Russian Central Bank Hikes Interest Rate to 16% as Wartime Inflation Pressures Mount

Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) in a fight to arrest inflation and the fall of the plummeting Rouble hiked 100bps Friday morning to 16 percent, for the fifth consecutive time since summer to fight accelerating inflation. The Russian economy has been smashed but is said to be recovering on impacts from the invasion of Ukraine by scarcity and falling currency pushing up prices paid. The CBR has now raised its key rate by a cumulative 850 basis points since July, including … Continue reading “Russian Central Bank Hikes Interest Rate to 16% as Wartime Inflation Pressures Mount”

Russia’s Currency Slide Accelerates, Is the Ruble the New Turkish Lira?

Russia’s ruble’s selloff has picked up speed falling to its weakest level in over a year, through 100 against the US dollar for the first time since the week after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Less than a month ago Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) in a fight to arrest the plummeting Russian Ruble hiked rates by a more-than-expected 100 basis points. The bank pointed to rising inflationary pressures. The central bank raised its key rate to 8.5% which surprised analysts polled … Continue reading “Russia’s Currency Slide Accelerates, Is the Ruble the New Turkish Lira?”

Ruble Slide Continues After Russian Central Bank Raises Rates 100bps

Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) in a fight to arrest the plummeting Russian Ruble hiked rates by a more-than-expected 100 basis points. The bank pointed to rising inflationary pressures. The central bank raised its key rate to 8.5% surprised analysts polled by Reuters, with a 50-basis-point hike the consensus. The ruble was 0.4% weaker against the dollar at 90.62 and 0.2% weaker at 100.73 versus the euro. It also dropped 0.1% against the yuan to 12.59. The ruble also felt the … Continue reading “Ruble Slide Continues After Russian Central Bank Raises Rates 100bps”

Germany Population in 2022 Grew Largest Since Reunification, Led by Ukrainian Refugees

Germany’s population in 2022 grew by 1.12 million, or 1.3 percent, to 84.4 million. In 2021 the population grew just 0.1 percent. It was the largest annual surge in population numbers since Germany’s reunification of East and West over three decades ago. The surge was mainly due to increased pregnancy’s due to Covid lockdown and a notable influx of 1.46 million individuals through net immigration mainly caused by the arrival of refugees from Ukraine. Net migration was 329,000 in 2021. … Continue reading “Germany Population in 2022 Grew Largest Since Reunification, Led by Ukrainian Refugees”

Prime Minister Kaja Kallas Confirmed to Lead New Estonia Coalition Government

Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas confirmed Saturday that she will lead the government of Estonia for the next four years following lengthy talks. Kallas’ pro-business Reform Party overwhelmingly won Estonia’s March 5 parliamentary election with 31.2% of the vote. It has formed a coalition with the centrist Estonia 200 party and the Social Democratic Party after agreeing on government programs. Kaja Kallas has been seen as one of the most forceful and productive leaders in Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine … Continue reading “Prime Minister Kaja Kallas Confirmed to Lead New Estonia Coalition Government”

Wheat Bounces Near 20-Month Low as Ukrainian Black Sea Port Deal Extended

Wheat futures in the US were at $6.95 per bushel, bouncing near the 20-month low of $6.65 touched on March 9th amid expectations of a strong Brazilian supply. Russia also reported it has no objection to extending the grain deal that places a safe trade corridor for exports of grain out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Ukraine is one of the world’s top exporters and the current deadline is March 18th deadline. Ukraine, like Russia reported to have a stronger … Continue reading “Wheat Bounces Near 20-Month Low as Ukrainian Black Sea Port Deal Extended”

Oil and Gasoline Outlook In a Mad, Mad World

Oil prices have been volatile for quite a while now. WTI futures fell -4.24% on the week, Brent fell -3.95%, gasoline fell -3.98% and heating oil fell -5.32%. On the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine we take a look at oil at what is going on and influencing it. Oil prices continue to trade back and forth between geopolitical risks and massive builds from low refinery usage due to maintenance. Futures have been ignoring large US builds and have … Continue reading “Oil and Gasoline Outlook In a Mad, Mad World”

Natural Gas Collapse Continues, Where Does it End?

Two things are certain, Natural Gas tears faces off punters and dribblers, Natural Gas futures never does what is expected. Natural gas futures fell Monday another 8%, Last week it fell -9.94%, down -27.22% for the month and -48.27% year on year reflecting a combination of an oversupplied market and TTF futures in Europe touching €49.5 a megawatt-hour on Friday. We discuss what is going on and the outlook. Enjoy live commentary from Our Trading Room at YouTube – feel … Continue reading “Natural Gas Collapse Continues, Where Does it End?”

Russian Stocks Plunge 44% in 2022

Russia’s MOEX Russia index closed Friday at 2,154, plunging 44% on the year. The ruble-based index reflected the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and consequent sanctions by Western countries. Russia’s action triggered investor’s exodus from oil and gas companies to McDonalds. The Moscow Exchange and the Central Bank of Russia both attempted to halt the selling, including closing the stock market for one month at the end of February, banning foreign investors from “unfriendly” countries, and prohibiting short … Continue reading “Russian Stocks Plunge 44% in 2022”

Potential Future Black Swans in an Uncertain World

It is difficult to predict exactly what black swan events might occur in the future, as these events are by definition rare and unexpected. Critical thinking around past black swans gives a range of possibilities including, pandemics, cyber-attacks, natural disasters, major technological breakthroughs or disruptors, or a geopolitical event, such as a war or a political crisis. Of course, by their very nature the black swan could be from something totally unthought of. Expect the unexpected as a good way … Continue reading “Potential Future Black Swans in an Uncertain World”