Chicago Economic Activity Surprises with ISM Sharp Jump into Growth in November

The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI jumped unexpectantly to 55.8 in November well above consensus 45.0 and up from 44.0 in October. The latest data was the first month of growth in Chicago’s economic activity since August 2022 which had seen a contraction in business activity in the Chicago region until this month. Below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The surprise came as high interest rates and inflation had continued to drag down the US manufacturing sector, however … Continue reading “Chicago Economic Activity Surprises with ISM Sharp Jump into Growth in November”

Chicago Economic Activity Improves in August but Still in Contraction ISM PMI Shows

High interest rates and inflation continue to drag down the US manufacturing sector, however we have seen some improvement. The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI rose to 48.7 in August of 2023 from 42.8 in July, and well above market forecasts of 44.1. The reading marked the 13th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region but the smallest in the current sequence that began in September 2022. Below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The … Continue reading “Chicago Economic Activity Improves in August but Still in Contraction ISM PMI Shows”

Texas Manufacturing Sees Lower Production with Sharp Jump in Wages – Dallas Fed

The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey manufacturing index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged up to negative 17.2 in August from -20 in July, still deep in negative territory. The new orders index has now been in negative territory for over a year at -15.8 from -18.1. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to -11.2—its lowest level since May 2020. A telling comment from transportation equipment manufacturing, “Vendor price increases have slowed … Continue reading “Texas Manufacturing Sees Lower Production with Sharp Jump in Wages – Dallas Fed”

US New Orders Entirely Driven by Service Sector, Manufacturing Lower Again – S&P Global PMI

The US economy is softening along with the global economy, no surprise with aggressive moves by central banks raising rates. S&P Global’s flash (prelim) US PMI Composite Output Index for June came in lower at 53.0 down from May’s 54.3 and at a 3-month low. We have been operating with manufacturing weakening and services strengthening, this month they both came off. The manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 in the preliminary reading for June from 48.4 in the prior reading. The … Continue reading “US New Orders Entirely Driven by Service Sector, Manufacturing Lower Again – S&P Global PMI”

German Industrial Base Still Struggling, April Factory Orders -0.4% vs +3.0% m/m Expected

Germany’s industrial powerhouse has still not recovered from the supply line crisis and then the difficulties of being so reliant on Russia for energy and the shocks that came with that. German industrial orders unexpectedly dropped by 0.4% m/m in April 2023, missing market estimates of a 3.0% rise and following an upwardly revised 10.9% fall in March. This was the second straight month of decline in industrial orders, dragged down a fall in large-scale orders. If you take out … Continue reading “German Industrial Base Still Struggling, April Factory Orders -0.4% vs +3.0% m/m Expected”

Texas Manufacturing Mood Worsens with Declining Orders and Outlook – Dallas Fed

The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey manufacturing index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged down to negative 29.1 in April from -23.4 prior to the lowest reading since July. The new orders index has now been in negative territory for a year and pushed down further from -9.6 to -16.1. The growth rate of orders index also fell, declining 10 points to -20.7, its lowest value since mid-2020. Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in May. The … Continue reading “Texas Manufacturing Mood Worsens with Declining Orders and Outlook – Dallas Fed”

US Two Speed Economy, Services Activity Rapid Expansion While Manufacturing Contracts – S&P

The S&P Global Flash PMI report PMI report for May 2023 underscored the strength in the US services sector versus a struggling manufacturing sector. Business activity for the services sector comprises the largest component of U.S. economic activity. The report shows the overall strength of the US economy despite the headwinds. The composite PMI index rose to 54.5 versus 53.5 last month, Services PMI rose 55.1 versus the 52.6 estimate and Manufacturing PMI flash floundered at 48.5 versus 50 expected. … Continue reading “US Two Speed Economy, Services Activity Rapid Expansion While Manufacturing Contracts – S&P”

US Manufacturing Sector Continues to Shrink, ISM PMI Sub-50.0% for Sixth Consecutive Month

The ISM Manufacturing Index edged higher to 47.1 in April of 2023 from 46.3 in March, as it trys to recover from the lowest since May 2020. The report reflects a general contraction in manufacturing activity and marks the sixth straight month with a sub-50.0% reading. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s seventh consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe is adversely impacting … Continue reading “US Manufacturing Sector Continues to Shrink, ISM PMI Sub-50.0% for Sixth Consecutive Month”

Dallas Fed Reports Texas Manufacturing Activity Contraction Deepens in April

The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey manufacturing index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged down to negative 23.4 in April from -15.7 prior to the lowest reading since July. There are bright spots however despite the company outlook worsening to -15.6 vs -13.3 prior. The new orders index did improve to -9.6 vs -14.3 prior, still it was the 11th month in a row negative. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions stayed position though down … Continue reading “Dallas Fed Reports Texas Manufacturing Activity Contraction Deepens in April”

U.S. Manufacturing Contraction Deepens, ISM PMI Approaches Pandemic Levels in March

The March ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 46.3% (consensus 47.5%) from 47.7% in February, the lowest reading since May 2020. The index contracted for the fifth straight month under 50%. Manufacturing activity at 46.3% the ISM corresponds to a change of -0.9% in real GDP on an annualized basis. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s seventh consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe … Continue reading “U.S. Manufacturing Contraction Deepens, ISM PMI Approaches Pandemic Levels in March”