Traders Market Weekly: April 24-30 2021

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 Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Big Tech, Record Highs and Big Oil

The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?


The S&P continued to melt up and we finally soar life in the small caps this week. After the large money center banks reported, with many posting record profits and revenues, mainly due to trading and investment bank fees from IPOs and SPACs we have seen new highs. Though we did see a one day sell off when Biden said he would raise taxes on the rich but the market quickly realised the wealthy in a career politician’s world is over $1 million and if happening it all would be a while.  The disconnect between politicians, Wall Street and main street is for all to see and larger than ever since the pandemic.

Last week digital banking platform Coinbase went public on Wednesday trading under the symbol $COIN. The Nasdaq’s first major direct listing rose as high as $429.54 briefly giving it a market value over $100 billion. However it quickly lost a quarter of that before days end. That and the spectacular rise of Doge, which was created as a joke were what it seemed everyone was talking about. Each week the markets feel more and more like we are the racetrack. Since then we saw a one day collapse of around 25% on bitcoin and more on other digital coins.

Three weeks gone and the Archegos collapse still has Credit Suisse trying to offload stock. So many questions of why from all those involved, risk management, profit taking, bankers greed that even Gordon Gekko would be ashamed of. It is clear many are caught short as the S&P has effectively not allowed a pull back since the strong US Jobs report released Good Friday. Yet the Russell fails to bounce, possibly more funds caught out unloading. Anything change I wonder?

Looking through the banking reports one that stood out was BlackRock’s assets under management rose to a record $9 trillion in the quarter, compared with $6.47 trillion a year earlier. Fixed income accounted for a bulk of the inflows, as expectations of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve triggered large moves in debt markets and pushed up U.S. Treasury yields. Amazing amounts of money under a select few controllers.

Still in the background we have mounting inflationary pressures globally.  The RBA, ECB and the Fed have been somewhat dismissive of inflationary risks. There are many theorys here from the peanut gallery, from end of the world implosion to we are locked in a deflationary spiral.

We are seeing inflation increase globally. Recall last week the ISM Non-Manufacturing (services) Index surged to a record high 63.7, with all 18 industry groups reporting higher prices (up from 67% in December). The ISM Non-Manufacturing Price Index jumped to 74, the high going back to July 2008. In China we saw inflation rise at both the consumer and producer level. Even Canada, an economy that has been particuarly bad hit saw its Ivey PMI jump to the highest since April 2018 at 72.9.

Last week we had; US housing starts soar 19.4% in March to the highest since June 2006 helping US consumer sentiment higher with one year inflation expectations the highest since 2012.

Over in China first quarter GDP grew at the strongest pace on record at 18.3%. In Australia employment surges as participation hits all time high. Back in America energy prices pressure Consumer inflation rate to over 2 year high, The Bank of South Korea left rates unchanged citing exports leading the recovery

There is the prospect of an overheating U.S. economy, but remember we are coming off a low base and the lockdown has decimated many sectors of the economy and people’s lives. The relevaton from the speed of technology adapting and disrupting to a new world with the lockdown is transformative. The shift has enabled and transformed the traditional economy that we measure future outcomes off.

We still need to add almost 20 million jobs in the US alone to get back to par. Europe is in worse shape, so overheating at this point isnt a concern for most policymakers.  The unparalleled government monetary inflation has inflated many price levels and distorted asset markets BUT that was intended as to increase confidence in the ‘guts’ of the economy, homeowners and 401k holders. This point is missed by the uber bear community. From here is the big question. The RBA stability report gives us an insight into central banker thinking, they concluded Australian banks are in strong financial position coming out of pandemic and have abundant liquidity and funding,

The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off tis continuos dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.

After the monthly and weekly employment data the market will be going though whether the recent stimulus rounds are working with in the background of the Federal Reserve Continuing to downplay inflation risk.. We continued to see more rotation from tech to value stock, but a slower pace.

Why the angst in the bond market?

The FOMC presented new economic projections including a forecast of 6.5% for gross domestic product this year with PCE inflation going to 2.4% this year, but falling to 2% next year. Powell reiterated that the Fed sees only a temporary pickup in inflation this year because of the base effects against last year’s numbers when prices fell. The Fed will target an average range of inflation around 2%, meaning it could exceed that threshold for some time which is a change to the Fed’s ground rules. The majority of Fed officials did not see any interest rate hikes through 2023.  With the passing of the $1.9 trillion splurge a FOMO surge lifted stocks last week but now all eyes on yields dampened the enthusiasm.

