Core PCE Prices in December at 6 Month Annualized 1.9%, Below Fed’s 2% Target

The core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% in December (consensus 0.2%) following a 0.1% increase in November. This is the sixth month in the last seven where monthly inflation has printed at a rate equal to or below the Fed’s 2% target. The PCE Price Index rose 0.2% in December (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a 0.1% decline in November. With the December changes, the PCE Price Index was up 2.6% year-over-year, unchanged from … Continue reading “Core PCE Prices in December at 6 Month Annualized 1.9%, Below Fed’s 2% Target”

First Decline in PCE Prices since 2020, Soft Landing Case Boosted by Real Disposable Personal Income

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, increased 0.1% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%), taking the year-over-year change to 3.2% from 3.4%. The PCE Price Index declined 0.1% month-over-month consensus 0.1%), taking the year-over-year change to 2.6% from 2.9% in October. That was the first decline in the PCE Price Index since 2020. Prices are moving in the right direction for the Fed, but caution needed as Fed speakers’ remarks remind to think … Continue reading “First Decline in PCE Prices since 2020, Soft Landing Case Boosted by Real Disposable Personal Income”

Yearly Core PCE inflation Eased in September, Though Monthly Prices Continue to Stick

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the annual core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, eased slightly to 3.7%, the lowest since May 2021, but held sharply above the central bank’s target of 2%. For the month it increased by 0.3% from the previous month in September of 2023, the most in 4 months per market expectations. and accelerating from the 0.1% increase in August. PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month, the same as in August and above market forecasts … Continue reading “Yearly Core PCE inflation Eased in September, Though Monthly Prices Continue to Stick”

Core PCE inflation Decelerated in August, Though Energy Prices Cause Concern

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, came in lower than consensus rising 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in August. Core-CPE Price Index decelerated to 3.9% yr/yr from an upwardly revised 4.3% (from 4.2%) in July. The key takeaway core price growth was a cooler than expected, though the overall report showed price pressures remain and the surge in energy prices to factor in coming months. Prices as measured by the PCE index over … Continue reading “Core PCE inflation Decelerated in August, Though Energy Prices Cause Concern”

Core PCE inflation Rises to +4.2% from 4.1% in July Keeping Fed Awake

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, came in per consensus at persistently high levels in July. Core-CPE Price Index was up 4.2%, versus 4.1% in June. The key takeaway from the report would have to be the uptick in the year-over-year inflation readings. Not alarming but the Fed will notice as it looks at a basis not to cut rates in the near future. Prices as measured by the PCE index … Continue reading “Core PCE inflation Rises to +4.2% from 4.1% in July Keeping Fed Awake”

Core PCE inflation Falls to +4.1% from 4.6% in June

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, moved lower than consensus at persistently high levels in June. Core PCE dipped to 4.1% from 4.6% y/y and rose 0.2% in June (consensus 0.2%) following a 0.3% increase in May. Prices as measured by the PCE index over the past year slowed to 3.0% from 3.8% and dropped to the lowest level in two years in June. and rose 0.2% in June (consensus 0.2%) … Continue reading “Core PCE inflation Falls to +4.1% from 4.6% in June”

Key Fed Inflation Guage Falls in May, Core PCE 4.6% from 4.7%

Prices as measured by the PCE index over the past year slowed to 3.8% from 4.3% and dropped to the lowest level in two years in June. Lower gas prices have been the main impact. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, moved lower than consensus at persistently high levels in May. Core PCE dipped to 4.6% from 4.7% y/y and rose a sharper 0.3% as expected. In response stock futures climbed … Continue reading “Key Fed Inflation Guage Falls in May, Core PCE 4.6% from 4.7%”

Robust Increase in Real Spending with Core PCE Inflation at Persistently High Levels in April

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE Price Index, proved higher than consensus at persistently high levels in April. The markets recognized the report showed a combination of a robust 0.5% increase in real spending and the uptick in the year-over-year rates for the PCE Price Index and core-PCE Price Index. That combination will give the Fed some pause about pausing its rate hikes in June. The personal consumption expenditure price index (Core PCE prices) in the US, which exclude … Continue reading “Robust Increase in Real Spending with Core PCE Inflation at Persistently High Levels in April”

US Core PCE Inflation Held Steady at Persistently High Levels in March

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE Price Index, held steady at persistently high levels in March. The personal consumption expenditure price index (Core PCE prices) in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.3% versus 0.3% expected.  The annual rate, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation came in at 4.6% year-over-year versus 4.7% in February. The markets recognized that the Fed will be more confident that hiking 25 bps at the last FOMC was correct and … Continue reading “US Core PCE Inflation Held Steady at Persistently High Levels in March”

US Core PCE Inflation Comes in Lighter Than Expected in February

The core personal consumption expenditure price index (Core PCE prices) in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. Last month 0.5% revised down from 0.6%.  The annual rate, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation came in at 4.6% vs 4.7% expected, down from the prior 4.7%.  The markets recognized that the Fed will be more confident that hiking 25 bps at the last FOMC was correct and 5.25% is a just terminal rate. … Continue reading “US Core PCE Inflation Comes in Lighter Than Expected in February”