Tag: PBOC

The Federal Reserve’s next move is overhanging global financial markets, June FOMC is still ‘live’. Ahead of that we sees The BoC, RBA, RBI, CBR and BCRP decisions. The FOMC has gone into communications blackout ahead of the June 14th decision. We look towards the most recent data and mutterings. Friday’s US jobs report confused many with strong jobs growth but at the same time lower earnings and unemployment. Earlier in the week Cleveland Fed President Mester (not an FOMC … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – RBA, BOC, RBI with a Live FOMC Ahead”

The bond market is turning nervous as we continue to see bond and currency markets roiled by renewed debt ceiling theatrics and more data this week (PCE, GDP Price Index, Services PMI, Personal Income and Spending, Jobless Claims) pointing to resilient demand and inflation. The futures market is now pricing in a 69% probability of a 25-bps hike on June 14th, with peak Fed funds now at 5.33% for the July 26th meeting. Higher for longer is the pricing, the … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Resilient Demand and Inflation Data Confusing Bankers and Analysts”

We continue to see bond and currency markets roiled by renewed debt ceiling theatrics and in that setting we have another busy week of central bankers. We get minutes to the May 2nd – 3rd FOMC meeting which could inform pause versus hike bias and five regional central bank decisions offer modest risk to markets. RBNZ is nearly unanimous expected to hike again, Bank of Korea, Bank Indonesia and the Turkish Central Bank are all expected to extend pauses. The … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Fed, New Zealand, Korea, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa on Deck”

Three central bank decisions are on the books in the coming week. Most significant is the PBoC’s 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility Rate at the start of the week (Sunday 9:20pmET). Bankgo Sentral ng Pilipinas and Banco de México (Banxico) are expected to hold their overnight rates at unchanged. In the week ahead we have a deluge of Fed and ECB speakers on the docket highlighted by Federal Reserve Chair Powell and past Chair Bernanke participating Friday in a joint 45-minute … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Deluge of BOE, ECB and Fed Speakers including Powell and Bernanke”

A busy week for central Banks which mainly went as expected. The Fed raised rates in the face of an unfolding banking crisis. The ECB, Norges Bank, HKMA and Bank Negara all followed suite. A busy week for the Fed; we had the second largest bank failure in U.S. history with First Republic, now three of the top four largest failures over just the past two months. Fed Chair Powell in his Q&A replied, “We on the Committee have a … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Focus on Inflation Over Banking Crisis, Bank of England Ahead”

The week ended with another US Regional bank collapsing, the time The San Francisco-based First Republic Bank. Elsewhere, BoJ Governor Ueda’s first BoJ meeting saw no changes to its ultra-loose policy, but it replaced a pledge to keep rates at or below current levels with guidance for continued yield curve control (YCC) with an aim of achieving the price stability target.  Sweden’s Riksbank delivered another 50bps hike. In our central bank watch in the week ahead a lot to take … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Fed, ECB, RBA, Norges, Bank Negara and Brazil’s Policy Decisions”

The big event for Central Banks was the release of an independent review on the Reserve Bank of Australia, An RBA fit for the future. Uruguay’s central bank surprised with a quarter-point reduction in its key rate and Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. FOMC voters, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Fed President Williams and Cleveland Fed President Mester all said Fed needs to do more to get inflation back down to target. This week is Governor Ueda’s first decision … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Governor Ueda’s First BoJ Rate Decision, RBA Fit for The Future”

We had key monetary policy meetings from Bank of Canada, Peru’s central bank and the Bank of Korea which went as expected and there were no surprises in the FOMC minutes. Renewed hawkish sentiment at the Fed, ECB and BoC suggest that a hiking bias is back. We saw Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) impact markets Friday saying that the central bank has not made much progress on inflation. Fed Rate hike expectations climbed, with the implied likelihood of a … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Renewed Hawkish sentiment at the Fed, ECB and BoC”

Heading into Easter four central banks, RBA, RBNZ, RBI and BCCh delivered policy decisions with implications more for regional markets than global market conditions. We had two surprises the RBNZ rising more than expected and the RBI keeping rates unchanged. The RBA and BCCh acted as expected. In the week ahead we have key monetary policy meetings from Bank of Canada, Peru’s central bank and the Bank of Korea. Attention will also be on FOMC minutes that could materially inform … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – FOMC Minutes, Canada, Peru and Korea Monetary Policy Meetings”

A quieter week banker wise, FDIC Chairman Michael Barr told the Senate Banking Committee that he anticipates having to increase capital and liquidity standards for firms over $100 billion, adding that more regulation is needed. Bank of Thailand, Columbia BanRep and Mexico Banxico all hiked by 25bps as widely expected. South African Reserve Bank increased its benchmark repo interest rate by a bigger than expected 50 bps. Heading into Easter four central banks, RBA, RBNZ, RBA and BCCh will deliver … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – RBA, RBNZ, BCCh, RBI Monetary Policy Meetings”