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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.
Jackson Hole, No Fear and The Fed
The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?
Stock markets were rattled after the FOMC minutes were released from the July meeting. By Friday markets had bounced off a one-month low with the top-weighted technology sector leading the way with a post-earnings rally in NVIDIA. Every sector in the S&P 500 closed higher friday. Advancing issues outpaced declining issues by more than a 2:1 margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq a reversal from the day prior. Of note the small cap Russell 2000 popped 1.7% to close back above its 200-day moving average at 2155.
Commodities continued to pullback. The Bloomberg Commodities Index dumped 4.2% this week. WTI crude futures settled sharply lower by $6.30, or 10.6% on the week. Gold futures settled $1,784.00/oz just a modest +0.3% gain for the week. Industrial metals were under heavy liquidation with Palladium crushed 14.3%. Copper fell 5.9%, Lead 3.6%, Nickel 6.1%, Tin 8.7%, and Zinc 3.5%. Iron Ore fell 6.3% (down 38% from May high to a 2021 low) and Steel Rebar 4.5%.
Soft commodities were also under pressure. Soybeans led the way down 9.2%, Wheat dropped 5.9%, Corn 6.3%, S Rubber 4.7%, Coffee 2.5% and Sugar 1.9%.
Commodity currencies as a result were rocked on the downside, the South African rand declined 3.7%, the Australian dollar 3.2%, the New Zealand dollar 2.9% and the Canadian dollar 2.4%,
The back drop to the jitters was telegraphed in the the preliminary August reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 70.20 (consensus 81.20) from the final reading of 81.20 for July. This is the lowest reading since 2011, Lower than pandemic lows, as consumers’ inflation expectations rose.
Wall Street analysts are the most bullish in twenty years, Bloomberg reports about 56% of all recommendations on S&P 500 firms are buys, the most since 2002. Not just in the US, in Europe, about 52% of recommendations on Stoxx 600 firms are buy or equivalent, a 10-year high. In Asia even more so, 75% buy ratings, the highest proportion since at least 2010. A word of caution markets go to where the most pain is, if all the analysts on the Street are bullish, and lets face it most were bearish and saw the end of the world about 2000 S&P points ago. Be careful, be very careful. A simple fact, the last time the S&P 500 Index saw a peak to trough decline of 5% or more was 193 days ago, about twice the long-term average.
Powell is struggling to justify ongoing historic monetary inflation as transitory with intense inflationary moves abound. Perhaps with so many destroyed economically and living on the breadline the Fed is well away they are surviving at best and aware such lack of demand will become deflationary as supplies normalise.
‘Materials shortages, inflation and logistics continue to negatively impact the continuity of supply,’ Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee, said… Prices paid by service providers jumped to 82.3 last month, the highest level since September 2005. Meantime, delivery times lengthened, with a gauge of supplier deliveries rising to its second-highest reading on record.”
Public confidence is eroding sharply with the US Administration and the Fed iseems to be the last hope for many. What happened if the insular American masses gather what is unfolding globally?
The three credit events that have our attention remain our key watches.
Firstly credit spreads on corporate bonds.
“A boom in US corporate borrowing has laid the foundation for a wave of defaults at financially risky companies according to S&P Global Ratings. Sales of low-rated, ‘speculative-grade’ debt have already reached $650bn this year, putting them on track to surpass all-time borrowing records with more than four months left to go in 2021.
The second again was the world’s most indebted developer, China Evergrande Group shares and bonds.
“China Evergrande Group bonds dropped to record lows after reports that creditor lawsuits against the world’s most indebted developer will be consolidated, a step that has preceded several high-profile defaults by Chinese borrowers. Cases related to Evergrande and its affiliates will be centralized in a Guangzhou court, Caixin reported… Speculation about the move triggered a slump in the developer’s bonds late Thursday, with losses deepening after the city of Beijing tightened property curbs and S&P Global Ratings cut its assessment of Evergrande for the second time in as many weeks.
The third was falling bond yields despite heightened inflationary pressures and further price increases.
Ten-year Treasury yields dipped two bps this week to 1.26%, given the shakey China and global market developments the safe haven argument was sullied. This raises the question of how much support the Treasury market has left to offer in the event of an intensifying “risk off” dynamic. There’s always an Ebb and Flow associated with financial instability, and there is a Beijing-directed hiatus in the evolving Credit crisis. With a relatively tranquil week for China (and Asia & EM), Treasuries turned more attentive to U.S. overheating.”
After last week’s FOMC it’s worth reminding ourselves of this insight from the The Economic Affairs Committee of the U.K.’s House of Lords report, “Quantitative Easing: A Dangerous Addiction?”
“No central bank has managed successfully to reverse quantitative easing over the medium to long term. In practice, central banks have engaged in quantitative easing in response to adverse events but have not reversed the policy subsequently. This has had a ratchet effect and it has only served to exacerbate the challenges involved in unwinding the policy. The key issue facing central banks as they look to halt or reverse quantitative easing is whether it will trigger panic in financial markets, with effects that might spill over into the real economy.”
