U.S. Job Market in January Delivered Much Stronger Key Metrics with Huge NFP Upside Revisions

The January employment reports delivered much stronger key metrics than expected, nonfarm payrolls, private sector payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings were all stronger than expected. In particular payroll data where January non-farm payrolls came in 353K vs +180K expected and December was revised to +333K from+216K, November was revised to +173K from +164K, a combined 126,000 higher than previously reported. Updated population estimates decreased the estimated size of the civilian non-institutional population by 625,000 and the civilian … Continue reading “U.S. Job Market in January Delivered Much Stronger Key Metrics with Huge NFP Upside Revisions”

U.S. Job Market has Largest Drop in Household Employment Since April 2020 in December

U.S. Nonfarm payrolls rose 216,000 in December following downward revisions to the prior two months the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed Friday. The unemployment rate held at 3.7% while the workforce shrank. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from a month earlier. The surprisingly high headline NFP number however leaves us skeptical given revisions and the fact the latest revisions show the U.S. economy added just 44,000 private-sector jobs in October, showing the effects of multiple hits causing the economy to … Continue reading “U.S. Job Market has Largest Drop in Household Employment Since April 2020 in December”

U.S. Labor Market Continues to Cool Down in November, Striking Auto Workers Return to Work

The U.S. labor market for the second straight is showing the effects of multiple hits causing the economy to lose steam. U.S. employers added 199,000 workers in November, higher than the expected 183,000 consensus following a downwardly revised by 35,000 the advance for September and October. The UAW strikers returned, which was estimated at about 33,000 from payrolls last month. Government and health care were the source of gains. We have the unaffordability of higher borrowing costs following the Federal … Continue reading “U.S. Labor Market Continues to Cool Down in November, Striking Auto Workers Return to Work”

U.S. Labor Market Slowing Down in October as Economy Loses Steam

The U.S. labor market is showing the effects of multiple hits causing the economy to lose steam. We have the unaffordability of higher borrowing costs following the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking spree, persistent inflation and war theatres in the Middle East and Ukraine. The report could lead Fed officials to extend their hiking pause. U.S. employers added 150,000 workers in October, lower than the expected 175,000 consensus following a downwardly revised 297,000 advance in September. The UAW strikes removed about … Continue reading “U.S. Labor Market Slowing Down in October as Economy Loses Steam”

U.S. Labor Market Resilience as Hiring Surged in September, Pressuring Bonds Further

The U.S. labor market appear to continue its resilience with U.S. employers adding 336,000 workers in August, higher than the expected 170,000 consensus. It was the biggest hiring month since January with wage growth cooling down pleasing the Fed. There was higher unemployment, but from greater participation. The report was incongruent with the ADP Employment Report for September which grew +89K vs +153K expected the lowest in five months was released a day ahead of the BLS employment report. The … Continue reading “U.S. Labor Market Resilience as Hiring Surged in September, Pressuring Bonds Further”

U.S. Unemployment Rate Rises to 3.8%, Highest in 18 Months in August, NFP Revisions Concern

The U.S. labor market appear to continue its resilience with U.S. employers adding 187,000 workers in August, higher than the expected 170,000 consensus. The ADP Employment Report for August grew 177,000 in August 2023, the lowest in five months was released a day ahead of the BLS employment report. July’s employment gain was revised down by 30,000, from +187,000 to +157,000. The jobless rate was 3.8% in August the Labor Department reported Friday. The job market is still tight, with … Continue reading “U.S. Unemployment Rate Rises to 3.8%, Highest in 18 Months in August, NFP Revisions Concern”

Yields Fall After ADP Report 177K Jobs Added in August, Led by Small and Medium Businesses Again

The strength of the US labor market has shown signs of easing over the last few days, with a weaker JOLTS report yesterday and today’s report from private payroll company ADP. ADP reported that US private sector jobs grew 177,000 in August 2023, the lowest in five months and missing market expectations of a 195k rise and following an upwardly revised 371k increase in July. The service-providing sector added 154k jobs, led by education & health (52k), trade, transportation & … Continue reading “Yields Fall After ADP Report 177K Jobs Added in August, Led by Small and Medium Businesses Again”

U.S. Adds 187,000 Jobs in July, Unemployment Rate Fell to 3.5%

The U.S. labor market continues its resilience in July with U.S. employers adding 187,000 workers in July, lower than expected. The ADP Employment Report for July (actual 324,000; consensus 190,000) released a day ahead of the BLS employment report. The ISM services employment index rose to 50.7 vs 53.1 prior. Expectations ranged between +140K and +300K nonfarm payroll jobs added, with a consensus estimate for 200K. June’s employment gain was revised down by 25,000, from +306,000 to +281,000. Wage gains … Continue reading “U.S. Adds 187,000 Jobs in July, Unemployment Rate Fell to 3.5%”

U.S. Adds Less Jobs Than Expected in June While Wages Grew

The U.S. labor market continues its resilience in June with U.S. employers adding 209,000 workers in June, much lower however than the much stronger than expected ADP Employment Report for June (actual 497,000; consensus 245,000) released a day ahead of the BLS employment report. The ISM services employment index rose to 53.1 versus 49.2 prior. Expectations ranged between 110K and 288K nonfarm payroll jobs added, with a consensus estimate for 225K. May’s employment gain was revised down to 306,000 from … Continue reading “U.S. Adds Less Jobs Than Expected in June While Wages Grew”

What to Expect for June’s Jobs Report after Red Hot ADP Private Payrolls

The U.S. labor market showed its continued resilience after a much stronger than expected ADP Employment Report for June (actual 497,000; consensus 245,000) released a day ahead of the BLS employment report for June. The ISM services employment index rose to 53.1 versus 49.2 prior. Expectations range between 110K and 288K nonfarm payroll jobs added, with a consensus estimate for 225K. There were 339,000 NFP jobs added in May. A fun fact is the analysts’ poor predictions. last month was … Continue reading “What to Expect for June’s Jobs Report after Red Hot ADP Private Payrolls”