Traders Market Weekly: Algorithms, Jobs and Holiday Markets

Dec 3 -9, 2023

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The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead?

Contents

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Editorial

The markets continue to roll-on, fueled by carry trade liquidity, short covering in crowded trades as unemotional algorithms dominate emotional human decision making. On Friday the S&P 500 closed at 4,594.6 on Friday, its highest close since March 2022. The S&P 500 tapped the 4,600 level at its high of the day. The S&P 500 ended its best November on record on Thursday and was the most bullish month of the year rallying over 470 handles in tune with seasonals. The strength of delta covering on a Friday, ODTE adding to the impact overweighing cautious commentary by Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell on hopes of interest rate cuts.

The fed funds futures market is pricing a much higher probability of a rate cut in May (89.0%) compared to one week ago (47.8%), according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This despite Richmond Fed President Barkin (2024 FOMC voter), Fed Governor Bowman (FOMC voter) joining Fed Chair Powell this week indicating they believe it is premature to talk rate cuts.

The 20-month high came shortly after the Fed first kicked off its rate rise campaign, so it’s not an insignificant level. The S&P 500 still has the intraday high for 2023 in July above. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6 per cent on Friday to a four-month high.

We have spoken much of the resilient selective consumer spending, solid corporate earnings in the third quarter as being factors in what has caught many short. Other factors that have eased investors’ minds are the containment of the war between Israel and Hamas, Ukraine and Russia out of the news cycles and a quieter partisan battleground in US politics.

Treasury yields fell to five- month lows, and gold traded at an all-time high. The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, plunged 39 basis points this week to 4.56% their lowest since early June. The 10-yr note yield declined 26 basis points to 4.21%, their lowest since September.

November Sunshine

November seasonally has been the second strongest month on average over the past 50 years. December is also bullish seasonally which has influenced first day buying. November marked the strongest month for global equities this year. Developed markets outperformed EM equities, with the US leading the rally.

  • S&P500 returned 9.13% during November,
  • Nasdaq100 returned 10.82%.
  • Small cap Russell 2000 9.03%,
  • KBW Bank Index returned 15.45%,
  • Semiconductors returned 15.95%,
  • NYSE Financial Index returned 11.37%,
  • The “average stock” Value Line Arithmetic Index was up 8.88%,
  • S&P400 Midcaps returned 8.50%,
  • Dow Transports returned 8.36%.
  • Goldman Sachs Short Index jumped 11.4%.
  • NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI) surged 11.20% in November.
  • Japanese equities saw TPX up 5.4%, NKY up 8.5%
  • European equities saw SXXP up 6.4%)
  • China however was down CSI 300 down by -2.1% HSI down by -0.4%
  • Ten-year Treasury yields sank 60 bps, the largest monthly drop since December 2008 (71bps)
  • Benchmark MBS yields collapsed 81 bps, the biggest fall back to December 2008 (94bps)
  • Two-year yields fell 41 bps
  • Since the great financial crisis, only pandemic March 2000 (67bps) and banking crisis March 2023 (79bps) posted larger monthly declines in two-year yields.

Precious Metals along with Coffee and Cocoa soared in November

  • Silver surged $2.43, or 10.6%, to $25.27.
  • Gold jumped $52.53, or 2.6%, to $2,036.41.

CDS prices mostly lower and spreads narrower now than when Fed “tightening” cycle began.

  • Investment-grade CDS prices dropped 17 bps (largest monthly drop since Oct. 2022) to the low since January 2022.
  • High yield CDS sank 122 to 402 bps, trading to lows since April 2022.
  • JPMorgan CDS closed the month down 18 bps to the lowest price (52bps) since January 2022. Investment-grade spreads to Treasuries narrowed 25 bps to a 22-month low 1.04 percentage points.
  • High yield spreads narrowed 67 bps to 3.70.

For the week it is noteworthy mega cap stocks were tagged in other segments this week. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) was up just 0.1% while the S&P 500 rose 0.8%. Only two S&P 500 sectors were down communication services (-2.5%) and energy (-0.1%). The rate-sensitive real estate sector (+4.6%) saw the biggest gain, followed by materials (+2.6%), industrials (+2.1%), and financials (+2.1%).

Earnings generally have been positive with alpha moves in afterhours which pushes the short squeeze aspect of this move. We saw better-than-expected results from software enterprise names such as Snowflake (SNOW) and Elastic (ESTC) and Dow component Salesforce (CRM).

Recall in the past weeks we delved deeper into consumer finances. This bears repeating given recent data and market action. “What we see is they indicate an ability to pay. We are at a 22-year low in the debt-to-income ratio, record low debt payments as a share of incomes, locked-in low 30-year mortgage rates (something we harp on about, why would you move or refinance if you don’t have to?) and still high cash balances even if saving rates have normalized. Many habits changed after the pandemic and the uncertainty perpetuated by politics of hate has people more reliant on their own development.”

The bond market is reacting to economic data week that continues to look consistent with a soft-landing scenario. Notable releases included: a stronger than expected November Consumer Confidence Index, an upward revision to Q3 real GDP to 5.2% from 4.9%, a moderation in income and spending, and disinflation in the PCE Price Indexes in October, a much stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI for November, and a relatively low level of initial jobless claims. The Wall Street Journal’s Fed insider wrote in the afternoon that FOMC officials are more confident that rate hikes are over.

Manufacturing PMI readings from major economies remained weak overall, pointing to a continued contraction in Australia, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. There were some outliers in Asia as India saw accelerating growth, and South Korea emerged from contraction while China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI returned into expansion, contrasting with the official Manufacturing PMI (actual 49.4; last 49.5) that was released on Thursday. Treasuries entire complex raced to fresh highs after the release of the ISM Manufacturing report for November, which showed contracting activity at the same pace that was seen in October against expectations for a slower decline.

An inconclusive, if not dysfunctional OPEC+ meeting saw WTI crude oil futures decline 1.5% this week to $74.07/bbl which helps the disinflation trend. OPEC+ confirmed additional voluntary cuts to the total of 2.2 million barrels per day, beginning January 1 through the end of March 2024.

