly 90 per cent probability of a 25bps hike at the July Fed meeting, up from less than 70 per cent early last week. Fear appears fleeting after a spike Thursday the VIX fell 4 per cent to 14.83. The yield on the US 10-year note edged 3 basis points higher to 4.06 per cent, the two-year yield was at 4.95 per cent; it has surged as high as 5.12 per cent Thursday on the hot ADP private jobs report.

Crude oil posted a second weekly gain, crude oil futures threatened to break higher all week and settled at $73.86 Friday right at its 100-day moving average, up $2.06 or 2.87% for the day and 4.53% for the week. This week’s move was the largest increase since the week of April 3. Support came from a lower US dollar, Russian Energy Ministry confirming oil supplies cuts by 500K Bpd by cutting exports and the Department of Energy issuing a request for proposals to purchase another 6Mbbls for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

We are seeing the cycle work at play with the June 30 close near 4500 on the S&P 500 being major window dressing and we now watch who deep the shorts go on or has the herd tuned bullish. By that we mean do they stay bullish on brisk pullbacks. We watch the curve and note the aggressiveness of Central Banks. The Comments from the BOE where there are basically saying to heck with growth, we need to stop inflation at all costs. The gilt disaster of last year has much to do with that public stance.

Higher for longer is a serious threat

Surging market yields are a serious issue for a banking system loaded with long duration securities portfolios. This may well be a push over the cliff for troubled commercial real estate (CRE). Leveraged lending and leveraged finance gets more costly. Simply there are trillions of floating rate loans among individuals, speculators, businesses, and nations.

• The iShares Investment Grade Corporate ETF (LQD) declined 1.01% Thursday, the largest loss since May 1st. The 2.40% loss for the week was the largest since February.
• The iShares High Yield ETF (HYG) declined 0.73% Thursday, also the largest decline since May 1st. The 1.63% loss for the week, the worst weekly performance since early-March.
• Friday Bloomberg headlines: “HYG ETF Daily Outflows $1.13 Bln, Biggest Move Since March 28th.” and “Two Giant Credit ETFs Hit by $2 Billion Exit on Hawkish Fed Bets.”

Global Yields Spiking Higher

• UK 10-year yields were up 16 bps Thursday to 5.54%, with two-year yields surging as much as 18 bps to a 15-year high 5.54%. Reminiscent of last fall, UK yields were pulling global yields higher – even before the jolt from the ADP report.
• Italian 10-year yields surged 21 bps Thursday (4.37%),
• Greek yields jumped 18 bps (3.97%).
• Ten-year yields rose 17 bps in Spain (3.70%) and Portugal (3.36%).

• Canadian 10-year yields surged 30 bps this week to an eight-month high of 3.57%.
• Australian 10-year yields jumped 23 bps this week to 4.26% – the high since January 2014.
• New Zealand yields rose 22 bps to 4.85% – the high since July 2011.

Emerging Market (EM) bond yields reversed sharply higher.

The EM bond ETF (EMB) dropped 1.43% Thursday and 2.25% for the week – the largest daily and weekly losses since February. Ominously for “carry trade” levered speculation, EM bond losses were compounded by an abrupt rally in the Japanese yen. This week’s 1.46%-yen gain versus the dollar was the biggest since December.

Local currency yields

• Hungary rose 33 bps (7.33%)
• South Africa rose 32 bps (12.07%)
• Mexico rose 25 bps in Mexico (8.93%)

Dollar denominated EM debt

• 25 bps in Chile (5.13%),
• 25 bps in Indonesia (5.05%),
• 25 bps in Colombia (8.26%),
• 24 bps in the Philippines (5.00%),
• 23 bps in Panama (6.04%),

For the next six months, we stick to our technical outlook via KnovaWave, watch the curve and EURUSD and USDJPY. Does France impact the Euro and CAC40? If the protests are contained, then we know the answer.

These markets are constantly evolving, the important things is why we are here and it isn’t a surprise.

Worth reading again what fueled the recent rally…

When Markets Get Short Behind the Curve

Global stocks have continued to climb the wall of worry in 2023, with what has become a series of saves from the brink of economic disaster in a political episode worthy of the best Monty Python minds. The end result has left many investors over insured at times as we have been focusing on with option saturation, short bets and long only investors out of the market. The latter in a rising market essentially makes them short. This background is not new we have seen it many times over the last 20 to 30 years. The difference here is the sheer weight of money in the system and the introduction of shorter dated options and so many playing it.

Speculators and hedge funds have put on the largest short positions in the S&P 500 since 2007 according to Bespoke Investment Group using CFTC data measured as a percentage of open futures-market interest.

At the same time, they have bet long on the Nasdaq-100, with net bullish plays in recent weeks nearing the highest levels since late last year, remember that. Markets go where the most pain is. The move, in a world where averaging your position is seen as trading has fueled larger positions. Anyone understand the martingale principle?

Fed Assets expanded $364 billion over three weeks in March in banking crisis liquidity operations (the market has a short memory that was only 8 weeks ago and helped create bigger shorts out there). Assets remain about $45 billion above the March 1st level. FHLB assets expanded an unprecedented $317 billion during Q1 ($802bn over 4 quarters). Indicative of the liquidity surge, money market fund assets inflated $384 billion in the five weeks beginning March 8th. In affect we got a massive boost a surge in financial sector Credit with those FHLB money market borrowings to finance its massive banking liquidity support operations.