What concerns bond holders and impacts stocks over the past weeks is the Fed appears to be too Blaise about inflation. This view got added weight when crude oil hit the highest prices since 2019 after OPEC decided to stay pat on production for April. But since then Crude has fallen over 12% in just a week from those highs. Hence why Powell has said “We’re going to wait to see signs of actual inflation or the appearance of other risks that could threaten the achievement of our goals. And we’ve seen that the economy can sustain exceptionally low levels of unemployment without inflation.”

There is a view that Powell also refuses to be dictated to and set the bond bullies up for failure. The V reversal this month suggests that. Air needs to come out of the market, particularly Tech, this is best illustrated by the ARK Funds and Semi-Conductor SMH ET’s (see below). From here we have another massive $1.9 Trillion stimulus. Is that enough to keep asset prices elevated, hard to fight the Fed and that kind of cash floating around. Watch the argument from analysts that higher yields mean the economy is growing, stocks are value versus hyperinflation is on its way.

After being up over 90% Bitcoin reversed sharply from $44,000 to over $63,000. One could argue bonds and crypto are at the opposite ends of the spectrum, but all they in 2021? Astonishing and symptomatic of so many confluences which we will discuss later. These added further price pressures on food and energy come after we discussed inflationary pressures are building in the US, and a truly tidal wave of Treasuries is in the pipeline. Not hard to grasp Bond market nervousness. 

Raise your eyes and look at the stopped car in front of you you may want to hit the brakes.The pandemic is not close to our greatest worry, nor is energy it seems. The  runaway credit bubble in the era of delusion and entitlement has multiple unintended consequences or are they intended? The stockmarket has lost rationality  the danger is should the bubble pop the consequences of a historic debt crisis in a deeply divided nation and unprepared social and geopolitical backdrops could be earth shattering as the Fed disregards asset inflation and bubble dynamics.

Of note during the Arctic Blast with the EV mania and the Biden Admin Green deal push we noted the spike in spot Texas electricity prices pushing the cost of electricity not on fixed plans to unheard of levels. Bloomberg reported on recharging a Tesla from about $18 to $900. Yes the price spike was fleeting but it should remind the sane amongst us the broader issue of the disconnect between the push toward electrification and our massively inadequate energy infrastructure. This is the area that needs investment, not just for our glorious EV but for all energy and possible disasters like we just saw.

Comments from Yellen and others on the same page suggest that low rates conveniently push potential debt instability far out into the future. The Fed is poised to expand its balance sheet, by adding liquidity to the tune of $1.5 TN this year with no regard for rampant asset price inflation and bubbles. Now the new administration has control of the blank checkbook and is determined to us it with no long-term thinking or planning; everything is short-term focused. Washington is gambling with our nation’s future, from kicking cans down the road to rolling drums down a hill. 


  • Part A: Stockmarkets
  • Part B: Bonds
  • Fed and Banks
  • Part C: Commodities
  • Energy – Oil and Gas
  • Gold and Silver
  • Part D: Foreign Exchange
  • Geopolitics and Economics
  • Economy Week ahead


PART A – Stock Markets

Highlights – USA

  • The S&P500 was little changed (up 11.3% y-t-d), 
  • Dow slipped 0.5% (up 11.2%).
  • Utilities fell 1.1% (up 5.8%).
  • Banks were unchanged (up 25.6%),
  • Broker/Dealers declined 0.7% (up 21.6%).
  • Transports rose 1.4% (up 21.0%).
  • S&P 400 Midcaps gained 0.9% (up 19.0%), 
  • Russell 2000 added 0.4% (up 15.0%).
  • Nasdaq100 fell 0.7% (up 8.2%).
  • The Semiconductors dropped 1.7% (up 14.4%).
  • The Biotechs advanced 1.5% (down 1.9%).
  • While bullion was little changed, the HUI gold index declined 0.6% (down 3.1%).

US indices W 4 23 2021 

Highlights – Europe Stocks

  • U.K.’s FTSE equities index fell 1.2% (up 7.4% y-t-d).
  • France’s CAC40 rose 1.9% (up 13.3%).
  • The German DAX equities index gained 1.5% (up 12.7%).
  • Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index increased 0.6% (up 6.7%).
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB index rose 1.3% (up 11.3%).

 Highlights – Asia Stocks

  • Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index dropped 2.2% (up 5.7% y-t-d).
  • South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.4% (up 10.9%).
  • India’s Sensex equities index dropped 2.0% (up 0.3%).
  • China’s Shanghai Exchange rallied 1.4% (unchanged).
  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose to 68 points or almost 1 per cent on the week. The broader All Ordinaries rose 8 points or 0.11% to a second-straight record close. Advances in Newcrest, Rio Tinto, BHP and CSL outweighed declines in Woodside, Fortescue and most of the banks.

