Traders Market Weekly: Independence, Precious and Formative

July 4 – July 10, 2022

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

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The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?

Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

Editorial

Heading into the July 4 long weekend stock markets started off the second half of the year on a positive note. US markets will be shut on Monday for the July 4th Independence Day holiday. For the week however the S&P 500 fell 2.2% this week and the Nasdaq Composite lost 4.1%. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) was down 4.4%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 9.6% and is now down 37.7% for the year.

To that end semiconductor maker Micron (MU) lowered fiscal Q4 (Aug) revenue and EPS guidance after Thursday’s close that was well below consensus estimates and which it attributed to a weaker demand environment for smartphones and PCs. The world’s biggest chip foundry Taiwan Semi (TSM) said they have seen major clients reduce their orders. Many of the SOX index components set new 52-week lows along with Micron.  Other chip stocks that reached new lows were stalwarts NVIDIA (NVDA 145.23, -6.36, -4.2%), Intel (INTC 36.34, -1.07, -2.9%), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 73.67, -2.80, -3.7%).

H1 2022 Nasdaq Tech Wreck

The first half of the year was brutal with inflation rammed into our faces with higher rates and now the watch is on for signs of a potential recession as interest rates around the globe rise. A heavy data and news bite week with the US jobs report, FOMC minutes, ECB President Lagarde, the RBA interest rate decision, Global Service PMIs indices and inflation just some catalysts.

Independence – Never Take It for Granted Traders

“In aggregate, the market goes from order to disorder, and on that journey little pockets of order can form, including in commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies that circle back and reorder disorder. Then there is us the market player that reflects through order and disorder in an ever-evolving loop towards independence. It all starts with gravity and ends with equilibrium and back we go.” KnovaWave “The rules of market flux”

Energy stocks saw some recovery after the massive bout of profit taking, the S&P 500 energy sector gained 1.3% and the S&P 500 utilities sector popped 4.1% with the S&P 500 health care and consumer staples sectors up 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Cryptocurrencies continued their tour of destruction after the SEC blocked Grayscale’s bid to turn its bitcoin fund into a spot ETF. In the treasury market the yield on the 2-yr note fell 23 basis points to 2.83% while the yield on the 10-yr note dropped 24 basis points to 2.89%. Bonds strengthened on weaker economic data disappointing economic data.

This week we saw weaker-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index for June that featured the lowest reading for the Expectations Index (66.4) since March 2013 and a rise in the year-ahead inflation expectation to 8.0% from 7.5%. The Personal Income and Spending Report for May featured a 0.4% decline in real personal spending and the core PCE price index dropped year-over-year to 4.7% from 4.9% in April, and the softest ISM Manufacturing PMI reading for June (53.1%) since June 2020. May saw total construction spending fall in the U.S. 1% month-over-month in May (consensus was expecting a gain of 0.4%). The fall was more dramatic when you consider an upwardly revised 0.8% increase (from 0.2%) in April. Housing starts were down -14.4% month-over-month in May.

This week also brought the first half of the year to a close and confirmed, if you needed it, how brutal the selling has been. The S&P 500 fell 20.6% through January to June 30, 2022, suffering its worst first half of a year since 1970 when it declined 21.0%. The technology heavy Nasdaq Composite was hit harder, it crashed to its worst first half yearly performance in its existence. Interest rates did the damage, investment-grade bonds, as measured by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond exchange-traded fund, lost 11%, their worst start to a year in history. 

WTI crude futures dropped to $101.53/bbl on Wednesday before rebounding to $107.65/bbl on Friday, down fractionally for the week. Copper futures traded as low as $3.64/lb on Friday (down 9.2% for the week) before settling the day at $3.74/lb.

Key Rates and Spreads

Rates

  • 10-year Treasury bonds 2.89%, down -0.24 w/w (1-yr range: 1.08-3.48)
  • Credit spread 2.40%, up +0.24 w/w (1-yr range: 1.65-4.31)
  • BAA corporate bond index 5.29%, unchanged w/w (1-yr range: 3.13-5.48)
  • 30-Year conventional mortgage rate 5.50%, down -0.35% w/w (1-yr range 2.75-6.28)
Mortgage News Daily July 1 2022

Yield Curve

  • 10-year minus 2-year: +0.05%, down -0.03 w/w (1-yr range -0.12 – 1.59)
  • 10-year minus 3-month: +1.44%, down -0.16% w/w (1-yr range -0.99 – 2.04)
  • 2-year minus Fed funds: +1.19%, down -0.28% w/w

Instability is pronounced, U.S. high-yield CDS sank 47 bps this week, reversing the previous week’s 44 bps surge. Investment-grade CDS declined six bps after jumping eight. While generally declining a couple basis points, bank CDS prices were notable for reversing only a fraction of the previous week’s surge.

Bond Funds Dumped

“The latest slump in US municipal bonds has sent investors fleeing a part of the $4 trillion market where they typically park cash to maintain short-term exposure and wait out periods of uncertainty. Muni exchange-traded funds have seen roughly $1.7 billion in outflows this month, on pace for the largest exodus since March 2020…” June 21 – Bloomberg (Fola Akinnibi):

Huge bond fund outflows continue. Investment-grade bond funds saw hefty outflows of $7.451 billion, and junk bond funds recorded negative flows of $2.625 billion (from Lipper). The pace hasn’t let up since global investors resumed selling bond funds in the week to June 8… Investors pulled $9.46 billion out of global bond funds in the week, after purchases of $7.2 billion in the previous week-the only weekly inflow since March 30, Refinitiv Lipper data showed.”