On top of that money fund assets were up another $31 billion last week, despite risk embracement and record equity fund inflows. These factors have not been grasped by many. Again, why we say watch Bonds and Foreign Exchange they will tell you the answers first. Now throw on top the artificial intelligence mania with record amounts of money flowing into tech stocks. Tech funds attracting an all-time high of $8.5 billion in the week through May 31, according to EPFR Global data.

The defense of the shorts is that disaster is coming any minute or the S&P500 would be down if it wasn’t for tech Mega caps. Shares of the 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 climbed 8.9%, while the other 490 fell 4.3%, according to Bespoke. The index as a whole was just up 0.2%.

That’s all well and good the trouble it is up, and substantially and the cost of carry is around 6-12% not 0-2% from last year. Trading from the short side is about timing, recognition and as they say strike like a cobra. The demise of the Californian and New York Regional Banks was a prime example, they were on the radar and once the cracks appeared, go hard, go fast.

Where are the Shorts Trapped at? (Becomes the Longs After Wave C’s or 3’s)

There is two ways of looking at this the bears and the dribblers out there argue it all has to come down. The rationale being the S&P 500 is up 12% this year, however it would be negative without the contribution of seven big tech companies. The argument is should any of those plunges then we are back to bringing it all down. The problem is it has gone up, look at the AAPL and NVDA for just two names.

YTD Report Card for the S&P Sectors

This move has crept up on many, to the extent the S&P 500’s is over the traditional measurement of a new bull market typically measured as a 20% gain from a significant low. The index above 4292.438 got that 20% move. That ended the longest bear market since 1948. The DAX and CAC40 have seen all-time highs recently also.

Global Debt Monitor

Highlights Unprecedented and Ongoing Surge in Global Debt

Last week, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) released their Q1 2023 Global Debt Monitor (GDM), highlighting the unprecedented – and ongoing – surge in global debt.

GDM Highlights:

• “The global debt stock grew by $8.3 trillion to a near-record $305 trillion in Q123; the combination of high debt levels and rising interest rates has pushed up debt service costs, prompting concerns about leverage in the financial system.”
• “Total debt of emerging markets hit a fresh record high of over $100 trillion (or 250% of GDP) – up from $75 trillion in 2019.”
• “At close to $305 trillion, global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly.”
• “Rise of private debt markets: Non-bank financial institutions (NBFLs) continue to gain prominence in global credit intermediation. The so-called ‘shadow banks’ now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment and private debt markets.”
• “The Size of Private Debt Markets Surpassed $2.1 Trillion in 2022, Up From Less Than $0.1 Trillion in 2007.”

From the end of Q3 2019 through Q1 2023, Total Global Debt jumped $52.3 TN, or 20.7%, to $305 TN.

Over this period, “Mature” economy debt expanded 13.4%, while “Emerging” economy debt surged 38.9%. It’s worth nothing that in the “Emerging” category, “Household” debt surged 41.7%, “Non-Financial Corporate” 35.1%, and “Government” 55.7%. Since 2016, total global debt-to-GDP has surged from 210% to 360%. Global financial conditions remain loose. When they inevitably tighten, be prepared for serious dislocation.

How is the Consumer Hanging?

The US relies on services for up to 90% of GDP. it relies on the consumer who is being battered by the California and New York regional bank debacle. On top of that is cumbersome if not ignorant politicians, with no clear regard for main street the evidence suggests in their behavior.

For a clearer look with earnings reports from PepsiCo (PEP), JPMorgan (JPM), Delta Air Lines (DAL), BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Citigroup (NYSE:C).

Key retailers all gave a cautionary note with tightened household budgets continue to hit demand for big-ticket items and curb discretionary spending.

We get more data to help us gage the consumer: Weekly MBA Mortgage, Weekly Initial and Continuing jobless claims.  We also get consumer credit, NFIB Small Business Optimism, Consumer Price Index, Import and export price indexes; University of Michigan sentiment

Where is the fear?

We got some movement this past week out of the tight range in markets but as we can see from the VIX chart it quickly reverted back after the initial breaks. We are aware of built-up energy ahead of key central bank decisions from this week and potential fundamentals to set-up rate hikes or not. There is discontent globally with central Banks.

With optionality dominating markets along with quant funds, algorithms, systematic trading and automated trading volatility has collapsed as has been focused on at KnovaWave. The S&P 500 has moved less than 1% in either direction for 36 of the last 46 sessions, according to Dow Jones Market Data, the quietest 46-day stretch since December 2021. This in a period of a regional bank crisis and debt ceiling crisis. These systems have no emotion and trade accordingly.

Driving quant funds is a self-reinforcing dynamic, when market volatility drops, they add which causes those funds that have paid higher volatility to cover and hence we get the churn. At the end of March, quant-focused hedge funds held about $1.13 trillion in assets, according to research firm HFR, hovering just below last year’s record high. That represents about 29% of all hedge-fund assets.

To break out of this requires a continuing break in a major down, or up move to ignite delta chasing or covering.

So-called vol-control and risk-parity funds, which tend to automatically load up on riskier assets during calmer periods, ramped up equity exposure, according to the Deutsche Bank data, available through May 18. Other quants, such as trend-following CTAs, or commodity trading advisers, have similarly piled in.

The dominance of quants has helped explain previous periods of calm trading, including long stretches in 2017 and 2018. Those periods were punctured by rapid selloffs, including the 2018 selloff dubbed “Volmageddon” when the dynamics exerting calm on the market suddenly went away. Some warn a repeat could be ahead.