In light of recent ECB and FOMC meet and greets an important realisation that the Central Bankers are well of aware of the consequenses here.
“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.” – MoneyNeverSleeps
There is the prospect of an overheating U.S. economy, but remember we are coming off a low base and the lockdown has decimated many sectors of the economy and people’s lives. The relevaton from the speed of technology adapting and disrupting to a new world with the lockdown is transformative. The shift has enabled and transformed the traditional economy that we measure future outcomes off.
We still need to add almost 20 million jobs in the US alone to get back to par. Europe is in worse shape, so overheating at this point isnt a concern for most policymakers. The unparalleled government monetary inflation has inflated many price levels and distorted asset markets BUT that was intended as to increase confidence in the ‘guts’ of the economy, homeowners and 401k holders. This point is missed by the uber bear community. From here is the big question. The RBA stability report gives us an insight into central banker thinking, they concluded Australian banks are in strong financial position coming out of pandemic and have abundant liquidity and funding,
The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off tis continuos dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.
After the monthly and weekly employment data the market will be going though whether the recent stimulus rounds are working with in the background of the Federal Reserve Continuing to downplay inflation risk.
Of note during the Arctic Blast with the EV mania and the Biden Admin Green deal push we noted the spike in spot Texas electricity prices pushing the cost of electricity not on fixed plans to unheard of levels. Bloomberg reported on recharging a Tesla from about $18 to $900. Yes the price spike was fleeting but it should remind the sane amongst us the broader issue of the disconnect between the push toward electrification and our massively inadequate energy infrastructure. This is the area that needs investment, not just for our glorious EV but for all energy and possible disasters like we just saw.
Comments from Yellen and others on the same page suggest that low rates conveniently push potential debt instability far out into the future. The Fed is poised to expand its balance sheet, by adding liquidity to the tune of $1.5 TN this year with no regard for rampant asset price inflation and bubbles. Now the new administration has control of the blank checkbook and is determined to us it with no long-term thinking or planning; everything is short-term focused. Washington is gambling with our nation’s future, from kicking cans down the road to rolling drums down a hill.
- Part A: Stockmarkets
- Part B: Bonds
- Fed and Banks
- Part C: Commodities
- Energy – Oil and Gas
- Gold and Silver
- Part D: Foreign Exchange
- Geopolitics and Economics
- Economy Week ahead
PART A – Stock Markets
Highlights – USA
- S&P500 declined 0.6% (up 18.3% y-t-d)
- Dow fell 1.1% (up 14.7%)
- Nasdaq100 slipped 0.3% (up 17.1%)
- S&P 400 Midcaps fell 2.0% (up 16.0%)
- Small cap Russell 2000 declined 2.5% (up 9.8%)
- Utilities jumped 2.0% (up 11.2%)
- Transports dropped 2.5% (up 16.4%)
- Banks sank 3.6% (up 27.8%)
- Broker/Dealers lost 3.3% (up 24.6%).
- Semiconductors slumped 2.4% (up 16.5%).
- Biotechs declined 0.6% (up 0.6%).
- While bullion gained $1, the HUI gold index sank 5.9% (down 19.9%).
Highlights – Europe Stocks
- U.K.’s FTSE equities index slumped 1.8% (up 9.7% y-t-d).
- German DAX equities index lost 1.1% (up 15.2%).
- Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index declined 0.9% (up 10.4%).
- Italy’s FTSE MIB index dropped 2.8% (up 16.6%).
Highlights – Asia Stocks
- Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index dropped 3.4% (down 1.6% y-t-d)
- South Korea’s Kospi index sank 3.5% (up 6.5%).
- India’s Sensex equities index slipped 0.2% (up 15.9%).
- China’s Shanghai Exchange fell 2.5% (down 1.3%). .
- Australia’s S&P/ASX200 fell 5 straight days to lose 2.2% for the week, the worst weekly performance since the end of January this year and the biggest losing streak in 18 months, weighed down by NSW’s coronavirus crisis. The falling iron ore price, which supercharged the market for most of the year has hit major caps like RIO and BHP.
Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks
- EM equities softer.
- Brazil’s Bovespa index fell 2.6% (down 0.8%)
- Mexico’s Bolsa was little changed (up 16.7%).
- Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index slipped 0.2% (down 2.2%).
- Russia’s MICEX equities index declined 1.0% (up 16.5%).
IPO and SPAC mania remains in full force.
Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.
Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week
S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis via @KnovaWave
SPX spent the week rebalancing the Chikou with all time highs remaining in the clear channel. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keeps it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun and watch for ABC. No fear is the driving element
The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.
SPX has continued to roll higher since spat the weekly channel it had been tracking since the break of v of (III) or (V). Each new high has evolved after testing the Tenkan. look for failure when that doesn’t hold. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple
Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan. To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.” Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances
A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets.
Nasdaq has been consolidating in a triangle while SPX and Dow catch up , compare the clinical tests of the SPX Tenkan versus Spits of Tenkan to Kijun in NDX which helped fuel the more extreme moves. Watch Chikou for divergence for next major direction
The small cap Russell RUT has been developing a large flag which it spat though last week, only to close above the Tenkan. We need Kijun to close thru to get power to retest highs. Support the cloud should it fail.