“U.S. bond funds witnessed massive outflows in the week to June 8 after a weekly inflow… According to Refinitiv Lipper…, investors withdrew $7.61 billion out of U.S. bond funds after the purchases of $7.09 billion in the previous week, which was the only weekly inflow since Jan 5.” June 10 – Reuters (Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy

Oil prices have continued to push higher since US continues to drain it’s SPR which have not alleviated product shortages and the headline risk around the EU phasing out Russian oil by year end. The EIA reported distillates stocks are at 14yr low as demand for jet fuel and diesel take off. Padd 1 diesel inventories are at 25-year lows.

The rubber is meeting the road as the trifecta of rising interest rates, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and surging costs continues to weigh, this has been no surprise to us here and shouldn’t have been to the market and PTB. You can only play with fire for so long before you get scorched!

Inflation Matters

Fed Chair Powell told an ECB Forum this week that the importance of fighting inflation is worth the risk of slowing economic activity too much since failing to restore price stability would be the bigger mistake.

US consumer inflation continues to rise, prices for energy jumped 34.6% from a year earlier, the cost of groceries rose 11.9% on the year. Shelter costs also accelerated higher. Real Earnings are declining at a rapid rate. CPI in May rose+1.0% vs +0.7% expected m/m. Core CPI rose 0.6% (consensus +0.5%). The dollar rose to a three-week high after the inflation data release. The bond and stock markets began selling off on inflation fears yesterday. 10-year yields rising over 3%.

Energy prices rose 34.6%, the most since September of 2005 and food costs surged 10.1%, the first increase of 10 percent or more since the period ending March 1981.

Food prices have been almost vertical for the past year, though we have seen a respite in the past few months. World food prices as measured by the FAO Food Price Index dropped 0.6% on the month to 157.4 in May 2022. It was the second month of declines, though still sitting just under the record high 159.7 from March. Price falls were seen in the vegetable oil index (-3.5%), dairy price index (-3.5%) and the sugar price index (-1.1%). Price rises were seen in the cereal price index (+2.2%) and meat prices (+0.5%).

The market seems to go through phases of trading on the premise that the US is at or close to, peak inflation. The shock will come if better inflation news in coming months is not coming. The PCE price index is closely watched since it is the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, which has begun raising interest rates last month for the first time since the pandemic began to tamp down rising prices.

With all the redirection of blame at the Fed about inflation one has to understand it is a global phenomenon outside the Fed’s Control. With the war drums louder than ever the supply chain issues are out of control. The Federal Reserve is not in control of global energy and commodities prices.

Everything points to powerful inflationary dynamics and a Federal Reserve so far “behind the curve.”

The Fed has kicked off its first real tightening campaign since 1994, with securities markets already at the brink of illiquidity and dislocation. Markets could soon be screaming for assurances of the Fed’s “buyer of last resort” liquidity backstop, while the Fed is prepared to begin withdrawing liquidity by selling Treasuries and MBS. .

 Here is a dose of reality. or was it all just money laundering?

“The nonfungible token of Jack Dorsey’s first tweet, which sold for $2.9 million last year to Sina Estavi, failed to garner much in the way of interest when it was recently put up for resale, Coindesk reports. The auction for the NFT closed with only seven offers ranging from just 0.0019 Ether to 0.09 ETH, or about $6 to about $280. A far cry from the $48 million sought by the owner.”

April 13 – Bloomberg (Patrick McHale)

Another important aspect is the Fed doesn’t Control corporate pricing or wage decisions. Let us be clear geopolitical, climate change developments and what an out of depth, politically motivated administration are outside the Fed’s sphere of influence. There has been over $5.1 Trillion new “money” in 126 weeks, it’s a reasonable conclusion the Fed has lost control of Inflation.

Volatility

The VOLX`s underlying instrument is the Mini VIX™ Future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility. The VIX is calculated using a formula to derive expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of out-of-the-money puts and calls (options) on the S&P 500.

Monetary inflation is running wild. In 2021 Federal Reserve Credit expanded $1.391 TN or 19% to a record $8.742 TN. The Fed’s balance sheet inflated a mindboggling $5.015 TN, or 135%, in the 120 weeks since QE was restarted in September 2019. Federal Reserve Assets have now inflated 10 times since the mortgage finance Bubble collapse.

We need to grasp all the risks to be wary off and received plenty of flak from it. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focused on the crowd psychology aspect over the past few weeks.

We are in an openly hawkish phase since late last year when the New York Fed president John Williams, who is a voting member continued with his hawkish tilt of late. He said we are seeing broader based increases in inflation. Fed Governor Bullard told US Core PCE Is “Quite High” and added that the Fed should take towards a more hawkish policy in the next couple of meetings. Then we had Fed Governor Christopher Waller say the rapid improving job market and deteriorating inflation data have pushed him towards favoring a faster pace of tapering and more rapid removal of accommodation.

“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”

– MoneyNeverSleeps

Our weekly reminder for risk, timely given the V shape surge in commodities just a week. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.


