UK PMI Shows Inflation Pressures at 16 Month Low but Uncertainty Hinders Employment

The UK manufacturing and service sectors contracted for a fifth month in December S&P Global flash PMI indices show. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. British companies cut staff for the first time since the COVID lockdowns of early-2021 with excess operating capacity developing relative to order book growth. Supplier delivery delays indicated the imbalance of supply and demand seen during the height of the COVID-19 crisis is now reversing. This shift saw Inflationary pressures … Continue reading “UK PMI Shows Inflation Pressures at 16 Month Low but Uncertainty Hinders Employment”

European PMI Shows Manufacturing and Services Improvement but Still in Contraction

European countries manufacturing and service sectors PMIs in December saw mostly improvements but nothing exciting S&P Global flash indices show. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging impact of tightened monetary policy. The S&P Global Eurozone Composite flash PMI® rose by one full point to 48.8 (47.9 consensus). Both the services (49.1, 48.5 … Continue reading “European PMI Shows Manufacturing and Services Improvement but Still in Contraction”

Germany December PMI Shows Declines in Manufacturing and Services Eased

German manufacturing and service sectors PMIs in December showed mostly modest improvements but nothing exciting S&P Global flash indices show. We continue to see the downturn in the German economy seen as easing. Recession risks overhang with the energy crisis and aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging impact of tightened monetary policy. German PMI December 2022  Firms’ costs notably rose at the slowest rate for … Continue reading “Germany December PMI Shows Declines in Manufacturing and Services Eased”

France Manufacturing and Services PMI Shows Deepening Downturn

The French flash French composite PMI slipped from 48.7 to 48.0 to signal a second consecutive monthly drop in output and the largest decline since November 2014 if the pandemic is excluded. France saw the steepest fall in its service sector activity for 22 months. There was a softening of the manufacturing downturn at the same time. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging … Continue reading “France Manufacturing and Services PMI Shows Deepening Downturn”

US Services Business Activity Accelerated in November, ISM Non-Manufacturing Shows

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for November increased to 56.5%, well ahead of a consensus 53.5% and up from 54.4% in October. The report follows the strong November jobs report released Friday indicating the economy is still hotter than the Federal Reserve would like at this time. Business activity for the non-manufacturing sector, which comprises the largest percentage of U.S. economic activity, strengthened in November, aiding the view that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. The November reading marks the … Continue reading “US Services Business Activity Accelerated in November, ISM Non-Manufacturing Shows”

US Service Sector Resilient in September ISM Shows as Price Pressures Ease

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for September pulled back to 56.7% (consensus 56.0%) from 56.9% in August. Employment surged as prices paid by businesses for inputs fell to more than a 1-1/2-year low, suggesting an underlying strength in the economy despite rising interest rates. Businesses continued to wrestle with pricing pressures, supply chain issues, and labor supply constraints. New orders received by services businesses slipped to 60.6 from 61.8 in August. Businesses, however, reported a rise in exports. The 12-month average … Continue reading “US Service Sector Resilient in September ISM Shows as Price Pressures Ease”

ISM US Non-Manufacturing Activity Rose in August

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for August rose to 56.9% (consensus 55.2%) from 56.7% in July.  Businesses continue to wrestle with pricing pressures, supply chain issues, and labor supply constraints. The services sector accelerated slightly in August at the same time there was a deceleration in the pace of price increases. The acceleration in overall activity suggests Federal Reserve will continue to raise its policy rate and will not move quickly to pivot to a rate-cut cycle. The dividing line between expansion … Continue reading “ISM US Non-Manufacturing Activity Rose in August”

US S&P Global July Services PMI Contracts to 26 Month Low 47.0 as Economy Shrivels

The key S&P Global July US services PMI collapsed to 47.0 vs 52.6 expected to a 26-month low., prior was 52.7 as growth for the services sector collapsed. The service Sector accounts for over 80% of the US GDP.  Services industries many supply chain disruptions bringing inflation risk and challenges with labor and product. The Flash US PMI Composite Output Index came in at 47.5 (June: 52.3) a 26-month low. The Flash US Manufacturing PMI was at 52.3 (June: 52.7) 24-month … Continue reading “US S&P Global July Services PMI Contracts to 26 Month Low 47.0 as Economy Shrivels”

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Slows for Third Straight month in June

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June fell to 55.3% (consensus 54.2%) from 55.9% in May, slowing for the third straight month as businesses continued to wrestle with pricing pressures, supply chain issues, and labor supply constraints. The 12-month average is 60.80 percent, which reflects consistently strong growth in the services sector. The June composite index indicated growth for the 25th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. but it is the lowest reading since May 2020. … Continue reading “ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Slows for Third Straight month in June”

American Household Financial Stress Highest Level Since Outset of the Pandemic in April 2020

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell to 41.2 in May of 2022 from 45.5 in April only barely above March’s eight-year low of 41. Rising interest rates, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and China’s COVID-related lockdowns all impacted the mood.  The six-month outlook for the US economy tumbled 6.5 points to 33.2, the lowest level since August 2011. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index May of 2022 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US fell to 41.2 in May of 2022 from 45.5 … Continue reading “American Household Financial Stress Highest Level Since Outset of the Pandemic in April 2020”