Traders Market Weekly: Fed, Inflation and Profit Warnings

September 18 – 24, 2022

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

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The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?


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The short covering rally came to a sharp end the promised pull back in consumer prices never happened, CPI was resurgent in August. The market took the bait that the with the pullback in oil prices and gasoline CPI would be lower. Despite the gasoline noise inflation is uncomfortably high. US consumer inflation hit +8.3% y/y vs +8.1% expected. Core CPI rose to 6.3% y/y vs 6.1% expected and 5.9% prior. Yes, energy fell 5.0% vs -4.6% prior with Gasoline -10.6% m/m vs -7.7% prior. That’s where the good news ended with rent +0.7% m/m vs +0.6% prior, food +0.8% vs +1.1%, +1.5% m/m in electricity and +3.5% m/m rise in natural gas prices adding to cost of living.

From there rates soared as did the US dollar and risk assets sold off hard. Then on Thursday delivery giant FedEx issued a major profit warning after the close Thursday for the first quarter and withdrew guidance for the year. $FDX was down to $43.85 or 21.40% by the close again this boosted the dollar and weighed on equity futures. There came some relief after the University of Michigan’s data showed consumers anticipate future inflation improved but remained elevated. One-year inflation expectations dropped to 4.6%, the lowest since September 2021, from 4.8% in August. The survey’s five-year inflation outlook slipped to 2.8%, the lowest since July 2021, from 2.9% in August.

The bond market reacted which led to a drift lower in 100 bps Fed hike odds from 25% to 17%. Two-year Treasury yields surged 17 bps on CPI Tuesday and rose 31 bps for the week to the highest (3.87%) since October 2007. Market expectations for the Fed funds rate at the December 14th FOMC meeting spiked 31 bps this week to 4.19%. Benchmark MBS yields jumped 26 bps to 5.07%, the highest since November 2008.

This coupled with quad witching gave the market some support. The foreign exchange market led the way with commodity currencies in particular bouncing which ensured AUD/USD closed above critical levels after touching a two-year low in early European trade. The euro caught a bid into the London fix. Sterling ended the day as the worst performer, but it made up some ground in US trade as it rose to 1.1423 from a low of 1.1351. The earlier catalyst was a soft retail sales report. Late in the day the UK learned businesses will be getting their power bills cut in half.

USD/JPY got the attention all week after multiple attempts at 145 with the threat of intervention in the air, to finish near the lows at 142.94. Rates an then stocks reacted accordingly. In the treasury market this week’s underperformance in shorter tenors was owed to continued speculation about aggressive rate hikes from the Fed which, compressed the 2s10s spread by another 15 bps to -40 bps. The U.S. Dollar Index inched toward its high from last week in early trade, but eventually returned to its flat line at 109.72. The Index gained 0.6% this week.

Ahead is The Fed, Seasonals and More

Next week is Fed Week, coming next week at the worst week on the calendar seasonally for equities, over the past 50 years.

A big week for central banks:

  • First Tier: Fed FOMC, Bank of England, BoJ
  • Second Tier: PBoC, Norges, SNB, Riksbank, SARB, Brazil, BSP, BI, Turkey

The FOMC follows a number of Central Banks raising rates in this cycle. The RBA, BOC, ECB and Poland all raised. We also got hawkish comments from the Fed’s Powell and Brainard before the blackout. We know heading into the Fed de-risking continued after Fed Chair Powell’s policy speech with uncompromising inflation resolve at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy continued this week but reversed Thursday. On Friday Fed speakers pushed the narrative with Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) saying, “I support another significant increase in the policy rate. and “Rough estimate Is that $1 Trillion of runoff is about 25Bps worth of rate hikes.” Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) said that the case for continuing to remove policy accommodation remains “clear-cut.”

What The Fed Has to Base Decisions On:

Independence – Never Take It for Granted Traders

“In aggregate, the market goes from order to disorder, and on that journey little pockets of order can form, including in commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies that circle back and reorder disorder. Then there is us the market player that reflects through order and disorder in an ever-evolving loop towards independence. It all starts with gravity and ends with equilibrium and back we go.” KnovaWave “The rules of market flux”

The Fed has kicked off its first real tightening campaign since 1994, with securities markets already at the brink of illiquidity and dislocation. Markets could soon be screaming for assurances of the Fed’s “buyer of last resort” liquidity backstop, while the Fed is prepared to begin withdrawing liquidity by selling Treasuries and MBS.

Another important aspect is the Fed doesn’t Control corporate pricing or wage decisions. Let us be clear geopolitical, climate change developments and what an out of depth, politically motivated administration are outside the Fed’s sphere of influence. There has been over $5.1 Trillion new “money” in 126 weeks, it’s a reasonable conclusion the Fed has lost control of Inflation.


The VOLX`s underlying instrument is the Mini VIX™ Future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility. The VIX is calculated using a formula to derive expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of out-of-the-money puts and calls (options) on the S&P 500.

When the VIX is highly reactive, VIX related products can serve as potentially effective hedging tools, when the VIX is not very reactive, traditional hedging techniques may be a better choice.