Caitlin McCabe WSJ

Talking about manic behavior it is not hard to argue the punter is overwhelming and influencing markets like no other time, well until the next time.

When the VIX is highly reactive, VIX related products can serve as potentially effective hedging tools, when the VIX is not very reactive, traditional hedging techniques may be a better choice.

The VOLX`s underlying instrument is the Mini VIX™ Future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility. The VIX is calculated using a formula to derive expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of out-of-the-money puts and calls (options) on the S&P 500.

Ahead:

Eyes will be on top macroeconomic reports that will emphasize the health of the US and global economies. Eyes and ears will be on central bankers given the market turmoil and the hiking of rates.

It will be a busy week in the with the Q2 US bank earnings season, CPI and globally the BoC, another hike? RBNZ, Peru and BoK all expected to hold. A dovish week for China data and a look at UK job market.

Inflation Deluge

Wednesday – July 12 8:30 a.m. Investors will have the June Consumer Price Index report fall into their laps. Economists forecast headline inflation to fall to 3.0% from 4.0% in May and core inflation to be reported at 5.0% from 5.3% in May.

Thursday – July 13 8:30 a.m. The Producer Price Index report is expected to show a 0.2% month-over-month increase. Producer prices continue to ease as supply chains improve and demand softens.

Friday – July 14 10:00 a.m. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is expected to show a continued rebound. The one-year inflation expectations component dropped to a two-year low in June, and long-run inflation expectations index also ticked lower.

How Hot is the American Economy?

More Macro and Micro data points, some highlights include:

• Monday: Wholesale inventories; consumer credit
• Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism
• Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage, CPI, Weekly oil inventories, Beige Book
• Thursday: Weekly Initial and Continuing jobless claims, PPI, Weekly natural gas inventories; federal budget statement
• Friday: Import and export price indexes; University of Michigan sentiment

Swirling greed and know it all came home to roost. FOMO (fear of missing out) and TINA (there is no alternative) ended how they always do.

Earnings season continues with earnings from technology and retail companies including Delta Airlines (DAL), Conagra Brands (CAG), PepsiCo (PEP), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan (JPM), State Street (STT) BlackRock (BLK)

Click here to see the Full Week Ahead List Below

A reminder in these markets don’t get married to a view, leave biased partisan opinions at the door and find a leader. Right now, NVDA is giving us a good indicator of crowd behavior. Note the divergence and convergence with it and other instruments. Be proactive.

Worth repeating again in the low VIX environment.

Well, 2008 redux didn’t happen in the last few months, so the Fed moves have worked for now, much to Xi and Putin’s chagrin.

The doomsayers may be right, but we are seeing constant surprises to that theory. For example, early signs that the US housing market slump is finding a base are emerging, pending home sales having risen for a third month and to a 6-month high. we will keep an eye on consumer sentiment and business activity. We are far from being out of the woods, remember the market is not the economy. Saying that we got quite the distorted job picture per our main job stories which wee reprise below. Are we simply taking some air out or is the beginning of the great meltdown?

What we continue to notice is how this market is still being treated by ‘experts’ as those in the past, hence the volatility and extreme in bulls/bears. Understanding crowd behavior is essential in these markets. The moves have caught analysts and strategists by surprise with the uber bear running amok in the past few weeks. Typical thinking is this from Morgan Stanley strategists a month ago; “Given the events of the past few weeks, we think … equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates”, noting that earnings estimates were 15-20% too high even “before the recent banking events.”

What non-traders are failing to grasp is this market with so many variables is not trading as they expect and they are constantly wrong. S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter are estimated to have fallen 5% from 2022, followed by an expected 3.9% drop in the second quarter, Refinitiv data shows. During recessions, however, earnings tumble at a 24% annual rate on average, according to Ned Davis Research. However how important is that in such a chaotic market? There is the answer structure your thinking around game theory or even chaos theory.

So how Screwed are We?

• The banking system is on much greater Credit risk than mortgage risks were offloaded during the 2008 mortgage finance Bubble. At $25.6 TN, Banking System Assets ended 2022 almost double the 2007 level.
• Financial Sector debt growth jumped to a 9.66% rate last year, the strongest since 2007’s 13.50% Z.1 data showed. Now we are looking at this given the quick demise of regional banks and the concerns of the commercial structure. Why? we simple note a jump in Financial Sector borrowings signals a surge in risk intermediation. Is this fateful late-cycle intermediation gong to haunt the financial sector and economy when the Bubble bursts.
• If it doesn’t burst well, we circle back to the popular view that Financial Sector debt included in analysis would be “double counting” borrowings already included elsewhere (i.e. mortgage and business). The swift end to backs, the shocking management out there and geopolitical cold war out there has us ready to expect the unexpected and aware of moves to mitigate by Central banks as we saw a few weeks ago.
• GSE Assets expanded an unprecedented $2.094 TN, or 29.4%, over the past three years to a record $9.224 TN. FHLB Assets surged $524 billion, or 72%, in 2022, with indications for Q1 growth upwards of (yes) $400 billion.
• FHLB plays a pivotal role, last year prolonging the lending boom and last month stabilizing bank liquidity.

The Credit cycle downturn is coming to the surface.

We have the reflective destabilizing Monetary Disorder. Take a peek at China and the markets collective cognitive dissonance to the property market there, the shadow banking as just one example. Have a look around the world. The hope is the collective mass continues to evolve and survive, while each time the destruction is evident in massive disproportion shifts of wealth and attempts of mind, if not physical control of the masses. Dial that back and try and get in the minds of those trying to right the ship and the market components that matter, not what the dribblers think matter.