We are seeing latecomers to the rally coming on board as the squeeze dynamics pressure and the new longs present market fragility which is also evident in crowded longs. We see the short squeeze in bonds and stocks but also longs being hurt in markets such as oil and gas. WTI declined for the six straight week at settle, the longest since 2021 despite the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Markets continue to get crowded, and the failures become self-fulfilling.

A reminder “Hedge funds betting on a decline in US and European stock markets have suffered an estimated $43bn of losses in a sharp rally over recent days. Short sellers, many of whom had built up bets against companies exposed to higher borrowing costs over the past year or so, have been caught out by a ‘painful’ rebound in ‘low quality’ stocks this month, said Barclays’ head of European equity strategy Emmanuel Cau. That has come as the market has grown more confident that the US Federal Reserve’s cycle of rate rises is finally over.” The Financial Times George Steer

What Chair Powell and others have noticed is higher prices are not holding back consumption given that consumer spending was a sizeable driver of the 5% Q3 GDP growth rate. Consumers are paying higher prices, just being more selective. This was borne out in this muttering post FOMC. What many pundits have failed to grasp is massive U.S. government debt growth underpins incomes and corporate earnings, bolstering system-wide Credit. Further to those years of government sector liability expansion through the Treasury and Federal Reserve have created unprecedented gains in household and corporate sectors cash and bond holdings (along with inflated equities and real estate. The pandemic also changed the habits of many, locked in lower mortgage rates for example, lowered surplus spending and invested in dividend paying assets.

Some of This Week’s Main Stories We Covered

Austere Bond Rally in November Saw Best Bonds Performance Since 1985

Into the Vortex – US Natural Gas Storage Builds +20 Bcf Versus Consensus -9 Bcf Draw

Chicago Economic Activity Surprises with ISM Sharp Jump into Growth in November

U.S. Pending Home Sales Fell 1.5% in October After Suprise Rise in September

Disinflation with Core PCE inflation Easing in October, Though Sticky Above Fed Desires

Around The Barrel – Large Gasoline and Distillate Builds as Refineries Come Out of Maintenance.

Weak Demand at 7-year Treasury Bond Auction with 2.1 bps Tail Completes Week’s Offerings

American Consumer Confidence Improves in November, But Caution with Downward Revisions

Risks Being Ignored or Opportunity Being Repriced?

With the swings of psychology and dominance of unemotional algorithm models dominating markets more than ever it is critical to stay unemotional and devoid of bias where best you can. For the next six months, we stick to our technical outlook via KnovaWave, watch the curve and EURUSD and USDJPY.

A reminder in these markets don’t get married to a view, leave biased partisan opinions at the door and find a leader. Right now, NVDA and TSLA continue to give us give good insights into crowd behavior. Note the divergence and convergence with it and other instruments. Be proactive.

These markets are constantly evolving, the important things is why we are here and it isn’t a surprise.

Where is the fear?

We got some movement these past weeks out of the tight range in markets but as we can see from the VIX chart it quickly reverted back after the initial breaks. We are aware of built-up energy ahead of key central bank decisions and potential fundamentals to set-up rate hikes or not. There is discontent globally with central banks and politicians. Many are confusing today’s market structure as that of the past and applying rational thought. Algorithmics and market forces haven’t been caught by the disconnect on a longer than normal” lag between rates rising and economic growth slowing. Throw in the explosion in short-dated stock options, the main Vix index is not giving a true picture of risk for pricing models it seems clear.

With optionality dominating markets along with quant funds, algorithms, systematic trading and automated trading volatility has collapsed as has been focused on at KnovaWave. Driving quant funds is a self-reinforcing dynamic, when market volatility drops, they add which causes those funds that have paid higher volatility to cover and hence we get the churn.

Yet analysts warn that ostensibly tranquil markets have a habit of breeding instability as investors increase their equity positions and leverage.

To break out of this requires a continuing break in a major down, or up move to ignite delta chasing or covering.

So-called vol-control and risk-parity funds, which tend to automatically load up on riskier assets during calmer periods, ramped up equity exposure, according to the Deutsche Bank data, available through May 18. Other quants, such as trend-following CTAs, or commodity trading advisers, have similarly piled in.

The dominance of quants has helped explain previous periods of calm trading, including long stretches in 2017 and 2018. Those periods were punctured by rapid selloffs, including the 2018 selloff dubbed “Volmageddon” when the dynamics exerting calm on the market suddenly went away. Some warn a repeat could be ahead.

Caitlin McCabe WSJ

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Cboe Daily Market Statistics

Talking about manic behavior it is not hard to argue the punter is overwhelming and influencing markets like no other time, well until the next time. Swirling greed and know it all came home to roost. FOMO (fear of missing out) and TINA (there is no alternative) ended how they always do.

Over the past five years the Vix has only been at or below a reading of 12 on 25 trading days, of which five came in January 2022 at the start of last year’s bear market, according to DataTrek. Cboe Global Markets show trading volumes in options tied to the Vix are on track to hit a record this year.

When the VIX is highly reactive, VIX related products can serve as potentially effective hedging tools, when the VIX is not very reactive, traditional hedging techniques may be a better choice.

The VOLX`s underlying instrument is the Mini VIX™ Future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility. The VIX is calculated using a formula to derive expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of out-of-the-money puts and calls (options) on the S&P 500.

Worth repeating again in the low VIX environment.

Well, 2008 redux didn’t happen in the last few months, so the Fed moves have worked for now, much to Xi and Putin’s chagrin.

The doomsayers may be right, but we are seeing constant surprises to that theory. For example, early signs that the US housing market slump is finding a base are emerging, pending home sales having risen for a third month and to a 6-month high. we will keep an eye on consumer sentiment and business activity. We are far from being out of the woods, remember the market is not the economy. Saying that we got quite the distorted job picture per our main job stories which we reprise below. Are we simply taking some air out or is the beginning of the great meltdown?

What we continue to notice is how this market is still being treated by ‘experts’ as those in the past, hence the volatility and extreme in bulls/bears. Understanding crowd behavior is essential in these markets. The moves have caught analysts and strategists by surprise with the uber bear running amok in the past few weeks. Typical thinking is this from Morgan Stanley strategists a month ago; “Given the events of the past few weeks, we think … equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates”, noting that earnings estimates were 15-20% too high even “before the recent banking events.”