Monetary inflation is running wild. In 2021 Federal Reserve Credit expanded $1.391 TN or 19% to a record $8.742 TN. The Fed’s balance sheet inflated a mindboggling $5.015 TN, or 135%, in the 120 weeks since QE was restarted in September 2019. Federal Reserve Assets have now inflated 10 times since the mortgage finance Bubble collapse.

We need to grasp all the risks to be wary off and received plenty of flak from it. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focused on the crowd psychology aspect over the past few weeks.

“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”

– MoneyNeverSleeps

Our weekly reminder for risk. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.

PART A – Stock Markets

Weekly Highlights – USA


  • S&P500 dropped 4.8% (down 18.7% y-t-d),
  • Dow fell 4.1% (down 15.2%).
  • S&P 400 Midcaps dropped 4.7% (down 16.2%)
  • Small cap Russell 2000 fell 4.5% (down 19.9%).
  • Nasdaq100 sank 5.8% (down 27.3%).
Major US Stock Indices


  • Utilities slumped 3.9% (up 2.6%).
  • Banks fell 3.8% (down 19.8%)
  • Broker/Dealers lost 3.6% (down 9.9%)
  • Transports sank 8.8% (down 22.2%).
  • Semiconductors stumbled 5.8% (down 35.0%).
  • Biotechs fell 4.4% (down 13.9%).
  • With bullion sinking $42, the HUI gold equities index lost 4.1% (down 26.3%).
11 Sector SPDRs as well as the 500 component stocks last week.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

Major US Indices

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

US Markets YTD

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -15.2% YTD
  • S&P 400: -16.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: -18.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -19.9% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -26.8% YTD

Global Stock Market Highlights

Highlights – Europe Stocks

  • U.K.’s FTSE equities index fell 1.6% (down 2.0% y-t-d).
  • France’s CAC40 lost 2.2% (down 15.0%).
  • German DAX equities index dropped 2.7% (down 19.8%).
  • Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index slipped 0.6% (down 8.4%).
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB index was little changed (down 19.1%).

Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.

 Highlights – Asia Stocks

  • Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index fell 2.3% (down 4.3% y-t-d).
  • South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed (down 20.0%).
  • India’s Sensex equities index declined 1.6% (up 1.0%).
  • China’s Shanghai Exchange Index sank 4.2% (down 14.1%).

 Highlights – Australian Stocks

The Australian ASX 200 Stock Market Closed Up 13% in 2021 With Lithium Plays Starring

 Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks 

EM equities reacted to currency valuation

  • Brazil’s Bovespa index dropped 2.7% (up 4.3%),
  • Mexico’s Bolsa index dipper 0.6% (down 12.2%).
  • Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index dropped 4.1% (up 81.8%).
  • Russia’s MICEX equities index increased 0.4% (down 35.7%).

Technical Analysis

S&P 500

Daily: SPX500 performed a perfect competitive wave last week at extreme fear and bear. From there we rallied through the daily Tenkan to close at 5/8 and last week’s break. The Kijun by week’s end had flattened above in a perfect measured 3 wave move on the 240 Murrey Math highlighted in the podcast. We also see this hit confluence of the 50dma which is pulling the prices higher to solid resistance between 4110 and 4120 (yellow line). The prices pulled through the downward cloud pulled by the twist ‘helium contusion’ on the completive.

Recall the fuel from the top of the channel after completing 3 waves off ATH, accelerated after broke the Tenkan through to the 4600 OI where it reversed with impulse back to Tenkan Bulls this a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is 1-2 of (i) completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun and watch for ABC. From no fear to panic is the driving element. For fractal purposes, SPX completed 5 waves up where it reversed with impulse with energy fueled from the power impulse down from +1/8 ATH spit of a spit fail. On the way down (just like up) it accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then through the median after tapping 8/8.

Daily S&P 500 3 waves

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the Tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in


The S&P 500 reversed higher after three straight weekly falls. For major cycles we watch the S&P 500 over 4,231, the 50% retracement of losses from the Jan. 3 & June 16 close. Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement & then gone on to make new cycle lows. We have accelerated up since holding the 38% correction and spitting the previous low. Power came from holding support and spitting recent lows. From there back over the Tenkan, as one would expect in a 3 or C, i.e impulse right to the weekly cloud is needed for cycle switching. For that you would have to break the Kijun and 50wma.

The flat weekly Kijun acted as a magnet as the Spoos blasted back up through the wave iii or C lows. Each new high evolved after testing Tenkan key support on the way and we are now getting a retest as resistance. We reiterate this needs to be recovered for a resumption of the uptrend meanwhile the bear market plays out. Watch Tenkan this week and watch for Kijun reaction. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.

S&P500 Weekly Outlook

THE KEY: Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets


Since the Nasdaq spat the weekly MM 5/8 and retested it, we have seen impulse from the median, Tenkan confluence spit to close at recent highs at the Tenkan retesting after it broke the Kijun last month and downward channel resistance. The Nasdaq is well behind the S&P pace with the weekly cloud and 50wma well above. Support the break up level and between the 38/50 Fibs.

Recall ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.

