December ISM Manufacturing PMI Lowest Since May 2020, Second Straight Month Sub-50.0%

The December ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 48.4% (consensus 48.5%) from 49.0% in November, reflecting a general contraction in manufacturing activity. The ISM hit its lowest level since May 2020 and marks the second straight month with a sub-50.0% reading. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s fourth consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Though it increased to 44.9 points in December the weakness is deep, recovering slightly from a 30-month low of … Continue reading “December ISM Manufacturing PMI Lowest Since May 2020, Second Straight Month Sub-50.0%”

UK PMI Shows Inflation Pressures at 16 Month Low but Uncertainty Hinders Employment

The UK manufacturing and service sectors contracted for a fifth month in December S&P Global flash PMI indices show. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. British companies cut staff for the first time since the COVID lockdowns of early-2021 with excess operating capacity developing relative to order book growth. Supplier delivery delays indicated the imbalance of supply and demand seen during the height of the COVID-19 crisis is now reversing. This shift saw Inflationary pressures … Continue reading “UK PMI Shows Inflation Pressures at 16 Month Low but Uncertainty Hinders Employment”

European PMI Shows Manufacturing and Services Improvement but Still in Contraction

European countries manufacturing and service sectors PMIs in December saw mostly improvements but nothing exciting S&P Global flash indices show. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging impact of tightened monetary policy. The S&P Global Eurozone Composite flash PMI® rose by one full point to 48.8 (47.9 consensus). Both the services (49.1, 48.5 … Continue reading “European PMI Shows Manufacturing and Services Improvement but Still in Contraction”

Germany December PMI Shows Declines in Manufacturing and Services Eased

German manufacturing and service sectors PMIs in December showed mostly modest improvements but nothing exciting S&P Global flash indices show. We continue to see the downturn in the German economy seen as easing. Recession risks overhang with the energy crisis and aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging impact of tightened monetary policy. German PMI December 2022  Firms’ costs notably rose at the slowest rate for … Continue reading “Germany December PMI Shows Declines in Manufacturing and Services Eased”

France Manufacturing and Services PMI Shows Deepening Downturn

The French flash French composite PMI slipped from 48.7 to 48.0 to signal a second consecutive monthly drop in output and the largest decline since November 2014 if the pandemic is excluded. France saw the steepest fall in its service sector activity for 22 months. There was a softening of the manufacturing downturn at the same time. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging … Continue reading “France Manufacturing and Services PMI Shows Deepening Downturn”

New York Fed Index Shows Global Supply Chain Pressures Decreased in August

The New York Federal Reserve surmised global supply chain pressures decreased in August, continuing the easing observed over the past three months in the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The index showed the August decline was quite broad-based, with decreases in delivery times recorded for all the countries in the sample. A decline in backlogs in the United Kingdom also made a significant downward contribution to the index. The index uses 27 variables that are meant to capture factors … Continue reading “New York Fed Index Shows Global Supply Chain Pressures Decreased in August”

Global Manufacturing PMI 26-Month Low with New Orders Fall Picking Up Speed 

Global manufacturing saw production fall in 20 of the 30 economies for which data was available according to the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), compiled by S&P Global. The index fell from 51.1 in July to 50.3 in August, its lowest since June 2020. Production losses were meanwhile recorded in the United States, Eurozone, UK and Japan. Inflation fell however, with weakening demand and improving supply with pricing power shifting from sellers to buyers. JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ … Continue reading “Global Manufacturing PMI 26-Month Low with New Orders Fall Picking Up Speed “

New York Fed Index Shows Global Supply Chain Pressures May Have Peaked

The New York Federal Reserve released a new Index, The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The NY Fed concluded that global supply chain pressures may have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward. The index uses 27 variables that are meant to capture factors that put pressure on the global supply chain, both domestically and internationally. GSCPI twenty-seven variables: The 27 variables include shipping rates and air freight costs between the United States, Asia and Europe. The … Continue reading “New York Fed Index Shows Global Supply Chain Pressures May Have Peaked”

Auto Makers Crushed By Supply Delays Hitting Production and Orders

Auto makers and parts makers experienced a steepening production decline in September with the sharpest drop in output since May of last year IHS Markit’s PMI surveys showed. Supply delays, which rose to unprecedented levels in September.

Stagflation Clouds British Economy Wracked by Lockdowns and Supply Constraints

The latest Flash PMI data for September from IHS Markit shows the fourth successive monthly slowing of business activity. At the same time goods and services inflation is rising at the fastest rate in at least 22 years. The Bank of England is rightly concerned on scaling back its pandemic stimulus. Stagflation from growth trending sharply lower while prices continue to surge higher is here, will it last? Supply constraints limit business activity the damage is clear from virus related … Continue reading “Stagflation Clouds British Economy Wracked by Lockdowns and Supply Constraints”