What non-traders are failing to grasp is this market with so many variables is not trading as they expect and they are constantly wrong. S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter are estimated to have fallen 5% from 2022, followed by an expected 3.9% drop in the second quarter, Refinitiv data shows. During recessions, however, earnings tumble at a 24% annual rate on average, according to Ned Davis Research. However how important is that in such a chaotic market? There is the answer structure your thinking around game theory or even chaos theory.


Week Ahead: NFP, RBA and BoC

Eyes will be on top macroeconomic reports that will emphasize the health of the US and global economies. Eyes and ears will be on central bankers given the market turmoil and the hiking of rates.

Inflation updates will be a significant focus across a number of markets with updates to the following readings.

More Macro and Micro data points, some highlights include.

Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls and wages, decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India, a round of inflation readings mainly focused upon Asia-Pacific and Latin American markets plus inflation surveys from the ECB and BoE will be among the key highlights.

Earnings season is in full flight, The reports include financial figures from NIO (NIO), GameStop (GME), DocuSign (DOCU), ChargePoint (CHPT), Dollar General (DG), C3.ai (AI), Broadcom (AVGO), Toll Brothers (TOL), Campbell Soup (CPB), AutoZone (AZO), Lululemon (LULU), MongoDB (MDB), Signet (SIG) and Chewy (CHWY).

How is the Consumer Hanging?

The US relies on services for up to 90% of GDP. it relies on the consumer who is being battered by the California and New York regional bank debacle. On top of that is cumbersome if not ignorant politicians, with no clear regard for main street the evidence suggests in their behavior. Key retailers all gave a cautionary note with tightened household budgets continue to hit demand for big-ticket items and curb discretionary spending.

We get more data to help us gage the consumer: Weekly MBA Mortgage, Weekly Initial and Continuing jobless claims and housing and retail sales and consumer sentiment reports.

Earnings season gives us an insight into how the consumer is coping.

Click here to see the Full Week Ahead List Below

Some things never change, when you think Greed is Good

So how Screwed are We?

  • Fed Z.1 for June with the release of Q2 Credit and flow data shows seasonally adjusted and annualized Credit growth of about $4.5 TN. One-year Treasury debt expansion of about $1.7 TN. Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP exceeding previous cycle peak levels. The ratio of Total Debt Securities-to-GDP is significantly higher than prior peaks.
  • Household holdings of Financial Assets above previous peak levels. Household Net Worth inflating $5.5 TN in three months. Household Equities holdings as a percentage of GDP higher than previous cycle peaks.
  • The value of Household Real Estate holdings jumped $2.480 TN to a record $48.870 TN, lagging only Q1 2022’s $3.561 TN increase. It’s worth noting that the largest quarterly Real Estate gain during the mortgage finance Bubble period was Q3 2005’s $864 billion. Over the past 15 quarters, Household Real Estate holdings inflated $15.809 TN, or 47.8%.
  • The banking system is on much greater Credit risk than mortgage risks were offloaded during the 2008 mortgage finance Bubble. At $25.6 TN, Banking System Assets ended 2022 almost double the 2007 level.
  • In nominal dollars, system Credit expanded $795 billion during Q2 to a record $96.327 TN, with NFD expanding $1.111 TN (to $71.248 TN), while financial borrowings contracted $329 billion (to $20.350 TN) (Foreign borrowings were little changed).
  • System Credit posted one-year growth of $4.193 TN, or 4.6%. Over the 14 quarters since the onset of the pandemic, System Credit has surged $21.457 TN, or 28.7%. NFD has inflated $16.722 TN, or 30.7%, since the pandemic – and has doubled (plus $35.675 TN) since 2008.
  • If it doesn’t burst well, we circle back to the popular view that Financial Sector debt included in analysis would be “double counting” borrowings already included elsewhere (i.e. mortgage and business). The swift end to backs, the shocking management out there and geopolitical cold war out there has us ready to expect the unexpected and aware of moves to mitigate by central banks as we saw a few weeks ago.
  • GSE Assets declined $131 billion during Q2 to $9.409 TN. FHLB Loans fell $187 billion during Q2 to $855 billion. Still, FHLB Loans posted one-year growth of $335 billion, or 64.3%.
  • Over six quarters, FHLB Loans expanded $520 billion, or 155%. GSE Assets expanded $1.117 TN, or 13.5%, over six quarters, and $2.279 TN, or 32.0%, over 14 quarters.
  • FHLB plays a pivotal role, last year prolonging the lending boom and stabilizing bank liquidity.

The Credit cycle downturn is coming to the surface.

We have the reflective destabilizing Monetary Disorder. Take a peek at China and the markets collective cognitive dissonance to the property market there, the shadow banking as just one example. Have a look around the world. The hope is the collective mass continues to evolve and survive, while each time the destruction is evident in massive disproportion shifts of wealth and attempts of mind, if not physical control of the masses. Dial that back and try and get in the minds of those trying to right the ship and the market components that matter, not what the dribblers think matter.

Here’s a thought, knowing about the power of cognitive dissonance does not necessarily protect you from its effects. Traders are only too aware of this eureka moment when you grasp it. Why some of the best trades you ever do, are the ones you don’t. In option parlance, being delta neutral sometimes is the best trade.

Key this coming week will be the commencement of the next round of such indicators that will test whether these gains were one-offs or something that is sustainable. The key will be the extent to which downside risks to the US economy have been reduced enough to influence global central banks, and how markets react.

The Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle has had little effect on loose financial conditions.

Where to from here? It’s also okay to acknowledge and process any difficult emotions or experiences that you may have had during the past year. Looking back on the past year with perspective can help you to gain a greater understanding of what you have been through and how you have coped. I hope that you are able to find ways to manage any challenges that come your way and that you continue to feel fine moving forward. Embrace the chaos that is headed your way in 2023!

China; Behind the Iron Curtain

A big shift in 2022, China’s population is now falling and below that of India. China’s population fell for the first time since 1961 as births have steadily fallen in recent years despite the removal of the “one child policy”. The stalling working age population and its likely decline ahead means that potential growth in China is down from around 10% or so in the 2000s to around 4-5% now.

