November 14 – 20 2021 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Retail Sales, Chip Earnings and Inflation The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Part A: Stock markets Part B: Bonds Fed and Banks Part C: Commodities Energy – Oil and Gas Gold and Silver Part D: Foreign Exchange Geopolitics and Economics Economy Week ahead Editorial The markets shrugged off lots of land mines this … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Retail Sales, Chips and Inflation”
Futures and commodities contined to be volatile in October of 2021 as energy markets ran roughshod. The biggest gainers were safehaven elements such as precious metals silver, platinum and palladium along with foodstuffs such as grains. The weakest was VIX as you would expect with US stock indices at record highs
The EIA in their STEO expect 22% more U.S.Coal Fired Generation in 2021 over 2020. The increase is from soaring higher natural gas prices. While Coal prices have risen unabatted with supply chain disruptions globally there have risen less than gas in the US.
Coal prices have risen unabatted with supply chain disruptions, China has been partiucarlt bad hot and that just got more critical. Floods closed 60 of the 682 coal mines in Shanxi province, 30% of China’s production.
This week’s poster child in volatiity and risk is Miami-based hedge fund Statar Capital who specialise in natural gas. After being up huge in the first 10 days of this month down about 7.7 per cent for September before fees as Natural gas futures went from 4.80 to 5.60btu and back.
Chicago soybean futures fell under $13 a bushel near 35 week lows. Hurricane Ida halted traffic on the Mississippi river and caused power outages and damaged grain elevators and port terminals. Prices way up lower demand and trapped supply.
Iron ore has been a clear leader from the early days of the raw materials rally. It is also the most volatile. Volatility is fed by the ongoing trade war between the world’s biggest producer of iron ore, Australia and one of the biggest users, China.
Less than 20 years after launching the Shanghai Gold Exchange has become the world’s largest physical gold exchange. This trend is set to continue with two new futures contracts connecting CME Group gold futures to Shanghai Gold Exchange having launched in October.
The expected startup of Plains All American’s expanded Sunrise Pipeline in early November will ease constraints on the oil bottleneck in the Permian Basin adding near 500,000 bpd capacity, seeing WTI Midland’s discount collapse to just $2.50 per barrel,
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publish the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports with a breakdown of open interest for futures and options on futures markets. More specific, disaggregated reports (DCOT) came after the GFC in 2008.