NASDAQ Record Highs

Dow Jones

The Dow like the Nasdaq closed at the weekly Tenkan after bouncing back to test that Tenkan and Kijun after the reaction here off the weekly cloud. Support is the channel and previous breakups.

Russell 2000

The small cap Russell RUT had been developing a large flag which it did a false break to fuel the selling from there we replicated to the down (Adam’s theory). Russell 2000 low-price tested the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 2020 low before bouncing higher.

After some delay we broke through Tenkan and Kijun which had rejected the bounce highlighting its weakness. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Closed right in the middle of the cloud. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. 8/8 support collapsed on the way down and is now major resistance.

Russell Index Negative Divergence to NASDAQ

Semiconductors SMH

Semiconductors SMH clean with reaction from above reverted with the retest & break of the triple top patterning in a pennant. Pull from Chip Shortage players $ON $TSM $NVDA $ASML $AMD $QCOM $AVGO $TXN $INTC $AMAT $LRCX $XLNX

VanEck Vectors Semiconductors ETF

NVidia $NVDA

NVidia heads into another earnings week, last quarter signaled the low at 5/8 and the breakup retest from May 2021. NVidia is a clear leader of #SOX #SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes. Above is the Key Break (mauve) and Tenkan to a flat cloud. Support the recent low.

Nvidia NVDA stock chart

Apple $AAPL

On the way up Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level on the way down these levels became key energy levels all the way to $132. Support held at the May break (just like NVDA) where from there it spat the cloud pulled by a flat Tenkan and Kijun as it rebalanced Chikou. It closed right at the old channel break and MM 8/8 which is now key. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.

Apple AAPL Stock Chart


The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) finally found some support at -1/8 and the 423.6% extension! The fund is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, it has not been a pretty slide.

The ARKK ETF trading clinically, tested triangle breakdown and failed off 50 WMA. Some work at support at 61.8% of whole move and then wrecked again. Clear crowd behavior, we saw ATH in NASDAQ & SPX, yet this couldn’t raise a bid – very telling negative divergence. $ARKK rebalanced Chikou at week’s end

Ark ARKK ETF Stock Chart

US Stocks Watch

Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Earnings Highlights This Week:

Monday includes

  • AutoZone (AZO)

Tuesday includes

  • StitchFix (SFIX), Aurora Cannabis (ACB)

Wednesday includes

  • General Mills (GIS), Lennar (LEN), KB Home (KBH), H.B. Fuller Company (FUL), and RLX Technology (RLX)

Thursday includes

  • FedEx Corporation (FDX), Costco Wholesale (COST), Accenture (ACN), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and Manchester United (MANU)

Friday includes

  • Carnival Corporation (CCL)

IPO Wrap

US IPO Week Ahead:

Part B: Bond Markets

Inflation Matters

Inflation with Henry Kaufman

Kaufman is the legendary chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers is someone who knows Inflation.  Henry Kaufman in an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker Jan 14, 2022:

 “I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”

“The longer the Fed takes to tackle a high rate of inflation, the more inflationary psychology is embedded in the private sector — and the more it will have to shock the system.”

“‘It’s dangerous to use the word transitory,’ Kaufman said. ‘The minute you say transitory, it means you’re willing to tolerate some inflation.’ That, he said, undermines the Fed’s role of maintaining economic and financial stability to achieve ‘reasonable non-inflationary growth.’”

The rubber is meeting the road as the trifecta of rising interest rates, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and surging costs continues to weigh, this has been no surprise to us here and shouldn’t have been to the market and PTB. You can only play with fire for so long before you get scorched!

Food prices have reversed sharply after being almost vertical for the past year, world food prices as measured by the FAO Food Price Index fell for the fifth consecutive month in August. The index was down 2.7 points (1.9%) from July, however remained 10.1 points (7.9%) above its value a year ago. At 138.0 the index is well under the record high 159.7 from March. Price falls were seen in all the five sub-indices of the FFPI in August, with monthly percentage declines ranging from 1.4 percent for cereals to 3.3 percent for vegetable oils.

With all the redirection of blame at the Fed about inflation one has to understand it is a global phenomenon outside the Fed’s Control. With the war drums louder than ever the supply chain issues are out of control. The Federal Reserve is not in control of global energy and commodities prices.

Everything points to powerful inflationary dynamics and a Federal Reserve so far “behind the curve.”

Highlights – Treasuries

“This is shaping up to be the most volatile year for Treasuries in over a decade, as uncertainty about the impact of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening whipsaws yields. The yield on 10-year US notes has traded in a range of at least 10 bps in 50 of 95 trading days so far in 2022. That puts it on track for an annual rate of more than 130 episodes, which would be the highest since 2009.”

May 18 – Bloomberg (Garfield Reynolds)

Investment-grade bond funds posted outflows of $4.641 billion, and junk bond funds reported negative flows of $5.043 billion (from Lipper).

U.S. Treasuries underperformance in shorter tenors with continued speculation about aggressive rate hikes from the Fed, compressed the 2s10s spread by another 15 bps to -40 bps. Two-year Treasury yields surged 17 bps on CPI Tuesday and rose 31 bps for the week to the highest (3.87%) since October 2007. Market expectations for the Fed funds rate at the December 14th FOMC meeting spiked 31 bps this week to 4.19%. Benchmark MBS yields jumped 26 bps to 5.07%, the highest since November 2008.