Growth in China’s metric of system Credit growth, Aggregate Financing, dropped to $175 billion, down significantly from March’s $773 billion and only 61% of estimates. It was also the weakest monthly growth since last October.

November 28 – Bloomberg: “China’s central bank foreshadowed a slowdown in credit extension while pledging it would press banks to lower their real lending rates, amid concerns that sluggish borrowing demand has weakened the effect of monetary easing… ‘Credit growth may slow from its previous expansion pace,” Zheshang Securities economists, including Li Chao, said… ‘China has kept the pace of credit expansion at above 10% in the past few years, and there’s now a possibility it will fall below 10% going forward.’”

November 28 – Bloomberg: “China’s deepening property rout is pushing the nation’s central bank toward a style of policy it has long criticized: Quantitative easing. Bloomberg… has reported that the People’s Bank of China may provide at least 1 trillion yuan ($140bn) in low-cost funding to construction projects via so-called Pledged Supplemental Lending. Under that program, the central bank has provided cheap long-term cash to policy banks (by accepting their loans as collateral) to fund lending to the housing and infrastructure sectors… The PSL was used between 2014 and 2019 to help fund a home building spree, leading some economists to describe it as Chinese-style QE because of the resulting creation of money and expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet. ‘After so much policy relaxation, stimulus and relief, the property sector still hasn’t shown any obvious improvement. All traditional tools have been used, so what’s left are only unconventional tools,’ said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura… ‘The possibility of using central bank funds to rescue unfinished housing projects is increasing.’”

The Market Tripod of Destruction.

  • Firstly, financial asset overvaluation has swung way past any sound underlying economic wealth structure.
  • Secondly over-leverage in crowded bets.
  • Thirdly we have greed enthused, as always in these cycles, risk engineering, transfer and management that ignores or understands bifurcation and contagion outcomes.

Leverage has become toxic, a development that if not addressed will have deep and with far-reaching sequels. It’s not too farfetched to suggest that the markets are on the verge of a rupture that would be difficult to contain. Should the crisis of confidence dynamics that hit Britain feed into other markets a powerful global contagion could be unleashed. The markets are dislocated, and financial stability is at risk. A sobering thought is the UK is just the initial first world pension system in this cycle facing the harsh reality of a steep devaluation of assets and the prospect of widespread insolvencies and debilitating negative sentiment.

Inflation Matters

Inflation with Henry Kaufman

Kaufman is the legendary chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers is someone who knows Inflation.  Henry Kaufman in an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker Jan 14, 2022:

 “I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”

“The longer the Fed takes to tackle a high rate of inflation, the more inflationary psychology is embedded in the private sector — and the more it will have to shock the system.”

“‘It’s dangerous to use the word transitory,’ Kaufman said. ‘The minute you say transitory, it means you’re willing to tolerate some inflation.’ That, he said, undermines the Fed’s role of maintaining economic and financial stability to achieve ‘reasonable non-inflationary growth.’”


Independence – Never Take It for Granted Traders

“In aggregate, the market goes from order to disorder, and on that journey little pockets of order can form, including in commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies that circle back and reorder disorder. Then there is us the market player that reflects through order and disorder in an ever-evolving loop towards independence. It all starts with gravity and ends with equilibrium and back we go.” KnovaWave “The rules of market flux”

The Fed has kicked off its first real tightening campaign since 1994, with securities markets already at the brink of illiquidity and dislocation. Markets could soon be screaming for assurances of the Fed’s “buyer of last resort” liquidity backstop, while the Fed is prepared to begin withdrawing liquidity by selling Treasuries and MBS.

Another important aspect is the Fed doesn’t Control corporate pricing or wage decisions. Let us be clear geopolitical, climate change developments and what an out of depth, politically motivated administration are outside the Fed’s sphere of influence. There has been over $5.1 Trillion new “money” in 126 weeks, it’s a reasonable conclusion the Fed has lost control of Inflation.

We need to grasp all the risks to be wary off and received plenty of flak from it. We always talk here about expect the unexpected and now that is front and center, gage the market’s reaction, the market is always right and that’s why we focused on the crowd psychology aspect over the past few weeks.

“We have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise.”

– MoneyNeverSleeps

This move has crept up on many, to the extent the S&P 500’s is over the traditional measurement of a new bull market typically measured as a 20% gain from a significant low. The index above 4292.438 got that 20% move. That ended the longest bear market since 1948. The DAX and CAC40 have seen all-time highs recently also.

Our weekly reminder for risk. The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off this continuous dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.


Part A – Stock Markets

Weekly Highlights – USA

Indices

  • S&P500 increased 0.8% (up 19.7% y-t-d),
  • Dow jumped 2.4% (up 9.3%).
  • S&P 400 Midcaps rose 2.5% (up 8.0%),
  • Small cap Russell 2000 surged 3.1% (up 5.8%).
  • Nasdaq100 was little changed (up 46.2%).
Major US Stock Indices

YTD Report Card for the S&P Sectors

Sectors

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) came out 0.1% higher with only two of the S&P 500 sectors down on the week. Communication services (-2.5%) and energy (-0.1%). The rate-sensitive real estate sector (+4.6%) saw the biggest gain, followed by materials (+2.6%), industrials (+2.1%), and financials (+2.1%).

A breakdown of the performance of the S&P 500 sectors this week:

  • Utilities rose 1.5% (down 12.4%).
  • Banks surged 5.5% (down 13.5%),
  • Broker/Dealers rose 1.7% (up 12.2%).
  • Transports jumped 2.4% (up 15.5%).
  • Semiconductors slipped 0.3% (up 47.6%).
  • Biotechs gained 1.7% (down 6.8%).
  • With bullion jumping $71, the HUI gold equities index surged 8.1% (up 6.7%).
W/E Dec 1, 2023

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

Major US Indices

Global Stock Market Highlights

Highlights – Europe Stocks

Week/YTD

  • U.K.’s FTSE equities index increased 0.5% (up 1.0% y-t-d).
  • France’s CAC40 increased 0.7% (up 13.5%).
  • German DAX equities index jumped 2.3% (up 17.8%).
  • Spain’s IBEX 35 equities index rose 2.0% (up 23.2%).
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB index gained 1.7% (up 26.2%).

