The S&P Global Flash PMI report PMI report for May 2023 underscored the strength in the US services sector versus a struggling manufacturing sector. Business activity for the services sector comprises the largest component of U.S. economic activity. The report shows the overall strength of the US economy despite the headwinds. The composite PMI index rose to 54.5 versus 53.5 last month, Services PMI rose 55.1 versus the 52.6 estimate and Manufacturing PMI flash floundered at 48.5 versus 50 expected. … Continue reading “US Two Speed Economy, Services Activity Rapid Expansion While Manufacturing Contracts – S&P”
US ISM Services Sector PMI Expansion in April Supports Soft Landing outlook
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April increased to 51.9% (consensus 51.9%) from 51.2% in March. The US services sector expanded in February for the fourth consecutive month. Business activity for the services sector, which comprises the largest component of U.S. economic activity, has quickly rebounded into growth mode after contracting for the first time since May 2020 in December. The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions, yet some see headwinds related to inflation and an economic slowdown. This is … Continue reading “US ISM Services Sector PMI Expansion in April Supports Soft Landing outlook”
US Manufacturing Sector Continues to Shrink, ISM PMI Sub-50.0% for Sixth Consecutive Month
The ISM Manufacturing Index edged higher to 47.1 in April of 2023 from 46.3 in March, as it trys to recover from the lowest since May 2020. The report reflects a general contraction in manufacturing activity and marks the sixth straight month with a sub-50.0% reading. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s seventh consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe is adversely impacting … Continue reading “US Manufacturing Sector Continues to Shrink, ISM PMI Sub-50.0% for Sixth Consecutive Month”
U.S. Manufacturing Contraction Deepens, ISM PMI Approaches Pandemic Levels in March
The March ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 46.3% (consensus 47.5%) from 47.7% in February, the lowest reading since May 2020. The index contracted for the fifth straight month under 50%. Manufacturing activity at 46.3% the ISM corresponds to a change of -0.9% in real GDP on an annualized basis. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s seventh consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe … Continue reading “U.S. Manufacturing Contraction Deepens, ISM PMI Approaches Pandemic Levels in March”
Chicago Economic Activity Contracts for Seventh Straight Month in March
The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI eked out a gain to 43.8 in March of 2023 from 43.6 in January. High interest rates and inflation continue to drag down the US manufacturing sector. Figures came in higher than market forecasts of consensus 42.5, pointing to some balancing of economic activity in the Chicago region, which extended for a seventh straight month below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The Chicago PMI is the last of the regional manufacturing indices … Continue reading “Chicago Economic Activity Contracts for Seventh Straight Month in March”
US Services Sector PMI Continues Return To Expansion in February – ISM
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for February increased to 55.1%, ahead of a consensus 54.5% and just under 55.2% in January. The US services sector expanded in February for the second consecutive month. Business activity for the services sector, which comprises the largest component of U.S. economic activity, has quickly rebounded into growth mode after contracting for the first time since May 2020 in December. The sector has grown in 32 of the last 33 months, with the lone contraction in December. This … Continue reading “US Services Sector PMI Continues Return To Expansion in February – ISM”
February ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.7, Fourth Straight Month Sub-50.0%
The ISM Manufacturing Index edged higher to 47.7 in February of 2023 from 47.4 in January, which was the lowest since May 2020. The report reflects a general contraction in manufacturing activity and marks the fourth straight month with a sub-50.0% reading. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s sixth consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe is adversely impacting demand, evidenced by the … Continue reading “February ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.7, Fourth Straight Month Sub-50.0%”
Chicago Economic Activity Contracts Further ISM PMI Shows in February
High interest rates and inflation continue to drag down the US manufacturing sector. The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI fell for a second consecutive month to 43.6 in February of 2023 from 44.3 in January. Figures came in lower than market forecasts of 45, pointing to another contraction in economic activity in the Chicago region, which extended for a sixth straight month. Below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The Chicago PMI is the last of the regional manufacturing … Continue reading “Chicago Economic Activity Contracts Further ISM PMI Shows in February”
US Services Sector Rebounded Sharply from Contraction in January – ISM
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for November increased to 55.2%, well ahead of a consensus 50.3% and up from 49.6% in December. Business activity for the services sector, which comprises the largest component of U.S. economic activity, quickly rebounded into growth mode after contracting for the first time since May 2020 in December. This is supportive for the soft-landing scenario. The report follows the blowout January jobs report also released Friday indicating the economy is still hotter than the Federal Reserve would … Continue reading “US Services Sector Rebounded Sharply from Contraction in January – ISM”
January ISM Manufacturing PMI Lowest Since May 2020, Third Straight Month Sub-50.0%
The January ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 47.4% (consensus 48.0%) from 48.4% in December, reflecting a general contraction in manufacturing activity. The ISM hit its lowest level since May 2020 and marks the third straight month with a sub-50.0% reading. The result was consistent with the regional Chicago PMI’s fifth consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region. Clearly the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe is adversely impacting demand, evidenced by the fifth straight … Continue reading “January ISM Manufacturing PMI Lowest Since May 2020, Third Straight Month Sub-50.0%”