 Highlights – Emerging Stocks 

  • EM equities were mostly mixed
  • Brazil’s Bovespa index declined 0.5% (up 1.3%),
  • Mexico’s Bolsa gained 0.7% (up 11.4%).
  • South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.4% (up 10.9%). India’s Sensex equities index dropped 2.0% (up 0.3%). China’s Shanghai Exchange rallied 1.4% (unchanged).
  • Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index sank 4.5% (down 8.9%).
  • Russia’s MICEX equities index was unchanged (up 9.4%).

IPO and SPAC mania is back in full force with last years  Snowflake an indication of and video game maker Roblox going public the most recent big hit.

From rebalance as a natural reversion after the bull mania we have surged with another speculative rush. This after Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. IS that enough to rebalnce and go higher? The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998,  soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.

Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

 Top 5 SPX D 4 23 2021

S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis via @KnovaWave

SPX rallied again to new all time highs, after testing and spitting tenkan san & 8/8 Murrey Math at the Daily Cloud & with a positive Chikou retest. We have a number of alternatives of degree (iii) or (iv) of 5, Keep it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun as Chikou rebalances.

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages.  Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

 SPX D 4 23 2021

Weekly SPX spat the break channel it had been tracing since the break of v of (III) or (V). Key was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

SPX W 4 23 2021 

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets.



 Nas D 4 23 2021

Russell 2000

 R2000 D 4 23 2021

Semiconductors SMH

Watching Semiconductors cleanly with Murrey Math levels and Tenkan – keys are previous high at +1/8 and Chikou rebalance patterning. Weekly +2/8 around 250 key number recognition factor also.

 SMH W 4 23 2021

NVidia $NVDA

 NVDA W 4 23 2021 1

Apple $AAPL

 AAPL W 4 23 2021

Amazon $AMZN

Amazon high was MM +3/8 and from there has built a large weekly flag which it closed under after breaking the Tenkan and Kijun, watch if Kijun closes through Tehkan for a bigger move.

 AMZN W 4 23 2021


 ARKK W 4 23 2021

US Stocks Watch


Earnings Week Ahead

First-quarter corporate earnings likely benefited from the firming economic backdrop. Over the last several months, analysts have raised their aggregate S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by a record 6.0% according to Factset. With the US stock markets at record highs the downside to increasing profit expectations is the potential for some disappointments and that could cause adverse or stalled market to potentially.

This three-month period is the first to be compared to year earlier profits that were affected by the pandemic. Profit growth for the S&P 500 is a stunning 30.2% for the quarter so far, based on actual reports and estimates. That makes it the best three-month period since the third quarter of 2010, according to FactSet. Last quarter when the banks big banks kicked off 4th-quarter earnings reports on Jan 15, helped to set the tone for the broader U.S. stock market Q1 has kicked off with the big banks setting the tone pushing the S&P 500 to record highs.

Banks reaped the rewards of the initial public offerings and record corporate borrowings during the pandemic. Investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.

Last week we heard from Coca-Cola, IBM, United Airlines, Zions Bancorp, FNB, Steel Dynamics, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers, Procter and Gamble, Netflix, Abbott Labs, CSX, Lockheed Martin, Intuitive Surgical, Tenet Healthcare, Philip Morris, Northern Trust, Fifth Third, KeyCorp, Comerica Biogen, Interactive Brokers, Kinder Morgan, Verizon, Chipotle, Whirlpool, Nasdaq, Baker Hughes, Anthem, Netgear, Spirit Airlines, Canadian Pacific Railway, Lam Research, Discover Financial, SLM, Halliburton, Knight-Swift Transportation, AT&T, Intel, D.R. Horton, American Airlines, Union Pacific, Alaska Air, Pentair, Tractor Supply, Celanese, Seagate Technology Biogen, Dow, Credit Suisse, SAP, Boston Beer, Mattel, Snap, Valero Energy, Freeport-McMoRan, Quest Diagnostics, Southwest Airlines, American Express, Honeywell, Daimler, Regions Financial, Schlumberger, Kimberly-Clark

This week we hear from:

  • Monday starts us off with
  • $OTIS OTIS $CHKP Check Point $LII Lennox $ACI Albertsons $PFPT Proofpoint $NYCB $CBU $BOH $DORM Dorman $FBP $FBC $LKFN Lakeland $ARLP Alliance Resource $HBT $PMBC $BCLI Brainstorm Cell METX Meten $VALE $HSII Heidrick & Struggles $TSLA Tesla $CNI Canadian National Railway $NXPI NXP Semiconductors $CDNS Cadence $LU Lufax $SBAC Sba Communications $AMP Ameriprise $ARE $SSNC $SUI $BRO $MASI $PKG $UHS $MKSI $AGNC $AXTA $OMF $MEDP $AMKR $TNET $SSD $JBT $WRI $PCH $IBTX $CATY $AIN $RRC Range Resources $TLF

