US New Home Sales Rose 2.5% in December as Lower Mortgage Rates Spur Some Buying

New home sales increased 2.3% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units (consensus 614,000) from a downwardly revised 602,000 (from 640,000) in November. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 26.6%. We have seen in the weekly mortgage applications reports that the pullback in mortgage rates has spurred some renewed demand among home buyers. Reality is though with rates over 6.2%, inflation high- and real-income lower affordability and supply pressures remain for many … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Rose 2.5% in December as Lower Mortgage Rates Spur Some Buying”

US Existing Home Sales fell 1.5% In December, Down for Eleventh Straight Month

US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors fell 1.5% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million (consensus 4.20 million) versus an unrevised 4.43 million in October. That is the eleventh straight month that existing home sales have fallen, the longest stretch since 1999, and the lowest level since November of 2010. Total sales in December were down 34.0% from one year ago.  All regions experienced year-over-year declines. The median existing-home sales price climbed … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales fell 1.5% In December, Down for Eleventh Straight Month”

NAHB Housing Market Index Finally Rises After Twelve Consecutive Monthly Falls

NAHB housing market index rose to 35 in January (consensus 31) from 31 in December which was the lowest level since mid-2012 with the exception of the spring of 2020.  Builder sentiment had declined every month in 2022. Earlier today the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 27.9% with purchase applications rising 25% and refinancing applications increasing 34%, perhaps we are seeing some positive real estate activity. While a 30-year fixed is down to 6.42% from a peak of 7.16% according … Continue reading “NAHB Housing Market Index Finally Rises After Twelve Consecutive Monthly Falls”

High Mortgage Rates Saw Cancellations Jump 68% for Homebuilder KB Homes in Q4

Homebuilder KB Homes reported worse than expected fiscal fourth quarter 2022 earnings after the market Wednesday. KBH missed EPS by $0.38 and also missed on revenues. Results were “sharply lower demand stemming from higher mortgage interest rates, inflation and other macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.” Net orders decreased 80% yr/yr to 692. The company guided FY23 revenue inline. KBH shares were down 2.1% after hours. It has been a difficult time for home buyers and home builders alike with sliding home … Continue reading “High Mortgage Rates Saw Cancellations Jump 68% for Homebuilder KB Homes in Q4”

Homebuilder KB Homes Earnings Outlook in a Soft Property Market

Homebuilder KB Homes reports fiscal fourth quarter 2022 earnings after the market Wednesday. It has been a difficult time for home buyers and home builders alike with sliding home sales and affordability squeezed with high interest rates and inflation. Affordability remains the major issue; mortgage demand remains near its lowest level since 1997. Redfin reported pending home sales were down 32% year over year for the four-week period ending January 1. Real estate is experiencing record-low new listings. Analysts are … Continue reading “Homebuilder KB Homes Earnings Outlook in a Soft Property Market”

US Existing Home Sales plunged 7.7% In November, Down for Tenth Straight Month

November US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors fell 7.7% month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million (consensus 4.20 million) versus an unrevised 4.43 million in October. That is the tenth straight month that existing home sales have fallen. Total sales in November were down 35.4% from a year ago. Median price growth has slowed meaningfully as higher mortgage rates and inflation has enforced affordability pressures. Yesterday we heard total building permits declined … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales plunged 7.7% In November, Down for Tenth Straight Month”

NAHB Housing Market Index Fell for 12th Consecutive Month

NAHB housing market index fell to 31 in December (consensus 34) from 33 in November, the lowest level since mid-2012 with the exception of the spring of 2020. Forecasts were for a moderate rise to 34. Builder sentiment has declined every month in 2022. While a 30-year fixed is down to 6.42% from a peak of 7.16% according to the MBA it is still a long way from under 3% at the start of the year and inflation has been soaring … Continue reading “NAHB Housing Market Index Fell for 12th Consecutive Month”

Lennar Guides Lower on Weaker New Home Orders with Rising Rates and Elevated Inflation

Lennar Corporation reported better than expected Q4 earnings Wednesday, however forecasted a slowdown in orders for new homes as higher mortgage rates have crushed affordability. $LEN revenue was slightly above analyst forecasts. Lennar fell 2.6% in the premarket with high labor costs, a potential impending recession, an aggressive Federal Reserve and likely margin contraction as overhanging the home builder. LEN missed its new orders forecast of 14,000-15,500 for Q4, orders were just 13,200, a 15% decline yr/yr. Lennar is the … Continue reading “Lennar Guides Lower on Weaker New Home Orders with Rising Rates and Elevated Inflation”

US New Home Sales Rose 7.5% in October as Average Sales Price Jumped 11.5%

New home sales increased 7.5% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000 units (consensus 578,000) from a downwardly revised 588,000 (from 603,000) in September. The surprise rise went against the recent drawdown in housing demand as the Federal Reserve aggressively tightens monetary policy. Higher mortgage rates and higher prices pressured affordability even more for prospective buyers. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 5.8%. New home sales month-over-month/year-over-year by region: Note new home sales … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Rose 7.5% in October as Average Sales Price Jumped 11.5%”

US Existing Home Sales Fall for Ninth Straight Month in October at Weakest Sales Pace Since 2011 ex. Pandemic

October US existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors fell 5.9% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million (consensus 4.38 million) versus an unrevised 4.71 million in September. That is the ninth straight month that existing home sales have fallen, and it is the weakest pace of sales since late 2011, excluding the 2020 pandemic period. Total sales in October were down 28.4% from a year ago. Higher interest rates are creating affordability pressures … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales Fall for Ninth Straight Month in October at Weakest Sales Pace Since 2011 ex. Pandemic”