PART A – Stock Markets

Weekly Highlights – USA

Indices

  • S&P500 fell 2.2% (down 19.7% y-t-d)
  • Dow declined 1.3% (down 14.4%)
  • S&P 400 Midcaps declined 1.6% (down 19.2%)
  • Small cap Russell 2000 fell 2.2% (down 23.1%)
  • Nasdaq100 dropped 4.3% (down 29.0%)
Major US Stock Indices

Sectors

  • Utilities surged 4.2% (down 0.3%).
  • Banks lost 2.4% (down 22.4%)
  • Broker/Dealers slumped 1.9% (down 21.2%).
  • Transports fell 1.9% (down 19.4%).
  • Semiconductors sank 9.6% (down 37.7%).
  • Biotechs were little changed (down 14.0%).
  • With bullion down $20, the HUI gold index fell 4.6% (down 12.3%).
11 Sector SPDRs as well as the 500 component stocks last week.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

Major US Indices

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

US Markets YTD

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -14.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: -19.7% YTD
  • S&P 400: -19.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -23.1% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -28.9% YTD

Global Stock Market Highlights

Highlights – Europe Stocks

  • U.K.’s FTSE -0.6% (down 2.9% y-t-d).
  • France’s CAC40 tumbled 2.2% (down 17.1%).
  • German DAX equities Index lost 2.3% (down 19.3%).
  • Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index dipped 0.8% (down 6.2%).
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB index dropped 3.5% (down 21.9%). 

Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.

 Highlights – Asia Stocks

  • Japan’s Nikkei: fell 2.1% (down 9.9% y-t-d).
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.7% for the week
  • South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 2.6% (down 22.6%)
  • India’s Sensex equities index increased 0.3% (down 9.2%)
  • China’s Shanghai Exchange Index gained 1.1% (down 6.9%) 

 Highlights – Australian Stocks

  • The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.43 per cent, or 28.2 points, to 6539.9 on Friday, a weekly loss of 0.6 per cent.
  • Iron ore futures traded in Singapore fell 3.5 per cent to $US114.80 a tonne for the August contract.

The Australian ASX 200 Stock Market Closed Up 13% in 2021 With Lithium Plays Starring

 Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks 

EM equities wobbled.

  • Brazil’s Bovespa index increased 0.3% (down 5.6% YTD)
  • Mexico’s Bolsa index was little changed (down 10.3%)
  • Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index slumped 4.3% (up 31.6%).
  • Russia’s MICEX equities index sank 7.7% (down 41.7%).

Technical Analysis

S&P 500

Daily: SPX500 performed a perfect competitive wave last week at record fear and bear extremes. From there we rallied through the daily tanken to close at the Kijun by week’s end had completed a perfect measured 3 wave move on the 240 Murrey Math highlighted in the podcast. We bounced through the downward channel pulled by the twist ‘helium contusion’ on the completive.

Recall the fuel from the top of the channel after completing 3 waves off ATH, accelerated after broke the Tenkan through to the 4600 OI where it reversed with impulse back to Tenkan Bulls this a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is 1-2 of (i) completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun and watch for ABC. From no fear to panic is the driving element.

Recall SPX completed 5 waves up where it reversed with impulse with energy fueled from the power impulse down from +1/8 ATH spit of a spit fail. On the way down (just like up) it accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then through the median after tapping 8/8.

Daily S&P 500 3 waves

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the Tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in

Weekly:

The S&P failed to continue through last week’s lows and re3versed to fill the gap and closed right above it. The flat weekly Kijun acted as a magnet as the Spoos blasted back up through the wave iii or C lows. Each new high evolved after testing Tenkan key support on the way and we are now getting a retest as resistance. We reiterate this needs to be recovered for a resumption of the uptrend meanwhile the bear market plays out. Watch Tenkan this week and watch for Kijun reaction. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.

S&P500 Weekly Outlook

Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat  “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets

Dow Jones

The Dow tested its weekly up channel after bouncing back to test the Tenkan and Kijun we watch for the reaction here. Resistance is the channel, support the cloud and previous breakups.

DJIA Weekly

NASDAQ 100

Since the Nasdaq spat the weekly cloud from MM 6/8 and broke Tenkan confluence with the cloud top and Kijun above it has sold off. Immediate resistance is this confluence. It continues to battle between the 38/50 Fibs.

Recall ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.

NASDAQ Record Highs

Russell 2000

The small cap Russell RUT had been developing a large flag which it did a false break to fuel the selling from there we replicated to the down (Adam’s theory).

Russell 2000 low-price tested the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 2020 low before bouncing higher.

Unlike SPX we could not get through Tenkan and Kijun which rejected the bounce highlighting its weakness. However, like the NASDAQ we broke above the tenkan. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Closed right in the middle of the cloud. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. 8/8 support collapsed and is now major resistance.

Russell Index Negative Divergence to NASDAQ

Semiconductors SMH

Semiconductors SMH clean with reaction from above reverted with the retest & break of the triple top patterning in a pennant. Pull from Chip Shortage players $ON $TSM $NVDA $ASML $AMD $QCOM $AVGO $TXN $INTC $AMAT $LRCX $XLNX

VanEck Vectors Semiconductors ETF

NVidia $NVDA

NVidia got through another earnings week, which for now signaled the low at 5/8 and the breakup retest from May 2021. NVidia is a clear leader of #SOX #SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes. Above is the Key Break (mauve) and Tenkan to a flat cloud. Support the recent low.

