U.S. Home Prices Pace Higher, up 4.9% yr/yr in October – S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index in the US was up 4.9% yr/yr in October (consensus 5.0%) after increasing 3.9% in September. The Jump was the largest increase since November 2022 in line with market expectations. Supply continues to pressure prices despite higher interest rates with as a shortage of available homes for sale. Looking forward we have seen easing mortgage rates and the Federal Reserve signaling a slightly more accommodative stance in a so-called dovish pivot. This … Continue reading “U.S. Home Prices Pace Higher, up 4.9% yr/yr in October – S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller”

US Home Prices Rise 0.3% in October FHFA House Price Index Shows, Middle Atlantic Strongest

The FHFA Housing Price Index rose 0.3% m/m in October after increasing a revised 0.7% (from 0.6%) in September. For the nine census divisions, monthly price changes ranged from -0.3 percent in the New England division to +1.1 percent in the Middle Atlantic division. Year-on-year, house prices rose by 6.3% in October, accelerating from 6.2% the month before. The 12-month changes ranged from +2.6 percent in the Mountain division to +9.9 percent in the Middle Atlantic division. The shows the … Continue reading “US Home Prices Rise 0.3% in October FHFA House Price Index Shows, Middle Atlantic Strongest”

US New Home Sales Slump 12.2% in November, South Down 20.9% on Supply

New home sales fell 12.2% month-over-month in November in the largest decline since April 2022. There were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units (consensus 689,000) from a downwardly revised 672,000 (from 679,000) in October. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 1.4%. New home sales activity fell hard paced by the South, largest region for new home sales where prices are generally more affordable. The weakness stems somewhat from supply constraints for lower-priced homes and … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Slump 12.2% in November, South Down 20.9% on Supply”

US Existing Home Sales Rebound 0.8% in November as Mortgage Rates Fall

US existing home sales in November rose 0.8% on the month to 3.82M vs 3.77M estimate and the prior month 3.79M annualized, finishing a five-month drop. Sales retreated 7.3% from one year ago.The median existing-home sales price rose 4.0% from November 2022 to $387,600, the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Inventory is still tight at 1.130M or 3.5 months, down 1.7% from the previous month. High mortgage rates, high selling prices, and limited inventory are still holding back … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales Rebound 0.8% in November as Mortgage Rates Fall”

US Housing Starts Surge 14.8% in November, With Single Units Up 18%

US housing starts increased 14.8% month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.560 million units (consensus 1.360 million) with single-unit activity positive, up a robust 18.0% for starts. US building permits in November decreased 2.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.460 million Single-unit activity was also positive here, though up a more modest 0.7% for permits. The housing market has been constrained by a low inventory of existing homes for sale. Yesterday, the NAHB/Wells … Continue reading “US Housing Starts Surge 14.8% in November, With Single Units Up 18%”

NAHB Housing Market Index Shows Some Life in December, First Improvement in 5 Months

NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index moved up to 37 in December 2023 from 34 in November, ahead of forecasts of 36. It was the first improvement in sentiment in five months, bouncing off its lowest point since December 2022. The positivity came from declining mortgage rates that sparked increased interest among potential buyers and raised expectations for sales. The sub-index for expected home sales over the next six months went up to 45 from 39. The fall in the housing … Continue reading “NAHB Housing Market Index Shows Some Life in December, First Improvement in 5 Months”

U.S. Pending Home Sales Fell 1.5% in October After Suprise Rise in September

US pending Home Sales were down 1.5% in October (consensus -2.3%) after increasing a revised 1.0% (from 1.1%) in September. The fall comes with soaring mortgage rates with unprecedented rate hikes delivered by the Fed. October comes after a surprise rise in September when limited supply and builder incentives spurred the sales. For perspective year-on-year, pending home sales are down by 6.6 percent in October of 2023 over the same month in the previous year.  West, Midwest and South posted … Continue reading “U.S. Pending Home Sales Fell 1.5% in October After Suprise Rise in September”

US New Home Sales Slump 5.6% in October, Downwardly Revised for September

New home sales fell 5.6% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units (consensus 720,000) from a downwardly revised 719,000 (from 759,000) in September. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 17.7%. Noticeably new home sales activity slumped in October despite a big drop in median and average selling prices. The latter had to do with a large decline in sales in the high-priced West region. What is clear is inflation and high mortgage … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Slump 5.6% in October, Downwardly Revised for September”

US Existing Home Sales Fell 4.1% in October at Slowest Pace Since August 2010

High mortgage rates, high selling prices, and limited inventory saw US existing home sales at the slowest pace of sales since August 2010. The National Association of Realtors said the sales decreased 4.1% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million (consensus 3.90 million) from a downwardly revised 3.95 million (from 3.96 million) in September. Sales were down 14.6% from the same period a year ago. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.44% … Continue reading “US Existing Home Sales Fell 4.1% in October at Slowest Pace Since August 2010”

NAHB Housing Market Index Slumps Further in November Back to Lowest Since December 2022

NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index slump continues, falling for a fourth month by 6 points to 34 in November 2023, significantly below the market’s expected level of 40. The index is at its lowest point since December 2022. The fall has been swift as affordability has plummeted with high interest rates and inflation. Just back in July we saw the highest reading at 56 in this cycle and was just the second time that sentiment levels have surpassed the midpoint … Continue reading “NAHB Housing Market Index Slumps Further in November Back to Lowest Since December 2022”