Here’s a thought, knowing about the power of cognitive dissonance does not necessarily protect you from its effects. Traders are only too aware of this eureka moment when you grasp it. Why some of the best trades you ever do, are the ones you don’t. In option parlance, being delta neutral sometimes is the best trade.

Key this coming week will be the commencement of the next round of such indicators that will test whether these gains were one-offs or something that is sustainable. The key will be the extent to which downside risks to the US economy have been reduced enough to influence global central banks, and how markets react.

Some things never change, when you think Greed is Good

Annualizing the New York Fed’s Q4 household borrowing data, Credit card debt expanded at a 26% pace and total debt at a 9.5% rate during the quarter. The Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle has had little affect on loose financial conditions.

Where to from here? It’s also okay to acknowledge and process any difficult emotions or experiences that you may have had during the past year. Looking back on the past year with perspective can help you to gain a greater understanding of what you have been through and how you have coped. I hope that you are able to find ways to manage any challenges that come your way and that you continue to feel fine moving forward. Embrace the chaos that is headed your way in 2023!

China; Behind the Iron Curtain

A big shift in 2022, China’s population is now falling and below that of India. China’s population fell for the first time since 1961 as births have steadily fallen in recent years despite the removal of the “one child policy”. The stalling working age population and its likely decline ahead means that potential growth in China is down from around 10% or so in the 2000s to around 4-5% now.

Growth in China’s metric of system Credit growth, Aggregate Financing, dropped to $175 billion, down significantly from March’s $773 billion and only 61% of estimates. It was also the weakest monthly growth since last October.

“China is warning domestic brokerages not to spread information that compromises national security, reinforcing a campaign that has roiled consulting firms and providers of financial data.”

• July 7 – Bloomberg: “Chinese authorities are weighing plans to support cash-strapped cities and counties by allowing additional local bond issuance to help pay down hidden debt in higher-risk areas, according to people familiar… The proposals… could help address one of the biggest financial worries in the world’s second-largest economy: strains in debts at local-government financing vehicles.”
• July 5 – Bloomberg: “Fresh signs emerged Wednesday that China is facing yet more challenges in its property debt crisis. Defaulted developer Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. failed to find a buyer for a $1.8 billion project at a forced auction, even at a heavy discount. Sino-Ocean Group Holding Ltd. saw its bonds tumble on news that the state-backed builder told some creditors it’s been working with two major shareholders on its debt load. They’re the latest indications that China’s two-year real estate crisis is likely to remain one of the biggest drags on the world’s second-largest economy.”

The Market Tripod of Destruction.

• Firstly, financial asset overvaluation has swung way past any sound underlying economic wealth structure.
• Secondly over-leverage in crowded bets.
• Thirdly we have greed enthused, as always in these cycles, risk engineering, transfer and management that ignores or understands bifurcation and contagion outcomes.

Leverage has become toxic, a development that if not addressed will have deep and with far-reaching sequels. It’s not too farfetched to suggest that the markets are on the verge of a rupture that would be difficult to contain. Should the crisis of confidence dynamics that hit Britain feed into other markets a powerful global contagion could be unleashed. The markets are dislocated, and financial stability is at risk. A sobering thought is the UK is just the initial first world pension system in this cycle facing the harsh reality of a steep devaluation of assets and the prospect of widespread insolvencies and debilitating negative sentiment.

Inflation Matters

• US Producer Price Inflation Moderates Further in May, +1.1% versus +2.3% in April
• Consumer Inflation in May Eases, Core CPI Stays Elevated as Real Earnings Fall
• Robust Increase in Real Spending with Core PCE Inflation at Persistently High Levels in April

Inflation with Henry Kaufman

Kaufman is the legendary chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers is someone who knows Inflation.  Henry Kaufman in an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker Jan 14, 2022:

 “I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”

“The longer the Fed takes to tackle a high rate of inflation, the more inflationary psychology is embedded in the private sector — and the more it will have to shock the system.”

“‘It’s dangerous to use the word transitory,’ Kaufman said. ‘The minute you say transitory, it means you’re willing to tolerate some inflation.’ That, he said, undermines the Fed’s role of maintaining economic and financial stability to achieve ‘reasonable non-inflationary growth.’”

Independence – Never Take It for Granted Traders

“In aggregate, the market goes from order to disorder, and on that journey little pockets of order can form, including in commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies that circle back and reorder disorder. Then there is us the market player that reflects through order and disorder in an ever-evolving loop towards independence. It all starts with gravity and ends with equilibrium and back we go.” KnovaWave “The rules of market flux”

The Fed has kicked off its first real tightening campaign since 1994, with securities markets already at the brink of illiquidity and dislocation. Markets could soon be screaming for assurances of the Fed’s “buyer of last resort” liquidity backstop, while the Fed is prepared to begin withdrawing liquidity by selling Treasuries and MBS.

Another important aspect is the Fed doesn’t Control corporate pricing or wage decisions. Let us be clear geopolitical, climate change developments and what an out of depth, politically motivated administration are outside the Fed’s sphere of influence. There has been over $5.1 Trillion new “money” in 126 weeks, it’s a reasonable conclusion the Fed has lost control of Inflation.

We need to grasp all the risks to be wary off and received plenty of flak from it. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focused on the crowd psychology aspect over the past few weeks.

