Chicago Economic Activity Surprises with ISM Sharp Jump into Growth in November

The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI jumped unexpectantly to 55.8 in November well above consensus 45.0 and up from 44.0 in October. The latest data was the first month of growth in Chicago’s economic activity since August 2022 which had seen a contraction in business activity in the Chicago region until this month. Below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The surprise came as high interest rates and inflation had continued to drag down the US manufacturing sector, however … Continue reading “Chicago Economic Activity Surprises with ISM Sharp Jump into Growth in November”

Chicago Economic Activity Improves in August but Still in Contraction ISM PMI Shows

High interest rates and inflation continue to drag down the US manufacturing sector, however we have seen some improvement. The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI rose to 48.7 in August of 2023 from 42.8 in July, and well above market forecasts of 44.1. The reading marked the 13th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region but the smallest in the current sequence that began in September 2022. Below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The … Continue reading “Chicago Economic Activity Improves in August but Still in Contraction ISM PMI Shows”

US Services Sector Grows at Slowest Pace in Five Month in July – S&P Global PMI

The Flash S&P Global Flash US Services Business Activity Index for July increased to 53.7%, below a consensus 51.5% and just over 52.6% in March. The rate of expansion eased to the slowest for five months. Services firms reported the slowest rise in employment for six months in July, continuing to highlight challenges retaining and attracting staff due to rising wage costs. Some firms also noted a lack of skilled candidates for open vacancies S&P reported. Service providers recorded a marginal … Continue reading “US Services Sector Grows at Slowest Pace in Five Month in July – S&P Global PMI”

France’s Deepening Economic Decline in Manufacturing and Renewed Reduction in Services

The French economy has flipped int a tailspin after four consecutive monthly expansions according to the latest PMI data for June. Headline HCOB Flash France Composite PMI Output Index slipped from 51.2 to 47.3 to signal the fastest rate of decline since February 2021. Service sector activity showed renewed weakness in June as it also fell into contractionary territory. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of … Continue reading “France’s Deepening Economic Decline in Manufacturing and Renewed Reduction in Services”

US Manufacturing Sector Continues to Shrink, ISM PMI Sub-50.0% for Sixth Consecutive Month

The ISM Manufacturing Index edged higher to 47.1 in April of 2023 from 46.3 in March, as it trys to recover from the lowest since May 2020. The report reflects a general contraction in manufacturing activity and marks the sixth straight month with a sub-50.0% reading. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s seventh consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe is adversely impacting … Continue reading “US Manufacturing Sector Continues to Shrink, ISM PMI Sub-50.0% for Sixth Consecutive Month”

US Services Sector Business Confidence & Output Growth Accelerates – S&P Global PMI

The Flash S&P Global Flash US Services Business Activity Index for April increased to 53.7%, ahead of a consensus 51.5% and just over 52.6% in March. The US services sector business confidence was the 2nd highest in a year. The upturn in output at service providers was the quickest for a year and solid overall, as greater employment and stronger demand supported the increase S&P said. New business grew for the second successive month in April, as the rate of expansion … Continue reading “US Services Sector Business Confidence & Output Growth Accelerates – S&P Global PMI”

U.S. Manufacturing Contraction Deepens, ISM PMI Approaches Pandemic Levels in March

The March ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 46.3% (consensus 47.5%) from 47.7% in February, the lowest reading since May 2020. The index contracted for the fifth straight month under 50%. Manufacturing activity at 46.3% the ISM corresponds to a change of -0.9% in real GDP on an annualized basis. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s seventh consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe … Continue reading “U.S. Manufacturing Contraction Deepens, ISM PMI Approaches Pandemic Levels in March”

Chicago Economic Activity Contracts for Seventh Straight Month in March

The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI eked out a gain to 43.8 in March of 2023 from 43.6 in January. High interest rates and inflation continue to drag down the US manufacturing sector. Figures came in higher than market forecasts of consensus 42.5, pointing to some balancing of economic activity in the Chicago region, which extended for a seventh straight month below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The Chicago PMI is the last of the regional manufacturing indices … Continue reading “Chicago Economic Activity Contracts for Seventh Straight Month in March”

February ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.7, Fourth Straight Month Sub-50.0%

The ISM Manufacturing Index edged higher to 47.7 in February of 2023 from 47.4 in January, which was the lowest since May 2020. The report reflects a general contraction in manufacturing activity and marks the fourth straight month with a sub-50.0% reading. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s sixth consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe is adversely impacting demand, evidenced by the … Continue reading “February ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.7, Fourth Straight Month Sub-50.0%”

European Manufacturing Production Rose First Time Since May 2022

European countries manufacturing PMIs in February remained in contraction (actual 48.5; prior 48.8) S&P Global flash indices show. Manufacturing production increased for the first time since May 2022, though fractionally. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. On a separate note, the European Central Bank began reducing holdings in its Asset Purchase Program portfolio today. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of … Continue reading “European Manufacturing Production Rose First Time Since May 2022”