Yield Watch

  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 3.85% (+28 bps for the week)
  • 3-yr: -6 bps to 3.80% (+18 bps for the week)
  • 5-yr: -5 bps to 3.63% (+18 bps for the week)
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 3.45% (+13 bps for the week)
  • 30-yr: +4 bps to 3.52% (+6 bps for the week)

All good until markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported record corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity, funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. The combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushed strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.

Key Rates and Spreads


  • 10-year Treasury bonds 3.45%, up +0.13 w/w (1-yr range: 1.08-3.48)
  • Credit spread 2.12%, down -0.10 w/w (1-yr range: 1.65-4.31)
  • BAA corporate bond index 5.57%, up +0.03 w/w (1-yr range: 3.13-5.57) (new 6 year high)
  • 30-Year conventional mortgage rate 6.35%, up +0.38% w/w w/w (1-yr range 2.75-6.35)
Mortgage News Daily September 9, 2022

Yield Curve

  • 10-year minus 2-year: -0.32%, up +0.08 w/w (1-yr range -0.48 – 1.59)
  • 10-year minus 3-month: +0.29%, up +0.01% w/w (1-yr range 0.04 – 2.04)
  • 2-year minus Fed funds: +1.54%, up +0.31% w/w

Instability is pronounced, credit defaults are on track to rise in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, according to a survey by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers. The economic slump is likely to occur later this year or in 2023, according to the survey.

Highlights – Mortgage Market

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates jumped 13 bps to 6.02% (up 316bps y-o-y) – the high since November 2008.
  • Fifteen-year rates gained five bps to a 13-year high 5.21% (up 309bps).
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates surged 29 bps to 4.93% (up 242bps) – the high since July 2009.
  • Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up eight bps to 6.18% (up 315bps) – the high since January 2010.

Highlights – Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Credit was little changed last week at $8.789 TN. Fed Credit is down $101bn from the June 22nd peak. Over the past 157 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $5.062 TN, or 136%.
  • Fed Credit inflated $5.978 Trillion, or 213%, over the past 514 weeks.
  • Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week dropped $11.2bn to a five-week low $3.377 TN.
  • “Custody holdings” were down $94bn, or 2.7%, y-o-y.
  • Total money market fund assets declined $12.4bn to a 10-week low $4.552 TN. Total money funds were up $87bn, or 2.0%, y-o-y.
  • Total Commercial Paper jumped $9.7bn to $1.208 TN. CP was up $26bn, or 2.2%, over the past year.

Highlights – European Bonds

  • Greek 10-year yields were unchanged at 4.26% (up 295bps).
  • Spain’s 10-year yields rose five bps to 2.91% (up 235bps).
  • German bund yields gained six bps to 1.76% (up 193bps).
  • French yields increased four bps to 2.31% (up 211bps).
  • The French to German 10-year bond spread narrowed two to 55 bps.
  • U.K. 10-year gilt yields added four bps to 3.14% (up 217bps).

Highlights – Asian Bonds

  • Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields were up slightly to 0.26% (up 19bps y-t-d).

Federal Reserve Gives All Banks a Pass in Annual Bank Stress Test

The Federal Reserve released its annual bank stress test after the market close Thursday. All 34 large banks tested remained well above their risk-based minimum capital requirements, and the Fed announced no restrictions relating to dividends and buybacks. With the dismal state of the economy through soaring inflation and record low consumer sentiment these tests were keenly watched. Banks suffered slightly more hypothetical losses in the 2022 severe test than last year, posting $612 billion in projected losses as capital ratios fell to 9.7%. Read More Here.

Part C: Commodities

“Commodity markets are struggling to shake their months-long liquidity crisis that’s brought an era of erratic swings in the value of the world’s raw materials. The giant price fluctuations that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled markets for everything from natural gas to crude oil and metals. Trading activity in most raw material markets has sunk to low levels. Open interest in oil last week hit the lowest since 2015, while natural gas, sugar and aluminum futures holdings all remain at or near the lowest levels in years. In out-of-control power and gas markets, spiking prices are limiting the number of contracts traders can hold because of surging collateral requirements. In oil, macro investors have pulled bets on raw materials as an inflation hedge after central banks began hiking rates. All the while, some traders have turned their backs on the London Metal Exchange after the crisis in nickel trading earlier this year.”

September 13 – Bloomberg (Alex Longley and Yongchang Chin)


  • The Bloomberg Commodities Index declined 1.5% (up 17.7% y-t-d).
  • Spot Gold fell 2.4% to $1,675 (down 8.4%).
  • Silver rallied 3.9% to $19.59 (down 16.0%).
  • WTI crude declined $1.68 to $85.11 (up 13%).
  • Gasoline slipped 0.7% (up 8%),
  • Natural Gas dropped 2.9% to $7.76 (up 108%).
  • Copper declined 1.4% (down 21%).
  • Wheat dipped 1.0% (up 12%),
  • Corn declined 1.1% (up 14%).
  • Bitcoin sank $1,555, or 7.3%, this week to $19.750 (down 57%).
Weekend September 9, 2022

Risk markets continue to respond to the war in Ukraine and the supply crisis from the Coronavirus outbreak and lockdowns.