Germany’s benchmark Blue Chip DAX 30 index (Deutscher Aktienindex) expanded to 40 companies on 20 September 2021 adding 10 new members to the German stock index from the MDAX which will be reduced from 60 to 50 members.

Highlights – Asia Stocks

Week/YTD

  • Japan’s Nikkei Equities Index slipped 0.6% (up 28.1% y-t-d).
  • South Korea’s Kospi index increased 0.3% (up 12.0%).
  • India’s Sensex equities index jumped 2.3% (up 10.9%).
  • China’s Shanghai Exchange Index declined 0.3% (down 1.9%).

HighlightsAustralian Stocks

  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200: -0.2% on Friday to 7073.2 (+0.03% for the week)
  • ASX rose 4.5% in November, its strongest monthly gain since January and snapping a three-month losing streak.
  • Tech stocks worst hit Friday, down 1.1%. Even with Friday’s losses, tech stocks the best performing of the week, up 2.3%.
  • Sayona Mining fell 6.1% to a new 52-week low of 6.2¢. The lithium developer received its first remuneration strike at its AGM on Thursday. Core Lithium dropped 3.6¢ lower to 27¢ after being downgraded to sell by analysts at Citi.
  • Paladin Energy bounced 6.2% to $1.04 after falling about 5.5% on Thursday, amid a surge in trading activity in uranium stocks in recent weeks.
  • Financial services platform Iress was the best-performing stock on the ASX 200 over the week, gaining another 4.7%t on Friday to be up more than 25% since Monday. The company upgraded its earnings guidance for calendar 2023 to $123 million and $128 million, from the previous $118 million to $122 million.

Highlights – Emerging Markets Stocks

Week/YTD 

Brazil’s Bovespa index rose 2.2% (up 16.8%),

Mexico’s Bolsa index gained 1.7% (up 11.2%).

Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul National 100 index increased 0.8% (up 45.7%).

Russia’s MICEX equities index dropped 2.3% (up 45.9%).

Technical Analysis

S&P 500

Daily: The daily SPX closed above the previous roof (Key Spits) which were also at 7/8 and clustered around the 50% & August breakdown. With energy and with a very low VIX it has mirrored the get cloud to get through overhead. The bullish take is that we completed the correction off last year’s high at the low and this is a larger 1-2 to go higher with support at the previous resistance and cloud. The bearish outlook is this move becomes a rising wedge and we are working out the uber bears before new lows.

When we talk about crowd psychology this is a great example. The market after spitting the 4100 and 38.2% retracement broke to capture the Tenkan. This underscores the power from the SPX spat of June & October lows with impulse through the tenkan and Kijun energized by the daily cloud twist that fueled this rally. The completive wave came off extreme fear and bear that ended with relief. Now we have sated much of the greed phase and short fear phase. We have completed that cycle and from here we measure the alternatives.

It is worth looking back at the completive highs (all-time highs) and how we played out so far. Tracing back from highs the fuel from the top of the channel after completing 3 waves off ATH, accelerated after broke the Tenkan through to the 4600 OI where it reversed with impulse back to Tenkan. Bulls, this is likely a (ii) of a 5. Bears this is 1-2 of (i) completive V of degree. We watch if this low was a (iii), (a) or C. We have to respect the number of alternatives of degree of 5. With such trends keep it simple. From no fear to panic is the driving element.

On the downside the Kijun and those June lows now critical and is our trading Bear/Bull pivot in a high vol scenario. Watch each measured 3 wave move on the 240 & Murrey Math highlighted in the podcast. The prices pulled through the downward cloud pulled by the twist ‘helium contusion’ on the completive. For fractal purposes, SPX completed 5 waves up where it reversed with impulse. Energy fueled from the power impulse down from +1/8 ATH spit of a spit fail. On the way down (just like up) it accelerated after it broke the Tenkan through the rejected Kijun and then through the median after tapping 8/8.

Weekly: The SPX has a clear channel off the lows on the weekly timeframe off the sphere of influence and has ground higher since it closed over the cloud above the Tenkan. Key support is the Tenkan, channel and +1/8. Power initially came from launching out of the sphere of influence as one would expect in a 3 or C. We had the Kijun spit also. Above is the channel and +3/8.

In the bigger picture we are playing out S&P 500 energy after it held the sphere of influence from Nov 2020 reversed higher after spitting the 38% and key lows. At the time we opined “We do have a weekly cloud twist; however, the energy is waning without sharp impulse.” We got the sharp impulse right to weekly Kijun. For major cycles we watch the S&P 500 over 4,231, the 50% retracement of losses from the Jan. 3 & June 16 close. Since 1950 there has never been a bear market rally that exceeded the 50% retracement then gone on to make new cycle lows. Is this time different, as we tested and spat those June lows?

On the way up each new high evolved after testing Tenkan key support on the way and we are now getting a retest as resistance. We reiterate this needs to be recovered for a resumption of the uptrend meanwhile the bear market plays out. Watch Tenkan this week and watch for Kijun reaction. Extensions are difficult to time, keep it simple.

THE KEY: Key for the impulse higher was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat “We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.”  Keep an eye on the put/call ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as Chikou rebalances.

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets

NASDAQ 100

The down move saw Nasdaq spit the weekly Kijun and a 1-2 off tenkan we spat MM 5/8 after holding the key 61.8% Fib. We watch the Tenkan & Kijun confluence above, the breakup level and between the 38/50 Fibs. The Nasdaq is well behind the S&P pace with the weekly cloud and 50wma well above. Support the 61.8% retest.

Recall ATH was after it broke and held the weekly Tenkan to see a spit of a spit fail which is completive of 5 of some degree with Chikou rebalancing. Watch Chikou for divergence for continuation or failure. Divergence with Russell also a clue.

Russell 2000

The small cap Russell RUT bounced in double bottom off 1600 5/8 confluence which was the Nov 2020 breakup. Russell 2000 Resistance Tenkan and Kijun, note previous rejections. This is the index showing more of the fast money crowd and is trading like it. Needs to get traction in here for bulls. 7/8 & 8/8 support collapsed on the way down and is now major resistance.

