The core personal consumption expenditure price index (Core PCE prices) in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.6% versus 0.4% expected. Last month 0.4% revised up from 0.3%. The annual rate, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation came in at 4.7% vs 4.3% expected, noticeably the 4.4% prior revised up to 4.6%. The markets recognized that there isn’t disinflation in this report. There is inflation in it and reacted swiftly to fears of more aggressive Fed … Continue reading “Yields Jump as US Core PCE Inflation Comes in Hotter, Prior Month Revised Higher”
Fed Impact Felt as Personal Spending and Inflation Soften in December
The core personal consumption expenditure price index (Core PCE prices) in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.3 percent month-over-month in December of 2022 as expected. The annual rate, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, fell to 4.4 percent from 4.7 percent, also within expectations. Notably real personal spending declined 0.3% month-over-month in December. We are seeing a continued moderation of inflation pressures; however, services inflation was up 0.5% month-over-month following a 0.3% increase in November … Continue reading “Fed Impact Felt as Personal Spending and Inflation Soften in December”
US Stagflation Risk with Real Personal Spending Flat While Core PCE Inflation Rates Too High
The core personal consumption expenditure price index (Core PCE prices) in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.2 percent month-over-month in November of 2022 as expected. The annual rate, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, fell to 4.7 percent from 4.7 percent, also with expectations. The report reminded us of stagflation risk, real spending was flat while the inflation rates were still too high for the Fed’s liking. Federal Reserve Governor Chairman Powell reminded us at … Continue reading “US Stagflation Risk with Real Personal Spending Flat While Core PCE Inflation Rates Too High”
Fed’s Key Inflation Measure Core PCE Rises 0.2% in October as Personal Spending Picks Up
The core personal consumption expenditure price index (Core PCE prices) in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.2 percent month-over-month in October of 2022 less than 0.3% expected. The annual rate, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, fell to 5.0 percent from 5.1 percent, below expectations of 5.2 percent. Federal Reserve Governor Chairman Powell reminded us yesterday at the FOMC that the Fed’s key influence or measure for inflation is the core PCE index. Notably personal … Continue reading “Fed’s Key Inflation Measure Core PCE Rises 0.2% in October as Personal Spending Picks Up”
Key Inflation Measure Core PCE Still Elevated at 0.5% in September
The core personal consumption expenditure price index (Core PCE prices) in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.5 percent month-over-month in September of 2022 as expected. The annual rate, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose to 5.1 percent from 4.9 percent, below expectations of 5.2 percent. Federal Reserve Governor Chairman Powell reminded us at the FOMC that the Fed’s key influence or measure for inflation is the core PCE index. Food prices increased 11.9 percent … Continue reading “Key Inflation Measure Core PCE Still Elevated at 0.5% in September”
Key Core Inflation PCE Measures Dropped in Q3 from Q2
The Core price index for personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE prices) in the US, which exclude food and energy, fell to 4.5% as expected in Q3 from 4.7% in Q2. The PCE Price Index dropped significantly to 4.2% in Q3 from 7.3% in Q2. Federal Reserve Governor Chairman Powell reminded us at the FOMC that the Fed’s key influence or measure for inflation is the core PCE index. The numbers were released with the US Q3 advance GDP +2.6% vs +2.4% … Continue reading “Key Core Inflation PCE Measures Dropped in Q3 from Q2”
Inflation Higher with Fed Reserve Key Measure Core PCE Rising 0.6% in August
Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.6% month-over-month in August of 2022, above market expectations of a 0.5% rise. Core PCE unexpectedly rose to 4.9% from upwardly revised 4.7 percent in the prior month and expectations of 4.7. Federal Reserve Governor Chairman Powell reminded us at the FOMC that the Fed’s key influence or measure for inflation is the core PCE index. Food prices increased 12.4 percent and energy prices increased 24.7 percent over … Continue reading “Inflation Higher with Fed Reserve Key Measure Core PCE Rising 0.6% in August”
US Inflation at 40 Year Highs with Fed Reserve Key Measure Core PCE Rising 0.6% in June
Federal Reserve Governor Chairman Powell reminded us at this week’s FOMC that the Fed’s key influence or measure for inflation is the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, Core PCE index increased 4.8% in June from a year ago, up from 4.7% in May. Rising energy prices continue to be a key factor driving inflation and global oil prices remain elevated. On a monthly basis, core prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in June from a … Continue reading “US Inflation at 40 Year Highs with Fed Reserve Key Measure Core PCE Rising 0.6% in June”
U.S. Personal Income Rose 0.5% as Core PCE Rose 0.3% in May
US Personal income rose 0.5% month-over-month in May as rising prices hover just under the fastest rate in 40 years. Personal spending rose 0.2% month-over-month. Rising energy prices continue to be a key factor driving inflation and global oil prices remain elevated. The core PCE price index dropped year-over-year to 4.7% from 4.9% in April. The PCE price index is closely watched since it is the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, which has begun raising interest rates for … Continue reading “U.S. Personal Income Rose 0.5% as Core PCE Rose 0.3% in May”
U.S. Savings Rate Falls to Lowest Since 2008 with Core PCE at+4.9% in April
The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, US core PCE came in at 4.9% YoY as expected, down from 5.2% YoY the previous month and inspiring those calling for peak inflation. The inflation numbers are coming off levels not seen for 40 years. Rising energy prices continue to be a key factor driving inflation and global oil and natural gas prices have been moving steadily higher following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which could disrupt supply. Personal income rose 0.4% but personal … Continue reading “U.S. Savings Rate Falls to Lowest Since 2008 with Core PCE at+4.9% in April”