BDI Freight Index

  • The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index on Friday broke its seven-day long gaining streak, losing 59 points, or about 3.7%, on its worst day in over two weeks, to 1,553.
  • The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels gained recorded its third weekly gain of about 28%, highest since mid-February or the week.
  • The capesize index posted a weekly gain of about 126%, its highest in over two years. However, it snapped a five-day winning streak, losing 118 points, or about 7.2%, at 1,519.
  • * Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as coal and steel-making ingredient iron-ore used in construction, fell $981 to $12,599.
  • The panamax index posted a 6.7% weekly gain, its second consecutive weekly gain. However, it fell for the second consecutive session and was down 100 points, or about 4.8%, at 1,990.
  • Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, were down $900 at $17,913.
  • The supramax index rose for the fourth consecutive session by 22 points to 1,551
Baltic Dry Index Weekly

Aluminum (Alcoa)

We analyze Alcoa as a surrogate to Aluminum given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.

We have seen $AA retest the previous high after the +3 Spit as the Chikou rebalanced. We have the Gap below at +1/8 confluence. We move to 240 for this pennant resolution.



Copper rebounded sharply off the 50wma but again has failed on the cloud spit and channel break. The flattening Weekly Tenkan and Kijun acted as a magnet to close right there. #HG power spits have quickly rebalanced back into the wide channel. Copper had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities.

Weekly Copper Outlook
Copper Supply Crunch


Lumber prices were a leading indicator of the supply-chain problems and inflation that followed pandemic lockdowns.

Lumber futures for July delivery ended Friday at $695.10 per thousand board feet, down 52% from a high in early March. On-the-spot wood prices have plunged, too. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks cash sales, fell about 12% last week to end at $794. That is down from $1,334 in March, just before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.

Lumber Futures


USDA September WASDE Report

USDA June 30 Acreage Report

USDA influential report for commodities, the June 30 Acreage report. The most significant point was corn again the largest crop produced in America in 2022. USDA raised 2022 acreage expectations for corn by 431,000 acres from the March 31. Markets pared some of their earlier morning’s losses on the news. The announcement reversed USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report which had projected higher soybean acreage relative to corn for only the third time in U.S. history.

USDA June 30 Acreage Report Shows Corn the Largest Crop Produced in America in 2022 – TRADERS COMMUNITY


KnovaWave analyze US Wheat futures given its high beta relationship and more liquid aspect as an investment vehicle.

Wheat held after it threatened its weekly cloud and 0/8 which held. In a chopper week it closed at the 50wma after holding the 61.8%. The contract stabilized after it continued its sharp impulsive collapse fueled from when it retested and broke the Tenkan (orange). This came about after a failure at retesting the 8/8 move and high after it spat 8/8, and the minimum target. It had completed a measured 4/8 correction off highs then broke key support at 38% then 50% and 50wma confluence in the freefall. From here Wheat support at that $700 cloud confluence with the breakup level at 61.8% resistance, then Kijun and Tenkan.


Full Report:


After Corn recovered from its freefall it has worked its way up spitting off Kijun at the 7/8 and holding the top of the weekly cloud after Tenkan and 50wma was recaptured. Earlier in the year Corn had topped out at the highest since 2012 in Chicago at +1/8 and corrected with impulse back to break the Tenkan which it swiftly did a spit of a spit after bouncing off 720, which also the price successfully retested the high from April 2021. From here we saw Tenkan fail again, and empowered selling smashed through previous high, Kijun and 7/8 confluence. The 50wma gave no support with the cloud and 6/8 slowing the selling down. All these levels are now significant.

Corn Futures Outlook

Full Report:


Soybeans spat the 50 wma, the move had swung with grains on the on and off US rail strike. From there continued lower after it held a retest of the triple bottom after prices were rejected harshly at the Tenkan, off the Kijun and under the 50 wma finding support at 6/8. Support at the Cloud gave way, and we sit near the January breakup. On the way down soybeans rejected the Kijun and channel retest to spit back the 50wma. The weekly cloud and Murray mingle around the $14.6/bushel benchmark are massive.

Recall beans broke down from the bull pennant framed by +4/8 and +1/8 with the Kijun unable to sustain support right at the breakout. Support at the 50wma gave way to under the futures pivot at $15/bushel benchmarks and at the close of the week was a magnet to the recovery bounce. Pressure came from futures spitting the Weekly +4/8 over $17.50/bushel three times. The market needs to rebalance that energy.

Soybeans Weekly Outlook

Full Report:


US Crude Oil (WTI)


Measuring oil MM recalculation higher to almost +2/8 and 161.8% Fib retest. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. Support is previous lows and Tenkan. Resistance Kijun and 50dma which it needs close above for a rally to get legs.

