Tag: JGB

U.S. Treasuries had another choppy week with the Fed and multiple central bank action raising rates. The action put the skids under US regional banks Thursday and European banks Friday sending CDS through the roof with safe haven bond buying. Deutsche Bank shares fell to levels not seen since October. In the U.S., the Treasury held an unscheduled meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. Treasuries saw yields on the 10-yr note and shorter tenors to levels not seen since … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Safe Haven Flows Impacted by Bank CDS”

U.S. Treasuries continued in the same vein as the previous week with safe haven flows from the continued fallout from the banking crisis. An intense squeeze engulfed the Treasury market. U.S. Treasuries ended the week toward their highest levels of the week. European and U.S. equities faced pressure from banks. First Republic Bank announced a suspension of its dividend and confirmed that it borrowed funds from the Fed’s discount window over the past week. This week’s action expanded the 2s10s … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Treasuries Rally with Flight to Safety Ahead of FOMC”

U.S. Treasuries rose sharply Friday surge, which extended the market’s strong bounce that took shape on Thursday. Treasuries surged with growing uncertainty over SVB Financials’ future and a concern that the bank’s share price collapse could be indicative of a bigger issue in the banking system. FDIC announced the seizure of SVB Financials’ assets, making for the second largest bank failure in the history of the United States. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the banking system remains resilient, but she … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Treasuries Safe Haven Surges with SVB and Silvergate Collapses”

U.S. Treasuries sold off all week until Friday. At one point the entire curve was over 4%. Ten-year Treasury yields traded as high as 4.09% the highest since November 9th. Benchmark MBS yields rose to 5.67%, up 100 bps over the past month, the highest since the ninth of November. Then on Friday a reversal lifted the long bond into positive territory for the week while shorter tenors recovered some of their losses from the past two days. Another week … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Continued Under Performance By 2-yr Note”

U.S. Treasuries added to their losses Friday while sovereign debt also retreated. Treasuries widened their losses in reaction to the Personal Income/Outlays report for January, which showed the Fed’s favorite indicator PCE Price Index accelerated from the December level. There were other strong economic reports including a much stronger-than-expected Services PMI (8-month high), New Home Sales for January and an upward revision to the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The 5-yr yield saw its highest level … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: US 10-yr and 30-yr Treasury Yields Rise on Inflation Risk”

U.S. Treasury yields closed a down week on a modestly higher note Friday, backing down from overnight highs tempering some selling pressure in the stock market.  The pullback snapped a three-day skid in the 5-yr note and longer tenors, earlier selling briefly saw the 5-yr yield to its highest level since early November. The 2-yr note yield hit 4.71% overnight and settled the session down two basis points to 4.61%. The 10-yr note yield hit 3.92% overnight and settled down … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: US Treasury Bonds Fall on Fed Higher for Longer”

U.S. Treasury yields moved along the curve which tightened the 2s10s spread by another basis point to -77 bps. Longer-dated Treasuries ended the week on a firmly lower note while the 2-yr note outperformed, logging a modest gain. A dovish Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) said that the fed funds rate range should be above 5.00%. He added the Fed is not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing. There … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: US Treasury Curve Sees 2 Year Note Outperform”

Friday was a day of reversal for all markets after the blowout jobs number. U.S. Treasury yields reversed sharply higher Friday, with two-year yields surging 19 bps. The data and yields that followed spurred a US dollar reversal, with the yen, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and South African rand all down around 2%. The euro was down 1.1% as it gained on the crosses. During the week we saw the BOE and ECB raise rates 50bps, the Fed and … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: US Treasury Yields Surge After Blowout Jobs Report”

U.S. Treasuries pulled back for the second consecutive day on Friday, resulting in a mixed finish for the week. Inflation watchers saw a milder PCE as expected while Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI rose 4.4% yr/yr in January it was back on topic. The 10-yr note yield settled the week at 3.52%. The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the Fed funds rate, settled at 4.21%. U.S. Treasuries completed this week’s spectacular note auctions with the $35 bln 7-yr … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: US Treasury Auctions Outperform Ahead of FOMC”

U.S. Treasuries continued the move from last week through Wednesday giving back most of those gains Friday resulting in a slightly higher finish for the week in most tenors. The long bond ended negative territory for the week while the 10-yr note and shorter tenors gave back most of their gains from Wednesday’s surge that sent yields on these tenors to levels not seen since September. Together with hopeful rhetoric Treasuries and European debt faced pressure at the end of … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: U.S. Treasuries Backed Off September Highs on Optimistic Chatter”