  • Tuesday with earnings from
  • 3M Alphabet, AMD Starbuck Texas Instruments Microsoft Stryker GE Piinterest Corning

  • Wednesday Earnings Include
  • Apple Qualcomm Facebook eBay ADP Sirius XM Boeing Yum Brands Ford General Dynamics Spotify ServiceNow Shopify

  • Thursday Earnings Include
  • Apple Qualcomm Facebook eBay ADP Sirius XM Boeing Yum Brands Ford General Dynamics Spotify ServiceNow Shopify Thursday, April 29 Amazon Altria Bristol-Myers Squibb Gilead Kraft Heinz Cirrus Logic Caterpillar Northrop Grumman Nio Twitter

  • Friday Earnings include
  • Phillips 66 Exxon Mobil Colgate-Palmolive Chevron

IPO Week Ahead

US IPO Week Ahead: April closes out with a diverse 7 IPO week

With the end of April on the horizon, seven IPOs are currently slated to raise $2.2 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group features a home care provider, a talent agency, and more.

  • Home care provider Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) plans to raise $650 million at a $3.2 billion market cap. Aveanna’s clinical model is led by its caregivers, primarily skilled nurses, who serve the full range of patient populations, from newborns to seniors. Profitable on an EBITDA basis, the company has expanded from 17 states to 30 states over the past five years, and it currently has 245 branch locations.
  • In its second IPO attempt, entertainment and talent agency Endeavor Group Holdings (EDR) plans to raise $501 million at a $10.3 billion market cap. Focused on premium intellectual property, content, events, and experiences, Endeavor’s portfolio includes UFC, IMG Media, and WME, among others. The company was significantly impacted by COVID-19, with revenue falling 24% in 2020, though it has since resumed activity in its operating segments.
  • Healthcare platform Privia Health Group (PRVA) plans to raise $351 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. Privia’s platform is powered by its proprietary end-to-end, cloud-based technology solution. Profitable with positive cash flow, the company currently operates in six states and the District of Columbia, covering over 70 target metropolitan statistical areas (including 20 out of the largest 100 MSAs).
  • Solar tracker system provider FTC Solar (FTCI) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. The company’s tracker systems are currently marketed under the Voyager brand name, which is a next-generation two-panel in-portrait single-axis tracker. Fast growing and unprofitable, FTC is one of the largest providers of two-panel in-portrait trackers in the US, with an estimated market share of 11%.
  • Specialty insurer The Fortegra Group (FRF) plans to raise $133 million at a $938 million market cap. Through its US insurance business, Fortegra offers commercial programs with a particular focus on casualty lines, including professional liability, inland marine, and contractor equipment. The company has a financial strength rating of “A-” from A.M. Best and Kroll Bond Rating Agency.
  • UK-based immunotherapy biotech Vaccitech (VACC) plans to raise $111 million at a $614 million market cap. The company is developing a broad pipeline of both clinical and preclinical stage therapeutic and prophylactic programs, including VTP-300 for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B infection and VTP-850 for the treatment of prostate cancer. Current prophylactic programs include VTP-400 for the prevention of shingles, and VTP-500 for the prevention of Middle East respiratory syndrome.
  • Preclinical cancer biotech Werewolf Therapeutics (HOWL) plans to raise $100 million at a $450 million market cap. The company’s lead candidates are molecules designed to selectively activate an immune response in the tumor microenvironment. Werewolf plans to file INDs for both programs in the 1H22, after which it plans to conduct Phase 1/1b trials for multiple tumor types both as a monotherapy and a combination therapy.

 IPO Schedule 4 25 2021

IPO data via Renaissance Capital

Part B : Bond Markets

Highlights – Treasuries

  • Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $4.881 billion, while junk bond funds posted outflows of $1.325 billion (from Lipper)..

In the US this month, spending of $972 billion was up from the year ago $356 billion, while receipts increased to $268 billion from $237 billion. Washington borrowed 70 cents of every dollar it spent last month. About 50% of the $3.41 TN first-half expenditures were debt-financed. Worse yet, our federal government is on track for back-to-back years of $3.0 TN plus annual deficits.

  • Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 0.015%.
  • Two-year government yields were little changed at 0.16% (up 4bps y-t-d).
  • Five-year T-note yields declined two bps to 0.82% (up 46bps).
  • Ten-year Treasury yields slipped two bps to 1.56% (up 64bps).
  • Long bond yields fell three bps to 2.24% (up 59bps).
  • Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields declined two bps to 1.84% (up 50bps).

 TNX W 4 23 2021

All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported a record $1.4 trillion of corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity,  funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. THe combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.

