US Sees Strong Wage and Job Gains in March with Unemployment Lower

The market had expected the March report released Friday to show nonfarm payrolls rise 200k new jobs which it beat with 303k new jobs.  This follows a revised increase of 270,000 in February (from 275,000). Nonfarm private payrolls rose by 232,000 in March (consensus 160,000) following a revised increase of 207,000 in February (from 223,000). Job growth in March was led by faster hiring in health care, and construction. Leisure and hospitality jobs have now bounced back above its pre-pandemic … Continue reading “US Sees Strong Wage and Job Gains in March with Unemployment Lower”

U.S. Job Market in January Delivered Much Stronger Key Metrics with Huge NFP Upside Revisions

The January employment reports delivered much stronger key metrics than expected, nonfarm payrolls, private sector payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings were all stronger than expected. In particular payroll data where January non-farm payrolls came in 353K vs +180K expected and December was revised to +333K from+216K, November was revised to +173K from +164K, a combined 126,000 higher than previously reported. Updated population estimates decreased the estimated size of the civilian non-institutional population by 625,000 and the civilian … Continue reading “U.S. Job Market in January Delivered Much Stronger Key Metrics with Huge NFP Upside Revisions”

U.S. Job Market has Largest Drop in Household Employment Since April 2020 in December

U.S. Nonfarm payrolls rose 216,000 in December following downward revisions to the prior two months the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed Friday. The unemployment rate held at 3.7% while the workforce shrank. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from a month earlier. The surprisingly high headline NFP number however leaves us skeptical given revisions and the fact the latest revisions show the U.S. economy added just 44,000 private-sector jobs in October, showing the effects of multiple hits causing the economy to … Continue reading “U.S. Job Market has Largest Drop in Household Employment Since April 2020 in December”

U.S. Labor Market Continues to Cool Down in November, Striking Auto Workers Return to Work

The U.S. labor market for the second straight is showing the effects of multiple hits causing the economy to lose steam. U.S. employers added 199,000 workers in November, higher than the expected 183,000 consensus following a downwardly revised by 35,000 the advance for September and October. The UAW strikers returned, which was estimated at about 33,000 from payrolls last month. Government and health care were the source of gains. We have the unaffordability of higher borrowing costs following the Federal … Continue reading “U.S. Labor Market Continues to Cool Down in November, Striking Auto Workers Return to Work”

American Consumer Confidence Improves in November, But Caution with Downward Revisions

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index came in higher than expected at 102.0 for November (consensus 100.0). However, this came after a downwardly revised 99.1 (from 102.6) for October. Without the downwardly revised number for the prior month, it was lower, all in the headline as they say in these instant news cycles for the algorithms. Two things stood out, rising prices and higher interest rates are still pressuring consumer confidence. However, year-ahead inflation expectations dipped to 5.7% from 5.9%, … Continue reading “American Consumer Confidence Improves in November, But Caution with Downward Revisions”

U.S. Labor Market Slowing Down in October as Economy Loses Steam

The U.S. labor market is showing the effects of multiple hits causing the economy to lose steam. We have the unaffordability of higher borrowing costs following the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking spree, persistent inflation and war theatres in the Middle East and Ukraine. The report could lead Fed officials to extend their hiking pause. U.S. employers added 150,000 workers in October, lower than the expected 175,000 consensus following a downwardly revised 297,000 advance in September. The UAW strikes removed about … Continue reading “U.S. Labor Market Slowing Down in October as Economy Loses Steam”

U.S. Labor Market Resilience as Hiring Surged in September, Pressuring Bonds Further

The U.S. labor market appear to continue its resilience with U.S. employers adding 336,000 workers in August, higher than the expected 170,000 consensus. It was the biggest hiring month since January with wage growth cooling down pleasing the Fed. There was higher unemployment, but from greater participation. The report was incongruent with the ADP Employment Report for September which grew +89K vs +153K expected the lowest in five months was released a day ahead of the BLS employment report. The … Continue reading “U.S. Labor Market Resilience as Hiring Surged in September, Pressuring Bonds Further”

American Consumer Confidence Slumps in September with Job and Income Vulnerability

The Conference Board said Consumer Confidence slumped to 103.0 in September (consensus 105.0) from an upwardly revised 108.7 (from 106.1) in August. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 107.8. Three things stood out, consumers’ weakening expectations for future business conditions, job availability, and incomes, all of which has the potential to translate into softer spending activity. High interest rates, inflation coming down but rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular are … Continue reading “American Consumer Confidence Slumps in September with Job and Income Vulnerability”

U.S. Unemployment Rate Rises to 3.8%, Highest in 18 Months in August, NFP Revisions Concern

The U.S. labor market appear to continue its resilience with U.S. employers adding 187,000 workers in August, higher than the expected 170,000 consensus. The ADP Employment Report for August grew 177,000 in August 2023, the lowest in five months was released a day ahead of the BLS employment report. July’s employment gain was revised down by 30,000, from +187,000 to +157,000. The jobless rate was 3.8% in August the Labor Department reported Friday. The job market is still tight, with … Continue reading “U.S. Unemployment Rate Rises to 3.8%, Highest in 18 Months in August, NFP Revisions Concern”

Yields Fall After ADP Report 177K Jobs Added in August, Led by Small and Medium Businesses Again

The strength of the US labor market has shown signs of easing over the last few days, with a weaker JOLTS report yesterday and today’s report from private payroll company ADP. ADP reported that US private sector jobs grew 177,000 in August 2023, the lowest in five months and missing market expectations of a 195k rise and following an upwardly revised 371k increase in July. The service-providing sector added 154k jobs, led by education & health (52k), trade, transportation & … Continue reading “Yields Fall After ADP Report 177K Jobs Added in August, Led by Small and Medium Businesses Again”