“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”

– MoneyNeverSleeps

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Our weekly reminder for risk. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.

Part A – Stock Markets

Weekly Highlights – USA

Indices

• S&P500 declined 1.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d),
• Dow fell 2.0% (up 1.8%).
• S&P 400 Midcaps dipped 0.7% (up 7.1%),
• Small cap Russell 2000 lost 1.3% (up 5.9%).
• Nasdaq100 declined 0.9% (up 37.5%).

Sectors

• Utilities dipped 0.3% (down 8.4%).
• Banks increased 0.6% (down 20.0%),
• Broker/Dealers added 0.2% (up 5.2%).
• Transports increased 0.2% (up 16.2%).
• Semiconductors fell 2.6% (up 41.3%).
• Biotechs dropped 2.0% (down 0.6%).
• While bullion gained $6, the HUI gold equities index fell 2.4% (down 0.6%).

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

Global Stock Market Highlights

Highlights – Europe Stocks

Week/YTD

• U.K.’s FTSE equities index sank 3.6% (down 2.6% y-t-d).
• France’s CAC40 sank 3.9% (up 9.9%).
• German DAX equities index lost 3.4% (up 12.1%).
• Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index slumped 3.6% (up 12.4%).
• Italy’s FTSE MIB index declined 1.6% (up 17.2%).

Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September 2021 adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.

Highlights – Asia Stocks

Week/YTD

• Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index dropped 2.4% (up 24.1% y-t-d).
• South Korea’s Kospi index fell 1.5% (up 13.0%).
• India’s Sensex equities index increased 0.9% (up 7.3%).
• China’s Shanghai Exchange Index slipped 0.2% (up 3.5%).

Highlights – Australian Stocks

• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200: -1.7% to 7042.3 Friday. (-2.2% for the week)
• Closed at three-month low
• Australian one-year government bond yields gaining 9 basis points to 4.49%
• Australian 10-year bond yields gaining 10 basis points to 4.22%

Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks

Week/YTD 

• Brazil’s Bovespa index increased 0.7% (up 8.4%),
• Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index surged 7.4% (up 12.3%).
• Russia’s MICEX equities index gained 1.3% (up 31.5%).

Technical Analysis

S&P 500

Daily: The daily SPX closed above the previous roof (Key Spits) which were also at 7/8 and clustered around the 50% & August breakdown. With energy and with a very low VIX it has mirrored the get cloud to get through overhead. The bullish take is that we completed the correction off last year’s high at the low and this is a larger 1-2 to go higher with support at the previous resistance and cloud. The bearish outlook is this move becomes a rising wedge and we are working out the uber bears before new lows.

When we talk about crowd psychology this is a great example. The market after spitting the 4100 and 38.2% retracement broke to capture the Tenkan. This underscores the power from the SPX spat of June & October lows with impulse through the tenkan and Kijun energized by the daily cloud twist that fueled this rally. The completive wave came off extreme fear and bear that ended with relief. Now we have sated much of the greed phase and short fear phase. We have completed that cycle and from here we measure the alternatives.

It is worth looking back at the completive highs (all-time highs) and how we played out so far. Tracing back from highs the fuel from the top of the channel after completing 3 waves off ATH, accelerated after broke the Tenkan through to the 4600 OI where it reversed with impulse back to Tenkan. Bulls, this is likely a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is 1-2 of (i) completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple. From no fear to panic is the driving element.

On the downside the Kijun and those June lows now critical and is our trading Bear/Bull pivot in a high vol scenario. Watch each measured 3 wave move on the 240 & Murrey Math highlighted in the podcast. The prices pulled through the downward cloud pulled by the twist ‘helium contusion’ on the completive. For fractal purposes, SPX completed 5 waves up where it reversed with impulse. Energy fueled from the power impulse down from +1/8 ATH spit of a spit fail. On the way down (just like up) it accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then through the median after tapping 8/8.

Weekly: The SPX has a clear channel off the lows on the weekly timeframe off the sphere of influence and has ground higher since it closed over the cloud above the Tenkan. Key support is the Tenkan, channel and +1/8. Power initially came from launching out of the sphere of influence as one would expect in a 3 or C. We had the Kijun spit also. Above is the channel and +3/8.

In the bigger picture we are playing out S&P 500 energy after it held the sphere of influence from Nov 2020 reversed higher after spitting the 38% and key lows. At the time we opined “We do have a weekly cloud twist; however, the energy is waning without sharp impulse.” We got the sharp impulse right to weekly Kijun. For major cycles we watch the S&P 500 over 4,231, the 50% retracement of losses from the Jan. 3 & June 16 close. Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement then gone on to make new cycle lows. Is this time different, as we tested and spat those June lows?

On the way up each new high evolved after testing Tenkan key support on the way and we are now getting a retest as resistance. We reiterate this needs to be recovered for a resumption of the uptrend meanwhile the bear market plays out. Watch Tenkan this week and watch for Kijun reaction. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.

THE KEY: Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets

NASDAQ 100

The down move saw Nasdaq spit the weekly Kijun and a 1-2 off tenkan we spat MM 5/8 after holding the key 61.8% Fib. We watch the Tenkan & Kijun confluence above, the breakup level and between the 38/50 Fibs. The Nasdaq is well behind the S&P pace with the weekly cloud and 50wma well above. Support the 61.8% retest.

Recall ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.

Dow Jones

The Dow led the indices and closed above the weekly Tenkan after closing and testing last week. Prior test after the reaction off the June lows and sphere of influence. Support is the channel and Fibs. Tenkan and Kijun after the reaction empowered. Support is the channel and Fibs.