The Semiconductor segment represented by $SMH cleanly with Murray Math levels & Tenkan keys. Previous high above +4/8 and Chikou rebalance patterning. Powered by Kijun spit to as the reaction from above reverted with $AMD & $NVDA $LSCC $MXIM accelerating up
Following the announcement of NVDA 4/1 split some levels off the energy break. This week we hit the 50% at $709 fueled by calls being cheap, we got earnings and $TSLA split memories and boom! The AMC meme move also fueled speculatiojn, at least NVDA has more substance than Doge!
Amazon high locked at Kijun seems …MM +3/8 and from there has built a large weekly flag after failing near the previous high. Watch Tenkan through Kijun for a bigger move down. Support is weekly cloud and resistance previous flag and Tenkan.
The ARKK ETF trading clinically, tested triangle breakdown and Tenkan after bouncing off 50 WMA. Support cloud, needs to clear Tenkan to test Kijun for bulls.
US Stocks Watch
Earnings Week Ahead
This three-month period is the second to be compared to year earlier profits that were affected by the pandemic. According to Refinitiv, earnings for the second quarter are looking to be up 78.1%. With the US stock markets at record highs the downside to increasing profit expectations is the potential for some disappointments and that could cause adverse or stalled markets potentially.
Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.
Last week we heard from
Tencent Music, Roblox, Walmart, Home Depot, Agilent, La-Z-Boy, BHP Group,Target, Nvidia, Lowe’s, Cisco Systems, Tencent, TJX, Bath and Body Works, Analog Devices,Applied Materials, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, Petco, Estee Lauder, Kohl’s, Ross Stores, Adtalem,Deere, Foot Locker, Buckle
This week we hear from:
- Monday starts us off with
- Tuesday with Earnings from
- Wednesday Earnings Include
- Thursday Earnings Include
- Friday Earnings include
JD.com, Palo Alto Networks, Madison Square Garden
Best Buy, Bank of Montreal, Nordstrom, Intuit, Urban Outfitters, Toll Brothers, Advanced Auto Parts, Medtronic
Salesforce.com, Royal Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Box, Autodesk, Express, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Shoe Carnival, NetApp, Splunk, Pure Storage
HP, Dell, Gap, Abercrombie and Fitch, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Hain’s Celestial, Ulta Beauty, Peloton, Workday, VMWare, Ollie’s Bargain, Marvell, Toronto-Dominion, Sanderson Farms
These are the highlighted earnings for the US this week. Please check daily schedules for more reports.
US IPO Weekly Recap:
US IPO Weekly Recap: Summer’s last wave with 2 IPOs August 13, 2021
The summer IPO market is wrapping up, and while we could see a few more launches, this past week’s two deals should be some of the last IPOs before fall. SPAC activity continued to bounce back, with 17 blank check IPOs during the week.
After slashing its range, holdover Eliem Therapeutics (ELYM) raised $80 million at a $344 million market cap. Its lead candidates are ETX-810, which is initially being developed for diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain and pain associated with sciatica, and ETX-155, which is initially being developed for major depressive disorder, perimenopausal depression, and focal onset seizures. ETX-810 is currently in two Phase 2a trials, and Eliem plans to initiate two Phase 2a trials for ETX-155. Eliem finished up 16%.
Alabama bank Southern States Bancshares (SSBK) priced at the low end to raise $38 million at a $166 million market cap. Southern States Bank is a full service community bank, serving businesses and individuals through 15 branches across Alabama and Georgia. As of 3/31/21, Southern States had total assets of $1.5 billion, total loans of $1.1 billion, total deposits of $1.3 billion, and total shareholders’ equity of $145 million. Southern States Bancshares finished up 2%.
17 SPACs raised $2.9 billion led by consumer-focused Conyers Park III Acquisition (CPAAU), which raised $350 million.
US IPO Week Ahead:
IPO calendar is quiet amid annual August break August 13, 2021
The IPO market’s annual August lull is in full swing with no IPOs currently scheduled for the week ahead. While the calendar is empty for now, we may see some SPACs join the calendar throughout the week.
We also anticipate filing activity to pick up in the coming weeks ahead of the post-Labor Day rush. Street research is expected for 19 companies in the week ahead, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to seven companies.
As of 8/12/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 0.8% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 18.8%. Renaissance Capital’s IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 9.7% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 9.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.
IPO data via Renaissance Capital
Part B : Bond Markets
Highlights – Treasuries
Why the angst in the bond market?
The After the FOMC presented new economic projections including a forecast of 6.5% for gross domestic product this year with PCE inflation going to 2.4% this year, but falling to 2% next year. Powell reiterated that the Fed sees only a temporary pickup in inflation this year because of the base effects against last year’s numbers when prices fell. The Fed will target an average range of inflation around 2%, meaning it could exceed that threshold for some time which is a change to the Fed’s ground rules. The majority of Fed officials did not see any interest rate hikes through 2023.