Nvidia NVDA stock chart

Apple $AAPL

On the way up Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level on the way down these levels became key energy levels all the way to $132. Support held at the May break (just like NVDA) where from there it spat the cloud pulled by a flat Tenkan and Kijun as it rebalanced Chikou. It closed right at the old channel break and MM 8/8 which is now key. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.

Apple AAPL Stock Chart

ARKK ETF

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) finally found some support at -1/8 and the 423.6% extension! The fund is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, it has not been a pretty slide.

The ARKK ETF trading clinically, tested triangle breakdown and failed off 50 WMA. Some work at support at 61.8% of whole move and then wrecked again. Clear crowd behavior, we saw ATH in NASDAQ & SPX, yet this couldn’t raise a bid – very telling negative divergence. $ARKK rebalanced Chikou at week’s end

Ark ARKK ETF Stock Chart

US Stocks Watch

Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Earnings Highlights This Week:

Monday includes

  • July Fourth holiday Markets closed

Tuesday includes

  • No noteworthy earnings.

Wednesday includes

  • Aeon AONNY Saratoga Investment SAR Simulations Plus SLP

Thursday includes

  • Helen of Troy HELE Kewpie KWPCY Levi Strauss & Co. LEVI WD-40 WDFC

Friday includes

  • No noteworthy earnings.

“U.S. companies are rushing to cash in on soaring stock prices. It isn’t just the white-hot market for initial public offerings. Companies are returning to the public markets to issue shares and raise cash from investors at the same time that existing shareholders are tapping the public market to unload their stockholdings at a record clip. Companies including Zoom Video Communications Inc. and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. have sold billions of dollars of shares this year… There have been 556 follow-on offerings, or stock sales by companies or existing shareholders, among U.S. companies this year, the most since 1996, according to Dealogic… They have raised a total of $133 billion. Behind the boom in share issuance? An ascendant stock market.”  August 25 – Wall Street Journal (Gunjan Banerji):

IPO Wrap

US IPO Week Ahead:

Onfolio (NASDAQ:ONFO) is expected to start trading in the U.S. on July 29. In Asia, Chinese podcasting startup Ximalaya is considering launching its planned Hong Kong IPO as soon as next week.

Quiet period expirations for Zhong Yang Financial Group (TOP), with the first analyst ratings expected to follow the expiration of the analyst quiet period.


Part B: Bond Markets

Inflation with Henry Kaufman

Kaufman is the legendary chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers is someone who knows Inflation.  Henry Kaufman in an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker Jan 14, 2022:

 “I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”

“The longer the Fed takes to tackle a high rate of inflation, the more inflationary psychology is embedded in the private sector — and the more it will have to shock the system.”

“‘It’s dangerous to use the word transitory,’ Kaufman said. ‘The minute you say transitory, it means you’re willing to tolerate some inflation.’ That, he said, undermines the Fed’s role of maintaining economic and financial stability to achieve ‘reasonable non-inflationary growth.’”

Highlights – Treasuries

“This is shaping up to be the most volatile year for Treasuries in over a decade, as uncertainty about the impact of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening whipsaws yields. The yield on 10-year US notes has traded in a range of at least 10 bps in 50 of 95 trading days so far in 2022. That puts it on track for an annual rate of more than 130 episodes, which would be the highest since 2009.”

May 18 – Bloomberg (Garfield Reynolds)

Investment-grade bond funds suffered outflows of $3.644 billion, and junk bond funds posted negative flows of $1.593 billion (from Lipper).

U.S. Treasuries of most tenors ended the week with their third consecutive day of strong gains. The 2-yr note yield fell ten basis points to 2.83%. The 10-yr note yield fell eight basis points to 2.89%. The long bond underperformed, ending just above its flat line.

Yield Watch

  • 2-yr: -10 bps to 2.83% (-23 bps for the week)
  • 3-yr: -13 bps to 2.85% (-30 bps for the week)
  • 5-yr: -12 bps to 2.88% (-30 bps for the week)
  • 10-yr: -8 bps to 2.89% (-24 bps for the week)
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 3.11% (-15 bps for the week)

All good until markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported record corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity, funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. The combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushed strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.

Highlights – Mortgage Market

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped 11 bps to 5.70% (up 272bps y-o-y).
  • Fifteen-year rates fell nine bps to 4.83% (up 257bps).
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates rose nine bps to 4.50% (up 196bps) – the high back to September 2009.
  • Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates down 11 bps to 5.78% (up 270bps).

Highlights – Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Credit last week declined $11.2bn to $8.890 TN. Over the past 146 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $5.163 TN, or 139%.
  • Fed Credit inflated $6.079 Trillion, or 216%, over the past 503 weeks.
  • Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week dropped $12.4bn to $3.391 TN
  • “Custody holdings” were down $132bn, or 3.7%, y-o-y.
  • Total money market fund assets declined $12bn to $4.531 TN. Total money funds were up $4bn, or 0.1%, y-o-y.
  • Total Commercial Paper jumped $26.1bn to a six-month high $1.170 TN. CP was up $61bn, or 5.5%, over the past year.