WTI Daily KnovaWave

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures traded over $94bbl after reversing off last Tuesdays $86.53Bbl, the lowest settle since January 25, it closed the week above the 50wma. That was after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Risk support is the grid. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Resistance Weekly Tenkan & Kijun and Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations.

WTI Weekly KnovaWave Shape

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

Oil Price Recovery

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)


US Natural Gas has continued higher after it completed 3 waves correcting the daily 8/8 spit correction to -2/8. Two clear alternatives, we are correcting the highs 5 or that was a 3 and we go higher. We closed over the 2 most recent highs and +1/8 right. Support is Tenkan, Kijun below.

The Cloud top broke Kijun and Tenkan with a kiss of life. Meaning that 3 was either an a i or iv– impulse in a nutshell. Prior to this move the adjunct failure of the 50dma and Tenkan opened up the retest of 3.80-3.60 last time which fueled this week’s move higher. From there we fell sharply to the Kijun, A completion of 4 (bear) or (i) of 5 (bull) which gave this move sustenance

Notice the fractals of the move after completing the C of 4 bullish scenario played out the consolidation phase since it completed its IV (Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. For the bulls all this needs to hold for the highs to be a (iii) looking at possibilities we have the 161.8% at 7.026 if we get ‘silly’ 50dma support.

US Natural Gas KnovaWave Daily Grid

Like the larger wave on the way up it accelerated through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and new highs. We successfully tested that break in a pennant ABC. Previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and 8/8 and new highs underscore the structure that fed the move and is key longer term.


Notably no sharp reversal, like the previous impulsive spikes. We saw a clean break of the Kijun to close back over near highs. This move was fueled by a fractal of the classic double top playing out after a spit of the weekly Kijun was sent back off Tenkan only to reverse all the way to spit the 50wma for the energy needed. Resistance is Previous highs and Murrey Grid.

The Natural gas rebalanced after continued to fail and retrace with impulse after reaching its major target, the double top potential from 2014 which equated nicely to over 8/8 Weekly and showed true impulse off that to rebalance Chikou. It’s now a question of degree, 3 or 5? Impulse just shy of the 8/8 and Tenkan confluence. A question of continuation with the 50wma as resistance and cloud as support.

US Natural Gas KnovaWave Weekly Grid

Key Energy Reports

Precious Metals

  • Spot Gold fell 2.4% to $1,675 (down 8.4%).
  • Silver rallied 3.9% to $19.59 (down 16.0%)


Gold futures back testing the median after another rejection at the Tenkan (orange). Needs gets impulse off this ABC off this cloud or double top gains more weight and it follows silver weakness The yellow metal is consolidating after it accelerated after breaking the weekly triangle higher. Gold has bounced after support at it’s uptrend line since the August 2021 bottom and Kijun. It garnered strength after rebalancing after manic rise to +5/8 weekly rebalance of Chikou in 5 waves. To be bullish we need to stay above the triangle. Murrey Math resistance, watch Fibs & Chikou.

Gold Weekly
Gold in Perspective


Silver, like Gold bounced under the cloud base. Back underr 50wma after spitting Tenkan providing support after reversed. Closing under weekly Kijun which is now resistance. Major support is previous lows

Silver Weekly Outlook

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”


  • For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.6% this week, traded toward its high from last week in early Friday trade but eventually returned to its flat line at 109.72. (Up 14.7% y-t-d)
  • For the week on the upside, nil
  • On the downside, the Norwegian krone declined 2.6%, the New Zealand dollar 2.0%, the Brazilian real 2.0%, the Australian dollar 1.8%, the Canadian dollar 1.8%, the South African rand 1.7%, the British pound 1.5%, the Swedish krona 1.1%, the Mexican peso 0.7%, the South Korean won 0.6%, the Singapore dollar 0.5%, the Swiss franc 0.4%, the Japanese yen 0.3% and the euro 0.3%. The Chinese (onshore) renminbi declined 0.87% versus the dollar (down 9.03% y-t-d)..
Weekend September 9, 2022

Australian Dollar – AUDUSD

For the week AUDUSD closed down 0.22%

The Aussie dollar has reversed off an eight-week high, trading over US71¢ with the revitalized hawkish Fed. The Reserve Bank of Australia has hammered on stagnant wage growth as a problem within the Australian economy. In June, the government raised the minimum wage by 5.2%. This week, the Federal government will host a jobs summit and a number of parties have already started media campaigns to push the case for further significant wage increases. Keep an eye on the effect on bonds and the dollar here.

To reflect potential upside, we look at the way down AUDUSD with cloud, Kijun and channel confluence over $0.7250 it reversed lower to 4/8 just over .66. This week we closed under the Tenkan around the channel midpoint. Since completing a 5 at the psychological 80 level it had fallen & corrected under the weekly cloud in emotive fashion

China lockdown fears overhang and AUDUSD forwards support with bonds and RBA raising. Support is the Murrey Math Levels. Resistance the Cloud and Kijun like many commodities. It was the strongest major currency against the USD in July after the Yen correction and has continued in that fashion.