What concerns bond holders and impacts stocks over the past weeks is the Fed appears to be too Blaise about inflation. This view got added weight when crude oil hit the highest prices since 2019 after OPEC decided to stay pat on production for April. But since then Crude has fallen over 12% in just a week from those highs. Hence why Powell has said “We’re going to wait to see signs of actual inflation or the appearance of other risks that could threaten the achievement of our goals. And we’ve seen that the economy can sustain exceptionally low levels of unemployment without inflation.”
There is a view that Powell also refuses to be dictated to and set the bond bullies up for failure. The V reversal this month suggests that. Air needs to come out of the market, particularly Tech, this is best illustrated by the ARK Funds and Semi-Conductor SMH ET’s (see below). From here we have another massive $1.9 Trillion stimulus. Is that enough to keep asset prices elevated, hard to fight the Fed and that kind of cash floating around. Watch the argument from analysts that higher yields mean the economy is growing, stocks are value versus hyperinflation is on its way.
Raise your eyes and look at the stopped car in front of you you may want to hit the brakes.The pandemic is not close to our greatest worry, nor is energy it seems. The runaway credit bubble in the era of delusion and entitlement has multiple unintended consequences or are they intended? The stockmarket has lost rationality the danger is should the bubble pop the consequences of a historic debt crisis in a deeply divided nation and unprepared social and geopolitical backdrops could be earth shattering as the Fed disregards asset inflation and bubble dynamics.
- Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $4.278 billion, while junk bond funds posted outflows of $4.0 million (from Lipper).
- Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 0.0425%. Two-year government yields added two bps to 0.23% (up 10bps y-t-d). Five-year T-note yields increased a basis point to 0.78% (up 42bps). Ten-year Treasury yields declined two bps to 1.23% (up 34bps). Long bond yields dropped six bps to 1.87% (up 23bps). Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields added one basis point to 1.79% (up 44bps).
All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported a record $1.4 trillion of corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity, funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. THe combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.
Highlights – Mortgage Market
Unprecedented cash payments by the U.S. government to households, changing consumer preferences and lowest mortgage rates in history have fueled a pandemic boom in housing, the fastest pace of increase on record in data from 1988 and prices surpassing the peak from the last property boom in 2005. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 14.6% in the 12 months through April, according to the latest available numbers, marking the fastest pace of increase on record in data from 1988.
- Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates slipped a basis point to 2.86% (down 13bps y-o-y).
- Fifteen-year rates added one basis point to 2.15% (down 38bps).
- Five-year hybrid ARM rates declined a basis point to 2.43% (down 48bps).
- Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates down three bps to 3.03% (down 2bps).
Highlights – Federal Reserve
- Federal Reserve Credit last week expanded $93.2bn to a record $8.298 TN. Over the past 101 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $4.572 TN, or 123%. Fed Credit inflated $5.487 Trillion, or 195%, over the past 458 weeks.
- Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week increased $5.9bn to $3.502 TN.
- Custody holdings were up $85bn, or 2.5%, y-o-y.
- Total money market fund assets rose $12.5bn to $4.522 TN. Total money funds declined $22bn y-o-y, or 0.5%.
- Total Commercial Paper declined $3.3bn to $1.138 TN. CP was up $132bn, or 13.1%, year-over-year.
We do know we have massive speculation pockets, viz a viz the Meme or GameStop, Weed stocks and cryptocurrency spectacles in just the matter of weeks. The Fed is today throwing additional fuel on historic speculative manias.
- The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure.
Highlights – European Bonds
- Greek 10-year yields added a basis point to 0.56% (down 7bps y-t-d).
- Ten-year Portuguese yields were unchanged at 0.11% (up 8bps).
- Italian 10-year yields were unchanged at 0.55% (unchanged).
- Spain’s 10-year yields slipped a basis point to 0.21% (up 16bps).
- German bund yields fell three bps to negative 0.50% (up 7bps).
- French yields declined two bps to negative 0.15% (up 19bps).
- The French to German 10-year bond spread widened one to 35 bps.
- U.K. 10-year gilt yields fell five bps to 0.52% (up 33bps).
- U.K.’s FTSE equities index slumped 1.8% (up 9.7% y-t-d).
Highlights – Asian Bonds
- Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields declined two bps to 0.01% (down 1 bp y-t-d).
Part C: Commodities
- The Bloomberg Commodities Index dropped 4.2% (up 16.8% y-t-d).
- WTI crude sank $6.30 to $62.14 (up 28%).
- Gasoline lost 10.6% (up 44%),
- Natural Gas slipped 0.3% (up 52%).
- Copper dropped 5.9% (up 17%).
- Wheat fell 5.9% (up 14%).
- Corn sank 6.3% (up 11%).
- Bitcoin gained $1,645 this week to $49,248 (up 69%).
- Risk markets continue to respond to a Conronvirus outbreak and failed negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.
- U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.
- Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the ninth week in a row.
BDI Freight Index
- The Baltic Exchange Dry Index surged 3% to 4,092 on Friday, its highest since mid-2010 and extending gains for a ninth straight session up 14.8% for the week attributed to an overall rebound in commodities demand and shipping constraints, especially in China.
- Capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes advanced 5% to a more than 11-year high at 5,997
- Panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, rose 0.8% to its highest in more than a month at 3,785.
- Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose about 39 points to a fresh all-time high of 3,276.
- Source: Baltic Exchange
Copper has been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities but were down to an over 4-month low of $4 per pound amid a stronger dollar, demand concerns from the resurgence in Covid-19 and easing supply disruptions. The weekly channel since the low captured the move and failure fed the fall after the power spits of +8/8 and +2/8 were rebalanced by the Tenkan breaking the Kijun after the H&S break towards the 50wma
US Crude Oil (WTI)
4 Hour:: After WTI Oil tested the breakdown from July 14, accelerating down after the Tenkan crossed the Kijun impulsively thru the cloud to spit 0/8 and back to the cloud. Continue to watch Kijun reactions and Murrey Math confluence.
Daily: Last week WTI rebound in 3 waves sharply reversed and closed at the daily cloud base, we asked the question is this a 1-2 or the C of the correction off the $76 highs? Recall that WTI sharply corrected in 3 waves the May breakup at -1/8 and the daily cloud (where broke the double top successfully to close above +2/8 multiple resistance). We since collapsed back thru tenkan and kijun as the market rebalanced at the Chikou. We got a repeat as fractals continue with oil.
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Resistance is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan & prev high confluence. ;
Weekly: WTI Fell back through the weekly Tenkan as it corrects off previous highs in clinical ABC negating at a rebalanced Chikou indicative of crowd behavior around $70 strike and 50% fib at 70.29 over 7/8. Recall first test we didn’t quite test Kijun and closed right above it at week’s end, this week we did. Reflect on series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma It must retain this energy to take out new highs.
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Daily: US Natural Gas failed at a double top around $4.20 and the Tenkan & Kijun as it builds a pennant . The move after completing the ( C of 4 bullish scenario has played out the consolidation phase since it completed its IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Tenkan, Kijun resistance and 50dma support. On the way up it accelerated through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and new highs, we are testing that break in a pennant ABC. Previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and 8/8 and new highs underscore the structure that fed the move and is key longer term.
Weekly: Natural continues to move in a series of 3’s spitting the key 50% as Chikou rebalances. Recall the impulse wave powered from the spit of 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan and bounced off the 50wma. Breaking recent highs on its 3rd attempt. A series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is Fib/Murrey confluence.
Key Energy Reports
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Build of 49 Bcf in Natural Gas Inventories
- Around The Barrel – Crude Stocks at Cushing Lowest Since Jan 2020
- Halliburton Earnings Rise as Multi Year Upcycle Unfolds
- UAE and Saudi Arabia Reach Compromise For OPEC+ To Boost Oil Production
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report June 2021
- Spot Gold was little changed at $1,781 (down 6.2%).
- Silver fell 3.0% to $23.03 (down 12.8%).
Gold vulnerability remains, hanging on at base of weekly cloud after another rejection of the tenkan, Kihun and 50wma after wave (ii) alt gains favor. Still listless after manic rise to +5/8 weekly rebalance of Chikou in 5 waves. To be bullish we would need to get and stay above the cloud. Murrey Math resistance, watch Fibs & Chikou.
Silver is back at the cloud spitting 50wma providing support after reversed with a double top. The weekly Tenkan crossing the Kijun signaled downside and is now resistance. Major support is the 50wma
Part D: Forex Markets
John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
- For the week,the U.S.Dollar Index gained 1.1% to 93.50 (up 4.0% y-t-d)
- Majors for the week For the week on the downside, the Australian dollar 3.2%, the Canadian dollar 2.4%, the British pound 1.8%, the euro 0.8%, the Japanese yen 0.2% and the Swiss franc 0.2%.
- Minors for the week for the week on the downside, the South African rand declined 3.7%, the New Zealand dollar 2.9%, the Norwegian krone 2.5%, the Brazilian real 2.5%, the Mexican peso 2.4%, the Swedish krona 1.8%, the South Korean won 0.9%, the Singapore dollar 0.5%. The Chinese renminbi declined 0.37% versus the dollar (up 0.40% y-t-d).
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar has corrected in 3 waves since completing a 5 at the pysch 80 level and it back break retest of wave 1 and the weekly cloud as one would expect after it completed 5 waves in emotive fashion. The Australian dollar fell to its lowest value since December under 73 US cents. Resistance the Tenkan and Kijun like many commodities. The AUDUSD old three year high of 0.7820 from January 6 is a key option energy point playing out.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The Kiwi mirrored the AUD in its wave (iii) spit and has corrected at the cloud much of the FOMO muster wave and retested the 50% Fib & 4/8 confluence. Kijun and Tenkan Resistance, which is pivotal. Support previous break spits.
Canadian Dollar – USDCAD
The Loonie is holding the tenkan after a 3 year high in June and corrected that in 3 waves led by the AUD and NZD. #oil price impacting direction. Watch flat Kijun and Tenkan at -1/8. Use Fibs for support and resistance.
