U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise 2.5% in December as Real Estate Market Stabilizes

US pending home sales unexpectedly rose 2.5% month-over-month in December of 2022, the first rise since May, and beating market forecasts of a 0.9% drop. Sales were higher in the South (6.1%) and the West (6.4%) but fell in the Northeast (-6.5%) and Midwest (-0.3%). For perspective year-on-year, pending home sales are down 33.8%. We saw positive signs yesterday we saw new home sales increased 2.3% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units (consensus 614,000) … Continue reading “U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise 2.5% in December as Real Estate Market Stabilizes”

US New Home Sales Rose 2.5% in December as Lower Mortgage Rates Spur Some Buying

New home sales increased 2.3% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units (consensus 614,000) from a downwardly revised 602,000 (from 640,000) in November. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 26.6%. We have seen in the weekly mortgage applications reports that the pullback in mortgage rates has spurred some renewed demand among home buyers. Reality is though with rates over 6.2%, inflation high- and real-income lower affordability and supply pressures remain for many … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Rose 2.5% in December as Lower Mortgage Rates Spur Some Buying”

US Existing Home Sales fell 1.5% In December, Down for Eleventh Straight Month

US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors fell 1.5% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million (consensus 4.20 million) versus an unrevised 4.43 million in October. That is the eleventh straight month that existing home sales have fallen, the longest stretch since 1999, and the lowest level since November of 2010. Total sales in December were down 34.0% from one year ago.  All regions experienced year-over-year declines. The median existing-home sales price climbed … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales fell 1.5% In December, Down for Eleventh Straight Month”

NAHB Housing Market Index Finally Rises After Twelve Consecutive Monthly Falls

NAHB housing market index rose to 35 in January (consensus 31) from 31 in December which was the lowest level since mid-2012 with the exception of the spring of 2020.  Builder sentiment had declined every month in 2022. Earlier today the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 27.9% with purchase applications rising 25% and refinancing applications increasing 34%, perhaps we are seeing some positive real estate activity. While a 30-year fixed is down to 6.42% from a peak of 7.16% according … Continue reading “NAHB Housing Market Index Finally Rises After Twelve Consecutive Monthly Falls”

US Existing Home Sales plunged 7.7% In November, Down for Tenth Straight Month

November US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors fell 7.7% month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million (consensus 4.20 million) versus an unrevised 4.43 million in October. That is the tenth straight month that existing home sales have fallen. Total sales in November were down 35.4% from a year ago. Median price growth has slowed meaningfully as higher mortgage rates and inflation has enforced affordability pressures. Yesterday we heard total building permits declined … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales plunged 7.7% In November, Down for Tenth Straight Month”

NAHB Housing Market Index Fell for 12th Consecutive Month

NAHB housing market index fell to 31 in December (consensus 34) from 33 in November, the lowest level since mid-2012 with the exception of the spring of 2020. Forecasts were for a moderate rise to 34. Builder sentiment has declined every month in 2022. While a 30-year fixed is down to 6.42% from a peak of 7.16% according to the MBA it is still a long way from under 3% at the start of the year and inflation has been soaring … Continue reading “NAHB Housing Market Index Fell for 12th Consecutive Month”

US New Home Sales Rose 7.5% in October as Average Sales Price Jumped 11.5%

New home sales increased 7.5% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000 units (consensus 578,000) from a downwardly revised 588,000 (from 603,000) in September. The surprise rise went against the recent drawdown in housing demand as the Federal Reserve aggressively tightens monetary policy. Higher mortgage rates and higher prices pressured affordability even more for prospective buyers. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 5.8%. New home sales month-over-month/year-over-year by region: Note new home sales … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Rose 7.5% in October as Average Sales Price Jumped 11.5%”

US Existing Home Sales Fall for Ninth Straight Month in October at Weakest Sales Pace Since 2011 ex. Pandemic

October US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors fell 5.9% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million (consensus 4.38 million) versus an unrevised 4.71 million in September. That is the ninth straight month that existing home sales have fallen, and it is the weakest pace of sales since late 2011, excluding the 2020 pandemic period. Total sales in October were down 28.4% from a year ago. Higher interest rates are creating affordability pressures … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales Fall for Ninth Straight Month in October at Weakest Sales Pace Since 2011 ex. Pandemic”

US New Home Sales Slide 10.9% in September as Higher Mortgages Pressured Affordability

It appears the big jump in US new home sales for August was a sugar high. After the biggest increase since June 2020 last month new home sales declined 10.9% month-over-month in September. From a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units (consensus 575,000) from a downwardly revised 677,000 (from 685,000) in August. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 17.6%. Higher mortgage rates and higher prices pressured affordability even more for prospective buyers. New home sales declined … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Slide 10.9% in September as Higher Mortgages Pressured Affordability”

US Existing Home Sales Fall for Eighth Straight Month in September as Mortgage Rates Breach 7 Percent

August US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors fell 1.5% month-over-month in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million (consensus 4.70 million) versus a downwardly revised 4.78 million (from 4.80 million) in August. That is the eighth straight month that existing home sales have fallen with the weakest pace of sales since 2012, according to NAR. Total sales in September were down 23.8% from a year ago. Higher interest rates are creating affordability pressures … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales Fall for Eighth Straight Month in September as Mortgage Rates Breach 7 Percent”