Russell Index Negative Divergence to NASDAQ

Dow Jones

The Dow led the indices and closed above the weekly Tenkan after closing and testing last week. Prior test after the reaction off the June lows and sphere of influence. Support is the channel and Fibs. Tenkan and Kijun after the reaction empowered. Support is the channel and Fibs.

Semiconductors

NVidia $NVDA

Nvidia NVDA stock chart

NVidia surged 179.3% in H1 2023. It has been relentless since earnings and is the focus of the AI craze. With all manic moves beware of the pullbacks and topping potential. That said the extensions have played out and so far to +2/8 on the weekly. This was a classic set up as we can see. It has a textbook of KnovaWave methodology and rules from the 61.8% break and reverse through the sphere. NVDA accelerated after it broke the double top spheres at 5/8 giving is a near 4/8 move. A reminder that the dominance was in.

NVDA took off after the breakup retest from May 2021. NVidia is a clear leader of SOX & SMH look for cues there and ABC failures for changes. NVDA never looked back after the Key Break (mauve) and Tenkan to a flat cloud and holding support the recent low at the 61.8% extension.

Apple $AAPL

Apple AAPL Stock Chart

Apple has consistently driven upwards after it held the sphere of influence after retesting 6/8 & break up. Kijun and Tenkan crossing and then the 50wma with the cloud twist have been magnetic. Apple & other mega-cap names dominant the major indices, and a plethora of funds that hold it as a core position. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) delta is important to watch.

A firm rejection at $175 at +2/8 triggered a waterfall down for Apple last year. We regathered that and more and broke the weekly bull flag higher. On the way up Apple gently motored up to new ATH over the massive $160 then $170 thru to $180 gamma level on the way down these levels became key energy levels all the way to $132. Support held at the May break (just like NVDA) where from there it spat the cloud pulled by a flat Tenkan and Kijun as it rebalanced Chikou. The old channel break and MM +2/8 is now key. Remember the impact $AAPL has, at least short term on all the major indices.

MicroSoft MSFT

Microsoft hit a new all-time high testing the outer trend line from the previous spike. Key now is the weekly trend it has been in all year.

ExxonMobil XOM

ExxonMobil Weekly Chart

XOM has completed 5 waves from -3/8 to +3/8 on the weekly. with a double top. Alternatives 5 complete of degree. We are in a 1-2 (A-B depending on degree. Support is the cloud which has held 3 times since the high and the 50WMA resistance the tenkan and Kijun. Pattern wise we are in the bull flag until proven otherwise.


Part B: Bond Markets

Bond Watch

Treasuries

U.S. Treasuries opened December with a strong rally that sent the 2-yr yield to its lowest level since mid-June while the 10-yr yield fell to a level last seen during the first half of September. Manufacturing PMI readings from major economies mostly remained weak overall, pointing to a continued contraction though there were some outliers in Asia. Treasuries entire complex raced to fresh highs after the release of the ISM Manufacturing report for November, which showed contracting activity at the same pace that was seen in October against expectations for a slower decline. The strong finish to the week, which saw the 2s10s spread expand by 15 bps to -33 bps, left the 5-yr yield just three basis points above its 200-day moving average (4.130%).

Gold futures extended this week’s rally to $86.30/ozt or 4.3%, setting a fresh record high just under $2,100.00/ozt in the process. Crude oil revisited this week’s low, resulting in a $1.14, or 1.5%, loss for the week, while the U.S. Dollar Index had a failed rally past its 200-day moving average (103.58), losing 0.2% today and 0.1% for the week.

Treasury Yield Watch

Friday/Week

  • 2-yr: -14 bps to 4.56% (-39 bps for the week)
  • 3-yr: -14 bps to 4.33% (-34 bps for the week)
  • 5-yr: -14 bps to 4.16% (-33 bps for the week)
  • 10-yr: -13 bps to 4.23% (-24 bps for the week)
  • 30-yr: -10 bps to 4.42% (-18 bps for the wee)

Higher for longer is a serious threat. (Reprise)

Surging market yields are a serious issue for a banking system loaded with long duration securities portfolios. This may well be a push over the cliff for troubled commercial real estate (CRE). Leveraged lending and leveraged finance gets more costly. Simply there are trillions of floating rate loans among individuals, speculators, businesses, and nations.

For our complete Weekly Fixed Interest Analysis and Outlook visit our Bond Traders Weekly Outlook:

Mortgage Market

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped 12 bps to a 15-week low 7.13% (up 59bps y-o-y).
  • Fifteen-year rates fell 13 bps to 6.58% (up 70bps).
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates sank 19 bps to 6.82% (up 131bps).
  • Bankrate’s survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up five bps to 7.82% (up 109bps).
Mortgage News Daily

Global Debt Monitor

Highlights Unprecedented and Ongoing Surge in Global Debt

Last week, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) released their Q1 2023 Global Debt Monitor (GDM), highlighting the unprecedented – and ongoing – surge in global debt.

GDM Highlights:

  • “The global debt stock grew by $8.3 trillion to a near-record $305 trillion in Q123; the combination of high debt levels and rising interest rates has pushed up debt service costs, prompting concerns about leverage in the financial system.”
  • “Total debt of emerging markets hit a fresh record high of over $100 trillion (or 250% of GDP) – up from $75 trillion in 2019.”
  • “At close to $305 trillion, global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly.”
  • “Rise of private debt markets: Non-bank financial institutions (NBFLs) continue to gain prominence in global credit intermediation. The so-called ‘shadow banks’ now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment and private debt markets.”
  • “The Size of Private Debt Markets Surpassed $2.1 Trillion in 2022, Up From Less Than $0.1 Trillion in 2007.”

From the end of Q3 2019 through Q1 2023, Total Global Debt jumped $52.3 TN, or 20.7%, to $305 TN.

Over this period, “Mature” economy debt expanded 13.4%, while “Emerging” economy debt surged 38.9%. It’s worth nothing that in the “Emerging” category, “Household” debt surged 41.7%, “Non-Financial Corporate” 35.1%, and “Government” 55.7%. Since 2016, total global debt-to-GDP has surged from 210% to 360%. Global financial conditions remain loose. When they inevitably tighten, be prepared for serious dislocation.


