U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise 2.5% in December as Real Estate Market Stabilizes

US pending home sales unexpectedly rose 2.5% month-over-month in December of 2022, the first rise since May, and beating market forecasts of a 0.9% drop. Sales were higher in the South (6.1%) and the West (6.4%) but fell in the Northeast (-6.5%) and Midwest (-0.3%). For perspective year-on-year, pending home sales are down 33.8%. We saw positive signs yesterday we saw new home sales increased 2.3% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units (consensus 614,000) … Continue reading “U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise 2.5% in December as Real Estate Market Stabilizes”

US New Home Sales Rose 2.5% in December as Lower Mortgage Rates Spur Some Buying

New home sales increased 2.3% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units (consensus 614,000) from a downwardly revised 602,000 (from 640,000) in November. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 26.6%. We have seen in the weekly mortgage applications reports that the pullback in mortgage rates has spurred some renewed demand among home buyers. Reality is though with rates over 6.2%, inflation high- and real-income lower affordability and supply pressures remain for many … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Rose 2.5% in December as Lower Mortgage Rates Spur Some Buying”

US Existing Home Sales fell 1.5% In December, Down for Eleventh Straight Month

US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors fell 1.5% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million (consensus 4.20 million) versus an unrevised 4.43 million in October. That is the eleventh straight month that existing home sales have fallen, the longest stretch since 1999, and the lowest level since November of 2010. Total sales in December were down 34.0% from one year ago.  All regions experienced year-over-year declines. The median existing-home sales price climbed … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales fell 1.5% In December, Down for Eleventh Straight Month”

Unaffordable Real Estate Pushes US Housing Starts Down 1.4% and Building Permits Down 1.6% in December

US housing starts declined 1.4% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.425 million (consensus 1.355 million). Total building permits fell 1.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.330 million (consensus 1.370 million) and lowest level since May 2020. Affordability is the major issue; mortgage demand hovers near its lowest level since 1997. That said there was a positive element whereby new single-family starts increased by 11.3% month-over-month. Permits came as no surprise after recent … Continue reading “Unaffordable Real Estate Pushes US Housing Starts Down 1.4% and Building Permits Down 1.6% in December”

NAHB Housing Market Index Finally Rises After Twelve Consecutive Monthly Falls

NAHB housing market index rose to 35 in January (consensus 31) from 31 in December which was the lowest level since mid-2012 with the exception of the spring of 2020.  Builder sentiment had declined every month in 2022. Earlier today the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 27.9% with purchase applications rising 25% and refinancing applications increasing 34%, perhaps we are seeing some positive real estate activity. While a 30-year fixed is down to 6.42% from a peak of 7.16% according … Continue reading “NAHB Housing Market Index Finally Rises After Twelve Consecutive Monthly Falls”

American Home Prices in October Fell for Fourth Month says S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller

Major city home prices fell in October from the previous month as housing affordability continues to be crushed in America with higher mortgage interest rates and inflation. Price growth decelerated in all of the 20 cities. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.27% as of Dec. 22, up from 3.05% a year earlier, according to housing-finance agency Freddie Mac. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, fell 0.5% in October compared with September, the fourth straight … Continue reading “American Home Prices in October Fell for Fourth Month says S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller”

US Home Prices Flat in October FHFA House Price Index Shows

House prices with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were flat nationwide in October the FHFA House Price Index showed. Higher mortgage rates continued to put downward pressure on demand, weakening house price growth. On an annual basis, house prices rose by 9.8 percent, the least since September of 2020 and easing from the upwardly revised 11.1 percent increase in the previous month. Among the different census regions, a 0.9% drop in home prices in the Pacific and … Continue reading “US Home Prices Flat in October FHFA House Price Index Shows”

US Existing Home Sales plunged 7.7% In November, Down for Tenth Straight Month

November US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors fell 7.7% month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million (consensus 4.20 million) versus an unrevised 4.43 million in October. That is the tenth straight month that existing home sales have fallen. Total sales in November were down 35.4% from a year ago. Median price growth has slowed meaningfully as higher mortgage rates and inflation has enforced affordability pressures. Yesterday we heard total building permits declined … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales plunged 7.7% In November, Down for Tenth Straight Month”

US Building Permits Fell 11.2% in November as Homebuilders Confidence Turns to Despair

US housing starts fell 0.5% month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million units (consensus 1.395 million), single-unit starts fell even more, by 4.1% to 828,000. Total building permits declined much more than expected 11.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.342 million (consensus 1.480 million), with permits for single-unit dwellings dropping by 7.1%. Affordability remains the major issue; mortgage demand remains near its lowest level since 1997. Homebuilders’ confidence is all a low … Continue reading “US Building Permits Fell 11.2% in November as Homebuilders Confidence Turns to Despair”

NAHB Housing Market Index Fell for 12th Consecutive Month

NAHB housing market index fell to 31 in December (consensus 34) from 33 in November, the lowest level since mid-2012 with the exception of the spring of 2020. Forecasts were for a moderate rise to 34. Builder sentiment has declined every month in 2022. While a 30-year fixed is down to 6.42% from a peak of 7.16% according to the MBA it is still a long way from under 3% at the start of the year and inflation has been soaring … Continue reading “NAHB Housing Market Index Fell for 12th Consecutive Month”