Highlights – European Bonds

The German bund yields have dropped 65 bps in 13 sessions (June 16 intraday highs), with yields down a notable 21 bps this week. Swiss 10-year yields slumped 43 bps this week to a one-month low 0.81%. UK yields dropped 22 bps. European periphery yields have collapsed since June 14th. Italian yields sank another 37 bps this week and are down 110 bps from June 14th highs. Greek yields fell 27 bps this week (down 124 bps from June 14th highs), with yields this week sinking 25 bps in Portugal (down 85bps) and 28 bps in Spain (down 93bps).

  • Greek 10-year yields fell 27 bps to 3.49% (up 218bps y-t-d).
  • Ten-year Portuguese yields dropped 25 bps to 2.27% (up 181bps).
  • Italian 10-year yields sank 37 bps to 3.09% (up 192bps).
  • Spain’s 10-year yields dropped 28 bps to 2.27% (up 171bps).
  • German bund yields fell 21 bps to 1.23% (up 141bps).
  • French yields declined 18 bps to 1.80% (up 160bps).
  • The French to German 10-year bond spread widened three to 57 bps.
  • U.K. 10-year gilt yields dropped 22 bps to 2.09% (up 112bps).

Highlights – Asian Bonds

  • Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields were unchanged at 0.23% (up 16bps y-t-d).

Federal Reserve Gives All Banks a Pass in Annual Bank Stress Test

The Federal Reserve released its annual bank stress test after the market close Thursday. All 34 large banks tested remained well above their risk-based minimum capital requirements, and the Fed announced no restrictions relating to dividends and buybacks. With the dismal state of the economy through soaring inflation and record low consumer sentiment these tests were keenly watched. Banks suffered slightly more hypothetical losses in the 2022 severe test than last year, posting $612 billion in projected losses as capital ratios fell to 9.7%. Read More Here.


Part C: Commodities

Highlights

  • Bloomberg Commodities Index slumped 3.4% (up 18.1% y-t-d).
  • Spot Gold declined 1.1% to $1,827 (down 1.2%).
  • Silver dropped 6.2% to $19.85 (down 14.8%).
  • WTI crude added 79 cents to $108.41 (up 44%).
  • Gasoline dropped 5.6% (up 65%),
  • Natural Gas sank 8.4% (up 53%).
  • Copper fell 3.4% (down 19%).
  • Wheat sank 10.2% (up 9%),
  • Corn dropped 9.9% (up 2%).
  • Bitcoin sank $1,700, or 8.0%, this week to $19,570 (down 58%).

Risk markets continue to respond to the war in Ukraine and the supply crisis from the Coronavirus outbreak and lockdowns.

BDI Freight Index

  • The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index fell on Friday 23 points, or about 1%, to 2,331 pressured by a drop in rates across vessel segments . The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels was down 9.6% for the week.
  • The capesize index lost 23 points, or 1%, to 2,396. The index shed nearly 19.8% this week, its worst drop since May 27.
  • Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, fell $186 to $19,875.
  • The panamax index fell 37 points, or 1.4%, to 2,695 points, notching a weekly decline of 5.8%. Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000-70,000 tonnes, decreased by $338 to $24,254.
  • The supramax index for smaller vessels shed 17 points to 2,449.

Source: Baltic Sea Freight Index Fell Another 9.6% This Week as the Capesize index plunged 19.8% – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Baltic Dry Index Weekly

Aluminum (Alcoa)

We analyze Alcoa as a surrogate to Aluminum given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.

We have seen $AA retest the previous high after the +3 Spit as the Chikou rebalanced. We have the Gap below at +1/8 confluence. We move to 240 for this pennant resolution.

Alcoa

Copper

Copper rebounded sharply off the 50wma but again has failed on the cloud spit and channel break. The flattening Weekly Tenkan and Kijun acted as a magnet to close right there. #HG power spits have quickly rebalanced back into the wide channel. Copper had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities.

Weekly Copper Outlook
Copper Supply Crunch

Lumber

Lumber prices were a leading indicator of the supply-chain problems and inflation that followed pandemic lockdowns.

Lumber futures for July delivery ended Friday at $695.10 per thousand board feet, down 52% from a high in early March. On-the-spot wood prices have plunged, too. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks cash sales, fell about 12% last week to end at $794. That is down from $1,334 in March, just before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.

Lumber Futures

Grains

USDA June 30 Acreage Report

USDA released one of the most influential reports for commodities Thursday morning, the June 30 Acreage report. The most significant point was corn again the largest crop produced in America in 2022. USDA raised 2022 acreage expectations for corn by 431,000 acres from the March 31. Markets pared some of their earlier morning’s losses on the news. The announcement reversed USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report which had projected higher soybean acreage relative to corn for only the third time in U.S. history.

USDA June 30 Acreage Report Shows Corn the Largest Crop Produced in America in 2022 – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Wheat

KnovaWave analyze US Wheat futures given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.

Wheat continued its sharp impulsive collapse fueled from when it retested and broke the Tenkan (orange). This came about after a failure at retesting the 8/8 move and high after it spat 8/8, and the minimum target. We completed a measured 4/8 correction off highs then broke key support at 38% then 50% and 50wma confluence in the freefall. From here Wheat support comes it at that $800 confluence with the breakup level at 61.8% and the cloud. Resistance at Kijun and Tenkan.

