Wheat futures in the US were at $6.95 per bushel, bouncing near the 20-month low of $6.65 touched on March 9th amid expectations of a strong Brazilian supply. Russia also reported it has no objection to extending the grain deal that places a safe trade corridor for exports of grain out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Ukraine is one of the world’s top exporters and the current deadline is March 18th deadline. Ukraine, like Russia reported to have a stronger … Continue reading “Wheat Bounces Near 20-Month Low as Ukrainian Black Sea Port Deal Extended”
Oil and Gasoline Outlook In a Mad, Mad World
Oil prices have been volatile for quite a while now. WTI futures fell -4.24% on the week, Brent fell -3.95%, gasoline fell -3.98% and heating oil fell -5.32%. On the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine we take a look at oil at what is going on and influencing it. Oil prices continue to trade back and forth between geopolitical risks and massive builds from low refinery usage due to maintenance. Futures have been ignoring large US builds and have … Continue reading “Oil and Gasoline Outlook In a Mad, Mad World”
Natural Gas Collapse Continues, Where Does it End?
Two things are certain, Natural Gas tears faces off punters and dribblers, Natural Gas futures never does what is expected. Natural gas futures fell Monday another 8%, Last week it fell -9.94%, down -27.22% for the month and -48.27% year on year reflecting a combination of an oversupplied market and TTF futures in Europe touching €49.5 a megawatt-hour on Friday. We discuss what is going on and the outlook. Enjoy live commentary from Our Trading Room at YouTube – feel … Continue reading “Natural Gas Collapse Continues, Where Does it End?”
Russian Stocks Plunge 44% in 2022
Russia’s MOEX Russia index closed Friday at 2,154, plunging 44% on the year. The ruble-based index reflected the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and consequent sanctions by Western countries. Russia’s action triggered investor’s exodus from oil and gas companies to McDonalds. The Moscow Exchange and the Central Bank of Russia both attempted to halt the selling, including closing the stock market for one month at the end of February, banning foreign investors from “unfriendly” countries, and prohibiting short … Continue reading “Russian Stocks Plunge 44% in 2022”
Potential Future Black Swans in an Uncertain World
It is difficult to predict exactly what black swan events might occur in the future, as these events are by definition rare and unexpected. Critical thinking around past black swans gives a range of possibilities including, pandemics, cyber-attacks, natural disasters, major technological breakthroughs or disruptors, or a geopolitical event, such as a war or a political crisis. Of course, by their very nature the black swan could be from something totally unthought of. Expect the unexpected as a good way … Continue reading “Potential Future Black Swans in an Uncertain World”
European Natural Gas Prices End Year Down 76% from Panic Highs, Near Pre-Ukraine Invasion Levels
European natural gas prices closed out 2022 at €76/MWh up almost 14% for the year, well off the panic highs and back around levels seen prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at €75. These prices are more than 75% below record levels of €350 seen in August. The Dutch TTE futures are down 76.8% from the peak of $103.55 at $23.96. A number of factors came into to play. The economic fallout in the eurozone downturn extended into its sixth … Continue reading “European Natural Gas Prices End Year Down 76% from Panic Highs, Near Pre-Ukraine Invasion Levels”
Russia Suspending Participation in Black Sea Grain Initiative Grain Deal with Ukraine
Russian defense ministry on Saturday said Moscow was halting participation in the United Nations-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement after what it said was a Ukrainian attack on its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea. The agreement was signed in July but was set to expire on Nov. 19. There have been continual threats from Russian President Putin and the deal was seen as uncertain. The July deal ended a five-month Russian blockade of Ukraine’s ports. The statement from the defense … Continue reading “Russia Suspending Participation in Black Sea Grain Initiative Grain Deal with Ukraine”
Wheat Futures Hampered by Strong US Dollar Pricing Out Exports
A rough week for wheat futures, closing the week down 2.41%. The high US dollar is weighing on “reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. export prices”. On Friday all wheat basis front month contracts closed lower. SRW December down 21 1/2 cents for the week loss. KC Dec futures closed down 23 1/4 cent for the week. Spring Dec wheat futures closed down by 16 1/2 cents on the week. Weakness continued from the USDA … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Hampered by Strong US Dollar Pricing Out Exports”
Wheat Futures Down with Lowest US Exports Since 1971-1972
Wheat futures closed the week down 1.39% despite bouncing Friday with a broad set of other commodities higher as the U.S. Dollar retreated from recent highs on Fed speak. Weakness for the week came from the USDA cutting its 2022-23 outlook for U.S. wheat exports by 50M bushels to 775M bushels, the lowest amount of domestic wheat exports since the 1971-1972 marketing year. The high US dollar is biting “reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Down with Lowest US Exports Since 1971-1972”
Wheat Futures Down 4.5% On the Week After Ukraine Concluded its 2022 Harvest
Wheat futures Friday followed a broad set of other commodities higher despite the strong U.S. Dollar following the September Jobs report. However, on the week they were down 4.5%. Since the summer prices have been curbed by increasing volumes shipped from Ukraine through the Black Sea corridor. Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported its 2022 wheat harvest concluded with a total estimated production of 705.5 million bushels, significantly lower than last year’s 1.183 billion. A fifth vessel chartered by the United Nations World … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Down 4.5% On the Week After Ukraine Concluded its 2022 Harvest”