Euro – EURUSD
Euro continues to correct in what seems like eternal flags in the channel. We watch if Kijun (pink) testing Tenkan (orange) creates any impulse as #EURUSD consolidates in the cloud. Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility.
British Pound – USDGBP
British pound classic retest of daily cloud break with magnet pull of cloud twist after ABC correction – will need Tenkan to break through Kijun for more strength. The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.
EuroPound – EURGBP
Back testing tenkan in a C or 3 after inconclusive X – symbolic of BREXIT? Kijun, 50wma and clouds resistance.
Japanese Yen – USDJPY
USDJPY continues to test wave i after the recent weakness with Treasury yields. The 108.00 level should remain massive support for dollar-yen. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun as it breaks through the old channel. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 4/8 8/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off
Mexican Peso USDMXN
The Peso continues in the long triangle and consolidated despite outside uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.
Turkish Lire USDTRY
The Turkish Lire after falling in 5 waves closed under the Tenkan with the weekly cloud Kijun and 50wma below. The cloud and gap below offer targets with resistance tankan and USDTRY highs.
Bitcoin has corrected impulsively since completing 5 waves up at +2/8 Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we saw extreme volatility to the top of the cloud which is now key as to what the recent bottom marked. Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking . (Recall what happened after the CME and CBOE futures starts)
We have seen what you would expect from a 5 wave impulse peak, a violent correction or completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.
On the Risk Radar
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Economic and Geopolitical Watch
Each Thursday the Labor Department reports high numbers of Americans that applied for unemployment benefits. With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and the big question is will they come back?
August 10 – Reuters (Makini Brice and Susan Cornwell): “Hours after the U.S. Senate approved a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint chock-full of investments in new domestic programs, fissures emerged between the moderate and liberal wings of the Democratic Party over the size and scope of the spending. Senator Joe Manchin… issued a warning shortly after the Senate early on Wednesday passed the budget deal here that would carry out President Joe Biden’s top priorities. Manchin, who often acts as a bridge between his party and Republicans, voiced concerns about potentially ‘grave consequences’ for the nation’s debt as well as Washington’s ability to respond to other potential crises.”
August 10 – Wall Street Journal (Nick Timiraos): “Members of President Biden’s economic team generally support nominating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to a second term, but growing resistance from prominent Democrats including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) could lead to his replacement… Mr. Powell… has received high marks from some Democrats for steering the central bank toward a paradigm shift that has placed greater attention on reducing unemployment. That coincided last year with a forceful response to the coronavirus pandemic. But some progressives are unhappy with his bent toward easing financial regulations that were put in place after the 2008 crisis and think the central bank should have someone more in sync with Democratic politics in charge.”
The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences In a fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.
August 8 – Axios (Rebecca Falconer): “More than 100 large wildfires are burning across nearly 2.3 million acres of the U.S. West, as forecasters warn Americans to brace for another extreme heat wave this week. Driving the news: ‘Widespread air quality alerts and scattered Red Flag Warnings stretch from the Northwest and Northern Rockies to the High Plains, as well as throughout parts of central California,’ the National Weather Service said…”
August 11 – Associated Press (Nicholas K. Geranios): “The wheat harvest on Marci Green’s farm doesn’t usually begin until late August, but a severe drought stunted this year’s crop and her crews finished harvesting last week because she didn’t want what had grown so far to shrivel and die in the heat. It’s the same story across the wheat country of eastern Washington state, a vast expanse of seemingly endless stretches of flatlands with rolling hills along its edges that produces the nation’s fourth largest wheat crop. It’s been devastated by a drought the National Weather Service has classified as ‘exceptional’ and the worst since 1977. ‘This is definitely the worst crop year we have had since we started farming 35 years ago,’ said Green, whose family is the sixth generation on the same farming land just south of the city of Spokane.”
July 24 – Bloomberg: “Extreme weather is slamming crops across the globe, bringing with it the threat of further food inflation at a time costs are already hovering near the highest in a decade and hunger is on the rise. Brazil’s worst frost in two decades brought a deadly blow to young coffee trees in the world’s biggest grower. Flooding in China’s key pork region inundated farms and raised the threat of animal disease. Scorching heat and drought crushed crops on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border. And in Europe, torrential rains sparked the risk of fungal diseases for grains and stalled tractors in soaked fields.”
June 4 – CNBC (Emma Newburger): “Nearly three-fourths of the U.S. West is grappling with the most severe drought in the recorded history of the U.S. Drought Monitor, as hot and arid conditions are set to exacerbate the threat of wildfires and water supply shortages this summer. Parts of California, Nevada and Washington experienced sweltering triple-digit temperatures over the past week amid the drought… Conditions this spring are much worse than a year ago. In fact, nearly half of the continental U.S. is in a moderate to exceptional drought, marking the most significant spring drought in the country since 2013, according to… the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”
June 10 – Reuters (Andrea Januta and Daniel Trotta): “The reservoir created by Hoover Dam… has sunk to its lowest level ever, underscoring the gravity of the extreme drought across the U.S. West. Lake Mead, formed in the 1930s from the damming of the Colorado River at the Nevada-Arizona border about 30 miles (50 km) east of Las Vegas, is the largest reservoir in the United States. It is crucial to the water supply of 25 million people including in the cities of Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson and Las Vegas. As of 11 p.m. PDT Wednesday, the lake surface fell to 1,071.56 feet above sea level, dipping below the previous record low set on July 1, 2016.”