Wheat ETF WEAT

Full Report: Wheat Futures Prices Fall Another 10.2% For the Week, Russian Production Forecast to Rise 13% – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Corn

Corn rally topped out at the highest since 2012 in Chicago at +1/8 and has corrected back to break the Tenkan which it swiftly regained after bouncing off 720, which also the price successfully retested the high from April 2021. From here we Tenkan failed again. Support is at the Kijun 7/8 confluence.

Corn Futures Outlook

Full Report: Corn Futures Selling Picked up Speed Around USDA Planted Acres and Quarterly Stocks Report – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Soybeans

Soybeans broke down from the bull pennant framed by +4/8 and +1/8 with the Kijun unable to sustain support right at the breakout. Support at the 50wma gave way to under the futures pivot at $15/bushel benchmarks. Pressure came from futures spitting the Weekly +4/8 over $17.50/bushel three times. Support is the Cloud just over the 6/8 and the January breakup. The weekly cloud and Murray mingle around the $14.6/bushel benchmark are massive.

Soybeans Weekly Outlook

Full Report: Soybean Prices Sell Off after Demand Concerns in USDA’s Acreage Report and Midwestern Forecasts – TRADERS COMMUNITY

Energy

US Crude Oil (WTI)

Daily:

Another big week for oil, but this time to the downside. On Friday WTI fell more than $7.00 past its 50-day moving average (109.36) to its lowest level in nearly four weeks. The price has been corrective after hitting our initial 8/8 target retest completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a grinding ABC or 1 of 3 higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +2/8 and 161.8% Fib retest. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid.

On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above

WTI Daily KnovaWave

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly:

WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off to the Kijun. That was after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Risk support is the grid. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 100% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)

WTI Weekly KnovaWave Shape

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

Oil Price Recovery

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Daily:

US Natural Gas has continued higher after it completed 3 waves correcting the daily 8/8 spit correction to -2/8. Two clear alternatives, we are correcting the highs 5 or that was a 3 and we go higher. We closed over the 2 most recent highs and +1/8 right. Support is Tenkan, Kijun below.

The Cloud top broke Kijun and Tenkan with a kiss of life. Meaning that 3 was either an a i or iv– impulse in a nutshell. Prior to this move the adjunct failure of the 50dma and Tenkan opened up the retest of 3.80-3.60 last time which fueled this week’s move higher. From there we fell sharply to the Kijun, A completion of 4 (bear) or (i) of 5 (bull) which gave this move sustenance

Notice the fractals of the move after completing the C of 4 bullish scenario played out the consolidation phase since it completed its IV (Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. For the bulls all this needs to hold for the highs to be a (iii) looking at possibilities we have the 161.8% at 7.026 if we get ‘silly’ 50dma support.

US Natural Gas KnovaWave Daily Grid

Like the larger wave on the way up it accelerated through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and new highs. We successfully tested that break in a pennant ABC. Previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and 8/8 and new highs underscore the structure that fed the move and is key longer term.

Weekly

Notably no sharp reversal, like the previous impulsive spikes. We saw a clean break of the Kijun to close back over near highs. This move was fueled by a fractal of the classic double top playing out after a spit of the weekly Kijun was sent back off Tenkan only to reverse all the way to spit the 50wma for the energy needed. Resistance is Previous highs and Murrey Grid.

The Natural gas rebalanced after continued to fail and retrace with impulse after reaching its major target, the double top potential from 2014 which equated nicely to over 8/8 Weekly and showed true impulse off that to rebalance Chikou. It’s now a question of degree, 3 or 5? Impulse just shy of the 8/8 and Tenkan confluence. A question of continuation with the 50wma as resistance and cloud as support.

US Natural Gas KnovaWave Weekly Grid

Recall the impulse wave powered from the spit of 50wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan.  This was energized with a series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is Fib/Murrey confluence, support Tenkan, Kijun – as always count your ABC’s

US Natural Gas 2014 and 2021 cycle Double Top

Key Energy Reports

Precious Metals

  • Spot Gold declined 1.1% to $1,827 (down 1.2%).
  • Silver dropped 6.2% to $19.85 (down 14.8%).

Gold

Gold futures back testing the median after another rejection at the Tenkan (orange). Needs gets impulse off this ABC off this cloud or double top gains more weight and it follows silver weakness The yellow metal is consolidating after it accelerated after breaking the weekly triangle higher. Gold has bounced after support at it’s uptrend line since the August 2021 bottom and Kijun. It garnered strength after rebalancing after manic rise to +5/8 weekly rebalance of Chikou in 5 waves. To be bullish we need to stay above the triangle. Murrey Math resistance, watch Fibs & Chikou.

Gold Weekly
Gold in Perspective

Silver

Silver, like Gold bounced under the cloud base. Back underr 50wma after spitting Tenkan providing support after reversed. Closing under weekly Kijun which is now resistance. Major support is previous lows

Silver Weekly Outlook

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Highlights

For the week the U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.9% to 105.11 (up 9.9% y-t-d)

Majors:

  • For the week on the upside, nil
  • On the downside, the Australian dollar 1.9%, the British pound 1.4%, the euro 1.3%, the Swiss franc 0.3%, and the Canadian dollar 0.1%.

Minors

  • For the week on the upside, the South Korean won increased 0.1%.
  • On the downside, the South African rand declined 3.7%, the New Zealand dollar 2.0%, the Swedish krona 2.0%, the Mexican peso 2.0%, the Brazilian real 1.9%, the Norwegian krone 1.4%, the Singapore dollar 0.8%, and the Chinese (onshore) renminbi slipped 0.17% versus the dollar (down 5.15% y-t-d).