Highlights – Mortgage Market

U.S. home prices have been fueled by the lowest mortgage rates in history and relocation demand have risen rose at the fastest pace on record, surpassing the peak from the last property boom in 2005. The median price of a single-family home climbed 14.9% to $315,000 in the fourth quarter, the biggest surge in data going back to 1990. The Northeast led the way with a 21% gain.”

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped seven bps to 2.97% (down 36bps y-o-y).
  • Fifteen-year rates fell six bps to 2.29% (down 57bps).
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates increased three bps to 2.83% (down 45bps).
  • Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up a basis point to 3.07% (down 63bps).

Highlights – Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Credit last week expanded $69.5bn to a record $7.762 TN. Over the past 84 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $4.035 TN, or 108%.
  • Fed Credit inflated $4.951 Trillion, or 176%, over the past 441 weeks.
  • Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week increased $5.8bn to $3.560 TN.
  • “Custody holdings” were up $240bn, or 7.2%, y-o-y.
  • Total money market fund assets increased $15.6bn to $4.470 TN.
  • Total money funds dropped $182bn y-o-y, or 3.9%.
  • Total Commercial Paper rose $11.6bn to an 11-year high $1.219 TN. CP was up $85bn, or 14.1%, year-over-year.

We do know we have massive speculation pockets, viz a viz the Meme or GameStop, Weed stocks and cryptocurrency spectacles in just the matter of weeks. The Fed is today throwing additional fuel on historic speculative manias.

  • The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure.

Highlights – European Bonds

  • Greek 10-year yields were unchanged at 0.90% (up 28bps y-t-d).
  • Ten-year Portuguese yields were little changed at 0.40% (up 37bps).
  • Italian 10-year yields rose three bps to 0.78% (up 24bps).
  • Spain’s 10-year yields added a basis point to 0.40% (up 35bps).
  • German bund yields increased one basis point to negative 0.26% (up 31bps).
  • French yields jumped nine bps to 0.08% (up 42bps).
  • The French to German 10-year bond spread widened about nine to 34 bps.
  • U.K. 10-year gilt yields declined two bps to 0.74% (up 55bps).

Highlights – Asian Bonds

  • Japanese 10-year “JGB” yields declined two bps to 0.09% (up 7bps y-t-d).


Part C: Commodities


  • The Bloomberg Commodities Index rose 2.2% (up 13.3% y-t-d).
  • WTI crude declined 99 cents to $62.14 (up 28%).
  • Gasoline fell 2.2% (up 42%),
  • Natural Gas jumped 1.9% (up 8%).
  • Copper rose 4.2% (up 23%).
  • Wheat surged 8.7% (up 11%).
  • Corn jumped 10.2% (up 31%).
  • Bitcoin sank $11,438, or 18.4%, this week to $50,568 (up 74%).
  • Risk markets continue to respond to a Conronvirus outbreak and failed negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.
  • U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.
  • Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the ninth week in a row.

BDI Freight Index

 BDI W 4 23 2021


Copper has been a leader in the risk on movement, The weekly channel since the low has maintained the speed of the move with support at the tenkan and tested the median line this week

Copper W 4 23 2021 

US Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI  spiked higher over $68 Last week to complete a 5 wave structure and test min targets after broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September, In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around often geopolitics. We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This week that was powered by the Tenkan Spit of a spit. Support  is the Tenkan, old channel & prev high confluence. Watch Kijun & 50 dma.. Resistance MM and previous lows.

WTI D 4 23 2021 

Global oilstockpiles are continuing to decline and that should also support the bullish case for oil prices. The dollar outlook has shifted quickly and if further weakness continues, the super commodity cycle could provide an additional level of underlying support for crude prices. WTI continued higher after it rebalanced chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior reverseing at 7/8 after the series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Price popped after the spit of the 50wma (green) which is now key for support as Tenkan touched Kijun in a kiss of life. Given that we had tremendous energy which bore out in the hghs last seen 2019.

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 4 23 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas has played out both the corrective and consolidation phases since it completed its B or IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Bear is this 3 wave is a C of B, bull a developing 5 and we closed under the daily cloud which needs to be recaptured for the natags bulls. Tenkan failed after the arctic blast with more failure after Kijun crossed Tenkan. Support is previous breaks. Resistance is 8/8 and recent highs. 

 NG D 4 23 2021

Natty has moved in a series of 3’s since spat the 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan BUT this week all gave way other than the weekly Kijun in it’s larger developing pennant. Support is the cloud and 50wma.  A series of fractals, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.

 NG W 4 23 2021

 Key Energy Reports


Precious Metals


  • Spot Gold was little changed at $1,777 (down 6.4%).
  • Silver was about unchanged at $26.005 (down 1.5%).


