Market Structure Notes — Helmholtz Watson TL;DR The Setup If long-end yields are rising even as central banks pause, the obvious question is: What’s driving them? The answer is increasingly clear: Term premium is back. What Is Term Premium (And Why It Matters Now) Term premium is the compensation investors demand for holding long-duration bonds instead of rolling short-term debt. For years, that premium was compressed—by design. Quantitative easing: In some cases, term premium turned negative. That regime is ending. … Continue reading “The Term Premium Is Back — And Markets Aren’t Ready”
Why Bond Yields Keep Rising Even as Central Banks Pause
Market Structure Notes — Helmholtz Watson A quiet regime shift with major trading implications TL;DR The Pause That Wasn’t April’s central bank meetings delivered a familiar message. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Bank of Japan all leaned on the same script: uncertainty around energy prices, sticky inflation, and a data-dependent path forward. Policy rates were largely unchanged. If you only listened to central banks, you’d think markets were on hold. Across developed … Continue reading “Why Bond Yields Keep Rising Even as Central Banks Pause”
Looking Ahead, Traders Bond Market Template for 2025
The year 2024 marked the fourth year that bonds underperformed cash, a record since Bloomberg started compiling the data on T-bill returns in 1991. US Treasuries gained 0.7% on average through Dec. 18, 2024, compared with a 5.1% return in T-bills. Over the past four years, bills returned a total of 12%, compared with a loss of 10% in government bonds. U.S. and global yields surged higher as the Fed began its easing cycle which meant bonds finished weaker than … Continue reading “Looking Ahead, Traders Bond Market Template for 2025”
US Producer Prices Continue to Deflate in November with Lower Energy Prices
The Producer Price Index for final demand in November continued with the disinflation view, PPI was unchanged month-over-month (consensus 0.1%), as was the index for final demand less foods and energy (consensus 0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 0.9%, versus 1.2% in October, and the index for final demand less foods and energy was up 2.0%, versus 2.3% in October. The index for processed goods for intermediate demand was unchanged month-over-month while the index … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Continue to Deflate in November with Lower Energy Prices”
US Producer Prices Deflate in October, Biggest Drop Since April 2020
The October Producer Price Index (PPI) followed on with the disinflation tact being seen in some consumer prices, which keeps pass-through effects to the consumer less an issue. The market has responded in kind the last few days sending stocks sharply higher and yields sharply lower. Total PPI was down 0.5% month-over-month (consensus 0.1%), the biggest drop since April 2020, following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.5%) in September. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged month-over-month … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Deflate in October, Biggest Drop Since April 2020”
US Producer Prices Higher in September, Pass Through Effects to Consumer Worry
U.S. producer inflation rose unexpectantly higher than forecast in September, rising 0.5% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) following a 0.7% increase in August. The Producer Price Index, excluding food and energy (core), rose 0.3% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in August. On a year-over-year basis, PPI was up 2.2%, versus 1.6% in August, and core PPI was up 2.7%, versus 2.2% in August. The report puts a hold on disinflation being seen in producer prices, which keeps pass-through effects to … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Higher in September, Pass Through Effects to Consumer Worry”
US Producer Prices Higher in August, Cost of Gasoline Surged 20%
U.S. producer inflation rose unexpectantly higher than forecast in August 0.7% month-over-month (consensus +0.2%) following a 0.3% increase in July. Prices being driven by higher fuel costs that risk tempering household spending and keeping inflation elevated. The cost of gasoline surged 20%, accounting for much of the gain. The core measure increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. On a year-over-year basis PPI was up 1.6% and excluding food and energy, was up 2.2%. On an annual basis, the PPI accelerated for … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Higher in August, Cost of Gasoline Surged 20%”
US Producer Price Disinflationary Trend Continues in June, Reprieve for Profit Margins
U.S. producer inflation continued to moderate in June on a year-over-year basis, total PPI was up just 0.1% year-over-year, versus 1.1% in May & 2.3% in April. Rising the least since the 2020 fall. Excluding food and energy, PPI was up 2.4% down from 2.8% year-over-year in May and 3.2% in April. Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1% month-over-month in June (consensus 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.4% decline (from -0.3%) in May. The core index for final … Continue reading “US Producer Price Disinflationary Trend Continues in June, Reprieve for Profit Margins”
US Producer Price Inflation Moderates Further in May, +1.1% versus +2.3% in April
U.S. producer inflation continued to moderate in May on a year-over-year basis, total PPI was up 1.1% year-over-year, versus 2.3% in April. Rising the least since December 2020. Excluding food and energy, PPI was up 2.8% year-over-year, versus 3.2% in April. Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.3% month-over-month in May (consensus -0.1%) while the index for final demand, less foods and energy (core PPI) increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. Wholesale inflation is moving lower, which should be pleasing … Continue reading “US Producer Price Inflation Moderates Further in May, +1.1% versus +2.3% in April”
US Producer Price Inflation Moderates Again in April, +2.3% versus +2.7% in March
U.S. producer inflation continued to moderate in April with April PPI on a year-over-year basis, total PPI was up 2.3% versus up 2.7% in March. Excluding food and energy, PPI was up 3.2% versus 3.4% in March. PPI rose 0.2% month-over-month in April (consensus +0.3%) following an upwardly revised -0.4% decline (from -0.5%) in March. The index for final demand (Core PPI), excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% month-over-month in April (consensus +0.3%) following an upwardly revised unchanged reading (from … Continue reading “US Producer Price Inflation Moderates Again in April, +2.3% versus +2.7% in March”