June 18 – Wall Street Journal (Katherine Blunt and Jim Carlton): “States across the West are at risk of electricity shortages this summer as a crippling drought reduces the amount of water available to generate hydroelectric power. Some of the region’s largest reservoirs are at historically low levels after a dry winter and spring reduced the amount of snowpack and precipitation feeding rivers and streams. The conditions are especially dire in drought-stricken California, where officials say the reservoir system has seen an unprecedented loss of runoff this spring—800,000 acre-feet, or enough to supply more than a million households for a year.”
June 16 – CNBC (Emma Newburger): “An extreme heat wave gripping the western United States will intensify and spread this week, creating dangerous conditions amid the worst drought in the last two decades and raising concerns about severe wildfires and electrical grid failures. More than 40 million people in the country are forecast to experience triple-digit temperatures this week, and roughly 200 million people are projected to see temperatures over 90 degrees Fahrenheit. More than three-fourths of the West is in severe drought… Temperatures in some areas could surpass 120 degrees, and excessive-heat warnings are in place for several states. Nevada and Arizona are forecast to see record temperatures of 125 and 128 degrees, respectively.”
August 11 – Reuters: “Taliban fighters could isolate Afghanistan’s capital in 30 days and possibly take it over within 90, a U.S. defence official cited U.S. intelligence as saying, as the resurgent militants made more advances across the country. The official… said the new assessment of how long Kabul could stand was a result of the Taliban’s rapid gains as U.S.-led foreign forces leave. ‘But this is not a foregone conclusion,’ the official added, saying that the Afghan security forces could reverse the momentum by putting up more resistance.”
August 10 – Financial Times (Kathrin Hille and Henry Foy): “Russian forces are participating in a regular Chinese military exercise for the first time this week, stoking concerns among western analysts that the two US adversaries are developing joint operational capabilities. Joint Western 2021, a drill in the western region of Ningxia involving more than 10,000 troops, focuses on early warning and reconnaissance, electronic warfare and joint attacks, according to statements from the Chinese and Russian defence ministries.”
August 12 – US News WR (Paul D. Shinkman): “China is prepared to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate ruler of Afghanistan if it succeeds in toppling the Western-backed government in Kabul, U.S. News has learned, a prospect that undercuts the Biden administration’s remaining source of leverage over the insurgent network as it continues its startling campaign to regain control.”
August 10 – Newsweek (John Feng): “China said… it’s recalling its ambassador to Lithuania in an ongoing diplomatic spat over the planned opening of a de facto Taiwanese embassy in Vilnius. Taiwan has 23 representative offices in Europe, where the island nation’s only formal diplomatic relationship is with the Holy See. All its missions carry the deliberately ambiguous language of ‘Taipei’ instead of Taiwan or its formal title, the Republic of China.””
- Trade wars persist between Australia and China. The largest exporter of commodities and the worlds largest importer of commodities. China is experiencing record cold weather and it’s beligerance is hurting shooting itself in the foot. Regional partners such as Japan and India have supported Australia’s standing up to Chinese bullying.
- In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..We are awaiting Biden’s offical resposne.
- Chairman Chi and President Biden had a phone hook last month week with the US saying they will review all policies but tariffs to stand in the meantime. China continued it’s theats on the matter.
Fat Tail Virus Risk
- August 13 – USA Today (Elizabeth Weise): “Since July 1, there’s been a 700% increase in the week-over-week average of COVID-19 infections in the United States… The information was presented Friday at CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meeting… ‘There’s no doubt we’re seeing a surge in cases now,’ said Dr. William Moss, a professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The United States was at a low point in new cases in late June, with an average of about 10,000 a day. Today the average is closer to 125,000 a day, he said.”
- August 13 – CNN (Virginia Langmaid): “Florida reported a new record number of Covid-19 cases Friday — more over the past week than any other seven-day period during the pandemic. Data published Friday by the state health department showed 151,415 new Covid-19 cases over the past week, for an average of 21,630 cases each day. The previous record high was just a week ago — on August 6 — with 134,711 total cases reported over seven days, for an average of 19,244 cases each day.”
- Fauci believes 70%-85% of the population must be vaccinated to reach herd immunity.
The major money cents banks released earnings with many record results for Q1. Mainly from trading and fees from IPO’s and SPAC’s. Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.
- Goldman Sachs Trading and SPACs Investment Banking Fees Pull in Record Revenue
- Wells Fargo Beat Earnings With $1.05 Billion Reserve Release
- JPMorgan Earnings Boosted By Trading and Release of Loan Loss Reserves
- Blackrock Earnings Soar As Assets Under Management Rose to Record $9 Trillion
- PNC Bank Earnings Beat Ahead of Completing BBVA USA Bancshares Acquisition
- Citigroup Beats Earnings on Reserve Release, Exiting Most Consumer Banking in Asia, Europe, and Middle East
- Bank of America Earnings Rise With Net Interest Yield and Release of Loan loss Reserves
- Morgan Stanley Dealmaking and Trading Drive Record Profits
Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don’t exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.
