NY Fed Williams Expects US Jobless Rate to Rise from 3.7% to 4.5-5.0%

The New York Fed president John Williams, who is a voting member of the FOMC was speaking at a virtual speech to the Economics Club of New York continued with a hawkish tilt on inflation saying, “There is still more work to do,” he is less the hawk with jobs. On inflation he expects it to cool to 5.0-5.5% by year end and 3.0-3.5% by late 2023, which is comparable to the range of 2.6-3.5% in the Fed’s SEP. Williams ahead of Fridays … Continue reading “NY Fed Williams Expects US Jobless Rate to Rise from 3.7% to 4.5-5.0%”

New York Fed Index Shows Global Supply Chain Pressures Decreased in August

The New York Federal Reserve surmised global supply chain pressures decreased in August, continuing the easing observed over the past three months in the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The index showed the August decline was quite broad-based, with decreases in delivery times recorded for all the countries in the sample. A decline in backlogs in the United Kingdom also made a significant downward contribution to the index. The index uses 27 variables that are meant to capture factors … Continue reading “New York Fed Index Shows Global Supply Chain Pressures Decreased in August”

Fed Must be Resolute and We Cannot Fall Short says NY Fed Williams

The New York Fed president John Williams, who is a voting member was speaking at a campus of the University of Puerto Rico continued with his hawkish tilt. He also focused on familiar themes saying and risks to the inflation outlook are particularly acute. His prepared speech followed a strong US jobs report for June and the release of the last FOMC minutes. The Fed holds around US$9 trillion of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President … Continue reading “Fed Must be Resolute and We Cannot Fall Short says NY Fed Williams”

Uncertainty About the Economic Outlook Remains Extraordinarily High says NY Fed Williams

The New York Fed president John Williams, who is a voting member was speaking to a symposium at Princeton University continued with his hawkish tilt. He said the process of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could start at the next meeting, May 3 & 4. He also focused on familiar themes saying and risks to the inflation outlook are particularly acute. The Fed holds around US$9 trillion of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. “These actions should enable us … Continue reading “Uncertainty About the Economic Outlook Remains Extraordinarily High says NY Fed Williams”

New York Fed Index Shows Global Supply Chain Pressures May Have Peaked

The New York Federal Reserve released a new Index, The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The NY Fed concluded that global supply chain pressures may have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward. The index uses 27 variables that are meant to capture factors that put pressure on the global supply chain, both domestically and internationally. GSCPI twenty-seven variables: The 27 variables include shipping rates and air freight costs between the United States, Asia and Europe. The … Continue reading “New York Fed Index Shows Global Supply Chain Pressures May Have Peaked”