Australian Dollar KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD

For the week NZDUSD closed down 0.6%

The Kiwi outran the Aussie lower this week after it mirrored the AUD spitting the lower channel wing to recover through Tenkan after momentum failed and reversed from there. Kijun resistance, which is pivotal is a long way off. We closed back over the old 61.8% break. The RBNZ Policy Announcement has had 7 consecutive rate hikes which has been supporting the forwards..

Canadian Dollar – USDCAD

For the week USDCAD closed up 0.3%

The USDCAD touched 1.3300 a 22-month high. both were expected to pause around 4% but now Fed funds are pricing in 4.40% in March. That’s creating a central bank divergence and cleared the way for a break above 1.32 in USD/CAD. I continue to think the destination is 1.37. while the liquidity zone below 1.3100 could limit upside price action. The high of 1.3223 on July 15 is back in focus. That was the highest level since November 2020. It has recaptured the Tenkan led by the AUD and NZD as it spat the weekly flat-topped triangle. Watch flat Kijun and Tenkan.

Use Fibs for support and resistance. Eyes are on Canadian CPI, the recent decline in energy prices should help alleviate some of the broader pricing pressures. The BoC have been quiet since their 100bp hike in July after it was accompanied with the removal of language about acting in a “forceful” manner, but it did signal rate hikes are to continue with the path being decided by its ongoing assessment of the economy and inflation

New Zealand Dollar KnovaWave Weekly Outlook


For the week EURUSD closed down 0.75%

The Euro back tested the 1/8 after its first sweep of parity with the sharp selloff fueled reversal off last month’s correction off the Tenkan which was fast and furious to the lowest closing rate since 2017 spitting the outer channel. Euro continues to cascade in what seems like eternal flags in the channel as it spits the Tenkan. We watch if Kijun (pink) reflecting Tenkan (orange) creates any impulse as EURUSD develops in the channel. Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Again, governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility

Euro KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

British Pound – GBPUSD

For the week GBPUSD closed up 0.5%

For the week GBPUSD closed down 0.77%

It is still hectic for Sterling; it is down to a new leader between Rishi Sukan and Liz Truss with Truss the favorite. GBPUSD structure leaves the recent 1.1718 low vulnerable. British pound continues to have difficulty since it’s vicious move down in July that reversed to unchanged by the end of the month.

Cable lost all of the steam from its biggest weekly gain since December 2020 against the dollar to above $1.26 to be smashed to the bottom channel under 1/8 and 1.1800 after retesting the channel and Tenkan. It is still undermined by political risk and recession fears. Above we have channel and Tenkan confluence and flattening Kijun. The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.

British Pound KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Euro Pound – EURGBP

For the week EURGBP closed down 0.27%

EURGBP has been in the doldrums since it back tested 50wma after breaking it early. 50wma and cloud proved too much and EURGBP failed under Kijun support with Tenkan resistance. The EUR/GBP gave up control.

Euro v British Pound KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Japanese Yen – USDJPY

For the week USDJPY closed up 0.53%

Last month USDJPY corrected to the weekly Tenkan at 125.88 which held and fueled a swift return higher and has rallied dramatically. Dollar yen accelerated higher moving above the May high of 131.342 which was 20-year highs for the USDJPY. It didn’t let up with Murray Math Weekly levels recalculating higher. USDJPY closed at 135.75 last month, traded to almost 140 where it spat 8/8 and reversed lower, it is trading at 133.32 today. The last two trading days of the month saw the reversal from positive to negative and traded at the low for the month on the last day of the month to close at the weekly Tenkan.

On the way up the price accelerated after the close above the Tenkan over 114 hence the pull for it to correct to the Tenkan which it did to ignite this rally a month ago. The Murrey Math level should remain massive support for dollar-yen. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun as it breaks through the old channel.

Use your USDJPY Murrey grid for now. EURJPY AUDJPY will determine risk on/off. The Tenkan is the natural balance of support ahead.

Japanese Yen v Dollar KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Emerging Market Currencies

For the week USDMXN closed  down 0.67%

The Mexican Peso held its triple bottom to rally back to the Tenkan as rates rose in the US. It continues in the long sideways pattern and consolidates despite outside uncertainty from oil and high rates. The recent high near 19.5 per USD was the highest level since March of 2020 and tracked general strength in Latin American currencies which has since reversed. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.

Mexican Peso KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Turkish Lire USDTRY

For the week USDTRY closed up 0.52%

The Turkish Lira slow decline continues as it rides the median in the corrective channel tier spitting 17 against the dollar. We are still in spitting distance of that all-time low of 18.4 hit in December. The Turkish Central Bank is expected to maintain its Weekly Repo Rate at 14.00% at its upcoming meeting. Turkey’s recent monetary policy decisions have not been based on economic fundamentals, with late 2021 seeing a cumulative 500bps cut in rates in a matter of months to current levels.

The background is the same with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan vowing to cut interest rates despite spiraling inflation. In December last year, the Turkish Central Bank introduced a “Lira deposit scheme” to stem the decline in the currency. The Turkish president said that the country had ‘wasted years’ with the misguided view that prices should be controlled by using higher borrowing costs to suppress consumption. Such policies, he said, benefited only ‘those living a charmed existence and filling their pockets with [the proceeds of] high interest’, including foreign investors.”