Part C: Commodities

Highlights

December 1, 2023

Key Long Term Commodity Charts

Copper

Copper Supply Crunch

Gold

China added to its gold reserves for an eighth consecutive month. People’s Bank of China holdings of bullion rose by 680,000 troy ounces last month, according to official data. That’s equivalent to 23 tons.

Gold in Perspective

Energy

For complete Oil and Natural Gas Coverage please visit our dedicated publications ‘Around the Barrel’ and ‘Into the Vortex.’ – Weekly Analysis and Outlook for Energy Traders and Investors

WTI Oil

WTI Weekly KnovaWave Shape

Natural Gas

Energy Market Closes

BDI Freight Index

Baltic Dry Index Weekly

For our complete Weekly Commodity Analysis and Outlook visit our Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook:

Charts and commentary via KnovaWave on:

  • Grains: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans
  • Metals: Copper, Aluminum
  • Precious Metals: Gold Silver
  • Lumber
  • Oil and Natural gas are covered separately (see below)

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Highlights

  • For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.27 (down 0.2% y-t-d). 2022 gains were 8.2%
  • For the week on the upside, the New Zealand dollar increased 2.2%, the Japanese yen 1.8%, the Swiss franc 1.6%, the Australian dollar 1.4%, the Canadian dollar 1.0%, the British pound 0.9%, the Swedish krona 0.8%, the South African rand 0.7%, the Norwegian krone 0.6%, the Singapore dollar 0.5%, and the Brazilian real 0.4%. The Chinese (onshore) renminbi increased 0.29% versus the dollar (down 3.23%).
  • On the downside, the euro declined 0.5% and the Mexican peso lost 0.4%.
Weekly Foreign Exchange Price Change

For our complete Forex Weekly Analysis and Outlook visit our Forex Traders Weekly Outlook:

Charts and commentary via KnovaWave on the US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Euro Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Turkish Lira, Mexican Peso. Currency dynamics are complex. There are myriad facets to analyze and contemplate that influence all markets.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to be plaything of levered speculators; this week we saw the markets turn against those short. Where did this come from? Forced coverage from yield curve punts blowing up. Yen shorts and levered “carry trades” at risk.

It had been a churn following the FTX collapse. BTC had been stuck in the sphere of influence in continuation awaiting a catalyst, and it came. Continues to perform technically to perfection. Impulse begets impulse. To understand panic, understand greed. $BTC tested the top of a rising channel after the preceding sharp downturn which was the downside breakout of an earlier bearish flag, after breaking downside a H&S top and then down it went….

Recall Bitcoin exploded higher following it’s correction impulsively upon completing 5 waves up at +2/8. Each Tenkan and Kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of death until we completed 3 waves to around 28,000. From there we have seen extreme volatility.

Bitcoin KnovaWave Weekly Outlook

Looking back Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking. The high over $68,000 came after the launch over the Bitcoin ETF. From that high we have 2 main alternatives a V of a 1 of a V. For bears it a completive five with impulse right to the 50wma – an incredible 26% fall in a Friday night session. That’s impulse!

Bitcoin Mania in Perspective

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

 Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Turkey Geopolitical
Turkey Risk Monitor

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Banks

Earnings season kicks off with the major Banks each quarter:

Major US Banks for Q3, 2023

America’s big money center banks kicked off third second quarter earnings with a solid start with solid beats by JP Morgan Chase, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.

Q323 Reports

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

What Macro and Micro Risks and Opportunities Lie Ahead this week

Global Watch

Next Week’s Risk Dashboard via Scotiabank

  • The BoC may sound hawkish this week…
  • … and faces three options…
  • …including an update of its policy framework
  • US nonfarm & wages unlikely to affect the Fed
  • RBA expected to hold
  • RBI is also expected to stand pat
  • Global macro indicators
  • Global macro readings

Central Bank Watch

In the week ahead decisions by the Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, Poland’s central bank and the Reserve Bank of India who are all expected to hold. We also get inflation surveys from the ECB and BoE will be among the key highlights.

Eyes and ears will be on central bankers. We have the backdrop of a more hawkish Fed Chair in the face of escalating systemic risk. How will this affect Fed policy given the massive treasury positions out there and the risk of uninsured funds? In this environment we get pivots daily. How much damage is the Federal Reserve willing to do in the guise of controlling inflation?

This Week’s Interest Rate Announcements (Time E.T.)

In the week ahead we get four central bank delivering policy decision.

Monday, December 4, 2023

  • 22:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

  • 09:00 Poland Interest Rate Decision
  • 10:00 BoC Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, December 7, 2023

  • 23:30 India Interest Rate Decision

For our complete Central Bank Analysis and Outlook Visit our Central Bank Watch:

U.S. Economic Data Watch

US Data Focus

  • Monday: October Factory Orders (consensus 2.6%; prior 2.8%) at 10:00 ET
  • Tuesday: Final November S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 50.6) at 9:45 ET; November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (consensus 52.4%; prior 51.8%) and October job openings (prior 9.553 mln) at 10:00 ET
  • Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 0.3%) at 7:00 ET; November ADP Employment Change (consensus 127,000; prior 113,000) at 8:15 ET; Revised Q3 Productivity (consensus 4.8%; prior 4.7%), Revised Q3 Unit Labor Costs (consensus -0.8%; prior -0.8%), and October Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$64.4 bln; prior -$61.5 bln) at 8:30 ET; and weekly crude oil inventories (prior +1.61 mln) at 10:30 ET
  • Thursday: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 223,000; prior 218,000) and Continuing Claims (prior 1.927 mln) at 8:30 ET; October Wholesale Inventories (consensus -0.2%; prior 0.2%) at 10:00 ET; weekly natural gas inventories (prior +10 bcf) at 10:30 ET; and October Consumer Credit (consensus $9.0 bln; prior $9.0 bln) at 15:00 ET
  • Friday: November Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus 175,000; prior 150,000), Nonfarm Private Payrolls (consensus 155,000; prior 99,000), Average Hourly Earnings (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.2%), Unemployment Rate (consensus 3.9%; prior 3.9%), and Average Workweek (consensus 34.3; prior 34.3) at 8:30 ET; and preliminary December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (consensus 62.6; prior 61.3) at 10:00 ET

US Stocks Watch Earnings and Event Watch

Earnings Highlights This Week:

The Q3 2023 reporting season companies reporting this week.

