The ISM Manufacturing Index for December came in at 58.7% under the consensus 60.3% and 61.1% in November. Of note was the Prices Index falling to 68.2% from 82.4%. Price pressures mellowed, are still alleviated but a sharp pullback. The assumption is improved supply chain conditions; the question is does the Omicron variant bring the gains undone, or become deflationary with demand destruction? January will be illuminating. The Prices Index 14.2-percentage point decrease month over month is big but ISM’s … Continue reading “December Manufacturing ISM Prices Index Fell Sharply, Is Inflation Peaking?”
The key ISM July US services index soared to an all time high 64.1 vs 60.1% in June, the fourteenth straight month of growth for the services sector which accounts for over 80% of the US GDP. Services industries pent-up demand with many supply chain disruptions bringing inflation risk and challenges with labor and product.
The key ISM March US services index soared to an all time high 63.7 vs 59.0 marks the tenth straight month of growth for the services sector which accounts for over 80% of the US GDP. All 18 services industries reported growth with many getting supply chain disruptions bringing inflation risk.
Manufacturing in the US contracted more than expected in May as measured by the ISM and by Markit. Output was off as prices paid rose giving an earlier indication of the tariff affect.
Manufacturing surged in August as measured by the ISM by 61.3 from an expected 57.6. However that is just half the story, 15 minutes earlier US August final Markit Manufacturing was reported as the lowest since November 2017 with PMI 54.7 vs 54.5 expected. Sceptism should be applied to both reports.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in Q4 2017 rose to 5.4% on February 1, up from 4.2% on January 29 spurred by manufacturing ISM Report increased forecasts spending and real private fixed-investment growth.