Russell 2000

The small cap Russell RUT bounced in double bottom off 1600 5/8 confluence which was the Nov 2020 breakup. Russell 2000 Resistance Tenkan and Kijun, note previous rejections. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. 7/8 & 8/8 support collapsed on the way down and is now major resistance.

Semiconductors

NVidia $NVDA

NVidia surged 179.3% in H1 2023. It has been relentless since earnings and is the focus of the AI craze. With all manic moves beware of the pullbacks and topping potential. That said the extensions have played out and so far to +2/8 on the weekly. This was a classic set up as we can see. It has a textbook of KnovaWave methodology and rules from the 61.8% break and reverse through the sphere. NVDA accelerated after it broke the double top spheres at 5/8 giving is a near 4/8 move. A reminder that the dominance was in.

NVDA took off after the breakup retest from May 2021. NVidia is a clear leader of SOX & SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes. NVDA never looked back after the Key Break (mauve) and Tenkan to a flat cloud and holding support the recent low at the 61.8% extension.

Apple $AAPL

Apple has consistently driven upwards after it held the sphere of influence after retesting 6/8 & break up. Kijun and Tenkan crossing and then the 50wma with the cloud twist have been magnetic. Apple & other mega-cap names dominant the major indices, and a plethora of funds that hold it as a core position. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) delta is important to watch.

A firm rejection at $175 at +2/8 triggered a waterfall down for Apple last year. We regathered that and more and broke the weekly bull flag higher. On the way up Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level on the way down these levels became key energy levels all the way to $132. Support held at the May break (just like NVDA) where from there it spat the cloud pulled by a flat Tenkan and Kijun as it rebalanced Chikou. The old channel break and MM +2/8 is now key. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.

ARKK ETF

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) finally found some support at -1/8, 78% off highs and the 423.6% extension! The ARK Innovation ETF returned 29% for Q1 2023. The fund is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, it has not been a pretty slide. For the quarter, Nasdaq Computer Index up 25.7% and the NYSE Arca Technology Index gaining 26.1%. The Nasdaq100 (NDX) jumped 20.5%.

The ARKK ETF trading clinically, tested triangle breakdown and failed off 50 WMA. Some work at support at 61.8% of whole move and then wrecked again. Clear crowd behavior, we saw ATH in NASDAQ & SPX, yet this couldn’t raise a bid – very telling negative divergence. $ARKK rebalanced Chikou at week’s end

ExxonMobil XOM

XOM has completed 5 waves from -3/8 to +3/8 on the weekly. with a double top. Alternatives 5 complete of degree. We are in a 1-2 (A-B depending on degree. Support is the cloud which has held 3 times since the high and the 50WMA resistance the tenkan and Kijun. Pattern wise we are in the bull flag until proven otherwise.

Part B: Bond Markets

Bond Watch

Treasuries

U.S. Treasuries in a volatile week saw the 5-yr note and shorter tenors reclaim some of their losses from Thursday after the stronger than expected ADP employment report was tempered by a much tamer BLS jobs report. However, the 10s and 30s added to this week’s losses.

The 2-yr note recovered Thursday’s entire loss, continuing this week’s outperformance, which alleviated some pressure on the 2s10s spread, widening it by 17 bps to -89 bps. We get more volatility next week with the latest CPI report and Beige Book on the docket.

Treasury Yield Watch

Friday/Week

• 2-yr: -7 bps to 4.94% (+6 bps for the week)
• 3-yr: -6 bps to 4.65% (+16 bps for the week)
• 5-yr: -3 bps to 4.34% (+21 bps for the week)
• 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.05% (+23 bps for the week)
• 30-yr: +3 bps to 4.03% (+17 bps for the week)

For our complete Weekly Fixed Interest Analysis and Outlook visit our Bond Traders Weekly Outlook:

Mortgage Market

• Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates gained seven bps to 6.70% (up 100bps y-o-y).
• Fifteen-year rates rose eight bps to 6.11% (up 128bps).
• Five-year hybrid ARM rates increased 10 bps to 6.22% (up 172bps).
• Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up 13 bps to 7.20% (up 142bps).

Part C: Commodities

Highlights

• Bloomberg Commodities Index increased 0.4% (down 9.7% y-t-d).
• Spot Gold added 0.3% to $1,925 (up 5.5%).
• Silver rallied 1.5% to $23.09 (up 3.6%).
• WTI crude recovered $3.39, or 4.8%, to $73.83 (down 8%).
• Gasoline fell 1.7% (up 5%),
• Natural Gas dropped 7.2% to $2.58 (down 42%).
• Copper increased 0.5% (down 1%).
• Wheat recovered 0.5% (down 19%),
• Corn increased 0.8% (down 17%).
• Bitcoin was little changed this week at $30,350 (up 83%).

Key Long Term Commodity Charts

Copper

Gold

China added to its gold reserves for an eighth consecutive month. People’s Bank of China holdings of bullion rose by 680,000 troy ounces last month, according to official data released Friday. That’s equivalent to 23 tons.