  • Monday includes Gitlab (GTLB), Joann (JOAN). Applications International Corporation (SAIC), Fusion Fuel Green PLC (HTOO), IDT Corporation (IDT), RGC Resources (RGCO),
  • Tuesday includes AutoZone (AZO), Box (BOX), MongoDB (MDB), Toll Brothers (TOL), NIO (NIO), and J.M. Smucker (SJM). Rent the Runway (RENT), SentinelOne (S), Asana (ASAN), AeroVironment (AVAV), Yext (YEXT), Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG), Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY), Ocuphire Pharma (OCUP), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), Designer Brands (DBI), HealthEquity (HQY), Ferguson (FERG), G-III Apparel Group (GIII), The Descartes Systems Group (DSGX), Phreesia (PHR), Core & Main (CNM), J.Jill (JILL), Daktronics (DAKT), Lands’ End (LE),and Stitch Fix (SFIX)
  • Wednesday includes Brown-Forman (BF.A), Campbell Soup (CPB), Chewy (CHWY), Sprinklr (CXM). GameStop (GME), C3.ai (AI), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Toll Brothers (TOL), Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B), Powell Industries (POWL), United Natural Foods (UNFI), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI), Semtech Corporation (SMTC), Braze (BRZE), Verint Systems (VRNT), Argan (AGX), Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings (SPWH), Korn Ferry (KFY), John Wiley & Sons (WLY), Amtech Systems (ASYS), Couchbase (BASE), Vera Bradley (VRA), Barnes & Noble Education (BNED), Oxford Industries (OXM),and ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT)
  • Thursday includes Broadcom (AVGO), Dollar General (DG), DocuSign (DOCU), Guidewire Software (GWRE), Planet Labs (PL) Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Ciena Corporation (CIEN), Vail Resorts (MTN), The Cooper Companies (COO), HashiCorp (HCP), Lakeland Industries (LAKE), Greif (GEF), Liquidity Services (LQDT), GMS (GMS), Methode Electronics (MEI), Hooker Furnishings Corporation (HOFT), DLH Holdings (DLHC), SecureWorks (SCWX),and Smartsheet (SMAR)
  • Friday includes Hello Group (MOMO), Johnson Outdoors (JOUT), Canadian Western Bank (CBWBF)

Investors (and algos) will focus on the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Events

Notable conferences running during the week include:

Monday

  • 11:00 a.m. BetMGM will host a business update call. The sports betting company is jointly owned by MGM Resorts (MGM) and Entain plc (OTCPK:GMVHF).

Tuesday

  • Informatica’s (INFA) Investor Day event,
  • Builders FirstSource’s (BLDR) Investor Day,
  • CVS Health’s (CVS) Investor Day,
  • Deluxe Corporation’s (DLX) Investor Day.
  • Shopify’s (SHOP) Investor Day with a holiday update and long-term guidance a distinct possibility.
  • Closing arguments in the DOJ case trying to block the Spirit Airlines (SAVE)-JetBlue Airways (JBLU) merger
  • Microsoft (MSFT) will hold its three-day Microsoft Azure + AI Conference.
  • The post-IPO quiet period ends for Cargo Therapeutics (CRGX) and Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) to free up analysts to post ratings.
  • Signet Jewelers (SIG), Macy’s (M), and Solo Brands (DTC) participating at the Coresight Research AI Conference.
  • 10:00 a.m. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) will hold an Enterprise Business Review for the investment community. During the event, management will share a detailed review of the Innovative Medicine and MedTech businesses and their respective pipelines, as well as discuss the company’s long-term strategy to deliver sustained growth and value to shareholders.

Wednesday

  • The Morgan Stanley Global Consumer and Retail Conference will include presentations from Delta Air Lines (DAL), Revolve Group (RVLV), and Rent the Runway (RENT).
  • The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will hold its annual oversight hearing on Wall Street firms. Witnesses will include Wells Fargo (WFC) CEO Charles Scharf, Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Thomas Moynihan, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon, Citigroup (C) CEO Jane Fraser, State Street (STT) CEO Ronald O’Hanley, BNY Mellon (BK) CEO Robin Vince, Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon, and Morgan Stanley (MS) CEO James Gorman.
  • The Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference will feature presentations from a long list of companies that includes executives from Intel (INTC), Lyft (LYFT), Appian (APPN), UiPath (PATH), AMD (AMD), and Microsoft (MSFT). Workday (WDAY) Co-CEO Carl Eschenbach will deliver a keynote address at the event.
  • CEVA’s (CEVA) Investor Day,
  • Peloton Interactive’s (PTON) annual meeting,
  • OneMain Holdings’ (OMF) Investor Day.
  • The entire restaurant sector will be watching McDonald’s (MCD) investor meeting that is expected to include updates on unit development in the U.S. and international markets, digital initiatives, Q4 trends, and the company’s financial outlook.
  • The two-day AI Summit New York will begin. Speakers on various AI topics include representatives from Microsoft (MSFT), CVS Health (CVS), FedEx (FDX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Wells Fargo (WFC).
  • 10:00 a.m. Exxon Mobil (XOM) will host its 2023 Corporate Plan Update video call.

Thursday

  • Hearing in the Tylenol autism case to determine whether the plaintiffs have enough expert evidence to prove their claims and to determine the admissibility of the evidence. Kenvue (KVUE) now owns the Tylenol brand.
  • Microsoft’s (MSFT) annual general meeting,
  • Domino’s Pizza’s (DPZ) Investor Day,
  • Moderna’s (MRNA) ESG Investor Day,
  • NETGEAR’s (NTGR) Financial Analyst Day,
  • Edwards Lifesciences’ (EW) Investor Conference.

Friday

  • FDA action date on Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) for the investigational treatment exagamglogene autotemcel for severe sickle cell disease.

IPO Wrap

US IPO Week Ahead:


Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2022.

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