April 11 – Bloomberg (Shruti Srivastava and Swansy Afonso): “Gold imports by India surged in March to the highest monthly total in nearly two years as a slump in prices stoked demand for jewelry during the ongoing wedding season. Overseas purchases increased more than sevenfold to 98.6 tons last month from 13 tons a year earlier… That would be the highest since May 2019.”

Gold bulls got a strong trading week as weaker bond yields are keeping the dollar vulnerable to further losses. Gold’s primary driver is real yields and now that the 10-year real yield is back at the March lows in an extended consolidation that could see further downward pressure for Treasury yields. Gold is benifitting from China giving banks permission to import bullion. Gold has massive support at the $1750 level and tentative resistance at the $1800 region, followed by the $1858 level.

After its manic rise to +5/8 weekly and rebalance of the Kikou in 5 waves then tested and failed the Tenkan, kijun and 50 wma. We found support at the wave 1 confluence of the higher degeree 5, To be bullish we would need to recapture the cloud (or the flag 🙂 In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 is a key harmonic pivot. We appear to have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs BUT NOT yet Tenkan & Kijun fails. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.

 Gold W 4 23 2021

 Gold 2 26 21 Fail


Silver is back at the cloud, key 38% and 50wma providing support after the correction following the squeeze which forced Gold/Silver which buoyed silver in the PM space, eventually we reversed with a double top Knowing that recall Silver did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. The weekly Tenkan crossing the Kijun would signal more downside. Note the MM

Silver W 4 23 2021 


Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”


  • For the week,the the U.S. dollar index declined 0.8% to 90.859 (up 1.0% y-t-d).
  • Majors for the week on the upside, the euro 1.0%, the Japanese yen 0.9%, the Swiss franc 0.7%, the British pound 0.3%, the Canadian dollar 0.3%, and the Australian dollar 0.1%.
  • Minors for the week on the upside, the Brazilian real increased 2.1%, the Norwegian krone 0.9%, the New Zealand dollar 0.8%, the Swedish krona 0.6%, the Singapore dollar 0.5%, the Mexican peso 0.4%, the South African rand 0.2%. On the downside, the South Korean won declined 0.1%. The Chinese renminbi increased 0.37% versus the dollar this week (up 0.48% y-t-d).

Australian Dollar – AUDUSD

Aussie dollar completed a 5 at the pysch 80 level and it back doing a break retest of 8/8 and the weekly tenkan. as one would expect after it completed 5 waves in emotive fashion.  It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves but between the Tenkan and Kijun like many commodities.The AUDUSD old three year high of 0.7820 from January 6. is a key option energy point playing out.

AUD W 4 23 2021

New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD

The Kiwi has been strengthening after RBNZ policy mostly went as expected with no changes with interest rates or its large-scale asset purchases. NZD has mirrored the AUD in its wave (iii) spit and has since closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave and running to the 38% Fib & 6/8 confluence.  Support the Kijun and Resistance Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 6/8 spits.

NZD W 4 23 2021

Canadian Dollar – USDCAD

The Loonie hit in 3 year high this week as it continues to benefit from dollar weakness and commodity currency strength led by the AUSD and NZD after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower (USD higher)  We closed ender the old 38.8% confluence. Use Fibs for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up

CAD W 4 23 2021


The Euro continues to correct in flags after broke the channel last May. after ABC (IV) then retested the tenkan to spit the +1/8 in 5 waves from there we closed the week back testing the tenkan (orange) and now Kijun (pink). A question of degree on recent high – 1 complete or 1 of 3?, Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked.  Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility. 

 EUR W 4 23 2021

British Pound – USDGBP

The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.

 GBP D 4 23 2021

EuroPound – EURGBP

Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

 EURGBP W 4 23 2021

Japanese Yen – USDJPY

USDJPY has declined for two consecutive weeks following the recent weakness with Treasury yields. BOJ could start to decrease purchases and that should thwart some yen strength. The 108.00 level should remain massive support for dollar-yen as long as Treasury yields start to stabilize. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

JPY W 4 23 2021

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso corrected the collapse to +1/8 against the USD right back to the 100% Fib  We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise. 

Turkish Lire USDTRY

The Turkish Lire  had corrected back to the weekly cloud to bounce to the Kijun, correcting back through Tenkan. The Turkish Central Bank removed its tightening bias and scrapped the end-2021 inflation target in a dovish move. The Turkish lira has plunged about 11% since Naci Agbal was fired as the central bank governor in March.