Energy

For complete Oil and Natural Gas Coverage please visit our dedicated publications ‘Around the Barrel’ and ‘Into the Vortex.’ – Weekly Analysis and Outlook for Energy Traders and Investors

WTI Oil

Natural Gas

BDI Freight Index

For our complete Weekly Commodity Analysis and Outlook visit our Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook:

Charts and commentary via KnovaWave on:

• Grains: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans
• Metals: Copper, Aluminum
• Precious Metals: Gold Silver
• Lumber
• Oil and Natural gas are covered separately (see below)

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Highlights

• For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.7% to 102.27 (down 1.2% y-t-d). 2022 gains were 8.2%
• For the week on the upside, the Japanese yen increased 1.5%, the New Zealand dollar 1.4%, the Norwegian krone 1.1%, the British pound 1.1%, the South Korean won 1.0%, the Swiss franc 0.8%, the euro 0.5%, the Singapore dollar 0.4% and the Australian dollar 0.4%. The Chinese (onshore) renminbi increased 0.39% versus the dollar (down 4.52%).
• On the downside, the Brazilian real declined 1.8%, the Canadian dollar 0.2%, the Swedish krona 0.2%, the Mexican peso 0.1%, and the South African rand 0.1%.

For our complete Forex Weekly Analysis and Outlook visit our Forex Traders Weekly Outlook:

Charts and commentary via KnovaWave on the US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Euro Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Turkish Lira, Mexican Peso. Currency dynamics are complex. There are myriad facets to analyze and contemplate that influence all markets.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to be plaything of levered speculators, this week we saw the markets turn against those short. Where did this come from? Forced coverage from yield curve punts blowing up. Yen shorts and levered “carry trades” at risk.

It had been a churn following the FTX collapse. BTC had been stuck in the sphere of influence in continuation awaiting a catalyst, and it came. Continues to perform technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. $BTC tested the top of a rising channel after the preceding sharp downturn which was the downside breakout of an earlier bearish flag, after breaking downside a H&S top and then down it went….

Recall Bitcoin exploded higher following it’s correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.

Looking back Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking. The high over $68,000 came after the launch over the Bitcoin ETF. From that high we have 2 main alternatives a V of a 1 of a V. For bears it a completive five with impulse right to the 50wma – an incredible 26% fall in a Friday night session. That’s impulse!

Ethereum

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

 Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Banks

Major US Banks for Q2, 2023

America’s big money center banks kick of second quarter earnings next week. There will be extra attention on them with the recent banking turmoil. Guidance will be keenly watched for from the money center banks. Concerns are rising over the banking sector’s exposure to commercial real estate. Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan (JPM), State Street (STT) and BlackRock (BLK), reporting Q2 results on Friday.

Q123 Reports

• Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Revenue Rose 11% While Investment Banking Revenue Fell 24%
• Goldman Sachs Revenues Miss, Discloses Losses in Marcus and Real Estate
• Bank of America Earnings Benefiting from Higher Interest Rates and Solid Loan Growth
• Wells Fargo Earnings Higher with Net Interest Income Up 45% on Higher Rates
• PNC Bank Earnings Beat Expectations but Lowered 2023 Revenue Guidance
• What Banking Crisis? JPMorgan Shrugs, Record Lending Income and Revenue
• Citigroup Personal Banking Revenue and Indian Exit Boost Earnings

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

What Macro and Micro Risks and Opportunities Lie Ahead this week

Global Watch

Next Week’s Risk Dashboard via Scotiabank

• BoC: Why Hike? Why Not?!!
• The Q2 US bank earnings season
• US CPI: watch the twin core measures
• RBNZ, Peru and BoK expected to hold
• A dovish week for China data
• UK job markets still on a tear?

Central Bank Watch

In the week ahead we get the Bank of Canada’s policy decision on Wednesday plus other central banks RBNZ, Peru and BoK.

Eyes and ears will be on central bankers. We have the backdrop of a more hawkish Fed Chair in the face of escalating systemic risk. How will this affect Fed policy given the massive treasury positions out there and the risk of uninsured funds? In this environment we get pivots daily. How much damage is the Federal Reserve willing to do in the guise of controlling inflation?

This Week’s Interest Rate Announcements (Time E.T.)

In the week ahead we get 4 central banks delivering policy decisions.

Tuesday, July 11, 2023

• 22:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

• 10:00 Bank of Canada interest rate announcement
• 21:00 Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 13, 2023

• 19:00 Peru Interest Rate Decision

For our complete Central Bank Analysis and Outlook visit our Central bank Watch:

Economic Data Watch

US Data Focus

• Monday: May Wholesale Inventories (prior -0.1%) at 10:00 ET and May Consumer Credit (prior $23.0 bln) at 15:00 ET
• Tuesday: June NFIB Small Business Optimism (prior 89.4) at 6:00 ET and $40 bln 3-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
• Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -4.4%) at 7:00 ET; June CPI (prior 0.1%) and Core CPI (prior 0.4%) at 8:30 ET; weekly crude oil inventories (prior -1.51 mln) at 10:30 ET; $32 bln 10-yr Treasury note reopening results at 13:00 ET; and July Fed Beige Book at 14:00 ET
• Thursday: Weekly Initial Claims (prior 248,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.720 mln), June PPI (prior -0.3%), and Core PPI (prior 0.2%) at 8:30 ET; weekly natural gas inventories (prior +72 bcf) at 10:30 ET; $18 bln 30-yr Treasury bond reopening results at 13:00 ET; and June Treasury Budget (prior -$240.30 bln) at 14:00 ET
• Friday: June Import Prices (prior -0.6%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior -0.1%), Export Prices (prior -1.9%), and Export Prices ex-agriculture (prior -1.8%) at 8:30 ET; and preliminary July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (prior 64.4) at 10:00 ET

