Chicago Economic Activity Surprises with ISM Sharp Jump into Growth in November

The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI jumped unexpectantly to 55.8 in November well above consensus 45.0 and up from 44.0 in October. The latest data was the first month of growth in Chicago’s economic activity since August 2022 which had seen a contraction in business activity in the Chicago region until this month. Below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The surprise came as high interest rates and inflation had continued to drag down the US manufacturing sector, however … Continue reading “Chicago Economic Activity Surprises with ISM Sharp Jump into Growth in November”

US ISM Services Sector PMI in October Shows Tenth Consecutive Month of Expansion

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index or Services PMI decreased to 51.8% in October (consensus 53.0%) from 53.6% in September. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, meaning in October services are still in expansion, but at a slower pace than September. October marked the tenth consecutive month of growth for the services sector. The trend tempers hard-landing fears and presumably and have contributed to the Fed’s inclination to implement additional tightening. The easrly release of a slowing jobs market … Continue reading “US ISM Services Sector PMI in October Shows Tenth Consecutive Month of Expansion”

Chicago Economic Activity Improves in August but Still in Contraction ISM PMI Shows

High interest rates and inflation continue to drag down the US manufacturing sector, however we have seen some improvement. The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI rose to 48.7 in August of 2023 from 42.8 in July, and well above market forecasts of 44.1. The reading marked the 13th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region but the smallest in the current sequence that began in September 2022. Below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The … Continue reading “Chicago Economic Activity Improves in August but Still in Contraction ISM PMI Shows”

US ISM Services Sector Growth Slows in July with New Orders and Employment Pullback

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July pulled back to 52.7% (consensus 53.0%) versus 53.9% in June. The deceleration in July suggests activity in the services sector lost some steam versus the prior month. Services sector activity continued to expand in July, but at a slower pace than the prior month. The majority of respondents remain cautiously optimistic about business conditions and the economy. Business activity for the services sector, which comprises the largest component of U.S. economic activity, has quickly rebounded … Continue reading “US ISM Services Sector Growth Slows in July with New Orders and Employment Pullback”

US ISM Services Sector PMI Expansion in June Shows Employment Rising While Prices Fall

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June was much higher than expectations at 53.9% (consensus 51.1%), increasing from 50.3% in May. The increase from May underscores the activity in the services sector picking up steam in June. The New Orders Index expanded in June for the sixth consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; rising to 55.5 versus 52.9 expected. The employment index rose to 53.1 versus 49.2 prior and new orders rose to 55.5 … Continue reading “US ISM Services Sector PMI Expansion in June Shows Employment Rising While Prices Fall”

US New Orders Entirely Driven by Service Sector, Manufacturing Lower Again – S&P Global PMI

The US economy is softening along with the global economy, no surprise with aggressive moves by central banks raising rates. S&P Global’s flash (prelim) US PMI Composite Output Index for June came in lower at 53.0 down from May’s 54.3 and at a 3-month low. We have been operating with manufacturing weakening and services strengthening, this month they both came off. The manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 in the preliminary reading for June from 48.4 in the prior reading. The … Continue reading “US New Orders Entirely Driven by Service Sector, Manufacturing Lower Again – S&P Global PMI”

US Two Speed Economy, Services Activity Rapid Expansion While Manufacturing Contracts – S&P

The S&P Global Flash PMI report PMI report for May 2023 underscored the strength in the US services sector versus a struggling manufacturing sector. Business activity for the services sector comprises the largest component of U.S. economic activity. The report shows the overall strength of the US economy despite the headwinds. The composite PMI index rose to 54.5 versus 53.5 last month, Services PMI rose 55.1 versus the 52.6 estimate and Manufacturing PMI flash floundered at 48.5 versus 50 expected. … Continue reading “US Two Speed Economy, Services Activity Rapid Expansion While Manufacturing Contracts – S&P”

US ISM Services Sector PMI Expansion in April Supports Soft Landing outlook

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April increased to 51.9% (consensus 51.9%) from 51.2% in March. The US services sector expanded in February for the fourth consecutive month. Business activity for the services sector, which comprises the largest component of U.S. economic activity, has quickly rebounded into growth mode after contracting for the first time since May 2020 in December. The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions, yet some see headwinds related to inflation and an economic slowdown.  This is … Continue reading “US ISM Services Sector PMI Expansion in April Supports Soft Landing outlook”

US Manufacturing Sector Continues to Shrink, ISM PMI Sub-50.0% for Sixth Consecutive Month

The ISM Manufacturing Index edged higher to 47.1 in April of 2023 from 46.3 in March, as it trys to recover from the lowest since May 2020. The report reflects a general contraction in manufacturing activity and marks the sixth straight month with a sub-50.0% reading. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s seventh consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe is adversely impacting … Continue reading “US Manufacturing Sector Continues to Shrink, ISM PMI Sub-50.0% for Sixth Consecutive Month”

U.S. Manufacturing Contraction Deepens, ISM PMI Approaches Pandemic Levels in March

The March ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 46.3% (consensus 47.5%) from 47.7% in February, the lowest reading since May 2020. The index contracted for the fifth straight month under 50%. Manufacturing activity at 46.3% the ISM corresponds to a change of -0.9% in real GDP on an annualized basis. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s seventh consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe … Continue reading “U.S. Manufacturing Contraction Deepens, ISM PMI Approaches Pandemic Levels in March”