To recap the wild 18-10 USDTRY swing last year reversed after falling in 3 waves to explode over the Tenkan, weekly cloud Kijun and 50wma below. The Murrey Math and Fib targets with last year’s Lire all-time lows in a hyper inflating collapse. So far this year the lira is the worst performer in emerging markets, raising concerns that the country could be heading for a repeat of the FX crisis seen at the end of last year.

Turkish Lire KnovaWave Daily Outlook


Bitcoin continues to perform technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. $BTC tested the top of a rising channel after the preceding sharp downturn which was the downside breakout of an earlier bearish flag, after breaking downside a H&S top and then down it went….

Recall Bitcoin exploded higher following it’s correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.

Looking back Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking. The recent high over $68,000 came after the launch over the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcon. From that high we have 2 main alternatives a V of a 1 of a V. For bears it a completive five with impulse right to the 50wma – an incredible 26% fall in a Friday night session. That’s impulse! We watch for an ABC to develop here support is the 50wma and bottom of the weekend cloud.

Bitcoin KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

The Fail of TerraUSD

May 12 – Wall Street Journal (Alexander Osipovich and Caitlin Ostroff): “The cryptocurrency TerraUSD had one job: Maintain its value at $1 per coin. Since it launched in 2020, it had mostly done that, rarely straying more than a fraction of a penny from its intended price. That made it an island of stability, a place where traders and investors could stash their funds in between forays into the otherwise frenzied crypto market. This week TerraUSD became part of the frenzy too, slumping by more than a third on Monday and then tumbling as low as 23 cents on Wednesday. The collapse saddled investors with billions of dollars in losses. It ricocheted back into other cryptocurrencies…”

May 16 – Financial Times (Scott Chipolina): “Traders have yanked $7bn from Tether since the world’s biggest stablecoin last week briefly lost its peg against the US dollar, intensifying concerns about the assets that underpin the global cryptocurrency market. Tether’s market value has fallen by 9% since May 12 to $76bn as tokens have been removed from circulation to meet redemption requests, CryptoCompare data show. The decline came after Tether last Thursday traded at about 95 cents, well below the $1 level it seeks to maintain following the failure of a smaller rival. Observers inside and outside the crypto market have warned that deeper or more lasting volatility in stablecoins, which are designed to maintain a one-to-one peg with the dollar, could drag down the value of thousands of speculative crypto assets that have drawn buyers around the world.”

We have seen what you would expect from a 5 wave impulse peak and ABC correction, a violent correction and completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algorithms control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves. From there prices agitated towards those ATHs as news of a Bitcoin ETF fueled the rally, sound familiar? But this time it wasn’t signaling we are in a 3 high probability but a 5.

Bitcoin Mania in Perspective

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

 Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Turkey Geopolitical
Turkey Risk Monitor

Economic and Geopolitical Watch


Major banks kicking off earnings this quarter, including BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), First Republic Bank (FRC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

Earnings expectations for the banks on the S&P500

Major US Banks Deliver Mixed Results in Q2, 2022

The major money cents banks released earnings with many strong results for Q3. Mainly from trading on the positive side. We see a reversal of loss reserve releases from the pandemic kitty.  Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.

Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don’t exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.

Banks are also benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose.

Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.  

“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

Watch Central Banker and Geopolitics speeches, reports and rate moves. 

Global Watch

  • Next Week’s Risk Dashboard via Scotiabank
  • Politics and the drivers and remedies of inflation
  • FOMC: hike, dots, forecasts and reserves
  • Canadian inflation: picking the right measures
  • Bank of England: will it be 50 or 75?
  • Global PMIs to inform growth, inflation, supply chains
  • PBoC likely to hold BoJ will probably stand pat again
  • Other CBs: Norges, SNB, Riksbank, SARB, Brazil, BSP, BI, Turkey
  • Other macro readings

US Events Focus

  • Monday: September NAHB Housing Market Index ( consensus 48; prior 49) at 10:00 ET
  • Tuesday: August Housing Starts ( consensus 1.448 mln; prior 1.446 mln) and Building Permits ( consensus 1.610 mln; prior 1.674 mln) at 8:30 ET; and $12 bln 20-yr Treasury bond reopening results at 13:00 ET
  • Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -1.2%) at 7:00 ET; August Existing Home Sales ( consensus 4.70 mln; prior 4.81 mln) at 10:00 ET; weekly crude oil inventories (prior +2.44 mln) at 10:30 ET; and FOMC Rate Decision ( consensus 3.00-3.25%; prior 2.25-2.50%) at 14:00 ET
  • Thursday: Weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 220,000; prior 213,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.403 mln), and Q2 Current Account Balance ( consensus -$260.00 bln; prior -$291.40 bln) at 8:30 ET; August Leading Economic Index ( consensus -0.1%; prior -0.4%) at 10:00 ET; and weekly natural gas inventories (prior +73 bcf) at 10:30 ET
  • Friday: Preliminary September IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 51.5) and preliminary IHS Markit Services PMI (prior 43.7) at 9:45 ET

Global Central Bank Events

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2022.

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