Potentially the top six banks can buy back $11 billion in the first-quarter. Goldman Sachs shares after the announcement led the rally with a 7.7% increase. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan jumped 6.4% and 4.9% at intraday highs. Within minutes of the announcement all three banks have announced plans to resume buybacks in the new year.
Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose. otal Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $737 billion during Q3 to a record $60.113 trillion.
Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.
“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”
The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan
With the focus on tapering and inflation Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak Friday at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. Other important releases include the ECB meeting minutes, Q2 GDP updates for the US, Mexico and Germany, and flash Markit PMI data for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia. Investors also await data on US personal spending and durable goods orders, Eurozone consumer morale, and China industrial profits. Those will be closely watched with US jobless claims, existing home sales are released Monday; new home sales Tuesday and durable goods Wednesday. Friday has personal consumption expenditures data and the inflation index, closely watched by the Fed. Earnings are also expected from companies including Best Buy and Nordstrom on Tuesday, Salesforce.com on Wednesday and HP and Dell Technologies on Thursday..
The expectation is that the Fed will announce in September or later in the fall that it will taper back its $120 billion a month bond program, starting at the end of the year or early next year. The tapering is expected to be gradual and continue for 10 months or more. The Fed’s own forecasts show its first rate hikes happening in 2023. More information could come from the Fed when officials gather for their annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the end of the month. But action is not expected to be taken until the September meeting or later.
A ton of retail news in the week ahead with the consumer the driver of 70% of the U.S. economy this is not unimportant. The Census Bureau will release July’s monthly retail sales report Tuesday morning. That same day, retail heavyweights Walmart and Home Depot report earnings. Macy’s, Target, TJX and Lowe’s are also among retailers reporting in the coming week. Investors will be watching for updates on what retailers are facing in the job market and how they are handling rising prices. They will also be listening for any update on consumer behavior with the spread of the delta variant of Covid.
The RBA will also be releasing policy meeting minutes, while central banks in China, New Zealand and Indonesia meet to set interest rates. Other important releases to follow include China retail sales and industrial production; Canada and UK inflation data and retail trade; Japan and Eurozone Q2 GDP updates; and Australia employment figures.
Central Banker and Geopolitics Watch speeches, reports and rate moves.
Monday: August 16 2021
Tuesday August 17 2021
- 13:30 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell town hall with educators and students on the Fed and economic education
- 15:45 Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
Wednesday August 11 2021
- 14:00 p.m. Fed meeting minutes
Thursday August 12 2021
- None seen
Friday August 5 2021
- None seen
Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.
Economic Events in the Week Ahead:
Sunday, August 22, 2021
- 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
- 19:00 AUD Services PMI
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 20:30 JPY Services PMI (Aug)
Monday, August 22, 2021
- 01:00 SGD CPI (YoY) (Jul)
- 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (Aug)
- 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Aug)
- 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Composite PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Aug)
- 05:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Jun)
- 05:30 ZAR Mining Production (Jun)
- 06:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Jul)
- Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Aug)
- 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)
- 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Aug)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 17:00 KRW Consumer Confidence (Aug)
- 18:45 NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2)
Tuesday, August 24, 2021
- 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
- 02:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
- 06:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug)
- 08:30 CAD Corporate Profits (QoQ)
- 08:30 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
- 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
- 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)
- 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Aug)
- 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Aug)
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 17:00 KRW Manufacturing BSI Index (Sep)
- 18:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Jul)
- 19:55 AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
- 21:30 AUD Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q2)
Wednesday August 25, 2021
- 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jul)
- 01:00 JPY Leading Index
- 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
- 04:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug)
- 04:30 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
- 13:30 BRL Foreign Exchange Flows
- 19:50 JPY Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
- 19:55 AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
- 21:00 KRW Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
- 21:30 AUD Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q2)
- 21:30 AUD Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2)
- 21:30 AUD Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2)
Thursday, August 26, 2021
- 01:00 SGD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)
- 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Sep)
- 02:30 CHF Employment Level (Q2)
- 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (Aug)
- 02:45 EUR French Industrial Investments (Q3)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Private Sector Loans (YoY)
- 04:30 HKD Trade Balance
- 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices (Q2)
- 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2)
- 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
- 08:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)
- 08:30 USD GDP Sales (Q2) 7.9%
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD PCE Prices (Q2) 6.5%
- 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q2)
- 09:00 USD Jackson Hole Symposium
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Aug)
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
- 11:00 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
- 19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Aug)
- 21:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
- 21:30 CNY Chinese Industrial profit (YoY) (Jul)
Friday, August 20, 2021
- 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
- 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Jul)
- 08:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM)
- 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
- 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 CAD RMPI (MoM) (Jul)
- 09:00 USD Jackson Hole Symposium
- 10:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 1
- 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (YoY) (Jun)
- 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (Jun)
- 12:00 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Jul)
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats.
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