 Australian Dollar – AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar reversed with cloud, Kijun and channel confluence over $0.7250, its highest levels in three weeks. It closed under the Tenkan around the channel midpoint. Since completing a 5 at the psychological 80 level it had fallen & continued to correct under the weekly cloud in emotive fashion. The Australian dollar fell to a test of the lows of 0.6800 at 4/8 China lockdown fears and AUDUSD forwards before finding support. Support is the Murrey Math Levels. Resistance also the Cloud, Tenkan and Kijun like many commodities.

Australian Dollar KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD

The Kiwi mirrored the AUD in its wave (iii) spit to lower channel wing recover to Tenkan where it met the KOD. Momentum failed and reversed from there. Kijun and Tenkan Resistance, which is pivotal. Support previous break spits and channel. We closed back under the old 61.8% break.

Canadian Dollar – USDCAD

The Loonie has continued to benefit from the USD’s broad correction as an improving fundamental background for the CAD of strong growth, hawkish central bank, favorable terms of trade. Since the USDCAD reversed its surge over 1.30 to test the cloud below and recaptured the Tenkan led by the AUD and NZD as it spat the weekly flat-topped triangle. Higher US yields has negated much of the oil price impacting direction. Watch flat Kijun and Tenkan. Use Fibs for support and resistance.

New Zealand Dollar KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Euro – EURUSD

The Euro reversal off last month’s lowest closing rate since 2017 at the outer channel reversed at the April break retest and spat the Tenkan after ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank will raise by 25% next month but still well behind the Fed. Euro continues to correct in what seems like eternal flags in the channel. We watch if Kijun (pink) reflecting Tenkan (orange) creates any impulse as EURUSD develops in the channel. Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Again, governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility

Euro KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

British Pound – GBPUSD

British pound lost most of its steam from its biggest weekly gain since December 2020 against the dollar to above $1.26 to close to i at 1.2320 after retesting the channel and Tenkan and being repelled. It found support ahead of MM 2/8 which also May 2021 1-2 test. Above we have channel and Tenkan confluence and flattening Kijun. The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.

British Pound KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Euro Pound – EURGBP

EURGBP is back testing 50wma which it back tested to break back above a messy bill flag and to the cloud as the GBP failed. 50wma and clouds resistance. Kijun support with Tenkan but flat so need upturn to continue higher.

Euro v British Pound KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Japanese Yen – USDJPY

USDJPY corrected to the weekly Tenkan at 125.88 which held and fueled a swift return higher. From the we accelerated higher moving above the May high of 131.342 which was 20-year highs for the USDJPY. It hasn’t let up closing the week at 3/8 134.42 On the way up the price accelerated after the close above the Tenkan over 114 hence the pull for it to correct to the Tenkan which it did this week. The Murrey Math level should remain massive support for dollar-yen. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun as it breaks through the old channel.

Use your USDJPY Murrey grid for now. EURJPY AUDJPY will determine risk on/off. The Tenkan is the natural balance of support ahead.

Japanese Yen v Dollar KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Mexican Peso held its triple bottom to rally back to the Tenkan as rates rose in the US. It continues in the long sideways pattern and consolidates despite outside uncertainty from oil and high rates. The recent high near 19.5 per USD was the highest level since March of 2020 and tracked general strength in Latin American currencies which has since reversed. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.

Mexican Peso KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Turkish Lire USDTRY

The Turkish Lira slow decline has picked up speed as it broke into the next corrective channel tier falling to 17 against the dollar on Wednesday, extending a steep slide this week closer to that all-time low of 18.4 hit in December. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan vowed once again to cut interest rates despite spiraling inflation. The Turkish president said this week that the country had ‘wasted years’ with the misguided view that prices should be controlled by using higher borrowing costs to suppress consumption. Such policies, he said, benefited only ‘those living a charmed existence and filling their pockets with [the proceeds of] high interest’, including foreign investors.”

To recap the wild 18-10 USDTRY swing last year reversed after falling in 3 waves to explode over the Tenkan, weekly cloud Kijun and 50wma below. The Murrey Math and Fib targets with last year’s Lire all-time lows in a hyper inflating collapse. So far this year the lira is the worst performer in emerging markets. Turkey’s lira has lost 22% this year, raising concerns that the country could be heading for a repeat of the FX crisis seen at the end of last year.

Turkish Lire KnovaWave Daily Outlook

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to perform technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. $BTC tested the top of a rising channel after the preceding sharp downturn which was the downside breakout of an earlier bearish flag, after breaking downside a H&S top and then down it went….

Recall Bitcoin exploded higher following it’s correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.

Looking back Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking. The recent high over $68,000 came after the launch over the Bitcoin ETF, Bitco. From that high we have 2 main alternatives a V of a 1 of a V. For bears it a completive five with impulse right to the 50wma – an incredible 26% fall in a Friday night session. That’s impulse! We watch for an ABC to develop here support is the 50wma and bottom of the weekend cloud.