 TRY W 4 23 2021


Bitcoin exploded after it spent a year consolidating under the 61.8% spit. Each tenkan and kijun tap has seen an explosive kiss of life to over 423% of that consolidation. Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking after news hit that Turkey and then India are banning crypto payments. Use Murrey Math levels for higher corrections and target as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

 BTC W 4 23 2021

The rise of Bitcoin 2 26 2021


On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

Fed Financial Stability Report Risks May 2020

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Job Losses

Bloomberg (Michael Sasso and Leslie Patton): “A resurgent job market is creating more opportunities at a faster clip than many economists and employers expected. What’s more, too few people are applying for positions that are reopening, and that’s setting up a battle for talent. Restaurants and hotels are raising wages, offering bonuses for worker referrals or luring people from other states to cope with the shortage…. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 916,000 last month, blowing away economists’ median estimate of a 660,000-job gain. Meanwhile, a measure of service-industry activity released this week saw the fastest growth on record in March…”

Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported under 800,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits for the second time since the crisis.  With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and the big question is will they come back?

US Politics

Biden will deliver his second major sales pitch in a week for the ‘American jobs plan’ with a White House speech Wednesday, as he and his team reach out to governors, mayors and the broader public through phone calls, briefings and local TV appearances to make their case. In addition to emphasizing the need for urgency, with the pandemic exposing weaknesses that left millions of families struggling, Biden in his… remarks will argue that infrastructure needs go far beyond just roads and bridges…

“U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen… fleshed out the details of a corporate tax hike plan linked to President Joe Biden’s infrastructure investment proposal, aiming to raise $2.5 trillion in new revenues over 15 years by deterring tax avoidance. Yellen’s plan relies on negotiating a 21% global minimum corporate tax rate with major economies and a separate 15% minimum tax on ‘booked’ income aimed at the largest U.S. corporations. Dozens of big U.S. companies use complex tax strategies to reduce their federal tax liabilities to zero. Yellen said that promises of increased U.S. investment by corporations under the 2017 Republican tax cuts failed to materialize.”

The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences   In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.

Global Watch

Hot Spots

  • Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the China and India’s Himalaya border, a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
  • Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is bringing forward plans for as much as 40 billion euros ($48bn) in new borrowing as the cost of keeping the economy afloat drains the state’s coffers and street protests heap pressure on the government… The government has spent over 130 billion euros so far to support the economy which has pushed public debt to 155.6% of gross domestic product.” April 4 – Reuters (Sarah White):
  • “France’s public deficit is expected to reach 9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said…, up from a previous forecast of 8.5% as the country enters its third national coronavirus lockdown. The change follows a downward revision of France’s growth forecast from 6% to 5% for this year… Le Maire… said France’s public debt was set to reach 118% of GDP this year, up from its latest forecast of 115%.”
  • China tightened its grip on Hong kong and threats with Taiwan continue. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lifted communication restrictions between American and Taiwanese officials on Saturday. Pompeo said the restrictions had been imposed decades ago “in an attempt to appease the Communist regime in Beijing.”
  • Russia is showing the affects of low energy prices, filtering into the socio economic dynamic
  • A Brexit deal was concluded on Christmas Eve and moving rapidly through the approval process from both sides for the official start of the UK outside of Europe on Jan. 1st.
  • For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however.
  • Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?

    If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

  • Continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq. 


Trade Wars

  • Trade wars persist between Australia and China. The largest exporter of commodities and the worlds largest importer of commodities. China is experiencing record cold weather and it’s beligerance is hurting shooting itself in the foot. Regional partners such as Japan and India have supported Australia’s standing up to Chinese bullying.
  • In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..We are awaiting Biden’s offical resposne.
  • Chairamn Chi and President Biden had a phone hook last month week with the US saying they will review all policies but tariffs to stand in the meantime. China continued it’s theats on the matter. 


Fat Tail Virus Risk

  • “The highly contagious variant first identified in the U.K. is now the most common Covid strain circulating in the U.S., the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said… ‘The variant, known as B.1.1.7, is ‘now the most common lineage circulating in the United States.’ CDC Director Dr. Rachelle Walensky said… ‘Testing remains an important strategy to rapidly identify and isolate infectious individuals, including those with variants of concern,’ Walensky said.”
  • Reuters (Neha Arora and Francis Mascarenhas): “India reported another record number of new COVID-19 infections on Friday and daily deaths hit their highest in more than five months, as it battles a second wave of infections and states complain of a persistent vaccine shortage. Evoking memories of the last national lockdown when tens of thousands of people walked on foot back to their homes, hundreds of migrants in badly affected Mumbai packed into trains as bars, malls and restaurants have again been forced to down shutters.”
  • Fauci believes 70%-85% of the population must be vaccinated to reach herd immunity.



The major money cents banks released earnings with many record results for Q1. Mainly from trading and fees from IPO’s and SPAC’s. Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.

Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don’t exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.

Potentially the top six banks can buy back $11 billion in the first-quarter. Goldman Sachs shares after the announcement led the rally with a 7.7% increase. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan jumped 6.4% and 4.9% at intraday highs. Within minutes of the announcement all three banks have announced plans to resume buybacks in the new year.

Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose. otal Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $737 billion during Q3 to a record $60.113 trillion.

Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.  

“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

The key focus in the week ahead will be Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday as well as key economic and housing data in the back half of the week. President Joe Biden will also address a joint session of Congress for the first time since taking office. Another weekly key is the jobless figures after Thursday’s report of 576,000 new claims, the lowest level since the early days of the pandemic.

Central Banker and Geopolitics Watch speeches, reports and rate moves

Monday: April 26 2021

  • 08:00 EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks 09:00 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks 21:54 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 23:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 23:00 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) Legend/li>

Tuesday April 27, 2021

  • Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
  • 16:00 CAD BoC Gov Macklem Speaks

Wednesday April 28, 2021

  • 10:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 14:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 14:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
  • 14:30 USD FOMC Statement

Thursday April 29, 2021

  • None Seen

Friday April 30, 2021

  • 04:00 CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks

Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and  in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

Economic Events in the Week Ahead:

Sunday, April 25, 2021

Monday, April 26, 2021

  • All Day Holiday New Zealand – ANZAC Day
  • 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM)
  • 01:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM)
  • 01:00 SGD Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations (Apr)
  • 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment (Apr)
  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr)
  • 08:00 EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)
  • 09:00 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Apr)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
  • 19:00 KRW GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 21:30 CNY Chinese Industrial profit (YoY) (Mar)
  • 21:30 CNY Chinese Industrial profit YTD (Mar)
  • 21:54 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • 23:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
  • 23:00 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) Legend

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

  • All Day Holiday South Africa – Freedom Day
  • 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Apr)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • 04:30 HKD Trade Balance
  • 05:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar)
  • 05:00 EUR Business Climate (Apr)
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 09:00 USD House Price Index (Feb)
  • 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 s.a. (MoM) (Feb)
  • 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Apr)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Apr)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Apr)
  • 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Apr)
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
  • 16:00 CAD BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 17:00 KRW Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • 19:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)
  • 19:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
  • 21:30 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q1)

Wednesday April 28, 2021

  • 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (May)
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • 04:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (Apr)
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
  • 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 10:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 10:30 CNY Chinese Industrial profit YTD
  • 14:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 14:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
  • 14:30 USD FOMC Statement
  • 17:00 KRW Manufacturing BSI Index (May)
  • 18:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Mar)
  • 21:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)
  • 21:00 NZD NBNZ Own Activity (Apr)
  • 21:30 AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 21:30 AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)

Thursday, April 29, 2021

  • All Day Holiday Japan – Showa Day
  • 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish HICP (MoM) (Apr)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q1)
  • 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate (Apr)
  • 03:55 EUR German Unemployment (Apr)
  • 04:00 EUR M3 Money Supply
  • 04:00 EUR Loans to Non Financial Corporations
  • 04:00 EUR Private Sector Loans (YoY)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 05:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey (Apr)
  • 05:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • 05:00 EUR Consumer Inflation Expectation (Apr)
  • 05:00 EUR Services Sentiment (Apr)
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Sentiment (Apr)
  • 07:00 KRW Retail Sales (MoM)
  • 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr)
  • 08:00 EUR German HICP (MoM) (Apr)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices (Q1)
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD PCE Prices (Q1)
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q1)
  • 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 19:00 KRW Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
  • 19:00 KRW Service Sector Output (MoM) (Mar)
  • 19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  • 19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Mar)
  • 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
  • 19:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
  • 19:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
  • 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 21:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 21:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 21:30 AUD Housing Credit (Mar)
  • 21:30 AUD PPI (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 21:54 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (Mar)
  • 21:54 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (Mar)

Friday, April 30, 2021

  • 01:00 JPY Household Confidence (Apr)
  • 01:00 SGD Business Expectations (Q1)
  • 01:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 02:00 GBP Nationwide HPI
  • 02:00 EUR German GDP
  • 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index
  • 02:30 CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Mar)
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI
  • 02:45 EUR French HICP
  • 02:45 EUR French PPI
  • 03:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Mar)
  • 03:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Apr)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish GDP
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 04:00 CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish Current account (Feb)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian CPI
  • 05:00 EUR Italian HICP
  • 05:00 EUR CPI
  • 05:00 EUR GDP (YoY)
  • 05:00 EUR HICP
  • 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 08:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 08:30 USD Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 08:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Feb)
  • 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD RMPI (YoY) (Mar)
  • 09:45 USD Chicago PMI (Apr)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)
  • 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (Feb)
  • 12:00 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Mar)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
  • 20:00 KRW Trade Balance (Apr)

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. 



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