Global Data Focus

• ASEAN foreign ministers and their counterparts from the US, China, Russia, and other key partners
• US President Biden visits Helsinki for a US-Nordic summit
• Far East Grain Forum 2023 in Vladivostok, Russia
• French President Emmanuel Macron hosts Indian PM Narendra Modi
• EU-Japan Summit in Brussels with an appearance from Japanese PM Kishida
• G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in India

• NATO: US President Joe Biden attends 74th NATO summit
• OPEC/IEA: OPEC MOMR EIA IES monthlies
• Canada: Canada rate decision, Existing home sales
• Brazil:
• Mexico: International reserves, industrial production
• Europe: Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations, Italy industrial production, Spain CPI, Eurozone industrial production France CPI, Italy trade, Poland CPI
• Russia: CPI
• Turkey: Current account, industrial production
• UK: Jobless claims, unemployment, industrial production
• China: China CPI, PPI, trade,
• Japan: Balance of payments, money stock, machine tool orders, PPI, machinery orders
• India: CPI, industrial production, trade, wholesale prices, industrial production
• South Korea:
• Australia: Australian Conference of Economists in Brisbane through Wednesday, German Chancellor Scholz, Australia’s Prime Minister Albanese joint news conference, consumer confidence,
• New Zealand: Home sales, New Zealand rate decision, food prices, manufacturing PMI

US Stocks Watch Earnings and Event Watch

Earnings Highlights This Week:

• Monday includes Saratoga Investment (SAR) Helen of Troy Limited (HELE), WD-40 Company (WDFC), PriceSmart (PSMT), E2open Parent Holdings (ETWO), and CalAmp (CAMP).
• Tuesday includes Byrna Technologies (BYRN)
• Wednesday includes MillerKnoll (MLKN) AngioDynamics (ANGO), Theratechnologies (THTX) and Ocean Power Technologies (OPTT).
• Thursday includes Delta Airlines (DAL) Fastenal Company (FAST), Wipro Limited (WIT), Conagra Brands (CAG), Educational Development (EDUC), Cintas (CTAS), PepsiCo (PEP), Progressive (PGR), Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), and Northern Technologies International (NTIC).
• Friday includes Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan (JPM), and State Street (STT) BlackRock (BLK), Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ERIC), Washington Federal (WAFD), Senmiao Technology Limited (AIHS).

Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Events

Notable conferences running during the week include:

Monday

• Phase 3 topline data being reported by Journey Medical Corporation (DERM) and Phase 4 PK data from Fortress Biotech (FBIO) on the safety of DFD-29.
• The 2nd Annual RNA Therapeutics Summit will include participation from Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), Avidity Biosciences (RNA), ProQR Therapeutics N.V. (PRQR), and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS).
• Sell-side analysts can begin to post ratings on CAVA Group (CAVA) following the expiration of the quiet period on the stock.
• 10:00 a.m. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak on bank supervision and capital rule.

Tuesday

• Novanta (NOVT), Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS), Materion Corporation (MTRN) will present at the CJS Securities New Ideas Summer Conference.
• Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime Day event will run for 45 hours alongside dueling shopping promotions from retailers such as Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Newegg Commerce (NEGG), Overstock.com (OSTK), Macy’s (M), and Best Buy (BBY).
• Daimler Truck (OTCPK:DTRUY) will hold its first Capital Markets Day as a standalone company. Deutsche Bank expects the German trucking giant to provide a tech update that includes profitability indicators for diesel versus electric trucks, as well as a roadmap until 2030.
• 8:30 a.m. REGENXBIO (RGNX) will host a virtual investor day.
• 8:30 a.m. ReWalk Robotics (RWLK) will host a conference call and webcast to discuss the recent proposal from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to include personal exoskeletons in the Medicare benefit category for braces.

Wednesday

• DoorDash (DASH), Just Eat Takeaway’s (OTCPK:JTKWY) Grubhub, and Uber Eats (UBER) on watch to see if a judge lifts or extends the temporary halt on new legislation covering minimum wages for delivery workers.
• The IPO lockup period expires on a block of shares of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group (SKWD).
• 10:00 a.m. Sprinklr (CXM) Investor Day event
• 12:35 p.m. Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP) will present at the Emerging Growth Conference.
• 4:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester will speak about FedNow. The FedNow real-time payment system is set for a late July launch and has signed on 57 financial institutions and service providers, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bank (USB), Fiserv (FI), and Jack Henry (JKHY). PayPal Holdings (PYPL) and Block (SQ) are stocks that could be impacted by FedNow in the future.

Thursday

• Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan is set to testify before the House Judiciary Committee for the first time. The hearing comes after House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) subpoenaed Khan in April for documents related to the agency’s alleged actions against Twitter.
• OPEC will publish its monthly Oil Market Report.
• Reed’s (OTCQX:REED) will participate in the upcoming OTC Markets Small Cap Growth Virtual Investor Conference.

Friday

• Rocket Lab (RKLB) scheduled to launch its Electron rocket for NASA’s Starling mission out of Launch Complex 1, Mahia Peninsula, New Zealand.
• Shareholders with Cadeler (OTCPK:CADLF) will vote on the all-stock merger Eneti (NETI) set to create a leading offshore wind turbine and foundation installation company.

Sovereign Rating Updates

• EFSF (Fitch)
• ESM (Fitch)
• Ireland (Fitch)
• Spain (Moody’s)
• Iceland (Moody’s)
• Austria (DBRS)

IPO Wrap

US IPO Week Ahead:

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2022.

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