Bitcoin KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

The Fail of TerraUSD

May 12 – Wall Street Journal (Alexander Osipovich and Caitlin Ostroff): “The cryptocurrency TerraUSD had one job: Maintain its value at $1 per coin. Since it launched in 2020, it had mostly done that, rarely straying more than a fraction of a penny from its intended price. That made it an island of stability, a place where traders and investors could stash their funds in between forays into the otherwise frenzied crypto market. This week TerraUSD became part of the frenzy too, slumping by more than a third on Monday and then tumbling as low as 23 cents on Wednesday. The collapse saddled investors with billions of dollars in losses. It ricocheted back into other cryptocurrencies…”

May 16 – Financial Times (Scott Chipolina): “Traders have yanked $7bn from Tether since the world’s biggest stablecoin last week briefly lost its peg against the US dollar, intensifying concerns about the assets that underpin the global cryptocurrency market. Tether’s market value has fallen by 9% since May 12 to $76bn as tokens have been removed from circulation to meet redemption requests, CryptoCompare data show. The decline came after Tether last Thursday traded at about 95 cents, well below the $1 level it seeks to maintain following the failure of a smaller rival. Observers inside and outside the crypto market have warned that deeper or more lasting volatility in stablecoins, which are designed to maintain a one-to-one peg with the dollar, could drag down the value of thousands of speculative crypto assets that have drawn buyers around the world.”

We have seen what you would expect from a 5 wave impulse peak and ABC correction, a violent correction and completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algorithms control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves. From there prices agitated towards those ATHs as news of a Bitcoin ETF fueled the rally, sound familiar? But this time it wasn’t signaling we are in a 3 high probability but a 5.

Bitcoin Mania in Perspective

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

 Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Turkey Geopolitical
Turkey Risk Monitor

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Banks

Major banks kicking off earnings this quarter, including BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), First Republic Bank (FRC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

Major US Banks Deliver Mixed Results in Q1, 2021

The major money cents banks released earnings with many record results for Q3. Mainly from trading and loss reserve releases from the pandemic kitty.  Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.

Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don’t exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.

Potentially the top six banks can buy back $11 billion in the first-quarter. Goldman Sachs shares after the announcement led the rally with a 7.7% increase. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan jumped 6.4% and 4.9% at intraday highs. Within minutes of the announcement all three banks have announced plans to resume buybacks in the new year.

Banks are also benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose. otal Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $737 billion during Q3 2020 to a record $60.113 trillion.

Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.  

“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

Watch Central Banker and Geopolitics speeches, reports and rate moves. 

Next Week’s Risk Dashboard via Scotiabank

  • Corporate balance sheet strengths
  • US nonfarm payrolls to cool?
  • Canadian jobs aided by massive easing of restrictions
  • BoC surveys likely to show higher inflation expectations
  • Minutes to the anticlimactic FOMC meeting
  • Analysts to firm up earnings estimates
  • Inflation: China, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, SZ, SK, Thailand, Philippines
  • CBs: RBA, Peru, Negara

US Events Focus

US Data

  • Monday: Bond and equity markets closed for Independence Day
  • Tuesday: May Factory Orders (prior 0.3%) at 10:00 ET
  • Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 0.7%) at 7:00 ET; final June IHS Markit Services PMI (prior 51.6) at 9:45 ET; May job openings (prior 11.400 mln) and June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (prior 55.9%) at 10:00 ET; and June FOMC Minutes at 14:00 ET
  • Thursday: Weekly Initial Claims (prior 231,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.328 mln), and May Trade Balance (prior -$87.10 bln) at 8:30 ET; weekly natural gas inventories (prior +82 bcf) at 10:30 ET; and weekly crude oil inventories (prior -2.76 mln) at 11:00 ET
  • Friday: June Nonfarm Payrolls (prior 390,000), Nonfarm Private Payrolls (prior 333,000), Unemployment Rate (prior 3.6%), Average Hourly Earnings (prior 0.3%), and Average Workweek (prior 34.6) at 8:30 ET; May Wholesale Inventories (prior 2.2%) at 10:00 ET; and May Consumer Credit (prior $38.00 bln) at 15:00 ET

Federal Reserve

Minutes to the FOMC meeting on June 14th–15th land on Wednesday at the usual 2pmET time. A recap of that meeting is available here. Recall that this meeting’s decisions were set up a couple of days in advance when Fed officials planted guidance with key media about a pivot toward a 75bps rate hike in communications blackout following the prior Friday’s CPI report.

Discussions around recession risk may be enhanced. There may be a greater discussion around the nearer-term size and pace of rate hikes, but the revised dot plot indicated a year-end target of 3 ½% for the upper limit of the fed funds target range from 1.75% at present.

FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR JEROME POWELL

OTHER FED OFFICIALS

Global Central Bank Events

The central bank landscape will be marked by three decisions by regional central banks

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to deliver another 50bps cash rate target hike on Tuesday. Such a move is largely priced and expected by most economists.

Most expect Bank Negara Malaysia to deliver its second quarter point rate hike to 2% on Wednesday. Inflation climbed to 2.8% y/y in May and the ringgit has suddenly depreciated by about 5% to the USD since the Federal Reserve accelerated its pivot from April onward. Currency weakness risks instability and imported inflation.

Peru’s central bank is expected to hike by another 25bps on Thursday and to perhaps trigger a pause thereafter. CPI inflation for June arrives after this publication is being distributed but may further inform the policy stance in the wake of what has already been 525bps of rate hikes starting last August


Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2022.

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