New Twist in Gupta $590 Billion Nickel Fraud, Reuben Brothers Sue Trafigura

The Saga whereby Trafigura Group was defrauded by around $590 million has taken another twist. Bloomberg reports, citing documents, that Trafigura one of the largest commodity traders in the world is being sued by the Reuben brothers alleging that the fraud didn’t just involve thousands of tons of missing nickel, but also counterfeit shipping documents. Hyphen Trading Ltd., owned by the Reuben brothers accuses a Singapore freight forwarding company of being involved and raises questions about Trafigura’s own actions, saying … Continue reading “New Twist in Gupta $590 Billion Nickel Fraud, Reuben Brothers Sue Trafigura”

Trafigura May Have Been Fleeced for $577 Million in Nickel Fraud

Trafigura Group, one of the largest commodity traders in the world may have been defrauded as much $577 million in a fraud involving nickel and companies it believed were controlled by the metal’s trader Prateek Gupta. Nickel was party to a violent short squeeze last March when LME suspended nickel trading after Nickel prices roughly doubled to all-time highs up 500% in a day. Nickel soared over $100,000 a ton to an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange when … Continue reading “Trafigura May Have Been Fleeced for $577 Million in Nickel Fraud”

Alcoa Reports Another Quarterly Loss with Falling Aluminum Prices and Pressured Margins

The largest US Aluminum producer Alcoa reported a second consecutive quarterly loss as expected for the fourth quarter on Wednesday but missed on revenue. The company has been squeezed by higher energy and raw material costs and restructuring charges putting pressure on margins. $AA projects 2023 total alumina shipments of 12.7-12.9 million metric tons and aluminum shipments between 2.5-2.6 million metric tons. $AA traded down 5.5% after the release. Aluminum is down roughly 40% from a record high of approximately $4,000 … Continue reading “Alcoa Reports Another Quarterly Loss with Falling Aluminum Prices and Pressured Margins”

Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publish the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports with a breakdown of open interest for futures and options on futures markets. More specific, disaggregated reports (DCOT) came after the GFC in 2008. They are considered very helpful in understanding the positioning of traders in the futures market. Disaggregated Commitment of Traders Reports (DCOT) came about from a recommendation made by a CFTC September 2008 staff study about the influence of swap dealers and index traders … Continue reading “Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT”

Alcoa Surprise Loss on Falling Aluminum Prices and Rising Costs

The largest US Aluminum producer Alcoa reported worse than expected third quarter earnings on Wednesday. $AA warned just five weeks ago it was squeezed by higher energy and raw material costs and restructuring charges. Throw in falling Aluminum prices and the squeeze impact was obviously more than warned. The company reported an adjusted loss of $60 million or 33 cents a share, missing the average estimate of 8 cents profit. Aluminum prices are down more than 20% this year and … Continue reading “Alcoa Surprise Loss on Falling Aluminum Prices and Rising Costs”

Natural Gas and Palladium Best Performing Futures Third Quarter of 2022, Lumber and Gasoline the Worse

Futures and commodities saw another period of extreme volatility in the third quarter of 2022 as central banks aggressively rose interest rates globally to belatedly fight inflation. These movers sent the USD soaring, with the British Pound hitting an all-time low. The Chinese Yuan, Euro and Japanese Yen hitting historical lows. Commodities had violent swings depending on how big the reversal to the mean was after the moves at the start of the year. Consistency was not a theme for … Continue reading “Natural Gas and Palladium Best Performing Futures Third Quarter of 2022, Lumber and Gasoline the Worse”

Zinc Backwardation Widest Since 1997 With Inventories Lowest Level in Over 25 Years

More turmoil in the metals markets, backwardation in zinc stretched to the widest since 1997. That is the premium for spot zinc over futures spiked on Thursday to the 25 plus levels. The move comes from a supply squeeze after inventories slumped this week to the lowest level in at least 25 years. It was only three months ago an unprecedented short squeeze occurred in the nickel market, the LME said it’s monitoring the situation closely. LME suspended nickel trading … Continue reading “Zinc Backwardation Widest Since 1997 With Inventories Lowest Level in Over 25 Years”

Nickel Soars 500% on Chinese Bank Short Squeeze, Trading Suspended

LME suspended nickel trading for at least the remainder of the day Tuesday after Nickel prices roughly doubled to all-time highs Tuesday, up 500% from Friday. Nickel soared over $100,000 a ton to an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange when prices surged around $40,000 in just one hour. The move came from a short squeeze with a major Chinese bank where a unit of China Construction Bank Corp. extra time to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in … Continue reading “Nickel Soars 500% on Chinese Bank Short Squeeze, Trading Suspended”

The Energy Crisis and Volatility See Natural Gas and VIX the Best Performing Futures in January

Futures and commodities had a volatile start to 2022. January was about the energy crisis and interest rates and inflation. This pattern accelerated after the Fed minutes of the December FOMC took hold. This was borne out by the best performing futures being natural gas, VIX and Palladium. Energy was five of the highest gains for the month. The worse were lumber, ethanol and the major stock market indices. For the month S&P and Nasdaq have their worst month since … Continue reading “The Energy Crisis and Volatility See Natural Gas and VIX the Best Performing Futures in January”

Soaring Aluminum Prices Boost Alcoa Earnings to Highest Growth Rate in Over Five Years

Aluminum producer Alcoa reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings on Wednesday. Aluminum has seen prices rise 50% yr/yr. AA reporting quarterly records for adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA. Revenue rose 38% yr/yr, Alcoa’s highest growth rate in over five years. Alcoa Corp NYSE: AA Reported Earnings After Close Wednesday $2.50 Beat $1.93 EPS AND $3.30 Billion Beat $3.30 Billion Forecast in Revenue Earnings Alcoa reported $896 million in Ebitda in line with estimates. Adjusted earnings of $2.50 a share … Continue reading “Soaring Aluminum Prices Boost Alcoa Earnings to Highest Growth Rate in Over Five Years”